No one at my school seems the least bit concerned, save our Chinese students, and I have been indirectly told to stop spreading “fear” by being upfront and honest with my students. Clearly, optimism and hope for medical technology, as well as general apathy, are firmly established here in the States. I wash my hands of it.
Saw several articles that mentioned that China is using a pair of protease inhibitors (ritonavir and lopinavir - named Kaletra) to treat Wuhan virus patients. They appear to be doing some good.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/wuhan-virus-china-using-hiv-drugs-in-treatment-plan-for-patients Wang Guangfa, a respiratory expert at Peking University First Hospital in Beijing who was infected by the virus after visiting Wuhan to inspect to coronavirus patients, told China News Week earlier this week that his doctor recommended he take the HIV drugs to fight the new virus and they worked on him.I'm also guessing that as soon as China has any sort of experimental vaccine, they'll roll it out, damn the torpedoes, and hope for the best. Mandate of Heaven and all that.
Chris or others, before all of this news substantially increased over the last few days, I and others may have ordered merchandise that has/had originated in China. The question I have is, is it known whether the particles of this virus can survive outside of a living host, and be viable on non-living material? In other words, should I be concerned with shipments from China? I’ve tried to find an answer but have not been successful. Thanks!
I’m curious about this, too, and haven’t found any data. There’s a huge range of viral survival on surfaces, from a few hours to a few days or longer. I found one comment that SARS could survive 2 days. That would put air freight packages as potential vectors of the coronavirus but not items shipped by sea. But again, I haven’t found any data on this virus. Prudence suggests anything air freighted out of China should be considered a potential vector until scientific evidence arises that this virus can’t survive 2+ days on surfaces.
Dr. Fisman raises valid arguments consistent with Chris’ data integrity concerns regarding R0 and underreporting, especially of “mild” cases among younger age Chinese (vs. currently skewed case reports towards elderly). The anticipated result will be a marked increase in reported cases not necessarily due to increased transmission (which is likely to happen anyway) but to reporting of previously undercounted younger Chinese.
Excerpt: " Increased age in cases as compared to the population as a whole suggests that younger (likely milder) cases have been under-reported. As such, it would seem likely that at least part of the sudden apparent growth in case counts does not reflect changes in transmission, but rather increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases… given the large size of the epidemic as of the time of writing, some simple back-of-the-envelope math can demonstrate that large numbers of incident cases should be expected in the coming weeks, even in the face of effective control efforts. Successful control of this outbreak would be expected to take many months (again, as was the case with SARS)."
So an “upside” to any sort of dramatic under-counting of cases (due to them not being serious enough to go to the hospital, etc) is that it will end up increasing the denominator in the “case fatality ratio” - the Wuhan virus may not be nearly as deadly as it currently appears to be.
The consequences to interruptions to supply chains in healthcare, tech, food, and anything else seems like a discovery process no one wants. How much inventory do we have here to buffer it? I thought I had heard Chris or another doc say that the virus can survive for 5 days or so on surfaces because it is in a protective “envelope” which makes it hardier. I guess the data will come in as time goes on.
Very important thoughts
Two companies that have put together the herbs recommended by Stephen Harrod Buhner, an independent researcher and herbalist:
Montana Farmacy in Eureka, MT www.montanafarmacy.com
and www.coronavirusdefense.com in Canada
I do not know anything about these companies, but I have ordered one of their kits just as “insurance” should the coronavirus arrive in my area.
Chris has pointed out that the most likely way you will become infected is to touch your hand to a contaminated surface like a door handle, and then touch your faces, eyes or nose. Its easy to unconsciously do just that, especially if you are like me and wear glasses.
What you could do now is practice the habit of only touching a common surface with one hand, and only touching your face with the other. My thought is to put a big bandage on the back of one hand, and use that as a reminder as you go through the day. No one will question you if you say you cut your hand. Develop muscle memory now before a mistake could cost you.