We live in a post-truth world. Unfortunately, this really complicated the already complicated subject of investing. I mean it’s hard enough already, right?
But our official statistics aren’t even remotely correct. Inflation and Jobs are two sets of numbers the US government routinely fibs about.
And the Federal Reserve spends far too much time trying to keep stocks and bonds at inflated values. Those efforts at central planning will end the same as they always do; rubbished on a heap of unintended consequences.
Still, this is the game and we have to play.
Join Chris and Paul for another podcast covering the financial news of the week.
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I am about ready to say, “fuck it!” and encourage the Biden administration to go “full Weimar” by forgiving my mortgage loan. It is now hard for me to believe that the destruction of our productivity is not intentional.
I have to give a shout out to Chris for what he said at the 55:00 to 57:00 mark. I have enormous respect for anyone that worked a “blue collar” job for at least a few years in their life.
Many people are shocked when I tell them that I made more money as a blue-collar operator at a nuke plant. I still have my IBEW 245 card as a trinket to remind myself of those days. I eventually earned a part 55 license as a reactor operator from the NRC. This license was required to stand watch in the control room. This was a less physical job. When not standing watch in the control room, I was expected to lead complex evolutions in the plant. I still got my hands on those hand wheels to show the others that I was not the weakest one on the shift.
Chris is probably being polite about what men say to each other when working a physically demanding job. We had “valve parties” at the power plant when system lineups were being changed. Some of these valve lineups had some large valves and required two people to operate. Most of the spare union operators (licensed and non-licensed) would go out on the job and take turns on the valve hand wheels. When an operator was not on a valve, they were screaming obscenities like “you pussy! Is that all you have?” to the operators on the valve. Good times!
The plant that I worked at tried hiring females to be non-licensed operators, but they never lasted long. There was one case where a female operator ended up sleeping around and getting many men at the plant in trouble. The females simply did not have the physical strength to do all of the jobs.
I now have a “white collar” job that pays well, but it will never match what I made as an operator. Many of the people that push these stupid ideas of “equity” have no clue how the real-world works. Things are starting to get better. The “trad-wife” movement is starting to grow in popularity.
Weird. Earlier in the day, after pruning mesquite, I decided to surf the net for a while, and ended up studying Shiller’s CAPE, which led me to the Buffet Indicator, then I ran across a clip of Hugh Hendry discussing the gazillions of funny bucks about ready to come home to the USA to chase ‘assets’ into a blowoff top. Then the above discussion between Chris and Paul sounding almost Deja Vu? Interesting chain of connections here.
Thanks for another interesting discussion with Paul as we wade through a post-truth world…
Chris suggests that maybe fundamentals will matter again. From conversation with Kevin McElroy yesterday, it sounds like they still do matter in commercial real estate world. For crucial commodities, it would seem that growing demand exceeding supply would have to spike prices at some point. When?
Re Paul’s comment early in discussion, I wonder if it may not be true that median price of single family homes being affordable for only 30% of population necessarily puts pressure on wages to go up and/or home prices to come down. What if instead, Black Rock/Wall Street and investor class continue to buy up single family homes keeping prices high and out of reach, and which coincidentally helps WEF achieve 2030 goal of “you’ll own nothing”? I’m not sure about the “and be happy” part - I reckon AI/virtual reality and regular dosing with somas a la Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, or maybe weed for the masses.
Was squeezing and forcing closure of mom & pop independent businesses during Covid an unintended consequence of bad policy or a feature? It sure makes it easier to control folks through the few remaining mega-corporations whose CEOs may get invites to Davos.
Re investing picking the top – I went defensive a few years ago, took some profits mostly in tech, bought some gold, energy, and floating bonds. I’ve missed the rebound and underestimated the power of booming Biden-nomics economy where there’s Beyond Meat in every pot and a Tesla in every driveway (ignore the fed’s market manipulation and money printing). I know something has to break at some point, surely long before 2034, and seems like it will likely be bad. But I don’t don’t understand nor know how to play the game and know I need professional help managing investments. I appreciate Paul’s sentiment (apologies if I’ve misinterpreted) something to effect of don’t have to like or agree with how the game is played but you have to accept it at some level and try to be smart to not get caught and burned when it goes south.
Chris, I never get tired of hearing the principles of our Foundering Fathers for writing the Declaration of Independence. Freedom, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
I would like to hear a discussion about the idea of “Separation of State and Economics”. Which is more than ending the Federal Reserve and Debt based money supply. It is taking the “power of the purse” from Congress, and installing a true “free market, laissez faire” economy.
There is much more I can say on this subject but I am limited on time this morning. Would be happy to contribute more thoughts on this subject, if there is an interest from you or from this group.
My first comment and questions. So here goes.
My readings and interactions here on precious metals and commodities such as oil, uranium and copper among others are in alignment with your supply demand comment . I have about 10% of my portfolio in physical assets. There is a compelling case for some stocks in these businesses. I also know from history that when the overall market crashes, virtually nothing is safe, including precious metals and other commodities.
The question I am wrestling with is in the face of supply demand constraints and very likely higher prices for the underlying commodities, are these stocks still going to be:
Caught in the downdraft - Probably yes.
How much - I have no clue, the same as the rest as the overall market, more or less.
How long - I have no clue. Will they bounce back because the supply demand balance and rising underlying commodity prices will put a “firm” floor or is that wishful thinking.
I follow several, what I think are extremely credible sources including Chris, and they all talk about owning “physical assets” but rarely put any emphasis on the individual stock which is where all the leverage happens, the Great Taking notwithstanding. Do you wait until the crash, 1 month, 1 year, 3 years from now and then get in at the “bottom”.
I hope I am not the only one in this state of confusion. Any thoughts?
I completely understand your predicament, although I was not expecting specific stock advice simply whether these commodity stocks could be “sheltered” by a potential downdraft in the overall stock market due to the likely pressure on increasing prices of the underlying commodities from the supply/demand imbalance. In any event, thank your for taking the time to personally welcome me aboard and your comment was still very helpful. I truly appreciate everything you do.
Keep up your great work.
Thanks…AL
I suspect this is the case as well. The first step to control is to destroy our productivity and ability to provide for ourselves.
This is partly why Covid lockdowns were allowed to shutdown small businesses that were owned by individuals. Kill the economy, productivity and the ability for people to take care of themselves, would cause the majority of people to beg for a solution. This is when the control is lost.