How Contagious Is The Coronavirus?

FluTrackers daily 2019 nCoV report of confirmed, reported cases and deaths by country as of 1/25/2020 5 p.m. EST. Source
“Total cases = 1,322, Total deaths = 41 (as of 5 am ET, January 25, 2020) - Disclaimer: We do not endorse any of these numbers.”
Note: Includes links to sources, does not include suspected cases.
Also, “We are updating the China case number only once a day despite various provincial announcements. Some of these provincial cases are already in the daily tally from the National Health Commission, and some are not. Also, hundreds of cases have not been reported during the day but appear in the NHC daily tally.
We wait for the daily NHC report. This usually occurs at 8:00 pm ET.”

Chris said, “My comment here would be this is exactly how you prevent the spread of a disease. Shelter in place. The other side of this is that it only lasts as long as the food and/or water in each household or apartment.”
If they run out of food, presumably they can still go to their local live animal “wet market” to replenish their stores. :-/ The Wuhan wet market was closed on 1/1/2020, but I can’t find any information that indicates the other wet markets have been closed, even in those cities that are under quarantine. I believe there are increased restrictions and possibly fines, but no additional closures.
“What it will take to stop the Wuhan coronavirus” (Source)
“One key step – closing all live animal markets nationwide – has not yet been implemented.
I discovered in 2003 that wildlife dealers and animal breeders sell their living creatures all over the country, so that an infected animal in one city’s market may well have a counterpart from the same dealer, on sale in another market hundreds of miles away. It is not yet known what beast was the source of nCoV2019, though one study suggests, based on genetic analysis of the virus, that it came from a snake. The SARS virus was transmitted to restaurant workers who bought and slaughtered live civets – raccoon-like animals in a Guangzhou live animal market, which I investigated before authorities shut it down.
Like the Guangzhou market, Wuhan’s Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market sells a vast range of animals, including civets as well as other exotic wild animals. All live animal markets throughout China and neighboring Asian countries should be shut down immediately, and not reopen until the source of the nCoV2019 epidemic is identified. Until then, it should be assumed that any live animals sold in markets from Hanoi, Vietnam, to Ulan Bator, Mongolia, might be dangerous to hold, slaughter or consume.”
Some argue that closing or further regulating the wet markets is not feasible due to cultural considerations:
"China doing any more to tighten regulations on the markets is “wishful thinking,” she said. To control these places, a generic solution for these particular markets won’t work; it won’t make sense. It has to be specific to the place, to the culture, then it’ll have a better chance of being followed,” she said.
“The wet market is a part of China’s culture. You can’t simply get out of your culture.”’ (Source)

Putting a biohazard lab in an area with wet markets is conceivably a strategic move to deflect blame when things go wrong and provide adequate scapegoats. This would not surprise me in the least if it were proven to be the case.

On Friday the Mayor of New York City Bill Diblastio and our Governor Andrew Cuomo announced 4 possible cases, one ruled word on the other 3 since then except that they are still under observation. They won’t give the location of the suspected cases yet. For some reason Flutrackers doesn’t have it on their list so I am adding for completeness sake. NY1 is the NYC local news site:

Personally, I would NOT take Ibuprofen or anything else to halt a normal fever. Your immune system works better and faster and pathogens are inhibited or killed at a higher body temperature. Why handicap your own defense systems?

“Release time: 2020-01-26Source : Health Emergency Office
At 04:00 on January 25, 2020, 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) reported 688 new confirmed cases, 87 new severe cases, and 15 new deaths (13 in Hubei Province and 1 in Shanghai). 1 case in Henan Province), 11 new cases were cured and discharged, and 1309 new cases were suspected.
As of 24:00 on January 25th, the National Health Commission had received a total of 1975 confirmed cases in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and 324 severe cases. A total of 56 deaths and 49 cases were cured and discharged. There are 2684 suspected cases.
At present, 23,431 close contacts have been tracked, 325 medical observations have been lifted on the same day, and 21,556 people are currently undergoing medical observations.
A total of 5 confirmed cases were reported in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 5 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 3 in Taiwan.
In addition, a total of confirmed cases notified abroad: 4 cases in Thailand (2 cases have been cured), 2 cases in Japan (1 case has been cured), 2 cases in Korea, 2 cases in the United States, 2 cases in Vietnam, 3 cases in Singapore, and 3 cases in Malaysia One case was in Nepal, three in France, and one in Australia.”
FluTrackers, China (Source)

I notified the site administrator of FluTrackers, included your post, w/hat tip. :slight_smile:
Hopefully (and sadly) they add NY to the lists.

From my mom, retired from hospital microbiology and infection control:
Coronavirus Susceptibility to the Antiviral Remdesivir

Per one of my favorite bloggers on h5n1, the esteemed medical journal Lancet published a review of the first 41 cases in China but does not give follow up on patient 1. The first patient was NOT connected to the seafood market in Wuhan and got ill a few weeks before everyone else. The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases. Crof reports that the Lancet article does not say whether he survived or not and no one seems to know what happened to him This is the link to the Lancet article (they published a few this one looks at the demographics symptoms etc... of the 41 victims)

Note: I've copied this over from the other thread so it can be in both places. The conversation is getting a bit fractured by all the content, which is somewhat unavoidable. Feel free to copy/paste any content you are posting in multiple places to assure it gets seen.
Looks like China has gone full speed ahead with containment. The quarantine efforts should definitely help with slowing the spread of the virus. As of now there are 40 confirmed cases in Shanghai, which I’m watching very carefully as it’s a global city with a global reach. If Shanghai goes down then all bets are off. So far, looks like Wuhan has taken the brunt of the virus. It’s been completely closed off via martial law. Also the fact that there’s minimal cases in the US is comforting
I agree with all of that. Those are positive signs, especially the low number of cases being detected and immediately contained outside of China. Militating against this relief is my profound distrust of every institution involved controlling the information. Also there's the fact that China - presumably in possession of the real info - is aggressively quarantining it's ... well... basically it's entire country now. I am 100% confident that China has been under-representing the true case figures, both for exposures and for deaths. As well, the numbers aren't adding up. Every video sneaked out (they are quickly removed from Twitter, presumably by @jack placating Chinese authorities) shows every hospital in Wuhan completely filled to overflowing with people dying in hallways. Officially there are roughly 2000 cases (1975 as of last night). Wuhan has +49,000 hospital beds throughout its vast hospital system. I know it's a big city of 11 million and many of those beds were already filled with other patients, but really? With 90% of cases being reported as "not severe" that leaves 200 severe cases. Those resolve over 11-15 days. We're 46 days into this crisis, so many of those 200 putative critically sick people have recovered and moved on. Are we to believe that fewer than 200 bedridden 2019-ncov victims have totally overwhelmed a 49,000 bed hospital system? I sure don't. So the next question is "just how badly under reported is this thing?" If it's 10x under reported, then that would mean 2,000 critically ill people (and 20,000 infected). Is that enough to swamp a 49,000 bed system? I don't know, I'll leave that to our hospital experts and authorities, but it's at least a more realistic place to start which begins to align with my common sense. Is the right number 15x under reported? 20x? I just don't know yet. But those are the sorts of numbers that comport with China yanking the emergency brake, declaring a Level 1 emergency for its largest of cities including Beijing, at the expense of throwing their economy roughly into the dashboard. That's not something done lightly. The economic and financial impacts are going to be really harsh. Which means this pandemic is real. That's my thinking.

Spend 10 minutes in a spreadsheet and plug in the values, I’ve started at 1st December based on reporting on the 1st recorded infection, and I’ve assumed that it takes 7 days instead of the 7 to 10, so these figures are conservative. My conclusion is that an r0 of 3 would account for the current rate of cases, but only if every single one was reported and confirmed, which simply can’t be correct. If we assume an r0 of 4.5 and a 5% rate of reporting (37367 * 5% = 1868 confirmed tested cases out of 37367 actual infections) we come much closer to the current number (2082 confirmed test cases) in a realistic fashion.
So either the virus has an r0 of 3.0 to 4.5 (probably 3.5 or higher), or this has been going on for a lot longer.

1st case in china R0 1.5 R0 2.4 R0 3 R0 4.5
01/12/19 1 1 1 1
08/12/19 2 2 3 5
15/12/19 2 6 9 20
22/12/19 3 14 27 91
29/12/19 5 33 81 410
05/01/20 8 80 243 1845
12/01/20 11 191 729 8304
19/01/20 17 459 2187 37367

I haven’t yet read all the comments on all the threads so I apologize if I’m repeating something others have already noted many times. It seems to me like the very first thing one should consider doing to increase ones chances of overcoming the disease if caught would be helping your body and immune system be as healthy as it can now by paying more attention to what you eat! While I know there is lots of controversy over just what is the “best” diet for humans it seems like there is a pretty strong consensus that eating more vegetables, fruits, and other nutrient dense foods is a good idea.
Another thought should you or someone you know get the disease, or any other type flu for that matter, is that dairy tends to cause the body to generate more mucus/congestion. So I would absolutely avoid dairy if I was feeling sick to avoid making the congestion situation any worse. I’ve heard that carrots/carrot juice is something that can have the opposite effect, helping to reduce mucus and break up congestion. I’m not sure if this is true. Personal experience confirms that dairy definitely and noticeably increases my mucus levels, but I haven’t noticed clear cut reductions with carrots. Still carrots are one of those nutrient dense foods.
I’m not a doctor or anything remotely like that, but I thought I share these thoughts regardless since I haven’t noticed anyone addressing general nutrition to defend/fight off disease. (I should go look into getting some elderberry syrup though!)

Chris, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding’s Twitter account has apparently been erased:
And, everyone should take a good long look at this live account of global plane flights, excepting military; it’s horrifying how many flights still coming out of China’s biggest cities into the US and elsewhere: Give the map a moment to load; you can search anywhere in the world for live flights; click on the plane icon to see to and from data.

Some Practical Questions About The Coronavirus Epidemic

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, [I shortened his essay. Might want to read the original.] 1. Who pays the [workers] wages while a city is locked down? What about the thousands of migrant workers who don't have regular employers? Who pays them? .... Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away? 4. ...[M]any people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. ..[W]ouldn't it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over? How will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources? 5. The typical city has about a week's supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. ... Since the city's residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. ..... These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn't possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel..... 6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with [and isolate them]. This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus. Doctors and Nurses During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine. Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won't stop a contagion from spreading. If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with. Please study the map below before claiming this isolation is still possible. 7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus? .... [None].... Isn't sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan ... basically a PR stunt to appear to be "doing something." ... Building tent hospitals that are porous--healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.--will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won't do much to limit the contagion. 8. If the travel restrictions are [incomplete and] haphazard, then what's stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?....

Using GoogleTranslate, here’s the link to the Wuhan National Security Biological Lab (the only BSL-4 lab in China) with its impressive campus and research capabilities. (Source)
Here’s additional information from the Chinese Academy of Sciences which, as I understand it, oversees the lab in cooperation with the Wuhan municipal government. (Source)
There may be more detailed, relevant information behind their registration-only pages on these sites.
There is absolutely no public-facing information on these sites re: the 2019-nCoV. There has been deafening silence from Chinese officials and the MSM regarding the lab’s existence and function throughout this 2019-nCoV epidemic. All of the research and testing on the virus are apparently coming from Shanghi and elsewhere in China. The lab’s last post is dated 1/09/20, re: institutional evaluation which was apparently positive with no cited safety issues. There’s also an uplifting message from the lab’s director reflecting on 2019 accomplishments and 2020 plans and aspirations.
I read on one different internet post/article (?) that the lab employed about 226 people. Are they still there working, redeployed elsewhere or otherwise on (a forced) “holiday”? In addition to the theory circulating on the 'net that the virus may have “escaped” or otherwise originated from the lab, there’s some speculation that higher-up authorities were unhappy about how the Wuhan provincial government and the lab mishandled/covered-up the outbreak early on until it reached epidemic proportions. If so, then expect some heads to roll when this epidemic/pandemic subsides.
The lab appears to have several international cooperative research relationships. If the lab has effectively been taken off-line, then their colleagues in the US, France and elsewhere would catch wind of this and could shed some light on this obvious communication blackout. Inquiring minds want to know…

Helpful article articulating some nuance around R0

Chris, This is US Data but I would imagine similar in terms of % of ICU beds in China. Yes no cure as it is a Virus, But ICU supportive care IE Vasopressors, Fluids and a Ventilator can = Difference between life and death for some…
HCRIS data: In 2010 there were 2977 acute care hospitals with ICU beds. In these, there were 641,395 total acute care beds with 103,900 ICU beds (16.2% ICU beds/total beds). From 2000 to 2010, the number of critical care beds in the United States increased by 17.8%, from 88,235 to 103,900.