Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/houthis-hit-400k-bpd-jazan-refinery-us-blacks-out-gulf-satellites-commodities-feel-the-squeeze/
Energy
Two major refineries were struck in the past 24 hours. First, Houthi forces struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, Saudi Arabia’s fifth-largest at 400,000 barrels per day. Second, Ukraine struck Russia’s Antipinsky refinery in Tyumen, processing up to 9 million tons of crude annually.
Meanwhile, the Danish-flagged tanker Torm Innovation, carrying 500,000 barrels of Saudi naphtha, was rerouted via the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope after reported strikes on two Saudi tankers. Such a change in route reportedly extends the journey from 19 to 48 days. Observers worry this could mean significantly increased energy costs should such a change in route become the norm exiting the Red Sea.
In a recent analysis, Goldman’s Hongcen Wei outlined three measures Beijing has used to address supply disruptions resulting from the Iran conflict: destocking coal, oil, and natural gas; shifting toward coal and renewables, with gasoline demand falling 23% year-over-year and EV charging rising roughly 60%; and reducing output in oil- and gas-intensive sectors such as refining. Net fossil-fuel imports declined while total energy demand rose 0.4% in April and May, and Q2 GDP growth slowed to 3.6% from 5.3%. With an estimated 1.3–1.4 billion barrels in crude inventories and a 3.5 million b/d import shortfall, current stocks provide roughly four months of coverage.
Iran War
The EU reportedly imposed a 24-hour Copernicus data blackout over the Gulf of Oman at US request after American commercial imagery providers restricted access, thus ending the world’s unrestricted view of what’s transiting the Strait. EU officials described the measure as a routine security precaution allowed under existing policy exceptions. Skeptics warn there is likely something the US doesn’t want the public to see.
On that note, the US bombing campaign against Iran entered its 13th night, with strikes reported on Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, and Qeshm Island. An Iraqi-brokered ceasefire proposal was denied by Baghdad, while a Fox News poll showed 56% opposition to the military action. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is pursuing a harder line as the conflict continues. More than a dozen US service members have been reported killed, and some Republican figures have publicly dissented. Trump also warned China and Russia against arming Iran and proposed seizing Iranian assets. Iranian retaliation continued against targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and northern Iraq.
Economy
HSBC’s Paul Bloxham noted commodities are increasingly becoming squeezed, citing prices across Brent, European, and Asian gas, jet fuel, diesel, urea, and wheat. Goldman’s Daan Struyven projected Brent could exceed $120 in Q4. RBC’s Helima Croft stated the situation has entered a phase with increased risk to the Red Sea and critical infrastructure.
Relatedly, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index reached a three-year high amid disruptions in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb, combined with heat waves and El Niño risk. The Southern Oscillation Index sits at levels last seen in 2005. Chicago wheat and soybean futures hit two-year highs. An options trade placed a $20 million bet on November corn via 105,000 call spreads covering more than 500 million bushels.
A separate analysis by Ed Dowd argued the AI capital-expenditure boom faces constraints from private-credit redemptions, questioned enterprise returns, and cited competition from Chinese open-weight models. Semiconductors now represent 19–20% of the S&P 500.
Artificial Intelligence
A survey found that roughly seven in ten Americans support transferring half the stock of major AI companies into a government-run public wealth fund, representing a significant shift in culture. Thirty years ago, the commercial internet disrupted industries including newspapers, travel agencies, and music retailers, yet proposals to transfer half the equity of firms such as Microsoft, Amazon, or Google received little attention. The author of the survey analysis suggested explanations, including a growing zero-sum view of wealth, declining confidence in upward mobility amid high housing costs and student debt, and AI’s direct threat to white-collar cognitive work. The author stated that the majority support for transferring equity from firms after they assumed commercial risk sets a precedent unlikely to remain limited to AI.
US Politics
Dr. Robert Malone argued in an essay that the Fabian Society advanced its goals of remaking society along socialist lines through gradual institutional capture rather than revolution, citing its influence from the founding of the London School of Economics through the Progressive Era, New Deal, UNESCO, and current frameworks, including ESG and DEI. He noted these same methods entered the United States through elite universities, civil-service reform, and the expanding federal bureaucracy, shaping the modern administrative state.
Lastly, Whitney Webb stated on the Unlimited Hangout podcast that Polymarket revives elements of DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market and has partnered with Palantir. She noted that its markets have been susceptible to rigging and insider trading. Partnership announcements describe the collaboration as aimed at detecting manipulation and protecting market integrity.
Sources
AI Redistribution Push Reveals Shift From Property Rights to Envy
What’s new is that today’s Luddites don’t merely want to stop the machines; they want to confiscate their owners’ property.
China’s Three Levers to Absorb Gulf Oil Shock: How Long Can Beijing’s Stockpiles Last?
On Wednesday, Goldman commodities strategist Hongcen Wei outlined three factors that have so far allowed Beijing to contain the economic fallout from the Gulf energy shock: drawing down fuel inventories, switching to coal and renewables, and concentrating production cuts in oil- and gas-intensive industries.
Heat, War & El Niño Drive Crop Prices to 3-Year Highs on $20M Corn Bet
Crop Prices Hit 3-Year High As Heat & War Stoke Supply Fears; Options Whale Places $20M Corn Bet
The Fabian Society’s Quiet Conquest: How Gradualism Built the Administrative State
The Fabians understood that whoever controls the institutions eventually controls the politics.
Source | Submitted by richcabot
Polymarket Revives DARPA’s Pre-Crime PAM via Palantir Partnership
Polymarket and Palantir are partners. They are partnered and they work together for market integrity. So this has already happened, and this is the privatized panopticon.
Source | Submitted by eramerine1
Oil Slides as Trump’s Iran War Drags Into Quagmire
Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight
Source | Submitted by Rodster
EU Blackout on Gulf Imagery: Last Satellite Window Closes at US Request
By July 13, the EU had quietly signed a 24-hour blackout order over the Gulf of Oman… at Washington’s request.
AI Capex Party Nears Last Call as Credit, Power, and Open-Source Models Crash the Hype
Credit markets always end the party. We’re watching it live.
Houthi Threats Force Oil Tankers Into Costly Africa Reroute, Fueling Price Risks
Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting Bab el-Mandeb adds weeks of sailing time and sharply increases freight, fuel and insurance costs.
HSBC Warns ‘Super-Squeeze’ Looms as Hormuz Chaos Spreads to Red Sea
Hormuz, Mandeb, oil at 100 … it’s getting worse.
Houthis Strike Saudi Aramco’s Jazan Refinery After Four-Year Lull
Makes this the first Houthi strike on a Saudi refinery complex in 4 years.
Russia’s Antipinsky Refinery Torched Far from Ukraine Front Lines
And it’s in Siberia, over 2000 km from the front lines
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Hoover Institution, Jerusalem Demsas, Palantir, Polymarket, SpaceNews, and EU Commission spokesperson.