I see some faulty reasoning here, and I’ve seen this argument over and over:
Silver is much crazier. Since most of the silver ever mined has either been commercially consumed or used for jewelry/religious purposes, private above ground stores are tiny: about $48 billion (that’s with a “b”, not a “tr”). Even if we add to that all of the $17 billion or so in annual silver expected to be mined this year, that’s only $65 billion.
It would take only a few billionaires taking a stake, or the tiniest amount of demand shifting from the $20 trillion US Treasury market into silver, to convert the metal into “unobtanium” (again, hat tip to Mike).
Of course, it could happen, but it doesn't need to happen, even if billionaires wanted to get a lot of precious metals. They can always get gold. Think of this similar reasoning:
'Private real estate is under-owned. CitiX is a small town in Switzerland with 20K inhabitants and 15 houses for sale. If even a few billionaires wanted to own property in CitiX, houses in CitiX would soon become "unobtainium".'
The reasoning is correct, but it doesn't follow from it that you should rush to invest in CitiX. Sure, a bunch of dumb billionaires could bid up CitiX properties to the moon, even as other private real estate around the world rises much more modestly, but you shouldn't expect this to happen, because it would be more sensible for such billionaires to look for value in places other than CitiX. For similar reasons, while nothing can stop determined billionaires from bidding up silver and bidding the gold/silver ratio down to silly numbers, it would make silver overvalued, and buying an overvalued asset is a dangerous thing. If Nelson Bunk Hunt was still alive, he could attest to this.
But silver is different than gold, much more different than houses is two cities. It has specific industrial uses and if a physical default happened, there is no other “house” that industry could go to without a major restructuring.
Furthermore, compare real estate in San Francisco to rural Kansas. Indeed, even real estate can have dramatic price differences.
Congratulations Adam. You have established a silver and gold position prior to the latest precious metals boom, as you recommended that others also do so. As I’ve posted before, I think it’s good planning to maintain a 10-15% position in gold and silver. My slightly different take on some of your advice. For those with no gold or silver position. You’re late to the game, and it is like trying to buy fire insurance after the house is burning. I would wait for a dip of 10%+ to start buying in. If you already own gold and silver again I would use a 10-15% limit and buy more opportunistically. Once prices go up and you hit the 15% limit stop buying and hold until the position hits 20% of investments then reassess the situation and decide whether to take some profits. I don’t use hedges against a price decline, its just guaranteed negative cash flow, and is not necessary if you keep your position within your means, in my opinion. Again, well done Adam!
No surprise that we disagree once again. But since you mentioned PT Jones . You may wish to look at the post of 000 above which mentions that he disagrees with you as well.
Crypto currencies are and have been an alternative since their inception. But to a hammer everything looks like a nail. And here since the beginning PM"s have been the nail.
That was very true until 2009 when a Mr. Satoshi issued a white paper which was revolutionary. It was unobserved here for 4 years. Since then it has largely been ignored.
At this moment BTC is at $11,336. Etherium is at $345. BTC is the most valuable liquid investment you can own. Institutional investors are moving into the space and people like Mr. Jones and Mr. Maloney have positions.
So I beg to differ with your assertion, that their is no other alternative. There are many forms of capital that are to be found in your book.
Hey Pappy good to see a little Robert Hunter here. This one seems appropriate.
Now I don’t know but I been told
it’s hard to run with the weight of gold
Other hand I heard it said
it’s just as hard with the weight of lead https://medium.com/in-bitcoin-we-trust/hodling-bitcoin-right-now-is-easy-the-real-challenge-will-start-when-the-price-becomes-parabolic-82f41b379960
I suggest you read the paper Bitcoin will bite the dust. I have not been able to find an intelligent rebuttal to the paper. But it does not seem to have deterred the bitcoin fans.
Wait no!. TINA is referring to the Central Banks. They have no alternative but to keep the markets, and subsequently their systems going, at all costs. If they let’s the system deflate, it will implode.
Did we just see both gold and DXY go up all day? That's not "suppose" to happen.
It very much makes sense. In fact, nothing else does in these times.
Nearly half of the world's trade is in DXY, mostly Eurodollars ($ outside of the US). Nobody can print USD but the US, so the world desperately needs us to do this for the world economy is to grow.
So they print more of their currencies, and trade them for more printed USD. Of course, this causes USD to go down against gold...but every other currency must print to match our reserve currency, so they fall against gold too.
So in a USD squeeze like we see today, everyone must print together, and they cannot keep up with us, so the USD goes up against them...while gold also goes up against all currencies.
People forget how strong the US is compared to other countries. As I've said here before:
1. 45% of trade is invoiced in USD.
2. US has a somewhat fair rule of law (compared to other countries).
3. US has the largest military in the world by far, and the most nukes.
4. US is the top oil producer. The US has the most coal reserves.
5. US Navy controls sea lanes, and enforces them.
6. US has lots nuclear & NG.
7. US is the world's breadbasket.
8. US is the world's largest client; if we decide to take our industries back, Asia & Europe are screwed, probably civil unrest.
9. The US has the most gold reserves - 8T vs 3T for the next contender.
In summary, the US is king. We call the shots. We are nowhere close to "collapsing". If and when we get close, every other country will be dead first. We are grading on a curve here, and we are the cleanest shirt in a VERY dirty laundry pile. Of course, gold is the clean white linen in this analogy...and the US has the most...which is likely why it will be taxed our outlawed into submission over the next generation. Own physical. Own now. Have cash. YMMV.
Sager, we started around the same time and every day was “THE” day everything was to implode. Then Chris started to talk about the gift of time and planning, getting started. This advice seemed strong advice as it fit my lifestyle until that point. This was always the dream but it felt like a huge push was necessary so we just got started.
Charles talked about the need to unclutter your lives and so the things I didn’t need were sold off and a good price was fetched as the Fed made everyone whole and we could get good prices for the consumer goods we purchased into the future that were just not needed. I mean, how many TV’s did we really need, the Boys were gone so get rid of all the stuff, keeping what was necessary.
We made our biggest move when selling our home. A beautiful home that after the Financial Crisis wasn’t worth half of what we paid for it. Again, 10 years later and we sold at the top of the market, I priced it lower than the comps said but I sold it the first day and a wonderful profit so the Fed gets all my love. The cash didn’t all go to the top .000000000001% and that pleases me. We closed on our home in late November and the economy was closed down in March!!! That is just dumb luck was my thoughts, and those who went greedy are still sitting in their homes. I know, I visit the old neighborhood and Folks that were selling at the same time are still there.
Now, we are building our dream home, our Cabin and I can finance this myself. I want no debt and the cash remaining will work for the common good as I will never really need it. Plus building your own home and doing the work on projects I’m qualified to do has saved a bundle so there’s that. Being and working in the trades my whole life and loving it paid yet another dividend. It’s a dream come true. This came about because my Lady and I put everything we could away, we paid ourselves first and the Fed did the rest. The stock market provided us with crazy profits and the oil of 2008-09 provided insane profits as the Financial Crisis was at it’s lows and finally turned, so, just a major stroke of luck at a time in History. Oil prices were very high, reaching again over $100 a barrel and the Bakken was just a baby and everyone wanted to be in the E&P space. Great profits were made.
Not Rich by any stretch but, if smart, it will take care of all expenses going forward but we won’t need it so it will go to my son’s and Grandson’s.
All that it took was planning and time. Now we eat from our garden and the chickens give us so many eggs and meat. We have added a few other animals to the mix like 2 pigs, 4 lamb and will fill the freezer with beef from an across the road farmer who raises the beef. Fixing his fences secured the meat as a barter and this arrangement is now 3 years strong where work is performed for the freezer meats.
It all seems so easy but it was nourished over 12 years and in place are people I really need in my life, we exchange our gifts for different kinds of gifts. Strawberry’s were in abundance this year and frozen for a long winter. These strawberry’s were gifts to my neighbors, with whip crème and short cakes as a thank you for the many times my neighbors helped me by just stopping by and asking if what they had could help the bigger project we were doing. This is how it goes when your needs are made easier by someone else gifts. Seldom do you require the help so the gifts are for that time when you really need them and this is understood. It’s funny how good will has a way of becoming infectious. Everyone wants to feel a part of something nice and not have their space infringed upon, we are there because of the solitude and spacing after all, but we do need each others at times.
So, yes, the spot you are on right now is not where you will end up on so long as you just take that step to move forward.
My guess, we will receive the gift of time still and you will end up where you want to be in the end. Good luck to all, just recognizing where you want to go is the hardest part, getting there is the easiest part but you must plan and work extremely hard, no one can help you until you put yourself into the place where common Folks like yourself have made their decisions already, their there waiting for you, you just have to get there. The rest comes together if willing to share without expectations.
This time next year and we do what we have always wanted to do. Then it will be time to enjoy the fruits of our labor and plan a different plan, like how can we play just a little more. Well, The Roost, our 5th wheeler we paid for years ago and have lived comfortably in will be our home on wheels and we will take shorter trips and look and see how others are doing things, and just enjoy the world from the road. Then head back to our home that we always dreamed of that will be tended by friends and neighbors, perhaps my oldest son and his wife while we were gone. This is a high quality of life that never gets old. The spot you occupy now will NOT be the spot you stay in, that’s for darn sure. Peace
Went back to read the post about acquiring and storing gold and silver. As someone who’s lived most of her life in an urban area, I’ve been burglarized and have friends who’ve experienced the same. So I can tell you where NOT to store your gold, and one of those locations was recommended as a good spot … a home safe. My friend’s home safe was bolted to his bedroom closet floor, and the thieves had no problem ripping it out and stealing the entire safe. BTW, his house was locked and he had a dog.
A word to the wise (which can be verified by speaking to any cop in an non-rural or suburban area) don’t store anything you don’t want stolen in your master bedroom. It’s the first place to be ransacked.
I have heard an unfortunate story or two of a safe deposit box full of PM that was burglarized by a family member or spouse whose name was on the box.
Remember, everyone whose name is on the SDB can access (and empty) the box.
Suggest that the main user only have their own name on the box, and choose “right of survivorship” for the spouse or family member.
There’s a difference between a safe and a security box labeled a safe. I’m not going to go into it here as it’s been written about quite a bit on the Internet. If a person wants to store something in a secure safe, it’s a bit more involved than buying a box and bolting it down. I’m sorry you’ve been burglarized. I have been also. Such a feeling of violation.
Thanks, I’ll look into that. My current strategy is to use one of those “security boxes” as a decoy. I keep it in my closet, not bolted down so as not to ruin the floor, and keep about $200 in cash and some cheap gold-plated jewelry in it that I’ve had forever and no longer wear, along with some copies of documents that don’t give a ton of personal information. Don’t want to alert the thieves to my devious plot when they open it!
Anything of greater value is not in my bedroom and hidden much more thoughtfully. Fortunately, we live in a lovely old house with nice thick walls, a walk-up attic and a full basement. There’s lots of good hiding spots.
Please consider that one of the arguments for owning Gold, Silver (or other precious metals) is that banks - as in bullion banks - and Central Banks are VERY ACTIVELY shorting these metals through the Comex EVERY SINGLE DAY. Just watch the Kitco daily charts.
Proving this is difficult only because the system has not yet failed. But as Chris posted, if there is a Comex failure - their game of creating “fiat” which is then used to suppress physical - through shorting - with the strategy of going long stocks (futures again) - not caring if gold goes up NB so long as stocks go up at a faster rate (making money for themselves and controlling the game). The Bank of International Settlement weights into the gold market at EVERY month end - except this one (July) knocking the price down.
I mention this just to say that technical analysis, in this manipulated state of affairs, is useless - as we have a broken system which like musical chairs will end abruptly. I will not be “hedging” at any point.
Don’t be fooled by thinking gold and silver are “overbought” - I wish Adam had said something along these lines - that it is not just the investment outlook for gold which is positive - that for many years we have lived according to “investment performance” meaning that money managers are forced to invest in the assets which are going up the fastest - Gold has not been allowed to go up faster than stocks - except for now. “They” are down to their last FAANG stocks, and up against a dwindling supply of real physical gold to continue the Game. Like in pin ball, when the tilt sign comes on, the buttons don’t work any more.
We will soon find out their “solution” for us.
Never store valuables in a bank box. A secret known by more than one person is not a secret.
Back in early 2000s, I was the only person, for hours, that showed up at my local coin shop. (No internet sales in those days.) The owner told me many juicy stories. Four years later, I couldn’t fight my way to the counter.
He told me to get a can of blue spray paint, coat all my coins and put them in a basket on top of the TV. One story was about a local attorney who had done some work for a gold mining company over on the east side. When he died, his will gave his wife most possessions, but his mistress got his office articles. One day, the mistress brought into the coin dealer some silver lumps that had been used as paper weights around the office. She wanted to know if they were worth anything. My friend hefted the lumps, then pulled out his pocket knife to scrape off the silver coating. Underneath was pure gold.
I’ve been on the PM train since early 2009. In fact, probably started right around the time I joined this site. For the last decade my focus has been acquiring physical, although up to 2010 I did buy and sell some mining stock. In anticipation and along with the comments from the daily PM thread I’ve parked money in both the gold and silver Sprott ETF’s, GDXJ, and one small silver producer that looks to have a bright future. This time I want to cash out of some of my positions. I’m pretty heavily leveraged in the PM market and I’m considering speculating in Bitcoin as I see it has been doing relatively well lately as the dollar drops. If Tesla can trade at $1700, I don’t see any reason bitcoin can’t go to 100K. When the Quoth the Raven podcast guy interviewed Max Keiser recently, he told Max bitcoin is going to zero or a million. I kind of feel the same way. Was wondering if anyone had any input on the Grayscale bitcoin trust as a vehicle to track bitcoin price without having to store it and worry about tax issues. Is it even a decent idea? Again, this is purely speculation that I would buy into slowly over the coming months.
Thanks, TJ
