If This Happens, It’s Over!

News & Current Events Public News & Current Events
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Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/if-this-happens-its-over/

Executive Summary

In this episode, I had an engaging conversation with David Russell from Goldcore about the current state of the gold and silver markets, the broader economic landscape, and the silent financial crisis that seems to be unfolding. We delved into the dynamics of central bank gold purchases, the implications of geopolitical tensions, and the potential future of inflation and asset markets. It’s a complex world out there, and understanding these elements is crucial for navigating the financial waters ahead.

Central Bank Gold Purchases

David shared insights into the recent trends in gold purchases, particularly by Asian central banks. He noted that these purchases are part of a broader strategy of de-dollarization, as countries seek to reduce their exposure to the US dollar. Interestingly, retail investors in the West have been largely absent from this rally, which has been driven more by institutional buyers and high-net-worth individuals.

Market Liquidity and Asset Prices

We discussed the current state of the markets, where everything seems to be going up—stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and property. David pointed out that this could be seen as an exodus from fiat currency, with investors seeking refuge in hard and digital assets. The low dividend yield on the S&P and high price-to-earnings ratios suggest that these valuations might not be sustainable.

The Silent Financial Crisis

David introduced the concept of a “silent financial crisis,” where the true state of inflation and GDP might be masked by official figures. He explained how inflation impacts different income groups differently, with lower-income individuals feeling the pinch more acutely. This hidden crisis is driving people to move into asset classes like stocks and gold, which are perceived as safer havens.

Key Data

  • 500 billion in foreign-held treasuries sold down over the last year.
  • Household exposure to stocks at an all-time high of 38.8%.
  • China reportedly bought 55 tons of gold in one month, significantly more than officially reported.

Predictions

  • Potential for 6% rates on the 10-year by the end of 2025 if current trends continue.
  • 2025 could see more all-time highs in stock markets and gold, with increased volatility.

Implications

  • Inflation is likely to continue rising, impacting purchasing power and living costs.
  • Increased volatility in financial markets could affect investment portfolios.
  • Geopolitical tensions and economic policies will play a significant role in shaping the financial landscape.
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Don’t really appreciate the embedded advertisement. How much is enough?

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Oh No! The author of your free content has advertised his own value-add offerings! One that you could lazily click past by moving a mouse a fraction of an inch.

Whatever is the world coming to?

I have not done enough for you lately, have I?

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Nearly 4 minutes long. 4 minutes!

An ad that long has the opposite effect on me. Even if I thought this was the best thing on earth, I’d rather miss out than respond positively to a 4 minute ad - btw - on content I have already paid to view.

Sorry to be negative. Though I think it’s worse when a forum becomes a place of “guru worship” where the founder cannot be criticised at all.

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Last I checked…I pay $300 per year. Not exactly free. That said, I do love you and your work. I will also let you know what I think. Peace!

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This was/is free content.

Premium never has ads.

Thanks for your feedback. I’d prefer we were discussing long rates, or gold, or something related to the content though.

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On that note Chris, how are those spidey senses right now re the ‘markets’ (air quote) and the posturing for the great taking…mine are always jangling (well at least since COVID) but right now especially so.

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Like this - we should be discussing this:

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This isn’t a good sign. It’s the opposite of a good sign, insofar as it means the Fed seems to have lost control of the long-end of things.

Here’s the longer context, the first support (green dotted arrows at ~107.5) and the danger zone at ~ 105.25.

As the price goes down, the yield goes up (allowing this chart to be compared to the above chart, which tells the same tale but is flipped opposite (so a rising yield is up, vs down).

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If we break that Oct-23 low in price, then we’ll be testing a several-decade-old series of support and resistance:

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Bust that to the downside, and next thing you know we’re looking at 6% T-Bones!

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2025 is the year we are gonna get screwed…I don’t care what anyone else says, hard assets are it.

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6% on my savings would be wonderful.

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Unless inflation is 8%. Then it wouldn’t be so swell.

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I actually love the music in the ad. It’s kinda cheesy, but it makes me laugh. 4 minutes of relaxation in the midst of an unrelenting Chinese water torture environment that we are now living in. I’m glued to the news, waiting for a “thing” to happen. I don’t know how long I can keep this up. Thanks, Chris, for all that you do.

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I was glad to hear David highlight the Michael Saylor position on BTC.
I read it on X the day it was published and had the same reaction.
I’ve really tried to be open minded on Crypto’s, but I can’t help but come back to - “if this stuff really was all that, wouldn’t it be a lot more popular”?
Just my opinion there.
I don’t see that declaring the dollar obsolete and telling literally everyone they have to get BTC now is going to be the catalyst to launch it as the new world reserve currency.
Call me a skeptic, (and a Luddite), but I just don’t think these kinds of things can happen by will and force.

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I would gladly save money at 0% if inflation was also 0%

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Why is triple x (aged version) doing gold core?

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I’m thinking its time to price everything in gold and not the gov inflation paper. No point in swimming against the current. :man_swimming:

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I’ve heard you talk about BTC a few times now, and every time, I cringed and laughed. I’ve been in technology more or less my whole life. I’ve been into crypto for the last 4-5 years.
I don’t understand every financial aspect we have on this planet, as I’m not an accountant or any kind of financial adviser either. But if there is something I understand quite well (and still have a lot more I could understand), it is BTC. I understand how it works, why it’s there, what it does, and why it’s needed.

Each time I hear you talk about BTC, I’ve noticed that you have some holes in your understanding and I firmly believe that it could be contributing to your negative stance about it.

Putting something like FartCoin together with BTC is laughable. That’s like putting the S&P together with a pile of mashed potatoes. Sure everyone buys it when they want to cook a roast. Goes up during Christmas and ThanksGiving (just using a stupid example) but it’s not the same as the S&P for investing. FartCoin is dumb. So is almost all of the 20k+ shitcoins that exist. You’re right about people wanting to put money into a place; for them, it’s about trying to make a quick buck. It’s people not understanding markets, market caps and prices and how they all interact. Thinking they will all win big when in reality they are playing in a casino. BTC is not that.

As for Sayler. We all know he’s a bit of a ****. We all get his motives. But at the same time, he’s not stupid. He is just like any other market maker out there. Arbitraging on a fast-moving market. He’s doing things that the banks do, on a much smaller scale as the market isn’t anywhere near as big, but making big bucks off it. Cuz he understands it and the majority of the planet and people even participating in it, who get scared out of it just as easily as they get scared into it, don’t get it yet. He’s simply profiteering off their stupidity.

If you want to understand the cryptocurrency markets. Look at BTC closely (not at a high level). Look at ETH, SOL, and SUI. Look at what they are doing. Don’t care for the price. The price means Jack S***. Then go further and look at things like Illuvium, Beam, Superverse etc… Look at what they are doing, what they are trying to achieve. That is just 3 narratives, BTC, L1’s, and Gaming out of quite a number more.

When you mentioned the fact that Google, might, crack the SHA256 algorithm that BTC is based on. I have to be quite blunt and say. Good Luck. You did definitely make me laugh though. If that does ever happen. BTC is the LAST thing that will be on anybody’s mind for problems we will have. Everything in today’s world will be useless. Including the value of Gold. Everything from the fiat banking system to GPS and the ability for planes to get from one place to the other. Bank ATMs won’t work. Bank tellers won’t be able to transact. We will be back at the level of seashells as a form of currency as no one will be able to know how much gold anyone else has without counting from scratch. Computers and the entire World Wide Web will no longer exist as we know it. Will it be able to be fixed so everything work again and it is non-hackable? Yes. But everything will need to be upgraded. Whether it is just the worldwide web or if it is BTC. It all runs on the same f not similar, if not worse off encryption.

I’ve been hovering around here and listening to you since I discovered your channel right at the beginning of the COVID fiasco. Before it was even a thing to the greater community where you had just separated your channel from the other person (whose name escapes me). I know, Chris, you are great at doing your research. It’s your biggest quality and it’s the thing I’ve admired about you the entire time. In fact, I’m quite jealous haha. But before you bag out BTC and the entire crypto market, please do a bit more research into it. I’m always here if you need to ask questions and I’m sure there would be others that are willing to teach you more too that I can guide you towards.

Sending this to you, and to the community with Love.

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About the few bitcoin addresses that hold most bitcoin:

  1. Are these numbers corrected for empty addresses? Because there are many empty or nearly empty addresses, containing like 0,0000001 BTC, that have been used once and gotten rid of afterwards for safety reasons.
  2. Wealth usually distributes itself according to the Pareto distribution. Which means most of the wealth is in the hands of the 10% richest, and of those 10% most of the wealth is in that 10%, etc. Jordan Peterson talked about it. He describes it as a law of nature.
  3. While it is probably true that most of the BTC is held by baseball-cap-wrong-way-around-wearing people, I don’t know if that matters very much. I rather would have them having it than the people currently having most of the wealth. But I agree of course that it would be best when we could start a system where everybody could get in on… But that is probably not going to happen.

I don’t currently own any BTC, but have in the past. Even though we are in a bull market now, and the price will probably rise significantly further, I don’t feel like I want to hold it right now. I do own some BSV, which is supposed to be the original BTC protocol. It is a fork off of BTC. It is super fast and cheap to transact, and it could do all the transactions in the world that would be needed as opposed to BTC. But I heard it isn’t as safe as BTC. because the miners/transaction nodes aren’t well distributed. But I don’t know too much about it really.

A reason to push BTC and meme coins:

I feel like BTC, meme coins, etc. are all popularized by ‘them’ to distract us from the true potential of crypto, which is value transfer without a middleman. All value, like houses, food, whatever, there is no need for banks, middlemen, regulators. And I think they are afraid of this. To lose control. That is why they give us BTC, which is impractical but a good store of value. Reggie Middleton patented DEFI in 2014 already, the patent was finally granted in 2021 I believe. But his business and invention have been completely destroyed by the SEC. It is worth to look it up. He is on Twitter, shadow banned of course.

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Just to quickly answer your questions there:

  1. None of the addresses that have 1 Satoshi (0.0000000001 BTC) for example are ever gotten rid of. That’s not how it works. Once a wallet is created it lives forever on chain. If it were gotten rid of, BTC couldn’t work. Every transaction is recorded and everyone is important for the next one to work. Whenever you typically get “there are this many wallets been created” in a report, they normally filter out the ones where wallets have minimal amounts in them or just have simply not been used and report on what is left over. Think seasonal adjusted. It’s all on chain and all can be read. Safety is in the fact that no one knows the keys and no one can guess a wallet’s key (believe me I’ve tried) to figure out which wallet has what in it. You can’t access the wallet unless you know the key. It’s safe.

  2. This is my point of view, but even though some wallets have a vast majority of the wealth now, doesn’t mean that come many years down the track they will still have all that wealth. It will spread out because there is a finite supply anyhow (21 million). They may start with 10%, but if they have to sell to do business or whatnot, it will just simply spread out.

  3. Point 2 kinda makes point 3 mute. Who cares. If they figured it out before the others, power to them. In the end, it will just spread out if they don’t know how to keep it anyhow. Financial literacy FTW.

Don’t care for the bull market. The bull market is only good if you want to sell it and buy something with fiat or if you want to accumulate it at or near the bottom when it’s a Bear. Just like any other market.

You’re right about the BTC v BSV security problem That’s what makes BTC the winner. The more nodes the better, gives more security to the network meaning it’s harder to be hacked or double spent etc. Look into the history of BSV a bit tho. Cheaper fees and faster transactions aren’t everything :slight_smile:

You’re right about the meme coins being created by the “them” to get popularised though. It’s certainly polarizing. BTC was built to remove control from those who want to control everything about our lives. Removal of the middlemen who take our money for doing practically nothing is the whole point. It’s your money, not theirs.

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One could also argue that BTC has been hijacked to become super secure but clunky and unsuitable for many (small) transactions per second. This makes it suitable as store of value, but not as money. Hereby the control of money/currency remains with the governments and central banks.

As I understood, this was not the intent of the bitcoin whitepaper. It was designed to be a form of money, and not a form of “digital gold”.
That is why I am in BSV, to support the true essence of bitcoin, a form of digital money. Hopefully the security will improve… It would if more nodes would come around.

Because the system now supports and advertises for bitcoin, and also everybody (at work for example) talks about it now, I have become a bit hesitant to hold it.