2014 saw the extension of a historic drought across the US West. Croplands withered or were fully abandoned. Water rationing was enforced. Well tables dropped. The price of many vegetables and meats have skyrocketed.
But the past month has seen a welcome set of rain systems arrive along the Pacific coast. As a result, some regions like northern California are currently at 140% of rainfall vs the typical year. To drive home why this is such an important topic for everyone to follow, the table below shows how critical California's agricultural output is to feeding the rest of America:
The short answer is 'no'. And were not close to it (yet). Much will depend on the rainfall levels over the next three months, and how much of that accumulates as snow pack.
To explore this important issue in depth, we welcome Doug Parker, the Director of the California Institute for Water Resources, as well as the Strategic Initiative Leader for the UC Agriculture and Natural Resources Water Quality Quantity and Securities Strategic Initiative.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Doug Parker (27m:58s)
Aloha! Mahalo for the report on the California water crisis. I always like a visual guide. Here is a link to an actual fly over of two of the largest California reservoirs being in Northern California at Shasta and Trinity. The water level looks dire indeed and it seems the last water crisis of this magnitude was 1976/1977. It looks as if the amount of rainfall and snow pack to refill these lakes back to more normal conditions is near impossible in the short run.
This fly over was just two months ago in October …
California may be our drought epicenter but it is not alone. Lake Mead which supports Las Vegas among other places in Nevada, Arizona and California has been lower than any time since they first filled it. Thankfully it has gone up 6 ft since the rains began but it is a long way from full.
Down in Sao Paulo Brazil, the recent rains have raised water levels in the Cantareira reservoir system for the first time in 8 months. Water levels increased from 6.7% all the way to 7.0% of capacity. I guess that they feel lucky because they still don't have water rationing for the 6.5 million people who depend on this water. However, the government will now impose fines (starting in 2015) if anyone increases their water consumption in an unjustified manner!
Desalination. What is the energy to water ratio expressed in kg (carbon)/ cu meters water?
Privatization. What is to prevent a big player, say Goldman Sax as an example, paying off legislators to pass laws enabling a monopoly on the water supply? I could see issues there.
The Great plains. I learned at University that the annual rainfall has varied over recent geological past. There is evidence in peat bog layers of the Great plains swinging between desert and forest. It would have interesting consequences to world grain supply if we lost the Great Plains wheat . (Even Ignoring the 10 units of oil energy to 1 unit of food energy ratio) This issue is related via the Climate Catastrophe to the carbon/water desal ratio above.. How are we going to keep producing food if the surface rainfall fails?
I could imagine buying some cheap desert land and using the money saved to install one of these items as a stand alone water supply with the house being built over the underground water storage tank. The water could then double as a heat sink and source for air conditioning. A source of heat in the winter and a sink of heat in the summer.
The house would be freeform printed using bioconcrete. Cheap and very little CO2 emissions. It would also support a cover of moss, both for looks and to keep the place livable.
There have been several droughts in the Great Plains, with the 1950s and the Dust Bowl years being the most recent examples, but these were trivial compared to the drought state for the region which existed prior to 1200.
This figure is from Moon Lake in North Dakota (wheat belt). The red areas are extreme drought periods when the lake was more saline and supported different diatoms. Currently, the eastern Dakotas are getting wetter, not drier, but if we shift climate modes this could certainly change, and abruptly.
The southwest and California are currently the areas of greatest concern for drought not only because they are dry now but also because virtually all climate models project continued drying for this region. As mentioned by Doug Parker, this doesn't mean that there won't be some wet years in the mix, just that they will be outweighed by the dry years overall. There have been also been historic droughts of several decades across all of the American Breadbasket. See figures 7 & 8 in this paper (link). What we think of as 'normal' has actually been quite wet, historically speaking.
This doesn't mean that climate change will necessarily lead to massive drought states any time soon (though it could given the chaotic nature of climate), but some regions are at great risk of having to dramatically readjust their expectations of regional water budgets. You cannot sustainably maintain 'rights' to water that doesn't exist.
The quality of governance in the world is reflected in just how badly the water situation is being managed in the south west USA.
Like Steven Hawking suggests: how can you believe in conspiracy theories when the governments, supposedly conspiring with such finesse that we can prove nothing, find it so difficult to govern the fundamental needs of society.
We seem to be in the peak of a culture of irresponsible government, I guess its part of the "corruption" that inevitably creeps into empire. All we can do is sit back and watch it fall, decline or rot into anarchy.
Good job humans, no wonder we've never made contact with other alien life in the galaxy.
Old saying in the West: "Whisky's fer drinkin', water's fer fightin' over." Mismanagement of water resources is hardly a new thing.
A good resource book for California is Dorothy Green's "Managing Water – Avoiding Crisis in California", published 2007. She tends to put a brave face on the prospects, but gives good insight into many aspects of the situation.
We seem to be in the peak of a culture of irresponsible government, I guess its part of the "corruption" that inevitably creeps into empire. All we can do is sit back and watch it fall, decline or rot into anarchy.
Nail on the head pgp! We seem to have so many peak things in the 3E's that it would be easy to coin a new phrase as you have said and simply refer to it all as "Peak Cultural Irresponsibility". And you are correct, all we can do is sit back and watch it fall, while doing our utmost to mitigate the risks as best as we can on the personal level.
Good job humans, no wonder we've never made contact with other alien life in the galaxy.
I surmise it is the opposite pgp. I can well imagine alien life looking at our planet from afar and wondering to themselves "why are they all shitting in their own beds, polluting their own food and water, and killing each other in their quest to acquire the biggest pile of meaningless crap, especially those little pieces of paper they call money?" I think it is safe to say that our planet has been crossed off the list of any interstellar mergers, acquisitions or hostile takeovers. Heck, even the Borg probably don't want us!
Can no one marginalize themselves as I have apparently done and point out the obvious stratospheric aerosol campaign as a clear contributor to the doubt situation. I'm mean shiiiiit. Is it really that important not to seem outside the box and ignore the biggest elephant ever, in the room? I'm living in the frickin twilight zone. Im 100% on this. Good luck everyone
Can no one marginalize themselves as I have apparently done and point out the obvious stratospheric aerosol campaign as a clear contributor to the doubt situation. I'm mean shiiiiit. Is it really that important not to seem outside the box and ignore the biggest elephant ever, in the room? I'm living in the frickin twilight zone. Im 100% on this. Good luck everyone
