I’m not good at interpreting data so I thought I’d provide this for Chris & the team and anyone else interested to check out as it seems to suggest increased severity for Delta. Please chime in with your thoughts. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2
Thanks
Annie
Just saying ...
Funding Statement
The research was supported by a grant to DNF from the Canadians Institutes for Health Research (2019 COVID-19 rapid researching funding OV4-170360)
Interpretation The progressive increase in transmissibility and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs will result in a significantly larger, and more deadly, pandemic than would have occurred in the absence of VOC emergenceThanks for this follow up Chris, it answers the immediate questions I have on what you posted in the video.
The vaccination rate and total population of > 50 is required data, as is the underlying health conditions, as you say, of the unvaccinated > 50.
Academic policy wonks, wouldn’t know a sick person if they coughed on them. Unfortunately this is who the Politicians chose to listen to, or use for support.
If the variants, especially D are so bad why are the major hospitals in Toronto celebrating few Covid admissions? and few patients in ICUs for Covid. Toronto General, the largest, invited the press in for a party celebrating no Covid patients in their ICU.
Sunnybrook Hospital, 2nd largest, is dismantling their 12 emergency MASH tent units in a parking lot built to manage the anticipated peak and protect their facility because they were never needed.
This was recently announced on the radio, followed by the government threatening that we better behave because of the dangerous D variant or they will lock us up again. Their credibility is quickly diminishing. Let’s see what their next trick is.
How did Bush express it? Fool me once and ???
This is from the study:
Prior to May 1, 2021, Delta cases were only detected by whole genome sequencing. After May 1, 2021, all screened specimens not identified as an N501Y-positive VOC or another variant were classified as probable Delta VOC infections.
JimH,
If I’m reading that graph correctly, the vaccine has about two months of high efficacy before a new breakthrough strain dominates. That means boosters every three months and VAERS reports to go along with them.
There are four major risks associated with high numbers of infections. These are an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, more ‘Long-COVID’; workforce absences (including in the NHS); and the increased risk of new variants emerging. The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.
How is this not a First Amendment violation if the White House directing the censorship?
https://nypost.com/2021/07/15/white-house-flagging-posts-for-facebook-to-censor-due-to-covid-19-misinformation/
Let’s not get emotional on the reported 4 million COVID deaths so far.
People die. Luckily I would say, imagine the resource fest we had if no one perished, how unfortunate and deeply emotional on an individual level it can be.
150.000 a day on average, about 55 Million a year and still we grow in numbers. Even with a raging virus around.
Eyes on the ball !
Also:
We don't know that these people died OF Covid or WITH Covid. In a sample size as large as a country, hey, people die. It happens. Heart attacks, strokes, etc are a part of the daily routine. So how do we know that these people who were reported as dying of Covid actually did? We don't, and our prior experience says that there's a lot of overcounting because of the arbitrary "died any time within 28 days of a positive test" inclusion criteria.
I think that at this point we can’t focus on vaxxine efficacy. This will only sidetrack us. We do know by now what cheap alternatives could help us, and possibly negate the effect of the vaxxines. Why fall in the trap of a narrow discussion topic?
First, there are too many unknowns:
- Underlying conditions?
- Vitamine D status?
- Deaths <28 days?
- How are cases counted?
- How are the covid deaths counted?
- Which vaxxine?
- Why the fast difference between Israel and UK?
Short answer: prior COVID19 infected people are 6.72 times less likely to get reinfected, vs those who have been vaccinated. So if the vaccine is 85% protective, prior COVID is 98% protective. Roughly speaking. n=6,029,291.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762 With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID. By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.0.0578 (vax IR) / 0.0086 (prior COVID IR) = 6.72093 This, in a country where 57% of the total population are fully vaccinated.
Hi Dave,
I kind of came to the same numbers. I think however that we can conclude that it doesn’t matter for TPTB and the majority of people. The facts do not change the narrative (yet). Imo it is not about the numbers, but how the numbers are used. Engaging in discussions about the supposed danger or reduced impact of variants is not a discussion we should get involved in anymore. No rational discussion is possible with hysterical people, naive believers, and technocratic psychopaths. We are not able to change the official narrative, just like the dissenters in 1936/1945.
What we can do, is to passively and actively oppose the mainstream madness: support the groups that are asking for a more rational approach. Ensure that we are prepared in terms of supplements, when the budget allows it, maybe add some extra for friends and family. We can start, or support novel initiatives for energy conversion, energy storage etc. We can join the greatest monetary “F. the bankers” revolution by diversifying in crypto (those with a real usecase). We can start gardens. Maybe, for many of us, this politicized virus can lead to novel insights in our own raison d’etre, that is, are we the same persons as before this “crisis”.
My prediction is that this summer, autumn and winter, the situation will explode: in terms of “cases”, in terms of social pressure, reduced freedom, false narratives, mindblowingly wrong interpretations of the data, and yes, also in avoidable deaths.
I kind of hoped that the vaxxines would have a significant positive impact on the number of deaths —I ignore cases, because these numbers are the embodiment of statistical lies— but alas, no can do.
Grts, Dave
I think if everyone watches the new video posted by Redacted1 “How Sars-Cov-2 gain of function research violated international law” it will change the conversation greatly. It looks very much like not only is the virus a bio weapon, but also the vaccines. Sorry, I can never make links work here.
I was thinking the same thing. More 50+ have been vaccinated so it isn’t a stretch that if older people are more likely to succumb to covid that would explain the numbers. Also like chris said <50 and > 50 are not good categories because in lower numbers you are including a large number of people that rarely have issues with covid.
Peak Prosperity focuses on science in general and recently Covid related evidence.
Here’s part of a chart from the WHO:
Dr. Greger, on nutritionfacts.org likes to say that the three most important decisions you will make today are what you’ll have for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
If you ever get bored with diving into Covid, think about looking into the science related to the number one cause of death. There are literally dozens of doctors and scientists who are not funded by the food industry, or big pharma and have spent their life studying disease and nutrition. They stand at the top of my personal hero/mentor list.
He’s not my personal favorite, but one of the doctors you have probably heard of is Dr. Dean Ornish. Others include, in no particular order, Dr. Neal Bernard, Dr. John McDougall, Dr. Terry Mason, Nathan Pritkin…
Time to stop. People only look into the science that they are willing to absorb. Nutrition rarely makes that cut.
Hi Les,
Absolutely, nutritional health is essential, I would add environmental health to that list as well. I will check out the names you have mentioned above. And point you to Zach Bush MD in return 
- figure out the new variant requires a vaccine modification (1 month?)
- design the new mrna: a few days?)
- some sort of minimal testing to make sure it really works (animal challenges, human trials?, does safety need to be tested again?): weeks to months
- manufacture, distribute and inject on a massive scale: months.
- add the 5 weeks from first dose to full immunity (assuming 2 doses) or 2 weeks (assuming 1 dose).
QB, where you are off on your timing calculations is that the manufacturing process would have started immediately, not waiting for any testing period. We must maintain Warp Speed, afterall.
Because there is zero chance that the newly formulated vaccine will be less safe than the current one. And of course, the current one is “safe and effective”, at least as long as I ignore the three 2nd order connections plus one extended family member who experienced a significant and ongoing adverse event as well as the 5 strangers I encountered in the emergency room, a family member’s hospital room-mate or random person talking to me in a waiting room who all, to varying degrees of certainty were suffering from moderate (1) to severe (4) adverse events. All of these include 5 neurological issues (1 severe tremors, 1 Parkinson’s, 2 with seizures, 1 couldn’t lift arms above shoulders), 2 bleeding issues (little bruises all over body, stroke), 1 heart issue (possible myocarditis in a ~20 year old) and one sensory or neurological issue (vestibular disquilibrium bad enough that she could not drive or continue with her pilates practice).
If it only takes 3 months for mutation to render the vaccine non-efficacious, the vaccine development will naturally lag far behind this mutation rate meaning they can only vaccinate for the last VOC. Even at warp speed, they are still fighting yesterdays battles, and based on Dr VB’s theory, would only have very selective and specialized immunity for that prior strain which overrides the latent immune response rendering the immune system effectively useless.
With these boosters though, the question will become, do they combine with previous antibody programming, override it, or are overridden by them? The drug companies would need to have a booster available and distributed every two months to keep up with the mutation even if it worked perfectly, and frankly there’s no way to predict which direction the virus will be mutating to get ahead of it.
What we DO know is that the vaccine adverse events have been catastrophic for several hundred thousand people world wide. Some anecdotes from my own life, a buddies co worker had been having brain fog since she got the second pfizer shot in january, yesterday she had a stroke that left her mute. She is an ICU nurse and is 48 years old.
But they’ll tell you these things happen all the time to perfectly healthy people.
Last Friday, I called a funeral home to confirm a lead on increased deaths. They said the summer is their slowest time and even through Covid, they were at normal loads. Right now their freezer is full, every funeral home in the region is full, one is bringing in a trailer to handle the bodies.
If Covid didn’t do this and nothing before had either, there is something else causing these deaths and strokes. I don’t need a fancy sales pitch to sell me on the societal change recently. And for that ICU nurse, that was a six month fuse on that bomb. Age is obviously a factor for the length of fuse, but I expect September and October are going to be a tipping point. And by Christmas, we’re not going to have much to celebrate.