Dmitry Orlov: The US Is Sleepwalking Towards A Nuclear Confrontation

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Following his cautionary analysis on the increasing tension between the US/NATO and Russia, Chris interview Dmitry Orlov this week about the potential likelihood for actual direct conflict to break out between the world powers.

Orlov was born and raised in Leningrad in the former Soviet Union and immigrated to the United States in the mid 70s, He has spent the past several decades traveling back and forth between the two countries, writing about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the many similarities he sees between that and the secular decline happening in the West. Orlov recently co-authored a stark warning with a number of other experts on Russia, concerned that the US is recklessly provoking a military confrontation it cannot win:

The United States is sleepwalking towards a nuclear confrontation with Russia. It is astounding in its stupidity this approach. What's going on is an effort by the US military and by NATO officials to extract as much money as possible out of Eastern Europe, to continue financing weapons and generally extract military spending out of Europe.

The neocons have a very stiff ideology of world domination. Basically they took over the US government because it's the largest and most vulnerable democracy in order to realize their insane dreams of world domination.

It hasn’t gone that well. But there's no convincing them. There isn’t a feedback loop from experience to what they do next. One defeat causes them to organize for the next defeat without realizing it. So they don’t realize that what they have done in the Middle East has been completely counter-productive. They don’t realize, for instance, that trying to promote democracy and secular regimes in Islamic countries doesn’t produce democracy or secular regimes – what it produces is jihadism and radicalization and things like ISIS. They can’t process that thought because their ideology says "democracy is the weapon we use". We used it successfully against the United States. Look what wonderful shape the US democracy is. It is bought and sold on the open market and we are going to do that to every country in the world.

There is no stopping them. They are like zombies. Until somebody shoots them in the head they are going to keep moving. 

Now in Russia a military drill can be called without warning at any time, and everything better work. Basically the entire military is at a high state of readiness. The US media has missed the fact that what the Russians did in Syria with a really, really small contingent is something that the US couldn’t possibly have done and NATO couldn’t possibly have done. If you look at the number of sorties and the number of strikes per unit time -- which is basically ground crews working seamlessly with pilots on rotation, jets landing, getting refueled, getting reloaded taking off continuously -- that is not something that the US is capable of at this point. This is a different military. This is not the US military. This is something completely different. And then there hasn't been much reporting about the new weapons that Russia has -- the S300, the S400 now they are rolling out the S500 which will be able to hit targets in near space and that will basically be like a giant impenetrable shield over most of Russia including all of the ballistic weapons that the US has. They also haven’t really reported on the super sonic torpedoes and cruise missiles that Russia has developed, or mention the fact that Russian nuclear subs lurking along the American western and eastern seaboards all the time on patrol armed with these caliber supersonic cruise missiles that the US has absolutely nothing to detect them with or to shoot them down -- and they can be nuclear tipped. 

Russia is ready. What is even more scary is that the Russian people are ready. There are all these groups all over Russia that do stunts like they run marathons off road. The marathons sometimes include some tactical objectives too. So this is like paramilitary training for lots and lots of young people in the country. Some of them don’t even like the government that much but that doesn’t mean that they won’t take orders if orders are given. Even if there isn’t a nuclear confrontation and NATO rolls into Russian territory they will bleed and they will bleed to death just like it has always happened with people who invaded Russia. There isn’t a happy outcome, there isn’t a face saving outcome for the United States or for NATO. There is just basically the choice between death and humiliation.

 

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Dmitry (51m:18s)

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/dmitry-orlov-the-us-is-sleepwalking-towards-a-nuclear-confrontation/

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I would hope the US military is prepared after fighting wars since 2001 onward.   And before that No Fly Zone over Iraq, etc.  If worried about fall out, move well away from the coasts as those cities including NYC will be targeted first.   I was in a restaurant the other day when the power went out unexpectedly (no storms around).  The staff had to scramble to find paper receipts and show youngers how to use them.   What if Russia knocks out a good part of the communication grid?  Is business prepared for this by falling back on manual methods?

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As I read this excellent interview I am wondering:

  • Who exactly are the Neocons?  Lets name names.
  • Where do they come from?
  • What do they want?  --deep motivation, the dream, the fears?
  • What is their organizing principles and creed? 
  • What are their organizations and think tanks?
  • Where is their HQ?
  • What is their moral developmental level?
  • Where does this antipathy towards Russia come from?
  • How did they take over the US government to the degree that they could introduce false intelligence into the US pentagon analyses and write their lies into presidential speeches?
As an INFP, I am certain that WE MUST KNOW THE SOUL of all the participants to work with them effectively.

Sun Tzu agrees: 

If you know your enemy and you know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself you will succumb in every battle.
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[quote=Wikipedia]
Neoconservatives peaked in influence during the administrations of George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush, when they played a major role in promoting and planning the 2003 invasion of Iraq.[1] Prominent neoconservatives in the George W. Bush administration included Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Elliott Abrams, Richard Perle and Paul Bremer. Senior officials Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, while not identifying as neoconservatives, listened closely to neoconservative advisers regarding foreign policy, especially the defense of Israel and the promotion of democracy in the Middle East. Neoconservatives continue to have influence in the Obama administration and neoconservative ideology has continued as a factor in American foreign policy.[2][3]

[/quote]

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Dmitry, thanks for helping to expand our worldview based on your background, experience and insights regarding Russia.  Listening to you really highlighted for me just how much our media controls and shapes our perception.   Even those of us here, at PP.com, who sincerely want to better understand what's really going on in the world, continue to discover that there is still much we "don't know we don't know".
Chris, thanks once again helping to expand our awareness on an important topic.

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There were many times I wished to interject, but this is an asymmetric communications channel.
My son is being introduced to the Russian winter by his brother in December, after his Graduation. So he will be half a world away. I find myself, not by accident, as far South as I can go.

I refuse to yield the sovereignty of my mind to any man so I am prepared to explore every rabbit hole.

SP asks who "Who are the Neocons?" I ask "What are the Neocons? " 

Here. More evidence, if you would but look. If you cannot understand their motives it is because of an incorrect assumption. You are in a Belief Trap. Nasty things, Belief Traps…

https://youtu.be/aeLyHN-ApF4

There is more that I could say on the subject but it would have to be done on back channels as it is a fact that some are unable to set aside their egos and discuss evidence calmly. (I'm not into this "trigger warning" nonsense)

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Dirtry while you have observed well, just watch last call for concessions at drive-in movie.  300-400lbs moving in all directions.  Russian marathoners don't stand a chance!   You're right we're screwed!

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https://flic.kr/p/HdNEFQ

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I felt a palpable surprise on Chris' part when Dmitry said he was heading for Russia for safety.  This interview really made me think about the false sense of security we feel in our little homebuilt cocoons.  This past weekend I made a trip out to my getaway safeplace in 'the country' to find out that my immediate neighbor had clearcut his 85 acres of forested land. New view :(, new mice and other creatures, new erosion problems are all results from this strip mining of timber. New dislike for a not so sociable neighbor. Also made me reflect on the fact that with commodities so low, he must be hurting for cash to ruin 50-75 years of established mixed forest.

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My Polish grandparents came from that vast land area, which at various times has been under control of Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, White Russia.  My grandmother spoke of surviving the back and forth movements of armies in WWI by hiding in forests and living in holes in the ground.  Almost all their relatives survived first the German then the Russian advances during WWII.  Even in the communist era, many city dwellers had their "Dachas", country homes, which ranged from palaces, to small shacks, all with vegetable gardens and small animals, chickens and ducks. Even here in the United States, my grandfather grew vegetables and fruit all his life on a city lot that was smaller than five thousand square feet.
There is a Slavic view of the world which many hand down through the generations.  "If says: if we can get back to the land we will be O.K.  We are part of the land and it is part of us." There is a related belief that we can never be completely conquered because we are the land. I am not surprised at all, that during these very unpredictable times, Dmitry feels the call to go home. Go back to the land, hunker down and let the world do its thing. Whatever issues you face in the country, they are not as bad as what you would face in a city.

I understand the motivation.  I get the best night's sleep and have the lowest blood pressure when I am at our camp in the North New England woods. When I am back in the city I can almost hear the land calling to me, telling me to give up all that silly, manic activity and to come back to "reality" and its simplicity.

JT

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Pattons quotes below at the end of WW2 - his prediction may come true
I believe that Germany should not be destroyed, but rather should be re-built as a buffer against the real danger, which is Russia and it's bolshevism.

I'll say this, the Third Army alone with very little help and with damned few casualties, could lick what is left of the Russians in six weeks. You mark my words. Don't ever forget them. Someday we will have to fight them and it will take six years and cost us six million lives.

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settled… great!

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You didn't mention the French.
What! Is Napoleon chopped liver to you? Greatest General of all time. That goes for the guy quoting Patton, especially. With nuts like that still being quoted as experts it's no wonder the russians have such a "bad attitude"

BTW: My heritage is closely aligned with yours. Have you done the gene test to see how many of these HALOtypes are mixed in to your DNA? You will be surprised.

I might be a litvak, pending confirmation of a certain French jewish officer and a Napoleonic"hookup". I can't eat blintzes without a ton of butter on them, sure sign.

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Good point about recycling during an emergency:
When dropping a microwave oven on a zombie's head, tie a rope to it first so you can reel it back in. In a post-apocalyptic world, it's even more important to recycle.

http://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=216&doc_id=1328401

Let's face it. I've fully absorbed the views of climatologist Guy McPherson so maybe I've had too much kool Aid but given what McPerson and Orlov are saying the most important thing we can do as individuals is be as loving as possible, don't scare people un-conscientiously (creates resistance), and laugh as much as possible while we still can. Happiness might actually work if enough people get some and if not, it feels good.

Looking out my west window these days I see mil (Sikorsky heavy) flying up and down the Hudson more often then ever before. That includes circa 2001. With that kind of security why would I rely on a shot gun in the woods?

I prefer a bright flash to an raw vegan diet any day.

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...they are rolling out the S500 which will be able to hit targets in near space and that will basically be like a giant impenetrable shield over most of Russia including all of the ballistic weapons that the US has.
In a word - no.  It won't be an impenetrable shield over most of Russia.  There will be 5 batteries, of 2 launchers per battery, and this will be deployed around Moscow.  So if "most of Russia" means near Moscow, and "impenetrable shield" means "hopefully it stops the warheads from 10 missiles with a 100% hit rate", then I agree.

Since the sub force alone has 2600 warheads on 336 missiles, its just not mathematically possible.

Mr Orlov's other points may be valid, and I see no profit at all in poking the bear, but he's just engaging in fantasy with Russia's BMD.  Which will only start to appear in 2017, assuming the schedule doesn't slip again, with full capability sometime in 2020.  If the schedule doesn't slip again.

So right now instead of an impenetrable shield, Russia has a deployment schedule on paper.  And even full deployment, it would be about as useful as a lightweight umbrella during a hurricane.

Vs Korea or Iran, it would be a winner.  But not until in 2020.  Assuming the schedule doesn't slip.

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Seriously guys, talking about weaponry based on what we've read or heard of through open sources is ridiculous. Plasma weapons don't have a problem with flying projectiles. Throwing shit is so–caveWo/man.
neo-Feminism, now that scares me.

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Wikileaks exposé.
 

https://youtu.be/giPOGLacPZY

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I enjoyed the podcast, but it would be helpful for us to stick with facts instead of hyperbole and just throwing accusations out there. When I was out in Hawaii about 10 years ago I visited pearl harbor. In the background was this HUGE thing that looked like an egg perched on giant platform sitting about 200 feet above the ocean. After touring pearl harbor we made our way over to an old battleship where Japan surrendered to the allies that was restored and docked in port. I was asking everyone I could about this huge egg looking thing and was told it was a radar system, the U.S. has 3 of them, and this one was fully self-contained and would eventually be towed up to Alaska where it would be put into use. I couldn't remember what it was called, but did some searching and it's called the Sea-Based X-Band Radar-1 (SBX-1). When I was asking around the guys told me it could track an object the size of a baseball from D.C. to San Francisco, across the entire country. I'm not sure if that's true or hyperbole, but it sounds about as ostantatious as some of the stuff Dmitry was claiming Russia has. 
I completely agree with everything that was said about the Neocons being insane and not learning from the recent failures and all of that, but he makes it sound like Russia is going to skate by the U.S. without a scratch. Not sure if that's an honest assessment or if he just got carried away with what he was saying, but I find that highly doubtful. 

Here's a link to a Wiki page about the thing - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea-based_X-band_Radar

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I'm not saying anything to deny the reality of the ill-advised and very dangerous tensions that have developed  between Russia and the US, but let's all remember everything we're talking about now was MUCH worse in the '60's.  Surveillance hijinks? Check. Scary sounding military maneuvers near and toward borders? Check. Ostentatious announcements of magically superior weapons systems deployed or being deployed any day now? Check. Testosterone-fueled threat displays on land, sea and air? Check.  Major military maneuvers and readiness drills, including nuclear forces? Check.  And back in the '60's people actually got killed and captured by the other side and extremely expensive equipment was lost or destroyed.  We've had none of that yet this time. Mutually Assured Destruction kept everyone's fingers off the buttons, barely.  In my mind I have some bright red lines which, if they are crossed, will cause me to flee from Philadelphia.  But what's going on now isn't even close.  Everything I've seen and heard so far I've categorized as Kabuki theater: dramatic statements, movements and stunts meant to sculpt public opinion and boost military budgets on both sides.
I grew up on US Air Force bases in the 60's (Strategic Air Command: B-52's and fighter/interceptors on constant alert on the runways and in the air on combat patrol 24/7).  If you want to see a stunt, watch two fighter/interceptors take off on the same runway at the same time wingtip to wingtip.  If you want an ominous feeling that something really bad is about to happen, wait until you see everyone in a tactical unit on a base (100's of personnel) get an unexpected call in the middle of the night and all the Air Force dads (and some moms I guess today), leave home in less than an hour with a big duffle bag without a word about where they're going or when they'll be back.  That happened three times at my house and one of those was the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Perhaps more scary is that my father never told me what the other two were about.  We're no where near that level of readiness and tempo of activity now.  HOWEVER, that's no guarantee that even at this low intensity level an accident or serious miscalculation might still trigger an apocalypse.  That could happen (and the same thing almost did happen a number of times in the 60's).  

But I'm staying put in the big city for now.  I'm more interested in when the other shoe is going to drop economically.

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 First off, I want to make it clear that I like Mr. Orlov, and I sincerely believe if he were able, (though it would probably require his being forced by circumstances via events beyond his control) to know me, a bond of mutual respect and friendship would result. Let's assume that when I claim the word difficult        applies to me in regards to social intercourse on multiple levels, it's written in stone. However, to help the reader along with that premise, it's necessary that I elaborate a bit. I am a self educated, have no academic credentials, have no respect for authority, I am opinionated, have a big mouth, (that use to be a lot worse) I am smarter than most people, and far better informed on the human condition as opposed to almost everyone in America. I have had four jury trials, and would have had five jury trials in my 57 year existence, if after 11 jurors were picked the last time at bat, there were any jurors left in that days jury pools, both in the civil and criminal judicial divisions. I am a social outcast, tainted, have been to prison three times in two states, and to almost all of American society, a sure loss of social status to anyone that would befriend me. I live alone, and have no social life to speak of. I have no friends to socialize with, nor do I seek social intercourse outside the realm of commerce, and aside from an occasional comment such as the one I am writing now, I don't share much of what is in my mind. But, aside from my self exile, I am a social animal and a philosopher, so let's employ analogy and thought experiments, the only philosopher stone that ever existed, and you judge the veracity of the premise.
I am a Baboon in a Chimpanzee world. I know all about Chimps, but they don't know anything about me. Why would they? Their is no status to be gained, therefore no effort expended beyond what is nominal for the sake of curiosity, novelty, or entertainment is justified. None of the chimps in Chimp World know I'm a Baboon. How could they? They never saw a Baboon, nor could they ever imagine that one existed. They certainly couldn't tell me I was a Baboon, and my being the only Baboon, how would I ever discern I was a Baboon, rather than a really weird Chimp, as I certainly was relative to them? 

Baboons are social tribal animals, and to a Martian (or Humpty Dumpty to anyone that read Lewis Carroll's Through The Looking Glass) they would appear as identical in nature and physical features as we would find male and female penguins in Antarctica.

One of the many, and one of the most critical failings of Westernized Homo Sapiens, is that they have no idea who and what they are. We are tribal animals that have inherent to/with our social nature "hardware" designed through evolution to operate rudimentary behavioral programs, much of which is beyond our conscious awareness, and specifically designed through the process of evolution to remain hidden from our conscious minds. The quest and/or desire to gain and maintain status is as involentary a function of the human mind as the human minds function to create the illusion of movement every time we watch 30 still/static images flashed per second on a video screen/monitor and see "moving pictures." Watching a light move in a circle around the perimeter of a billboard sign is in an illusion of movement. One light flashing on then off, each flash one after the other, progressing in sequential order around the sign creates the illusion of movement, but the reality is that the light is not moving at all.

Homo sapiens are designed to believe lies. Self deception is critical to the survival of our species. it doesn't matter one iota if this fact is understood by you, your friends , and peers. If it is known or not, believed or not, accepted or not, is as irrelevant as a fish on the moon. There is no relevance what so ever if you, me, everyone, or nobody thinks so. Read that again. You and me and everything you know and think, everything that is and is not, is irrelevant outside of the illusion of purpose that takes place in the space between our ears. 

Humanity, our species, is the only species that can contemplate the nature of the universe that we are a part of. No other animal can question the creation of the universe, that there is a universe, have some understanding that it exists at all, how it works, it's purpose and ours, what it all means, and if our earth is the only place where there is life, or if we are the only intelligent life are the questions we ask. Asking the questions makes us great.

Heres a News Flash: Circular logic, Having your cake and eating it too, Consumer economies aren't parasitic economies, and the systemic cultural insanity to believe absurdities that in the future, (if humanity has one that can manage to attain the level of advanced barbarism we now call civilization) were it then possible a 21st century psychopath, cryogenicly preserved and restored to life were asked to explain what went wrong, the shame would drive the monster to suicide.  

Now to Mr. Orlov's premis that the Neocons, stupid dolts like Hillary, the rest of the freak show that are currently on the world political stage, and the like are fools. I am an intelligent man. I am not deceived by chromic liars or susceptible to subjective reasoning. Their are no other baboons to draw the measure of my worth, no bar or benchmark relevant in Chimp World, only me striving all my life in desperation to maintain an anchor to reality in order to know who I am.

The people that dictate American Foreign policy are the Foolers. Those that rule empires do so by fooling everyone else. They, the tiny minority are the Foolers, and everyone else are the fooled, and Dimitri is one of the fooled. The Controllers of the American Empire are desperate to maintain control. If America can not destabilize Russia and neutralize it as a threat against America's control/hegemony of the remaining conventional oil reserves of the world, America will end. Be no more. It's population liquidated. America as it exists is a parasite the world can not afford. The American population can not survive without depriving the rest of the world the 20 million bpd it uses now, or squeezing China to produce what American capitalism requires to be squandered, in order to stroke the ego's of psychopaths.It may not remain at 20 million bpd, and it may be less right now, but cascading system failure is as certain as entropy at some point. 

In 2008 the Governor of PA tried to sell the PA Turnpike. Illinois I remember had already sold one of its toll roads. I think I remember a State Lottery also being sold to foreigners back then. I wonder what all those secret trade deals are about? I wonder if there will be secret interpretations, or just plain secret clauses that nobody will know about until they are enacted? Secret interpretations of the Patriot Act remember? The people that run the empire have been in bed with enemy collaborators all over the planet for generations. 

Here's a reality check. A prostitute is no less moral than the person purchasing the prostitutes service. The seller is no worse than the buyer, and the whole fraud started with the "Pillars Of The Community" that wanted to have their cake and eat it too. If anything they were far more immoral than the women in the brothels they frequented because it was they that were the fat spoiled rich assholes that demonized and stigmatizing unfortunate woman, relegating them to a life of misery. The same applies with informants and police, puppet masters and puppets. The Controllers of Saddam Hussein right here in America, Donald Rumsfeld for one, are a far greater caliber of monster than the subservient monster which does the dominant monsters bidding.  

The empires controllers, if they see they have no choice, that to maintain their privileges, even if not all of them, because wealth is all relative to your peers, will collaborate with Americas creditors or anyone that has maintained the creditability to get shit done, as in provide tangible necessary life supporting things  where they are needed. If iquidating two or three hundred million Americans is what it takes, then they will liquidate them because it had to be done. Make no mistake, it has to be done. That is what unsustainable means, just like what collateral damage means.

Any dirty trick I can think up that would benefit them, they have already thought of it. If they can get away with it, they are doing it already, or are in the process of implementing it. I am an intelligent man, but I know the people running the empire are a lot smarter than I am, and are far better practiced in, and adept at, thinking in Machiavelliian terms than I am. I also know people like Mr. Martenson, that I know are more intelligent than I am, are mere babes in the woods when it comes to these aspects of behavior by our masters.