Important distinction…China reduced its imports. I have no indication that it reduced demand, meaning the consumption of oil for domestic economic purposes.
It might have, but I don’t have any data for that at present.
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I wanted to send a quick response to your message above. First off, The Renaissance Report (TRR) series is still very much in the works. Without a doubt the “War in Iran” has thrown a significant wrench in our content production schedule.
@brettbrettstraffic-com-au is correct:
Chris has been working on a hefty energy TRR as well as a polycrisis TRR that have merged and diverged as he has tried to update things in real time while the largest energy crisis in world history unfolds. In the mean time, since the first Alert came out the day before the war kicked off, Chris has researched and produced 7 unplanned Scouting Reports and 10 unplanned Iran related Wake Up Calls, Off the Cuffs Finance U reports. This is in addition to the normal Fat Pipes, Finance U and Wake Up Calls that already happen on a weekly basis.
The TRR’s are not in a pile of oblivion, but up to the minute/hour or day related content on the War in Iran/Strait of Hormuz and the resulting energy shock is a huge value to a lot of us here. In fairness, it has pushed back the release of the next TRR, but I hope you can agree that the content flow has been pretty significant, and important.
If you could see it from my vantage point, you would know that the bigger question is, when does Chris sleep? The guy is a machine and he is working very hard to bring us all the information that we most need. Please be patient, the TRRs are still coming.
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Yes.
I figure the deeper analysis takes time to process and if they are to include recent world events, time is needed for those to play out or at least to adjust theories to fit new data.
No worries on my part… I assume the bigger picture analysis will come together when it does.
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Urea, in particular, is supposedly back to PRE-War prices, per the article. I guess I need to go shopping.
@cmartenson I thought you might like to know/comment on this?
PW. Also, FWIW, can (or is it already that) search be easily refined so it starts & lists hits FIRST from the thread one is on and then goes out in some sort of human-logical fashion (like increasingly age of the hit)? I tried to search this thread for “urea” before posting, to make sure I wasn’t redundant, but the search went all over the place instead of confining itself here in some way.
It’s always possible it won’t skyrocket, but the government will start intervening and say, “The little people need less oil than the government. No need for oil to go up in price - because we made a new law that says so.”
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Yes, something like this has a very high probability of happening. In a way, it is in the same family of decrees as the “anti-gouging” laws commonly enforced in the wake of natural disasters. They all have the same net effect: the price is kept artificially low, but there’s none available – unless you’re somehow politically connected.
In the aftermath of natural disasters the usual price-controlled (and hence unavailable) items are gasoline and generators. After a serious economic crash however, we could see this applied to just about everything: cars, tires, shoes, clothes, and when it comes to it, food.
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Thank you so much for sharing that video. Just what I need right now. Trying to figure out how to deal with this feeling. The presenter articulates it so well what I have been trying to define in myself lately. 
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You’re most welcome 
Honestly, it really hit home and kind of blew me away a little. My husband and I went on to watch the next part (part 3) since then which was also very helpful.
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Here is part 1. Just finished watching it. https://youtu.be/Ao2MJeiPiL4?si=ROY8o5z-BVzG_ArI
Gonna find part three now..
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I’m a big fan of that series also. Particularly because I’m trying to focus on solutions. I think part of the op is to have the plebs’ attention directed from one crisis to the next. Big reason I’ve tried to pull back here is my own propensity towards doom scrolling. It’s an adrenaline rush (or maybe a dopamine rush.). But not constructive.
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Here’s the three part playlist
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just last night, I asked Mr AI “why do we doomscroll?”. Good topic to understand.
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Is anyone buying oil company stocks right now? I’m buying Occidental Petroleum (OXY), in part because Berkshire Hathaway holds a huge position.
I just wish Vanguard didn’t have a 7-day holding period between the time you deposit money into your account and the time you can actually place an order. (Even though I’ve had the account for years.) Supposedly an anti-fraud measure.
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I reread the great taking recently after watching it back when it first came out. I have sent it to several people no luck 
but that made me feel the same way.
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I was thinking about that. Perhaps it is setup to mess the US up but is it possible that they saw the come and have always imported more than needed and are just not paying the high price at this time ?
Not yet… I’m already positioned in oil because I’ve been buying since 3 years ago but if they going to go even lower than now and do the retest then I will try to add more to it as of now there’s better deals then oil I think like a natural gas Lumber some energy Services and possibly builders…
My expectation is: the rest of my life. If some kind of normalcy emerges, great! But I don’t expect that. Like @jenz,
Not to mention: when does he get a chance to touch grass, watch the sun set, let the wind ruffle his beard?
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Yep. China added an average 1.1 million barrels of oil to its strategic reserve every day in 2025, and in the first three months of 2026 increased its imports y-o-y by about 16%.
As a result, they had plenty to bridge the roughly 35% supply cut that came on the immediate heels of the Strait shutting. It bought them time to arrange increased supply from Russia, and other eastern European countries, and to work out the deal with Iran to keep ships flowing its way - which included warning the US Navy not to mess with their oil tank ships.
When the crisis hit, China reduced its daily consumption imports by about 3 million barrels per day from its old high of almost 12 to 9 million bpd. It’s state owned industrial sector was authorized to draw from industrial stockpiles to make up the difference. The country also cancelled exports of refined petroleum products to keep it at home.
Estimates are that China has a total reserve of about 1.4 billion barrels. As of now, it has not touched its national strategic petroleum reserve, but it has reduced its demand by 3 million barrels per day, relieving some of the stress on the global demand, which is facing a supply reduction of - as Chris points out - about 10 mbd.
I think China’s reduced its daily demand in an effort to help ease the crisis for the world. Given it has not touched its national strategic reserve, and still appears to have a significant supply overhead for industrial purposes, China could continue in this position for some long time yet without risking its own economic activity. Helping keep global energy prices down helps to keep other, more fragile economies operating, which keeps Chinese manufacturing and exporting going. What’s not clear is how long China will be willing to draw down its own supply for the purpose.
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Is that 1.4B usable or do they have a bottom unusable like the US apparently has?