Originally published at: Gromen Warns Markets Will Be Locked 2-3 Weeks, Dubai Oil Nears $100, Russia Targets Ukraine Leadership – Peak Prosperity
Economy
Luke Gromen stated that the United States is already past the point of no return, barring a productivity miracle. He argued that once managers of trillion-dollar balance sheets hit the sell button, markets will be locked for two or three weeks and then reopen at a new allocation. Citing Ukrainian friends who saw 1998 bank savings fall from five cars’ worth of money to a month of groceries, Gromen said gold and silver holders came through fine while paper claims lost immense value.
Meanwhile, an investigative essay by former intelligence analyst “Leah” alleged that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent restructured the U.S. financial system between August 11 and 24, 2026. The steps included killing the Corporate Transparency Act, granting World Liberty Financial a federal bank charter, and requiring stablecoins to hold Treasury bill reserves. Leah said her seven-indicator currency-crisis model now shows all seven indicators present.
In other news, Chicago rice futures rose more than 50% year-to-date. India’s monsoon was 13% below normal. BMI analyst Bin Hui Ong warned Thailand and Indonesia face exposure if dry weather overlaps planting windows. Barclays and JPMorgan flagged rising food-supply risks for 2027. However, some say that improved rains in coming weeks could reduce pressure on supplies and prices into the next harvest. Additionally, the Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% Wednesday to 3,331. Thurlestone Shipping analysts cited tightening tonnage and demand.
Energy
Spot LNG prices for Asian buyers reached nearly $26 per million British thermal units, a 5% weekly gain and the highest since 2022. Additionally, QatarEnergy extended force majeure on deliveries into November. South Korean, Indian, Taiwanese, and Bangladeshi utilities sought October and November spot cargoes. Pakistan rejected a BP offer above $27 per mmBtu.
In Middle Eastern crude oil markets, Asian demand pushed Dubai futures near $100 per barrel, with Murban at $106.10 and DME Oman at $99.18. Refiners including Indian Oil Corp., PetroChina, and Korean and Japanese firms bid aggressively. Saudi exports fell to their lowest level since 2017, and Hormuz flows remain at depressed levels. To compensate, Asian buyers have increased purchases from Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and Russia. However, Brent and WTI declined on speculation of an extended strike pause.
In Russian ESPO crude oil markets, Chinese independent refiners paid premiums exceeding $7 per barrel over Brent, with offers reaching $10. China’s share of ESPO purchases fell from 88% to 83% year-to-date, while India’s rose from 12% to 16%. That said, Russia’s oil revenue dropped 22% year-over-year in August to 326.2 billion rubles ($3.76 billion), the lowest since February, with Urals averaging just over $59 per barrel. Moscow paid refiners 197 billion rubles in August subsidies. Rystad projects Russian crude output at roughly 8.6 million bpd by 2027. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the recent production decline is temporary and should reverse as refineries restart.
In US markets, retail diesel prices hit $5.85 per gallon on Thursday, above the June 2022 peak. The NYMEX heating-oil/crude spread exceeded $108 per barrel. Although some are hopeful that Venezuelan oil could help, Bill Bonner of Bonner Private Research called Trump’s announced Venezuela oil deal a “skunk in the hat.” Bonner noted a reported need for $100 billion in investment and prior expropriations of foreign operators. David Stockman estimated the deal’s net present value at negative $84 billion.
Geopolitics
A Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s SBU headquarters in Kyiv. Zelensky said it targeted SBU chief Oleksandr Poklad, who survived. This reportedly marks a change in strategy by Russia, which had previously abstained from such targeted attacks on decision-making headquarters and senior leadership. Zelensky ordered a “mirrored” response.
Meanwhile, Norway seized the Russian vessel Professor Molchanov at Svalbard on behalf of Ukraine’s Naftogaz to enforce a $4.22 billion arbitration award. Putin called the seizure “state terrorism.” The vessel was taken roughly 500 miles north of the Norwegian mainland. Ukrainian and Western sources described the action as a civil enforcement measure under a court order.
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI President Greg Brockman stated, “Welcome to the AGI era,” while unveiling GPT-6 Astra, trained on more than 100,000 GPUs. It is the first model to use other models in supervising training and the first designated at the “critical” cybersecurity threshold under OpenAI’s framework. OpenAI delayed the release for safety testing. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said “we’re practically there today” on AGI. For information on the implications of AGI, please read Volume II of Chris’s Renaissance Report.
US Politics
Judge William Sullivan declared a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy case after the jury deadlocked over 36 hours across seven days. Prosecutors confirmed they will retry the case, with the next hearing on September 29.
Sources
Asian LNG Prices Spike as US-Iran Strikes Disrupt Hormuz Flows
Spot LNG prices for Asian buyers went up to almost $26 per million British thermal units yesterday for a 5% weekly gain following the resumption of strikes between the United States and Iran.
Russia’s Oil Revenue Plunges 22% as Urals Crude Hits $59
Russia collected 326.2 billion rubles, or about $3.76 billion, in net oil revenue in August, down 22% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February.
Rice Rally Signals Food Crisis Risk as El Niño, Wars Disrupt Supplies
The risk of a broader food crisis next year remains elevated.
China Pays Record Premiums for Russian Crude Amid Iran Blockade
Chinese refiners are paying a hefty premium for Russia’s ESPO crude to replace Iranian crude that independent refiners were importing before the U.S. installed its naval blockade on the country.
Baltic Dry Index Surges on Typhoons, Ore Demand, and Tightening Supply
We see the current surge as something of a perfect storm, with vessel supply tightening and demand firing in both basins at the same time,
Norway’s Arctic Ship Seizure for Ukraine Debt Draws Putin ‘State Terror’ Blast
The Kremlin is outraged, with President Putin on Thursday blasting Norway for “state terrorism” in the immediate wake of the Scandinavian country’s seizure of the Russian vessel Professor Molchanov as it was at the remote Arctic archipelago of Svalbard.
OpenAI’s AGI Hype: Astra or Just Another Safety-Tweaked Model?
Welcome to the AGI era.
Source | Submitted by thc0655
Bessent’s 13-Day Dollar Demolition: Stablecoin Profits for the Trump Circle
Bessent is driving countries away from the dollar while the President’s family owns the replacement.
Source | Submitted by waterhawk7
OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra Debut: AGI Milestone or Safety Red Flag?
Astra pushes AI agents closer to doing complex professional work on their own — while also raising questions about how safely they can be deployed.
Source | Submitted by Stph
Diesel Stays Hot as Goldman Doubles Down on Hidden Oil Flows
Hidden Persian Gulf Flows Are Keeping More Oil Moving Than Markets Can See, Leaving Diesel as the Cleaner Geopolitical Trade
Source | Submitted by Rick
Trump’s Venezuela Oil Deal: Skunk in the Hat
This is not Saudi Arabia we’re talking about. It’s Venezuela. With different topography. Different politics. And very different oil deposits.
Source | Submitted by Rick
Asian Oil Thirst Pushes Dubai Crude Near $100 Despite Iran Tensions
Stronger appetite for Middle Eastern crude grades from China and India has added upward pressure on prices for these grades, pushing the Dubai futures close to $100 per barrel
Russian Drone Hits SBU HQ, Targeting Chief in Direct Escalation
The drone was aimed directly at the office of the Head of the Security Service in that building,
Diesel Crisis, Not Crude, Sends US Pump Prices to Record Highs
Crude itself does not keep the industrial economy humming. Diesel does.
Mistrial Declared in Clancy Case as Holdout Juror Defies Defense Pressure
A mistrial was declared in the Lindsay Clancy case on Friday, after a holdout juror refused to bend the knee and let her off.
Luke Gromen: The Markets Will Be Locked for 2-3 Weeks
The legacy system is done. Beyond done. There is no way to fix it. The moment that reality hits the masses, things will break fast.
Source | Submitted by Chris Martenson
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: TradersCom, Tweet4AnnaNAFO, TheProfitPup, QAS_LLC, KyivPost, and MrCovertKoala.
