If This Happens, It’s Over!

Let me paraphrase:

“You need to StuDy it more!”

“The shitcoins have nothing to do with Bitcoin - totally not the same!”

While I certainly could study everything more, the admonition that something which wants to be money - a distributed form of trust - has to be studied by lifetime tech geeks to even hope of beginning to understand it, then it’s not really suited to be money.

This is a main flaw in digital assets; all of them. If decades of deep experience are required to understand them, they lack what a gold coin in one’s hand immediately has by its core essence. Trust.

Further, I submit that even the most deeply enmeshed digital developers cannot tell us the most basic thing about Bitcoin - forming the initial seed of doubt - which is " Who wrote the white paper?"

Was it the CIA? The NSA? An authentically gifted solitary private citizen? If the latter, can anybody explain why the government allowed it to have a free run without completely blocking it? None of us know out here in the cheap seats.

Further, can anybody explain why we’d need to have a protocol that requires mining and its vast energy demands and how those demands are going to be met in a future of less? Is it not possible to develop a non-mining reconciliation system? Of course it is. So why would we assume the energy-intensive mining protocol is ‘the one’ that will survive?

Finally, what do BTC and shitcoins have in common?

A super high correlation to global liquidity:

And a super high correlation to risk-on assets:

I don’t need to study anything to grasp the implications of these correlations. We’re at the tail-end of a superbubble, itself composed of a set of nested bubbles cutting across all financial asset classes, of which BTC is one of the latest…and it’s trading as a risk-on asset.

Prediction: When it’s ‘risk-off’ time, BTC will fall in a correlated fashion.

Let me repeat myself - plant a garden.

Tangible, hard assets are the only historically proven way to evade the worst of a fiat bubble’s terrible effects. Maybe BTC will secure a place in future history books as another way to avoid a bubble’s pain, but let’s at least admit that’s an unproven hypothesis.

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