Gail Tverberg: This Is The Beginning Of The End For Oil Production

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41

Treebeard, Andrew, excellent last post. I've read it carefully (sometimes I zip through) and I agree with every point you've made. We've got a big garden too, along with fruit and nut trees and the subtropicals we're lucky enough to be able to grow. Some mornings I feel quite zen. Used to get up and go to the office - now I get up and milk the cow and feed the chickens. Some days I work off property; some days its weeding, planting, watering, composting, sometimes even chopping wood… at home.
The focus must be positive. This is indeed a huge factor. What we focus on expands and becomes the content of our lives. In fact it is the content of our life simply due to focusing our attention on it.

Despite the seeming negativity of my world view I still see myself as an optimist. In the physical world I don't fixate on climate chaos, nuclear contamination, war, breakdown of law and order, extinction of bees, potential plagues etc etc. As you say this can lead to paralysis or panic.

And to keep things in perspective it's useful to be as aware we can that the physical world manifests moment to moment within the mind, within the consciousness that percieves it. Though most assume the opposite.

So to answer your question what are we prepping for? In my case a version of the future where our technological civilization may collapse but one where there are still opportunities to thrive.

42

Robie Robinson said:

"There is a huge gap between the desire for sustainability and proven traditional methods. The heritage based cultural approaches were proven in time as the means that brought us to now, the oil era. The culture of animal power is a precious instrument that should remain in the toolbox of humanity if just for the shear honesty of the animals. 75 years of cheap intensive energy shouldn't erase or destroy thousands of years of culture. Turns out that oil is a culturcide. I just made that word up or at least I'd never heard it before now."

a quote from a teamster of Suffolk Punch draft horses

"Culturcide"; what a great word, Robie!  It sure does seem to fit the circumstances.

 

 

 

 
43

This podcast and discussion seems like just more of the same-old, same-old at PP.  And by that I mean a great conversation followed by a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion.
I think that Gail is dead-on in her analysis of the oil/finance situation.  However, like most mathematically-inclined people (I'm an engineer by profession so I see it all the time and still do it myself), I think she takes a wrong turn when discussing natural systems and the role of different species.

One thing I've learned from my study of permaculture, especially delving into soil ecology, is that nature does not simply reward those species who do the best at out-competing other species.  Rather, nature rewards those who are able to best live within symbiosis with other species while propagating their own species.

Now, the argument could be raised as to whether or not humans have been "successful" in this regard, or if we have behaved more like yeast in a petri dish full of fruit juice.  Certainly the arc of civilization does not yield a favorable impression, as we have overshot and collapsed more times than we could probably list here.  And the argument could even be extended back to paleolithic times, where we overhunted some of the big game fauna to the point of extinction.  Then again, in the past this may have just been the same kind of process by which a fire clears out portions of a forest, enabling new life to spring up to replace that which has been burned out.  The main difference this time, being, that instead of limiting our "disturbance" to distinct regions, the discovery of 500 million years of concentrated sunlight enabled us to disturb the entire planet at once.

Regarding the discussions around collapse in this thread, personally I think it's valuable to use the definition of that term as described by Joseph Tainter – the resetting of a society to a lower energy level and lower level of complexity.  In this sense, collapse fits well with the notion of ecological disturbance that I described above.  And even more importantly, collapse is a process that carries out over considerable periods of time, constructed of countless small events and some bigger ones – not a grand event by which everything instantly resets.

Dmitry Orlov has offered some interesting observations regarding the lowering of population following the Soviet collapse.  While the population did decline considerably, it was not as if everyone just dropped dead in droves.  Rather, much like during the Great Depression in the US, the birth rate declined considerably.  Added to that, the death rate year-to-year simply rose.  So, those who lived through it just went to more funerals each year, and saw more of their friends and family depart than they did during the old USSR.  It was a creeping decline, not necessarily a sudden one.  I think that is what awaits us, except that our initial shock might be more severe seeing how in Russia no one was kicked out of their homes or starved – two things that will definitely happen here (and have already started to a small degree).

But enough of all this academic stuff.  Ultimately, it's about living day-to-day, forging deeper and more meaningful personal connections with those around us, and creating more meaning in our daily lives.  I know that while I'm ahead of the curve compared to many other people I know, I'm also way behind the curve of many of you on this site.  So, in this coming year, we're continuing with the passive solar and energy efficiency retrofits, bringing chickens into the homesteading mix, and I'm already expanding my community connections (helping out a permaculture design course taking place in my town, organizing a regular permaculture/homesteading/prepper meetup, volunteering with my daughter's school garden and getting them to incorporate permaculture patch "legacy" gardens for the elementary kids, working with my neighbor to harvest firewood, etc.).  My parents are now 6 miles away instead of 70, which makes a HUGE difference on a number of levels.  I'm getting my 7 year old daughter more and more involved in the homesteading work each year, especially with getting her to understand that it's an obligation of being a part of the family and not a choice.  Starting to ease my 3 year old son into some basic tasks (he loves to help me haul and stack firewood).  But perhaps most importantly, taking time with my wife and kids to enjoy those simple moments where, in the words of Kurt Vonnegut quoting his uncle, you just sit back and say, "If this isn't nice, I don't know what is…"

44

Hello to everyone
I am new to the site/conversation and am looking forward to joining this community of like minded thinkers.

I'm a relatively young guy just under thirty and live in upstate NY. I have spent the last five or so years learning about the three E's and spirituality. Just bought 50 acres and I'm thrilled to start the journey.

 

CAH your reference to soil ecology reminds me of the book I'm currently reading Mycelium Running: How Mushrooms Can Help Save the World by Paul Stamets. I would definitely recommend it.

 

45

PP is a great place and community for having discussions with like-minded people on the 3Es and what it means for our lives.  Glad you found us!

46

Treebeard, analysis paralysis hits the nail right on the head.  Sometime it's good to hear a voice in your ear saying "Dude, look away from the headlights and MOVE!"
That said, I didn't know that you could process field corn with lime (calcium oxide) and make a variety of simple, nutritious, dishes.  So, look away from the headlights and get a corn grinder and some lime and learn to make hominy, corn pudding and tortillas on the wood stove.

Do the next thing, 

John G.

47

I first came across this article on Zero Hedge near the end of 2011 which introduced me to Chris's work.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chris-martenson-lecture-why-next-20-years-will-be-marked-collapse-exponential-function

48

InfiniteSelf33,
First off, welcome to the site.  PP is definitely a source for some of the most wide-ranging, deep-thinking discussions you can find on the net.

I'm familiar with Stamets' work but haven't actually read his book yet – have to put that one on my "to read" list.  I'd also recommend looking up Dr. Elaine Ingham, a soil biologist who spoke at last year's Permaculture Voices Conference.  Her stuff will blow your mind – I listened to a podcast of her presentation at PV last year something like 3-4 times so far while driving, and will have to sit down to take notes on it to really make sense of it.

49
The thing that's always struck me as odd about deflationists is that I've never seen them explain what money is, where it comes from, and how it has its value. They describe all the carnage that's coming to the economy, how humpty dumpty is going to break and we won't be able to be put him back together, and how this is going to permanently destroy demand for oil, which will then result in a drop in price for oil, but it's always in relation to the dollar... as if the dollar is some almighty bastion of impartiality in the universe that's always been and always will be. The dollar just is. And based on the last 50 years of dollar hegemony, that logic is somewhat justified.
 
But what I think this site and others are trying to explain is that the dollar is not all that, and that it too is going to go down with the ship. In fact, the collapse we are anticipating is ultimately going to be precipitated by the dollar losing its hegemony. and the central banks thereafter being unable to use their printing presses to distort markets, with true fundamentals finally expressing themselves.
 
So there are of course two ways one could measure the price of oil in the future: in real terms or in dollar terms. I think it's entirely conceivable that oil could go down in dollars for a while (the deflationist view), but it's not going to stay there (aren't most hyperinflations preceded by a deflationary collapse?) The "transformation" we are experiencing is not a static photo. Soon afterwards the dollar will be devalued since the looming carnage to the economy will destroy the base of the dollar as well, and everything will get more expensive... in dollars. But in real terms? 
 
What should we use as a metric to judge true prices in the future, in an era of high inflation? Well, the best metric is to analyze affordability for the average person, which is what an hour of human labour will buy. But the problem we will face, the one which economists have been fighting for decades but only making worse, will be that unemployment will shoot way up and there won't be much human labour out there earning money... So, who knows, it may be that in human labour terms, oil will drop in price in the future, but that few people will have jobs so they won't be able to afford it. However, I don't envision this being a stable situation since 80% unemployment won't work in an economy. And I just can't in principle agree with the assertion that a critical commodity which will be getting scarcer will go down in price and stay there. How will that unstable situation play out? Who knows, but I envision some kind of a revolution or war.
50
Treebeard, I appreciate your insight. I fully agree that human consciousness and social organization are not deterministic and cannot be accurately modeled, something that Atheists get wrong, and unfortunately, an approach that modern science and economics emulate too much (though they need not since there is nothing inherently reductionist about the scientific method). However, some things in the universe indeed are reductionist, and cannot be wished away simply by taking a different view of reality.
 
While it is folly to apply material reductionism in order to derive theories to predict how complex, non-deterministic systems behave, it is equal folly to presume that everything operates this way and to assume that genuinely deterministic systems aren't, and to rely on hope and faith, and a positive attitude in the hopes that maybe, just maybe, if we all just change the way we think and act, that things won't turn out that way. That is one of my biggest complaints about contemporary philosophy / thought / academia -- an unwillingness to understand when reductionism is valid or not, and a willy nilly application of reductionism when it's not warranted, which then alienates a lot of people from using reductionism where it is warranted!
 
Unfortunately, on the scale of resources that are needed to sustain civilizations and to prevent St Matthews Island-esque collapses, those processes are thermodynamic and therefore deterministic. They are fully predictable and that is what we are facing. While you may dismiss an overpopulated deer population as being too simplistic a model to apply to our own future, it is not. You point out that the "solutions" we are applying to agriculture (more mechanism, oil use, and further soil degradation) are from the same mentality that got us into this mess. I would agree; however, those previous naturally fertile soils would never sustain 7 billion people, the math just doesn't support it. That is the problem. Your argument would be sound if the global population was 100 million. If you disagree, the onus is on you to explain how changing our consciousness and perception of reality, and presumably our social systems as well, is going to somehow magically and radically increase per-hectare agricultural yields beyond anything seen before in the history of the world in any natural system.
 
I am glad that the 50,000 elephant cull example was brought up. This is a perfect example of how animal populations can be decimated. However, they can never be increased (sustainably) beyond the carrying capacity of the land. And as an aside, I have heard some criticisms of Allan Savory's claims. While I'm sure there is some truth to what he is saying, some of his claims just verge on bizarre.
 
And the thing about you being a doomer back in the 70's only to never see it materialize ... well the only reason disaster was averted then was because the US dollar reigned global, backed by the military, to become the sole reserve currency. This enabled the US to use the rest of the world's resources after it ran out. If not, it would have indeed collapsed in the 1970's. In 2015, there is nowhere else to run.
 
I don't envision fossil fuels running out, to a point that there won't be enough to feed the world, for at least several decades, maybe a century or more. But as I alluded to in my comment above, the end of growth will lead to economic and social chaos which will have a similar effect as starvation -- in fact, one could view this economic collapse as being simply the first signs of a die-off in an overly complex system. We are not going to be able to reach the 10% enlightenment necessary to make social-wide changes to avert this reality; we needed that 20 years ago.
 
Now, as to how we individually and culturally can react to the reality of the collapse that's coming, sure, I fully agree that we need a revolution in consciousness. It will help people in their chances of surviving, and maybe be useful in helping our descendants bring back a future civilization (of much less population) that does not destroy itself and the world, again. But it isn't going to prevent the collapse that is before us.
51

Collapse is already here, we are at depression levels unemployment, real wages haven't budged since the 70's, income disparity is off the charts.  Call it inflation or deflation, but our ability to live on the income derived from the "system" is turning into a loosing battle.  We have a generation of people who are facing "retirement" with no retirement savings to speak off.  Our current economic and social systems are completely corrupt and in decay.  Have we degraded ourselves down to ambulance chasers who will not be satisfied till we see blood in the streets?  Turned on the TV lately, there is plenty to see if that is what we are looking for.  What are we waiting for?
Transformation is also already here now.  A whole generation of young people are getting into a whole new way of farming.  Young people are not participating in the old systems any more.  New modes of communication are transforming the media landscape.  There is a revolution going on in renewable technologies, PV are becoming ridiculously cheap, we are now talking about setting zero energy as new building standards in the near future.  It is there if you care to look for it as well.

Fear can exist only when you are living in the past or the future, it does not exist in the present moment. Fear of the future does not create rational or useful action, by not participating in that, I am doing a disservice to no one.  Rational action comes from allowing ourselves to look, to see with the suspension of belief of any kind and the suspension of a desire to reach an immediate conclusion. There is much to be done now and by moving fully into action in the present moment we do the most that we can do both for ourselves and everyone we come in contact with.  That kind of action is contagious and leads immediately to a quality of life that we all aspire to.  If we agree or say that collapse will occur at some point in the future, what is the actionable information comes out of that conclusion?  Look into the emotional energy associated with that statement, really look at.  What happens if we say collapse has already happened?  We may be surprised by what we see if we spend the time.

This has nothing what so ever to do with "positive thinking".  It is about a different qualitative relationship with ourselves and the world around us that is free of self justification and self absorption.  Its about removing the barrier between ourselves and world so we can see the world as it is and not how we want it to be, in all it's ugliness and beauty.  It is about stepping beyond me, myself and I and moving into us, we and now.  The moment you are certain that you know what the future will bring is the moment that you can be certain that you are wrong.

Will 3 or 4 billion people die in the next 10? 20? years. Are you certain?  I know that I don't know, one way or the other.  If you are, what will you do tomorrow morning when you get out of bed.  Something different? 

52

The article and video you linked to are a great intros to Chris's work; I can see how it led you here!  I think I may have first seen an article by Chris on FinancialSence.com or a similar site.  Once I got here, I was hooked!  I had been reading about all these disjointed factors impacting the future (problems with debt and the dollar, peak cheap oil, the generational storm/demographics, etc.), but everyone seemed to be looking at each in isolation, which didn't make sense to me.  So when I found someone who integrated all the pieces together into a coherent whole, I was hooked.
Glad you found us!

53

Oil production was surely profitable from mid 80s up until early 2000s when the prices where in $30-$40 range. Why would going back to that price level be unsustainable long-term? What is different now? What prevents the world from going back to the 90s oil prices and production levels and staying there for another decade or for the duration of the economic recession we are in?

54

In a phrase, unconventional oil resources.  It took higher prices to bring those sources online.  Conventional oil peaked in 2005 resulting in high demand leading to higher prices.  Now there's and oversupply of oil thanks in part to production gains from unconventional sources and partly due to deflation, forcing prices down to their current level.  With the price decline unconventional oil is cost prohibitive.  We are seeing the beginning of the unconventional oil industries shutting down.  I suspect the pace will quicken if deflation continues as many expect.
The same dynamics are affecting the US shale gas industry where only the sweetest of sweet spots can make money at these prices.  Given the rapid decline rates of shale plays, the sweet spots are already in decline in productivity and numbers.

I highly recommend this publication for a deeper dive into the subject:

http://www.postcarbon.org/publications/drillingdeeper/

Doug

55

What an amazing discussion! There really are some great thinkers on PP! A bit late to the party, but I just thought I'd chime in to give my perspective on treebeard's comments and the comments responding to his comments :slight_smile:
Fundamentally my perspective is that so much is unknowable, and as yet undecided. It's obvious to me that the world will soon be changing a lot. I truly do believe the next 20 years will be entirely unlike the last 20 years. The rules that have played out for the last 100 years (or more) are about to change dramatically, and it will catch most people completely off guard. However, exactly what happens next is open to debate. Will it be a rapid collapse and die-off? It's certainly possible. Will it simply be a change that mean our societies relate to the world in a different way … well that's possible too. I'm pretty young, but my experience has always been: however I imagined the future to be, it has always turned out different to what I imagined.

I'm a big believer in living in the present moment, in truth we have nothing else. Work as hard as possible to prepare for the future, but know that it is ultimately not fully under our control. Our future is uncertain: as in fact, it always has been, and always will be.