Karen - my understanding is that flattening the curve means the same number of people will get it in the end, but it slows the process down so that the health care system can cope with it, and you won’t lose more people to an overstretched system, not to mention losses to other issues that are set aside because of overload. That’s it - not that anyone gets sicker. Just slows it down. If there’s more to it than that, I’ll be interested to hear too.
Yes, the object is to slow the process down. We may eventually learn more , or find treatments or develop vaccines as well during the flattening that will spare people negative out-comes ( now including permanent lung and other organ damage ) So , there are a lot of reason to do it besides over-whelming the medical system which not only has the impact of killing more by covid-19 but it will increase the death rate of all causes.
To be clear, I shared the factors contributing to the South’s rising case/death numbers to summarize key co-morbidities mentioned in the article and as a courtesy to readers who may not have a subscription to The Economist. The hard realities I listed are not my own preconceived opinions about my home region.
I did, however, slip up in my parenthetical comment. Please excuse me. I had just read that the Lt. Governor of Texas wants to cut loose 30 million people in the middle of a pandemic, including my dear friends in Houston, all of whom are seniors. He said, “There are more important things than living,” including, presumably, having folks I love die alone and in agony just to goose the economy. Hard to edit prudently through the red mist. Mea culpa.
Thanks for the reply about flattening the curve.
I see a fair number of people at retailers are striking because they don’t want to get the virus. And I get that. But I think if you are an average person working, at some point you will get it. Which is gonna suck, but I can’t stay home.
(LOL, Lawyers are stirring the pot with this. I had an advertisement on FB directed at Amazon workers to sue for having to go to work. I consider myself to be blessed to have a job.)
and soy…. LindaYou watch Bill Maher, right? Not a problem. We currently produce enough animal feed crops in the US to feed 11 billion people, assuming they could eat what we grow, not. If we stop eating meat and dairy, we simply switch from growing animal feed to soy and other human fare. Win-win.
I do not think people who work at warehouses as stockers, pickers, packers etc… are at a huge risk, they are getting infected , but they do not need to. This is an environment where people can easily maintain distance. Also, they can wear ppe - a mask and gloves will go a long way there… AND not touching the face and nose … Declothing at the door when getting home, and showering immediately… Avoid drinking or eating while working. It is possible to eat, just make sure to wash hands well and you should be nuking or eating hot cooked foods… and you should be ok. without issues… its not like you have to deal with customers or others… you are really just touching lots of handled items. - should not be hazardous with ppe. and easy hygeine. I do not see this work as having to close… or do anything special… just masks and distancing and hand washing and shower and clothing decontam at your home … it would be wise to park car in sun… where it can hot for several hours a day. or by ozone light and hit the car every few days. dont rub eyes , pick nose etc while driving.
Lets review.
Alaska = 738,432 people - for the entire state which is quite a bit bigger than Texas. Sorry bout that.
Covid-19 deaths = 9 of or with the virus I don’t know the details. 1 was out of state but was an AK resident. Certainly numbers may still fluctuate.
Our Governor mandated quarantine for all air travelers even before we had any cases. So kudos for that!
On a personal note I asked my kids if they know of anyone who has received a stimulus check yet. Answer no. Unemployment yes, but we don’t know anyone who has received one.
Do you? Anyone?
If this is in fact true , that makes the argument for getting the BCG Vaccine even stronger. this may push me to the edge to that… My wife has this from her home country… so atleast one of is protected ,., to care for our young daughter if things go bad,
I received a direct deposit on April 15th. It wasn’t much because of my salary but I did get it.
Now, I did file my taxes on February 21st. I believe that’s the order they are doing things in. Neither my son or fiance have received their stimulus money yet.
We did my sons taxes on 4/8 and he just received his refund today.
23% hit in value…
Good thing I wasn’t planing on retiring soon…
The main reason for flattening the curve is to keep the hospitals from getting overloaded. As stated it also serves to buy us time for a vaccine (a remote possibility), a treatment approved by big gubmint created by big pharma to line their pockets on human suffering.
I had a visit with my cardiologist last week for my yearly. Every thing was fine so we spent 30 minutes talking about the virus. Very interesting. I asked him about HCQ. He said they don’t have enough data. (There will never be enough data). So I immediately said " So what else ya got?) He immediately asked if I wanted a scrip for it. I said no since I am awaiting the arrival of it from India. The thing of interest in terms of the curve is he said “We will all rub elbows with it” I believe this statement to be absolutely true.
Staying home at this point seems like a nice vacation for a lot of people at the moment but what happens in one month? two? three? 6 months a year? or beyond?
The disgrace of the way the controllers have handled this is going to have ramifications for decades to come. It is past time for these people to get their shit together. There is still no alcohol. really? this is supposed to be the greatest country in the world. We cranked out ships, planes, tanks, guns ammo. etc in no time in the 1940’s. WE can’t produce alcohol? People are making masks at home with shop towels. really? 3 M is a Fortune 500 company. They can’t supply masks? Nurses and doctors are wearing trash bags because of a shortage of gowns. really? I could go on but I know the choir is well aware of all of this.
The USA is a goddamned global embarrassment.
The curve aint the only thing that needs flattening.
In relation to this Mayor DeBlasio of NYC said in a speech that NYC cannot rely on anyone else for help. NYC has to take command of its own needs. It needs to manufacture and stockpile its own critical supplies. Finally someone who has figured out that you are on your own and IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY.
Yes, I know three people in Vermont who received stimulus checks last week.
I am an technician/electrician at my warehouse, so I don’t have to touch any product. We are required to wear masks, but I admit I am human. You want to pull off your mask when you talk to somebody, which then defeats the purpose of the mask, lol. And we have to disinfect all tools we share.
I have decided to just try to have fun. I enjoy it being busy and wear a ton of glitter on my eyes to keep the mood light.
Have fun, take my time, be safe and remember don’t take life to seriously. None of us get out alive.
Les,
Nope, don’t watch Bill Maher. I’ve watched some documentaries, read some books, especially “The Whole Soy Story: The Dark Side of America’s Favorite Health Food” by Kaayla Daniel, and articles (some online) about soy being one of the crops (in addition to corn) being used in processed foods (an alarming amount of foods have some form of soy in the ingredient list). Because both are so prevalent in processed foods, a lot of people are developing allergies or sensitivities.
http://www.choosingvoluntarysimplicity.com/living-with-a-soy-allergy/
I don’t consider growing more soy for people a win-win. I happen to be one of the people sensitive to soy. Years ago I was a LOT more sensitive, and drastically cut it from my diet, so I check ingredients lists.
I have cut back on meat, and when I do eat meat, it’s grass-fed meats which are much better for the environment and our bodies especially since it has a healthier ratio of fats. A lot of ranchers are moving towards producing grass-fed meats under several names, and here are some book titles:
Holistic Management: a New Framework for Decision Making" by Allan Savory, “Restoration Agriculture: Real-World Permaculture for Farmers” by Mark Shepard, “Grass-Fed Nation: Getting Back the Food We Deserve” by Graham Harvey, “Cows Save the Planet: and other Improbable Ways of Restoring Soil to Heal the Earth” by Judith Schwartz, “Growing a Revolution: Bringing Our Soil back to Life” by David Montgomery, “The Soil will save us: How Scientists, Farmers, and Foodies are Healing the Soil to Save the Planet” by Kristin Ohlson, “Defending Beef: the Case for Sustainable Meat Production” by Nicolette Hahn Niman (and I know the word sustainable is an oxymoron and has been green-washed), and “Meat: a Benign Extravagance” by Simon Fairlie.
I’ve also reduced my consumption of dairy, I do eat yogurt, butter (with milk from grass-fed cows), some cheese and cottage cheese, and some half & half for my coffee.
Linda
I see Chris still busily cherrypicking data, excoriating strawmen, making “facts” up out of thin air, and engaging in just about every logical fallacy in the book.
Cheered on of course by nordicjack, who I assume is on the payroll of somebody’s government.
Early on I think it was easy to buy into the cleverly seeded propaganda - although perhaps I am merely making excuses since I did it myself. But it’s been obvious for a long time ago that this virus’ virulence is in the ballpark of a bad 'flu. And it gets more and more obvious every day as the data from all over the world continue to pour in, hospitals sit empty, and the death counts remain at a small fraction of all the studies Chris touted along the way like some modern day pied piper.
Oh my… People saying there is nothing to worry about by getting angry. When has anybody ever changed their mind on the internet with negative energy? I may not always agree with everything, but I only have positive vibes to send out. Fighting only makes things worse. Love you guys by the way!
Ok. Those were not your words, they were from some other source. They painted the South as some ignorant, backward region where most of them are ya know, bubbas. But honestly I’d rather live in the South than anywhere else. People are genuine, care about their neighbors, love the land and respect liberty. If this part of the country is so bad why is it the fastest growing region? The person or persons who wrote that article are badly misinformed.
Mohammed man
You stated many things about how the USA is a goddamn global embarrassment and 3M cant supply masks and NYC has to do things by itself etc etc
This is what the end of empire feels like. No time to lament the lost empire and expended civilization. It’s over man.
Each one of us is a wealth creator and we will rebuild a better world, starting with small locavore communities that have local production of not only food but energy, water, basic medical care, education, defense, and all the rest. I hope to hear of your efforts and small steps taken to become independent of the rotten, decomposing matrix.
Facts are facts… Texas is the second most populous state and only has 19 deaths per million. California 36… New York 1037…New Jersey 570…Massachusetts 319…
I guess we are just ignorant hillbillies… but we must be doing something right.
Well somebody put a burr under your saddle today. Glad you could check in and straighten things out around here.
I for one always appreciate a different perspective. I am usually the only one that has one. Yeah I agree (well sorta) Chris does tend to get wrapped up in data. Not sure about the cherry picking part though. I found that part of your post interesting. I was wondering if you might give examples of what data was “cherry picked”. Since you have made that claim I assume you have accurate data that is not "cherry picked "to support your allegations. Please share them for us so that we may be as well informed as you.
You said this is nothing more than a bad flu. Can you define bad flu for us? Is it based on number of total cases (worldwide? US?) , total hospitalizations, total deaths? Does a bad flu require intubation? Does a bad flu cause damage to virtually every organ in the body? Does a bad flu have a R0 of over 2?
I look forward to your answers. This site mostly relies on data. IE. the best available data. I will acknowledge that there is a lot of data still unknown, this is after all a “novel” virus, whereas the flu virus is a pretty well known commodity with slight mutations from year to year.
Generally there are 3.5 million flu cases in a typical year. It is estimated that 290k to 650k die every year.Now that is a pretty wide range and a bad year is 650k or if you are one of those to die. The flu season runs from early fall to late spring. Let’s say 8 months. It dies out in the summer to be replaced in early fall with the next flu season. Does the SARS COV 2 behave the same way? The SARS COV 2 just got started in December in China and the first case in the US was Jan. 21. According to my calculations the flu had a 4 month head start on SARS COV 2. As of today according to Worldometer, the current number of cases is 2,632,532 with 183,866 deaths. The US has gone from 1 case at the end of Jan to 846,294. That is in just three months with all 50 states in various stages of lockdowns and sheltering in place.Also in that same three months the US has had 47,524 deaths. Now I think you would have to concede that going from 1 to 846,294 in three months is some kind of phenomenal exponential growth that would seem to indicate that this is some kind of virulence that the flu has never seen.
I have no data to back up my belief (not possible to ascertain) but social distancing, wearing masks, lock downs and sheltering in place have had a pretty big impact on the numbers and cfr. It would seem logical , to me at least that if those measures were put in place during flu season there would be no "bad " flu season.
All that being said, I am not here to defend Chris in the least but am fascinated by your assertions and what logic and sources you used to arrive at your conclusions. I anxiously and respectfully await your reply