Yes, definitely, slow motion.
I think the one thing omitted is possible unrest in the Middle East. It seems to me if the flow of oil were cut off from say, Saudi Arabia, the cost of oil could soar. Add in another country or two and who knows how high it could go. Of course then we have all sorts of other problems.
"Things are getting Better and Better, Worse and Worse…Faster and Faster" — this is the evolutionary perceptive I attempt to hold, Good News/Bad News (varying perceptives) is seemingly the Dialectic of Progress… where the "problems" at one level of Consciousness/Worldview are "solved" at the next level … only to have their own "problems" and so forth…
Strangely enough 13.8 billions years of evolution (cosmic, biological, Culture and consciousness) have "miraculously" brought us to this moment… yes we are amidst the 6th great extinction… but the first time any being is even conscious of it!! (Jefferson was looking for mammoths and dinosaurs in Lewis and Clark expeditions … for extinction wasn't even thought of!) more amazing with 99.99% of all Life having gone extinct… we are still here with untold diversity… Jim Morrison said it best "none gets out alive" and in a few billion years it will appear as if nothing exisited …and all of this is OK (hey why argue with Reality)
I've been a student of Integral Theory for many years … perhaps the most comprehensive Map of Reality… (and if you're going to make a "prison break" (from paradigms, etc)… it pays to have the best map"
TreeBeard makes some valid points… We need an sense of urgency… without anxiety… we have to act or lead from the Future ( i tried to post to this free EDx Course
U.Lab: Transforming Business, Society, and Self
Learn how to create profound innovation in a time of disruptive change by leading from the emerging future.https://www.edx.org/course/u-lab-transforming-business-society-self-mitx-15-s23x#.VL154sZj3xg
25k people form 192 countries… worth a look …
I also enclose an Integral Paper on Sustainability …
The Integral Framework is a comprehensive map of systems, culture, psychology, and behavior. It is used worldwide in some of the highest levels of business, government, and civil society.
http://terrypatten.typepad.com/iran/files/quadrants_undp.pdf
I throughly appreciate the thoughtful, and diverse posts on this website
the best to all
joe
My short summary of this important interview: Gail explained that “oil production is based on ‘zero-interest-rate policy and lots of borrowing with cheap money’,” and varies wildly. Her analysis shows that what happens is a “financial collapse and as a result, the oil production drops.” And “once these financial shenanigans collapse, the whole thing falls down, but it does not fall down in the way that the Peak Oil predictions were made.” She sees affordability as the big issue — which means the beginning of the end of Peak Oil. The world economy collapses, resulting in oil production collapse and other collapses, with the result that the entire system will be unable to be brought back up. Even though a few big companies may have the cash to keep paying employees, the supply lines (small companies) will be dead. It is the financial system even more than the oil system which will have to be bailed out, and this is beyond possibility. The dilemma is that there is either growth or collapse. There is no tertium quid — no steady-state system in reality. A year from now, production will be down regardless of other developments. Our networked system has reached diminishing returns, even though alternatives are being tried; the EROEI is simply not there. We can not get the growth back. Emerging market debt will be a major problem (China, etc.). Non-shale states are way behind on jobs. Reining in interest rates will really bring the economy down, since that is what they have been using to offset oil prices. We need all the rest of the oil-exporting countries, but they will be cutting back on their exports due to the economic problems. In short, it will be impossible to put Humpty Dumpty together again after his fall. Derivatives, “haircuts” and many other problems are even now circling the drain of deflation. Strenuous political and economic activity may postpone the collapse for some months or a year or two, but not much longer. Cutting back on debt is lethal for oil production and the global economy, something most people do not understand.
One final thing that was not mentioned in this excellent dialogue: before the 2008 collapse and the very disruptive revaluation of the Swiss frank last Thursday (2015 Jan 15), there was absolutely no warning to the financial markets, the governments or the public at large. These events occurred like bolts out of the blue. So we can probably expect the collapse to manifest itself in the same way.
I am familiar with Integral theory, and have read much of Wilber's writings. I concur with Joe here that it is an excellent map for viewing reality or perhaps more accurately the multiple realities that encompass our evolving spectrum of consciousness. That said, I've often wondered if it provides transformative tools for the predicament of biological overshoot that humanity faces. I came to the conclusion that it doesn't. When asked what the best use of higher states of consciousness, was Wilber stated (I am paraphrasing from memory) that he believed it was to help the lowest states of consciousness move up incrementally.
Due to the fact that humans are mortal and the consciousness development process must cycle and begin anew at birth, we don't accumulate higher consciousness in a way that can outrun our Biology.
We are doomed to have the vast majority of our beings at the lower states of consciousness, at least on the time scale which we are facing this crisis.
I am grossly oversimplifying here, but my takeaway after pondering it was it's a great map, but it doesn't lead us away from our meeting with die off. That said, I look forward to reading the treatise on integral sustainability.
mememonkey
Yes, A map, of any kind is not the territory… a useful tool, but in and of itself… yes not transformative…
Development (in all areas) is Envelopment…where lower levels are transcended (as pathologies jettisoned) and included … Reality is Holonic (Its not atoms that make up Reality, but Holons: Whole/Parts…all the way and all the way down)…A Shift in Consciousness is unfolding… whether it's enough to Save (the majority) of people and life is another question (George Carlin had it right …"its not save the planet…which will do fine without us…but save the people),
and Yes Higher Consciousness…all the levels in this Spiral (below) have an effect on the lower levels (our founder fathers were at a Rational level…when the vast majority of people were not…yet they established our country on principles that effected those incapable of "getting" it…—everything over one's head developmentally … truly doesn't exist for that person/peoples…thus the world is not laying out there equally for all to "see"… but is brought forth with our Conscious Development
I have included a more simpler Map of Value-Memes (individual and Cultural level of development … the unfolding of Worldviews)… you are correct in stating that vast majority of people are at lower levels (naturally because everyone is born at fulcrum zero, and must navigate the Spiral… there are now people at Every Level/Color that has Ever unfolded historically over the last 100k years (recently data shows that 70% of Planet and 30% of USA are at a "Blue" traditional/Fundamentalists level (My Tribe/people/ideology right or worng… willing to die…or kill for their belief… Pre-rational thinking) …The Cultural Tipping point seems to be 10%, when 10% evolve to a new level (complex reasons why … Cultural pull, brain functioning increased/reorganized, Changing Life Conditions and the associative responses)
the Dark Ages/feudal period had to look like End Times for vast majority of people… Life was Short and brutish, Superstition reigned, disease rampant (Black Plaque), Kings/Lords controlled life, Church was corrupt etc… wars, pestilence… and then an estimated 600-1000 people (Jefferson, Locke, Newton etc) ushered in the Modern (orange) age…
Theorist Claire Graves wrote about the "momentous Leap" into 2nd tier (see Yellow_Integrative and Turquois holistic)…and estimate 4-6% at these stages and mounting (See the Edx Course I posted … MIT's Otto Schamer reflects this consciousness)
http://eric-blue.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/spiral_dynamics_model.jpg
All good points, with one minor clarification,
I have it on good authority that it's not Holons, but rather "turtles all the way down."
mememonkey
I'm not sure if Gail told us anything we weren't already aware of or anything, substantively new. High prices for oil are only an indication that we are paying more for a commodity than we can really afford. As in all bubbles, frenetic spending leads to over heated economies that are not as productive as they should be. The result - recession and falling prices! 1929 should be a prime example of this. If you don't believe we are currently in recession or about feel the effects of a long depression, think again! I think old Jimmy Kunstler called it The Long Emergency. Looks like Time2help wasn't far off the mark. "In the long term, we're all going to die". - Keynes
Think I'll split a bit more wood to stay warm while I read my seed catalogs. That's gotta be more more productive than my pension plan or agonizing over the future.
As devastation approaches from afar, the water at the shore recedes rapidly, leaving fish flopping on the sand. Most run towards the unexpected bounty, blissfully unaware of the impending destruction. A few understand this is a deceit; a harbinger of imminent danger, and they race for higher ground.
Gail captures and carefully analyzes what is likely misplaced joy at the dramatic fall - still continuing! - of prices at the pump, and why we should consider its graver implications. Whither higher ground?
Wow, what a thread.
I was about to jump in with a comment on tipping points. In the spirit of the site (which, in my understanding, is assisting people to become better informed) I note a school of thought inclined towards slow collapse. Anyone in this camp who's genuinely interested in their own preparedness I'd refer back to comment 1 in this thread. There are extremely compelling reasons that beyond a certain point, collapse quickly becomes inevitable and irreversible. This doesn't preclude a staircase down to the tipping point. And I'm not saying this is definitely going to happen; I'm saying the logic is plausible so it needs to be taken into account.
Then I read the conversation between Belmontl and mememonkey and I'm blown away. I havent heard the Integral approach mentioned here before and I agree that it is probably the best map of reality there is. Ken Wilber is the person I admire most on the planet full stop. And I also agree that integral theory won't save us.
I've listened to conversations with Ken Wilber, Andrew Cohen and other high level integral thinkers talking about a technological future. (Terry Patten is one of the few who gets the predicament IMHO). These radically positive people who are enlightened or at least highly developed spiritually still operate in samsara - the world of illusion, our world.
Quite simply they don't know all the practical details we regulars on this site know.
I must confess to also being surprised and delighted to find such a number of Integral Thinkers coming out of the woodwork here on PP. Integral Theory and Spiral Dynamics (which is included in Integral Theory) are very central to my world understanding also.
I will take the liberty of somewhat shamelessly recommending an introductory book to Ken Wilber's Integral Theory written by my father. It is aimed at a junior college reading level. (A big complaint of many is that Wilber's work is difficult to understand and spread out over countless volumes. My dad wrote this book so that others less intellectually sophisticated but curious in his church study groups could "get it.")
Introducing Ken Wilber: Concepts for an Evolving World
Simplified models that involve a couple of species, or one species and a single resource don't tell a very accurate story, it's same issue that is playing itself out in the central banks appalling attempt to "manage" the economy. Seemingly complex models are often built on reductionist and rationalized assumption that don't scale. Steve Keen does a great job of tearing apart the "maximizing personal utility" principal that founds "classical" economics. But it seems that if you throw a couple layers of higher level high school math on top of a set of absurd assumptions and we seem to loose our ability to think rationally. Discussions are then labeled wonkish and impossible to follow except by the brilliant or over educated. Nothing could be further form the truth. We just need to roll up our sleeves and dig in a little deeper.
These grossly simplified examples of natural system failures are often used to correctly point to the catastrophic condition we are in. Unfortunately this line of thinking carries with it the same level of consciousness that created the problem to begin with. Modern "farming" practices have for all practical purposes destroyed the life in the agricultural soils they have been inflicted on. The regenerative and naturally fertile soils are replaced with sterile soils that now "require" fossil fuel input. We then condemn ourselves to mass starvation and population crashes because we don't have enough oil to maintain our soil fertility. In order the to maintain this insane system we propose and inflict ever more mechanically complex but conceptually simplistic and energy intensive solutions that mushroom into an ever widening array of unintended consequences.
The critical and most important point is that belief in collapse carries within it the mental forces that created the need for the current paradigm to collapse in the first place, regardless of whether or not the future holds some actual manifestation of "collapse" in whatever formation we visualize. To say we don't believe in collapse is not a denial or even an attempt diminish the probability of the event. We have to leave that false dichotomy behind if we are not going to continually repeat Allan Savory's mistake of killing 40,000 elephants. To forgive is not to condone, it is to transform.
(Chris Martensen part of this)
The Future Is Calling Us to Greatness
with Michael Dowd + 56 ExpertsJanuary 26 - February 8, 2015
A worldwide movement is emerging at the nexus of science, inspiration, and sustainability. Beliefs are secondary. What unites us is a pool of shared values and commitments—and the vision of a just and healthy future for humanity and the larger body of life. This historic series of 30-60 minute Skype interviews showcases the work of many of today’s leaders and luminaries regarding what to expect in the decades ahead, what’s being done—what still needs to be done—and how to be in action despite enormous challenges. These 55 experts represent a veritable Who’s Who of prophetic inspiration
https://www.entheos.com/The-Future-is-Calling-Us-to-Greatness
i've been friends with Michael Dowd for years, amazing guy, he and his wife have been on the road nearly 10 consecutive years , (she is an evolutionary biologist, Michael is published author of Thank God for Evolution -- endorsed by 6 Nobel Prize winners) they are doing the greatest job of integrating Science and spirtuality (amongst other things). There are many Integral Thinkers here (Ken Wilber and Terry Patten) and a host of people who have been on Peak Prosperity (or should be)
Please Check out (i'm surprised i have seen it on this site)
I must say, Treebeard, that you did indeed show me a positive future vision. It came in googling "Allan Savory's mistake in killing 40,000 elephants." I found a TED talk by Allan Savory on the reclaiming desert lands by using herds of grazing livestock, kept in tight groups, and moved about frequently. That is a very remarkable story and the pictures of transformed desert lands and dry lake beds filled with water were awesome.
It makes sense that a system that mimics nature would be right.
An awesome TED talk:Ecologist Allan Savory blamed elephant herds for destroying African grasslands. It turns out, what all grasslands need to survive is more animals eating them. [and to have the herd clustered tightly together and moved about frequently, as they would do naturally when harried by predators].
The world’s grasslands are essential for holding soil in place, storing water and carbon, and providing food. And yet, up to one third of the Earth’s land surface is at risk of becoming desert, with potentially catastrophic consequences, not least for climate change.
"There is a huge gap between the desire for sustainability and proven traditional methods. The heritage based cultural approaches were proven in time as the means that brought us to now, the oil era. The culture of animal power is a precious instrument that should remain in the toolbox of humanity if just for the shear honesty of the animals. 75 years of cheap intensive energy shouldn't erase or destroy thousands of years of culture. Turns out that oil is a culturcide. I just made that word up or at least I'd never heard it before now."
a quote from a teamster of Suffolk Punch draft horses
Meme
Yes "Magical Thinking" … all the way down
http://kunstler.com/TooMuchMagic/
“Too Much Magic” is what Kunstler sees in the bright visions of a future world dreamed up by overly optimistic souls who believe technology will solve all our problems. Their visions remind him of the flying cars and robot maids that were the dominant images of the future in the 1950s. Kunstler’s idea of the future is much more sober: he analyzes the various technologies (vertical farms, fracking, corn ethanol) suggested as overnight solutions to the energy crisis and finds none that he thinks will work long-term to cure a society dependent on gas-guzzling cars, in love with an inefficient ideal of suburbia, and unwilling to fundamentally change its high-energy lifestyle. Kunstler also offers concrete ideas as to how we can help ourselves adjust to a society where the oil tap is running dry.
Sand Puppy,
You seemingly hit the Genetic lottery having such a brilliant heart-centered Dad!! I have read all (yes all) of Ken's books … and it is difficult to explain his work to anyone, without doing it an injustice, I will be buying your Dad's Book (an ebook bargain @ $3.00 – less then a beer or coffee… and will be passing it on )
Beyond the Theory (or theories) is The Practical Transformative work one does – "exercising" Mind, Body, Soul, Heart and Spirit – Within and Without … is critical to personal evolution/cultural evolution…
check out my pervious post … Ken Wilber, Chris Martenson, Kunslter, Heinberg, Greer, Eisenstein, Patten, Korten and 50 or so other thought leaders on The Future is Calling us …
All the best
Joe
DavidAllan,
Peak Prosperity is an eceltic group …of thinkers… Integral (and many adjunct movements) are eeply attuned to what is unfolding …many with great innitatives … with great urgency…but not Anxiety … (much of which I see … right or wrong on this great site at times… "we become what we think about most" – Anorther Allen quote.
I am an Optimistic trans-Realist … I deeply/See and sense what is happening (& have a deep "external hardrive" of friends in various "high" positions (Wall St, Govt, Intelligence, Academia, NASA, etc) and a deep "faith" in the Kosmos (whether it ultimately includes us or not) AND I know there is much "Over" my head (trans-rational) that I can't see … but can "sense"… ( for we all arise in the same Ground of Being, as we evolve in the ever unfolding world of Samsara) … It's easy to fall into an Existential Angst ("do I commit Suicide now , wait for the (projected: inevitable, or take myself out later )
Much is congealing in the world right now (In his Book Blessed Unrest – Paul HAwken estimates approx. 2 million NGO's, with millions of people mobilzing (like White Blood Cells in the human body) to "attack" the "problems"/Opportunities upon us (That's why I appreciate the Integral perceptive of Chris and Adam … prepare for the best… and the worse … Change your Thinking (Upper Left), Your Behaviors (Upper Right}, Cultivate Community (lower Left) and work ot change the existing systems (lower Right) — what is missing is perhaps Levels of Development/Wordviews (the 6 or 7 broad Contact "lens" in which we "See" the world and literally bring it forth … for the World is not laying out there for all equal to "see": that is the Myth of the Given…thus the more perceptives one can "hold" the better he can "triangulate" Truth … it all boils down to "Wisdom" (the inner Path)… Compassion (The outer expression) and Love …
Strange but at the exact moment (like a 1950s serial movie …where the Hero is tied to the train tracks in some way and looks doomed…) we have this Global/Planetary crises/opportunities … The Komos provides us with the means for a Global Brain to arise (Internet, technology, etc) and The Mystics (deeply Realized/Awaken ones) East And West (Rumi, Aurobindo, DeChardin, Gebser, Dalai Lama, Shamans etc) all their Deep inner wisdom to literally come on-line… right when we need it … (not that everyone can or will "get it" … the historical Culture Tipping Point is 10% … when 10% of a Population shifts to the next level/worldview (Integral in this case) … the reverberating effect ripples though the Culture (e.g. last two Levels-- Modern (1600's) and Post Modern (1960s) were started by a few thousand people each… and the vast majority of those populations (literally incapable of "seeing" grocing" what was coming )
Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing.”
― Arundhati Roy
Here a just a few Integral links/expressions…
This paper begins by setting forth the basic facts of our current world crisis and the injunction this crisis implicitly sets before each and all of us to change our lives and ways of relating to one another, explaining how this has inspired recent innovations in my dialogic praxis—an emergent form of ragged truth-telling and inquiry.
The Four Worlds of Sustainability
DRAWING UPON FOUR UNIVERSAL PERSPECTIVES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVES
ICE’s unique ability to influence politics at the level of culture comes from its use of the newly emerging understanding of values development and cultural evolution based on integral philosophy. This philosophy is described in detail in our White Paper on the integral perspective.
Belmontl, thanks for the entheos link. I hadn't seen this. The reason I didn't sign up for the seminar is that I think it will be froth rather than substance. These are genuine, thoughtful people but they're not necessarily going to say what they really think. It will be an introductory course and to enroll and inspire there needs to be a positive vision. Look at Peak Prosperity - the vision is to create a world worth inheriting. And that's why we're here. There are plenty of collapse and die-off sites. But most of us don't go there - we already know the grim details and still want to make the most of the situation. We want the hard facts and hope to see a way forward.
I don't want to be a wet blanket here. I agree the cultural tipping point seems to be about 10%. But just because emergent potentials exist doesn't mean the potentials will emerge. The conditions of support for emergence must exist ( as they have recently in the history of human development). But times and conditions are changing. Fast.
Sand puppy, it's always a pleasure to read your thoughtful comments. I'm intrigued that your dad wrote a book about Ken Wilber.
Treebeard, I appreciate the sentiment but I'm not sure I get your position entirely. That's fine. perhaps that's just my level or maybe I haven't read enough of your comments. Personally, I'm not here for spiritual direction but to orient myself to the probable events unfolding in the near future. My focus is preparation. Furthermore I suggest the best time for personal transformation is NOW. When things start to unwind and we get shaken to the bottom of Maslows pyramid it may be a transformation but in the wrong direction 
It would be great to sit round a table and have a glass of red wine with you people. (Actually that's already happening from my perspective.) Look me up if you ever come to NZ
cheers!
I'm not sure I entirely understand my position sometimes either. Things are often much more complicated than we imagine. But one of the greatest errors that we can make is function in reaction mode rather in action mode. It's OMG the SHTF, now what do I do, what do I do! What do I do! At the other end we can be in the analysis paralysis mode where a whole lot nothing happens. Either way, not a good situation.
Personally I've been at this a very long time like some of the other posters. I was sure that the end was near back in the 70's. Back then a lot of my friends used to call me an angry young man. Bought land (much cheaper back then), built a passive solar house for myself, been working steadily to be able to be off grid as needed (nearly there with that). Been doing the big garden thing, planting lots of fruit and nut trees, working with Transition groups, now recently opened a dormant branch of the Grange here in town. Etc. Etc. That is my off line world.
But these days seem very strange to me now. Back in the 60 and seventies there almost seemed to more awareness and energy around these issues than there is today. Perhaps it was because we just woke up out of he coma of the 50's and everything was fresh and new, perhaps now we're sort of beneath the yoke of doing the hard work of making things happen. I don't know, but what I have finally realized is that this a marathon and not a sprint. As intense as things do seem (and that has a lot to do with where we are in our own particular process), and we do need to be focused and act on the best information that we have in the moment, a thoughtful and measured approach will always be the most efficient in time. We must go slowly, slowly until we get to fast.
We can certainly fragment things and talk separately about spiritual work/preparations, political work/preparations, social work/preparations, ecological work/preparations, community work/preparations, financial work/preparations, etc., but in the end it is important, no lets say essential to our survival, to realize that as much we chops things apart as a part of the peculiarity of our own perceptual structure, that life really is whole. It is sometimes certainly necessary to take things apart, but the greatest danger to our survival is that confusing our fractured perception with reality. It is acting fragmentally that has created all the chaos that we surrounding us. If we are not acting out of our own center, I don't care how good the external advice is, we will be creating and adding to the insanity around us.
I have concluded that both collectively and individual nothing about that process can be rushed until we have created what PD Ouspensky called a magnetic center, when we move from the illusion of free will to active free will. The collective, external and internal process are all aspects of the same process. That may sound a little tinfoil hat to some, but ultimately the practical work that we do will impact our spiritual, and collective work and vice versa. We all function wherever we feel most comfortable. At some level talk about collapse is almost irrelevant, our process will be what it will be.