Gregor Macdonald: What the End of Cheap Oil Means

First, good summary from both Chris and Gregor.
Re "will the nation accept the limits to oil?": I've already seen online folks who say "yes, we need to move off oil", but they dismiss any potential difficulties of it, and tout their favorite drop-in substitute.  I suspect that this will be the next "official fantasy", and may lead to something like a major push for nukes, coal-to-liquids, or whatever, totally ignoring the real limitations that make such a substitution impossible.

Re the floor and ceiling of oil prices: what concerns me is that, for one reason or another, the floor will rise and/or the ceiling will come down.  If this is a possibility, it seems to me that the consequences when the two meet (essentially, when the cost of production is greater than the market can bear) could be a relatively sudden collapse.  Thoughts on this?

Sorry, but 10 thumbs up for this comment?  Really! I may need to re-examine what people say on these forums if this is the sort of logic approved of.  I don't want to sound too dismissive because everyone is entitled to his or her opinion.  But to me, some of what you're advocating teeters on failed policies of collectivism thought up many years ago and still clung to by Ivy League type elites even after many attempts and miserable failures (see USSR for prime example).you write "Universal healthcare. By removing the profit incentive from medicine, it will be a lot cheaper to deliver healthcare to the masses of people".  Cheaper, maybe? who really knows though?  What incentive is there for cutting edge healthcare if there is no profit involved?  Our system has many flaws, cost being the biggest, but there is a reason that "wealthy people" from around the globe travel here for medical care.  Without profit motives I would bet an ounce of gold that the quality & response of the healthcare system would be drastically worse.  You also speculate to curing ills of individuals without any formula or evidence.  This is the same sort of logic Socialists dream of  when trying to build their utopia.  It has only worked in the minds of those on college campuses, not so much in the real world.
You also refer to our system as a "capitalist system".  I don't know if you follow the same markets and policy coming out of DC that I do, but we are very far from having laissez faire capitalism in this country.  I would say we have a brand of corporatism that has taken over our finacial systems & markets.
I don't disagree too much with points 2 and 3.  However, I would much rather see private capital come in and build railways.  Not sure if you've seen Amtrak's balance sheet in the last 20 or so years? 

Sorry Jcat, health care in the US is the most expensive in the world by a considerable margin, and in terms of health treatment results, ranks somewhere around 37th, mostly behind nations with some form of socialized medicine.http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0910064

Doug

jcat 3022,I'm surprised you would be surprised at the popularity of universal health care. The WHO rates the US behind all other developed countries, not to mention it is proven that it works in all those countries. Wealthy people may come to the U.S. for some types of health care, but they also may come because we ration care to the wealthy first. I also don't think most people in the healthcare profession go into the field primarily for the money. I think you underestimate them and their dedication to improving care for the sake of improving the quality of life. I've heard your particular argument over and over regarding profit in health care, but it just doesn't hold up considering we have 38 other countries to point to that have UHC and provide better care for all. What I see is that money has corrupted health care as much as it has the financial sector. I would support universal health care (real universal health care, not Obamacare) because it would remove the insurance companies (might as well throw the legal system in there as well), which would in turn reduce administrative costs significantly and put the control of care back into the hands of those who should have it - the doctors and nurses.
I agree we don't live in a free market capitalism, but we haven't for a long time. That capitalism where the consumer is king has been gone for at least 50 years. As far as corruption, I think the level of corruption has risen because of the increased constraints we are hitting in regard to energy and the environment, not to mention the lack of accountability for financial irresponsibility and fraud. 
Thank You

jcat 3022, welcome.
And hey, not everyone here is a collectivist. Not hardly. We have everything from strict constitutionalists, libertarians, socialists, conservatives, gun control advocates, NRA members, climate change advocates, climate change deniers, and many more. I happen to be on the opposite side of that issue from Durangokid, as I think power corrupts and more power centralized equals more corruption. I'm a states rights kind of gal.

.

[quote=Doug]Sorry Jcat, health care in the US is the most expensive in the world by a considerable margin, and in terms of health treatment results, ranks somewhere around 37th, mostly behind nations with some form of socialized medicine.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0910064

Doug
[/quote]
… largely because the two most powerful lobbies in the country, insurance companies and pharmaceutical companies, essentially control the system.  When William McGuire, former CEO of UnitedHealthcare, received one out of every 700 US healthcare dollars in remuneration, do you understand where the money has gone?  And under Obamacare, it will get even worse.  One of the unstated goals of Obamacare is to drive private healthcare practitioners out of business.  They will almost all eventually be driven into being corporate slaves for large healthcare corporation/insurance conglomerates and bureaucratic lackeys for the government.  It's coming.
On the flipside, we don't have healthcare in America.  We have sickness care.  Healthcare in America is broken and neither Obamacare nor universal healthcare built upon the present paradigm will solve the problem.  And I simply don't see a new paradigm ever being officially instituted with our present political and corporate structure.  Instead, it will develop as an underground movement, in bottom up fashion.
I could write for hours on this but just don't have the time … partly due to factors stated above.
 

Still waiting for an answer.  Any takers?

Yes.

Wendy,While it was certainly not a central point of your post (to which I gave a thumbs up) the use of the term denier for folks skeptical of impending climate catastrophe is offensive.The term climate “denier” is a deliberate attempt to hijack the historical fact and relevance of the holocaust in order to prevent scientific debate. Scientists and journalists that use the term should hang their heads in shame.
What does a “denier” deny? Certainly not Climate Change: nor global warming since the late 19th century: nor the likelihood of human influence on temperatures. What, then? A “denier” denies certainty on a complex and still young scientific subject. A “denier” questions assumptions about the near irrelevance of solar, oceanic and other non-anthropogenic influences on temperature. A “denier” prefers evidence to model projections. A “denier” tests alarming predictions against actual observations. In short, many “deniers” exhibit the symptoms of being genuine seekers after scientific truth.
Call us skeptics, even in a disapproving way, but never deniers.
Stan
 

Hi Wendy,
Thank you for the introduction.  I agree with sentiments re: states rights.  As a Ron Paul liberty loving liberatarian (say that 5 times fast!) I get very concerned when I see the ideas of Marx and collectivists of his ilk get dangled in front of a population that is always looking to blame and figure out an easy solution to our deep rooted problems.  I'm in the opinion that all forms of collectivism are at their very core evil, and need to be refuted and sent the way of the dinosaurs.  That includes some sort of state run healthcare system.
Re: Obamacare, it is not that.  It is more of a fascist sort of system written by the insurance & pharmaceutical companies to benefit them the most.  I agree with a poster that most (not all) enter the healthcare profession to help people.  That is noble, but at the end of the day accountabilty needs to take priority.  I'm not sure how a non-profit system ever can compete with one based on profits when it comes to accountability.  There has to be a desire to achieve other then telling people you work in medicine. 
My solution to the healthcare problems and costs are to let the free markets to what they do best.  Dictate price & quality.  Allow companies to compete for business like they do in other sectors of the economy & that in essence will drive costs down.
Also Re: the posts about quality of care and costs.  There is some useful information in the links.  And yes, our system is very expense compared to others.  But our system has 300+ million participants.  How could we ever compete with a country like New Zealand that only has a population of 4.4 million?  It is a simple numbers game.  More people means more problems and higher costs.  Our diet and exercise is certanily not helping the cause.

AO said:"One of the unstated goals of Obamacare is to drive private healthcare practitioners out of business.  They will almost all eventually be driven into being corporate slaves for large healthcare corporation/insurance conglomerates and bureaucraticlackeys for the government.  It's coming."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/23/doctors-are-leaving-their-small-private-practices-/?page=all
I did a search and found numerous articles citing the electronic record (which can be very expensive and time consumng) as a key feature, along with drop in reimbursements.  When I went on my own full time,  some insurance reimbursements dropped thirty percent (yes 30).  The corporate practices and hospitals get higher fee scales than private practitioners. That is a big drop.which one can made up for by increasing hours but there is a limit to that equation.  In mental health the corporate group practices don't really want too many therapists and psychiatrists from what I have seen.  I am seeing almost every friend who practices medicine extricating themselves in some way (going into administration, taking sabbatical to work in free clinics with fewer regulations, going part time) if they can possibly afford it. People think it is just about the money for physicians and while it can be, autonomy, pride in the work and a real sense of purpose and desire to help others is still there. Corporatisms kill that and no doubt that hurts quality of care too.
 

I try to be careful not to put labels on people. Marx even said before he died "I am not a Marxist." lol Although Libertarian, Independent, Democrat, Republican, Green, Marxist, etc. all have valid and beneficial viewpoints, in my opinion none of them are comprehensive. I think if we are going to move into a new era that recognizes limits, then we have to transcend these view points and acknowledge what they have to offer as well as take away. I think people around the world are beginning to recognizing this. I also see the word "sheeple" posted often. I think this is a mistake. I believe most people understand the predicament of our global limits (getting back to Gregor and Chris), they  are not in denial, but just don't necessarily know how to react, or they feel trapped in the limits of their own situations. I constantly remind myself of Ellul's (the guy who coined "think globablly, act locally") quote regarding propaganda…(I'm paraphrasing) "those who think they are too smart to be propagandized, are in fact, the most propagandized."
Ao, I would like to hear your views on healthcare. I see the inherent problems of both private and public options. One of the many inherent fundamental flaws I see in the private system (our current system) is that the consumer/patient (i.e. the individual that is supposed to be driving demand) is automatically put at a disadvantage by being sick while trying to make a decision on appropriate care. Obviously I'm generalizing for the sake of being brief, but when someone is feeling sick, the immediate response is "I need to relieve the pain/defect/sickness." This puts a time and emotional limit on their ability to shop for the best care at the lowest price. This is one of the fundamental reasons why a "free market" design can't be applied to healthcare. Twenty years ago when I was studying healthcare economics, the statistic was that 80% of people who were experiencing acute symptoms did not seek a second opinion, let alone a third or fourth. It's not surprising the insurance companies would capitalize on this flaw to their benefit. I think this is what Durango was implying by profit incentive. The biggest profits comes in the areas of insurance and, as you point out, pharmaceuticals right now. To give another example is how the pharmaceuticals are also gaming the system, often to the detriment of the patient. I'm sure you are all too aware of the most recent studies on the 2nd generation neuroleptics and the marketing of the narrative of the "chemical imbalance." It's sad and often immoral what we are doing to our teenager's brains.

I would like to hear your view since you are in the trenches.

Thank You

I put our family on a budget of 36K and we've kept it. This was to prove I could quit private practice and assume the "agrarian" lifestyle we subsidised with an off farm Optometric practice. So far were doing well. There is notta lotta running kids around.robie,husband,father,farmer,optometrist

[quote=VeganD]I did a search and found numerous articles citing the electronic record (which can be very expensive and time consumng) as a key feature, along with drop in reimbursements.  When I went on my own full time,  some insurance reimbursements dropped thirty percent (yes 30).  The corporate practices and hospitals get higher fee scales than private practitioners. That is a big drop.which one can made up for by increasing hours but there is a limit to that equation.  In mental health the corporate group practices don't really want too many therapists and psychiatrists from what I have seen.  I am seeing almost every friend who practices medicine extricating themselves in some way (going into administration, taking sabbatical to work in free clinics with fewer regulations, going part time) if they can possibly afford it. People think it is just about the money for physicians and while it can be, autonomy, pride in the work and a real sense of purpose and desire to help others is still there. Corporatisms kill that and no doubt that hurts quality of care too.
[/quote]
You are exactly right.
The electronic medical records that you cited are just one reason.  There is obviously both a good side and a bad side to EMRs.  HIPAA regulations, which we are told (i.e. the surface agenda) are designed for the purpose of privacy and portability of your records, do serve those purposes … to some extent.  But your records were actually more private when they were just in your health care practitioner's office.  Now that they are routinely passed over the Internet, anyone can intercept them.  If hackers can hack into the Pentagon, they can certainly illegally access your records. 
But worse than the hackers is the government having access to all your records (i.e. the hidden agenda).  ALL this information is being gathered and stored, permanently, and can be used against you just as easily as it can be used for you.
http://www.groundzeromedia.org/flavor-of-the-weak/
When we get into mandatory DNA testing (which will be coming, for your health and safety, of course <sarcasm>) as well as mandatory chipping (which will be coming, first on a voluntary basis, of course), the situation will become much more serious, in fact, downright ominous.  This information will be used in rationing care, making decisions as to whether end of life planning should be initiated and all care (except palliative care) terminated, applying insurance surcharges for higher risk individuals (for those that carry the genetic markers for diabetes, for example), explaining why you don't qualify for anything from gun ownership to a driver's license to a loan because of your lack of mental or physical health (but actually to surreptitiously coerce, threaten, or apply opunishment to you), etc.
Medicine has adopted the evidence-based orientation, big time, hook, line, and sinker.  On the surface, it all sounds very logical, rational, and reasonable.  One should have evidence for what one does.  There should be scientific research to justify treatments protocols and therapies and there should be algorithms that guide assessment and treatment.  However, one of the dark sides to this orientation is that for treatment to be evidence based, it generally must be something that is already being done.  And often, the so-called hard scientific evidence is skewed by the opinions, beliefs, prejudices, and jealousies of the health care researcher and/or practitioner (climate change controversy, anyone?).  So if someone develops a new, more advanced method of treatment that goes against the prevailing paradigm, such treatment is labelled "experimental", will not be reimbursed, and is often vilified and denigrated by the less talented and unenlightened establishment .  In many ways, innovation is being stifled, not promoted … UNLESS, and this is a big unless, it adds to the power, wealth, and control of the establishment.  If it gives control and health independence back to the masses at no or low cost, it will likely be ignored, squelched. or vigorously opposed.
The government is imposing more and more bureaucratic burdens upon health care practitioners in terms of required documentation and testing which require more and more time of the practtioner and take more time away from them treating patients.  And to add insult to injury, the practitioners are having their reimbursement cut, often drastically.  When your doctor asks you (in person or on a form), do you have a gun in your house, he's not asking because he's particularly interested in receiving an answer which will help him treat you better.  He's asking because the government is mandating that he ask.  It's simply cross confirmation of gun ownership which can be access by the government through your medical records. 
We had a recent proposal from Medicare to have a 17 page uptake form.  Truly, if one took the time to fill this all out, there'd be virtually no time left for treatment.  If this form was all about your medical history, present medical problems, signs and symptoms, etc., the requirement for this documentation would be more acceptable (although 17 pages is still overly long and unnnecessary).  But there were proposed questions about your ethnic, cultural, religious, social, psychological, sexual, etc., history, for example, that often have little to do with your present problem (versus other more specific and content rich information) and often, quite frankly, are none of the healthcare practitioner's business. 
We have co-payments now that are up to 50%!  That's not insurance,  That's a fraudulent misrepresentation of something else that has been passed off to employers and/or the patient as insurance.  The only ones who are benefitting from this situation are the powerful insurors and the politicians they have in their pockets. 
If you think all these changes in healthcare are about cutting costs, think again.  I can recall an incident where a hospital employed healthcare practitioner coerced a former patient of mine to use hospital services rather than mine because the practitioner was financially aligned with the hospital (a relationship which, by the way, he had not revealed to the patient).  The hospital's charges were THREE TIMES my charges.  And the result was unsatisfactory.  The patient wound up sueing the practitioner and the hospital, successfully I may add and rightfully so I may add.  He ultimately came to see me and we resolved his problem in a relatively short period of time at a fraction of the expense he incurred at the hospital.  It's all about power, control, and money.
In my own case, we have new G-codes that we have to document, quantitative functional testing that we have to do, and assignment of disability rankings (which, often, are impossible to do in an accurate, objective, fair, and truthful manner).  To learn how to do this requires money for webinars, courses, publications, etc. to say nothing of time lost … a lot of time lost.  And for this, if the present law doesn't change, we will get a 33% pay cut as of April 1.  Quite frankly, it will drive a fair percentage of practices in my specialty out of business.  I love what I do and I am one of the best at what I do but, quite frankly, all this nonsense is driving me towards an early retirement from my chosen field.   
Healthcare and insurance is but another tool by which you will be controlled more and more, tighter and tigher.  And because of a multitude of changes in the world, it will be harder and harder for you to stay healthy and resist the tide of this change … which is exactly what TPTB want.
  

Gillbilly,
I didn't see your post before I posted (or at least, attempted to post) an affirmation of VeganD's comment that would also, in part, respond to your request.  Like a number of other recent posts, it has been censored and is awaiting a verdict.  Quite frankly, I'm dismayed by the lack of communication from the moderators with me on this issue and I'm ready to move off this site like so many other fine posters of the past have done.   

You are exactly right.

The electronic medical records that you cited are just one reason.  There is obviously both a good side and a bad side to EMRs.  HIPAA regulations, which we are told (i.e. the surface agenda) are designed for the purpose of privacy and portability of your records, do serve those purposes … to some extent.  But your records were actually more private when they were just in your health care practitioner's office.  Now that they are passed over the Internet, anyone can intercept them.  If hackers can hack into the Pentagon, surely they can illegally access your records. 

But worse than the hackers is the government having access to all your records (i.e. the hidden agenda).  ALL this information is being gathered and stored, permanently, and can be used against you just as easily as it can be used for you.

http://www.groundzeromedia.org/flavor-of-the-weak/

When we get into mandatory DNA testing (which will be coming, for your health and safety, of course <sarcasm>) as well as mandatory chipping (which will be coming, first on a voluntary basis, of course), the situation will become much more serious, even ominous.  This information will be used in rationing care, making decisions as to whether end of life planning should be initiated and all care (except palliative care) terminated, applying insurance surcharges for higher risk individuals (for those that carry the genetic markers for diabetes, for example), explaining why you don't qualify for anything from gun ownership to a driver's license to a loan because of your lack of mental or physical health (but actually to surreptitiously coerce, threaten, or apply opunishment), etc.

Medicine has adopted the evidence-based orientation, big time, hook, line, and sinker.  On the surface, it all sounds very logical, rational, and reasonable.  One should have evidence for what one does.  There should be scientific research to justify treatments protocols and therapies and there should be algorithms that guide assessment and treatment.  However, one of the dark sides to this orientation is that for treatment to be evidence based, it generally must be something that is already being done.  And often, the so-called hard scientific evidence is skewed by the opinions, beliefs, prejudices, and jealousies of the health care researcher and/or practitioner (climate change controversy, anyone?).  So if someone develops a new, more advanced method of treatment that goes against the prevailing paradigm, such treatment is labelled "experimental", will not be reimbursed, and is often vilified and denigrated by the less talented and unenlightened establishment .  In many ways, innovation is being stifled, not promoted … UNLESS, and this is a big unless, it adds to the power, wealth, and control of the establishment.  If it gives control and health independence back to the masses at no or low cost, it will likely be ignored, squelched. or vigorously opposed.

The government is imposing more and more bureaucratic burdens upon health care practitioners in terms of required documentation and testing which require more and more time of the practtioner and take more time away from them treating patients.  And to add insult to injury, the practitioners are having their reimbursement cut, often drastically.  When your doctor asks you (in person or on a form), do you have a gun in your house, he's not asking because he's particularly interested in receiving an answer which will help him treat you better.  He's asking because the government is mandating that he ask.  It's simply cross confirmation of gun ownership which can be access by the government through your medical records. 

We had a recent proposal from Medicare to have a 17 page uptake form.  Truly, if one took the time to fill this all out, there'd be virtually no time left for treatment.  If this form was all about your medical history, present medical problems, signs and symptoms, etc., the requirement for this documentation would be more acceptable (although 17 pages is still overly long and unnnecessary).  But there are questions about your ethnic, cultural, religious, social, psychological, sexual, etc., history, for example, that often have little to do with your present problem (versus other more specific and content rich information) and often, quite frankly, are none of the healthcare practitioner's business. 

We have co-payments now that are up to 50%!  That's not insurance,  That's a fraudulent misrepresentation of something else that has been passed off to employers and/or the patient as insurance.  The only ones who are benefitting from this situation are the powerful insurors and the politicians they have in their pockets. 

If you think all these changes in healthcare are about cutting costs, think again.  I can recall an incident where a hospital employed healthcare practitioner coerced a former patient of mine to use hospital services rather than mine because the practitioner was financially aligned with the hospital (a relationship which, by the way, he had not revealed to the patient).  The hospital's charges were THREE TIMES my charges.  And the result was unsatisfactory.  The patient wound up sueing the practitioner and the hospital, successfully I may add and rightfully so I may add.  He ultimately came to see me and we resolved his problem in a relatively short period of time at a fraction of the expense he incurred at the hospital.  It's all about power, control, and money.

In my own case, we have new G-codes that we have to document, quantitative functional testing that we have to do, and assignment of disability rankings (which, often, are impossible to do in an accurate, objective, fair, and truthful manner).  And for this, if the present law doesn't change, we will get a 33% pay cut as of April 1.  Quite frankly, it will drive a fair percentage of practices in my specialty out of business.  I love what I do and I am one of the best at what I do but, quite frankly, all this nonsense is driving me towards an early retirement from my chosen field.   

Healthcare and insurance is but another tool by which you will be controlled more and more, tighter and tigher.  And because of a multitude of changes in the world, it will be harder and harder for you to stay healthy and resist the tide of this change … which is exactly what they want.

 

Blocked the first time, came through the second.  Will one of the mods please contact me and discuss the situation.  Thanks.

ao,
Thanks for describing some of your frustrations. It is happening everywhere. You shouldn't feel special.

I'm wondering if there is any movement in the medical community to have a system similar to CSA (community supported agriculture) where you buy shares and receive periodic boxes of food. Since health care is used on an "as needed" basis, I don't know how this would work. Do you have any thoughts on this? Would this be a way to subvert the centralizing government requirements? Can this model survive/thrive after a global collapse?

Grover

…has taken on new meaning.  Reality seems to be becoming more Orwellian week by week, month by month.  It's hard to tell what is real and what is not.  Reality based political discussions are hard to even have these days, if even possible, missinformation and propaganda are so thick that it is hard to tell which end is up any more.  At this point the old political terms have become completely meaningless.  When it becomes difficult to get agreement on the underlying basis of reality, how can the discussion move forward from there?  It seems that decades of concentrated energy sources have created concentrated wealth, power and corruption beyond most of our imaginations.
That is why I have come down on the need to rescale our lives.  I seriously doubt that if I were involved with any of the posters on this site on a personal level that I would have any issues with their trustworthyness, honesty, sense of fair play, or determination to do the right thing regardless of their political sentiments expressed.  Be they marxist, libertarian, capitalist, socialist, what have you.  What is critical is that we continue to build community and commit to one another to work this thing through.  The innumeralbe options that we have today make it all to easy to take and ball and go home, but I would advocate resisting that temptation.

This is not to say that we shouldn't challenge ideas that we disagree with, but think about what are the real implications of that disagreement and do they really make a difference in our daily lives.  There is a certian intensity that things can take on when fear predominates because of the tenuous state the world is in, but the truth will out and we will have the pleasure of dealing with the consequences of those actions, comments on a web blog will not change that.  We will all be suffering from the errors of previous generations and our neighbors, but it is important to remember that they will suffer from ours.

Just read an article about persistant herbicides picloram and clopyralid.  So now getting manure from a friend could be a problem because they could be supplementing animal feeding from commercial sources.  It seems that everything is now needs to be rescaled so that we can return to our own sense of basic human values, a look in the eye, shake of a hand and what we can touch with our own two hands.  Those basic values transcend political persuasions  and are the foundations upon which we need to build our new communities.  They are a salve against corrosive politics and corruption that dominate our modern national life.

Thanks for taking the time to share ao, I found it very insightful.  Since a huge part of living in a peak prosperity environment would be good health it would be of benefit to get more information on the health care system.  For instance, I have heard that our health care will experience some negative consequence from Obamacare but don't have information on how. Have also heard that our costs are going up?  Part of the 3 E's is economy and medical costs are a big part of most peoples budget.  Would like to get more info, any suggestions for educational websites or perhaps more insight ao?  Some of what you reference is quite scary, think I need to learn more about this topic as well.
Thoughts?

AK Granny