I shared this interview around - I have listened to hundreds of financial podcasts - this is one of the bests. I listened to pieces of it multiple times and may listen to the entire one again.
Sandpuppy - i want to read the info you shared here on BTC. I have .267 BTC so just a little incase it goes to a million but I have a hard time fully understanding BTC backed by air - IO guess because I am old I am drawn to gold and silver.
Bushhog - He did say folks who leveraged gold in the depreciating currency lost money - I wish I understood that idea better. Think he was saying do not use leverage. Seems if you borrowed money when inflation was taking off one would pay it back easier.
Digital Silver and gold using LODE.one AGX AUX coins is going to be a big deal. Carry silver on your mobile phone anywhere in world. Buy it when physical hard to get or high costs due to premiums and taxes. I recently bought a little digital gold and silver on my phone and signed up for the LODE debit card. I want to keep up with technology and be in a position to buy more to complement/diversify from: physical, miners, PSLV
check out LODE’s progress (much has happened in last few weeks and will in the next few) - lots of detail business plans and strategy documents
https://members.lode.one/register/joinwith/2768776680/link
btc is not backed by air . it is backed by the strongest most powerful computer network the planet has ever seen. it is backed by thousands of miners and people running nodes. it is in fact the soundest money ever created on planet earth.
gold has value simply because people say it has value. most of those people use it for jewelry. as a matter of fact 78% of gold usage is jewelry. as a store of value in the last 10 years it is about on par with a savings account.
i usually don’t pay too much attention to these interviews since i am not interested in the stock market and i keep up with macro trends daily on real vision. but this was completely different.
what i found really entertaining was the dismay written all over adam taggart’s face when luke said how much he allocated to bitcoin. adam taggart’s response was classic pp. “well what do you see as the risks”? it was like the dismal btc 101 interview with alex saunders. which was anything but btc 101.
the circuits were certainly blown when luke gromen a very well respected financial analyst said he is into bitcoin. thoroughly enjoyed it and am going to watch it again
IMO we’ll see a combination of both inflation and deflation:
Raging inflation for food.
Moderate inflation for medical supplies, basic meds, generators, guns and ammo, workhorse cars and trucks.
Deflation for everything else like real state, wages, luxury items.
MM -
Boy, you really misread me.
You have a long-standing habit of stating your assumptions as truth that can come off as quite condescending.
I’ve been so busy lately that I haven’t stepped in to deliver this feedback earlier. But now that it’s on my radar, please review our Site Posting Guidelines & Rules to refresh yourself with the expected etiquette here – not just towards me, but to all PP.com commenters.
If you don’t adjust, moderation will be the next step.
As an FYI, there were zero “blown circuits” because an important part of the reason I asked Luke to come on the show is BECAUSE he favors Bitcoin. A number of viewers wanted to hear his rationale for owning it.
I had planned to get to the topic sooner in the interview, but Luke was delivering such great answers I didn’t want to shortchange the conversation.
AT: I had planned to get to the topic sooner in the interview, but Luke was delivering such great answers I didn’t want to shortchange the conversation.
That was a dang good interview job, no BS. Luke was indeed “delivering”; I haven’t seen all of Luke’s work, but I’ve never seen his thoughts BTC so clearly expressed as you pried out of him here.
My fear about BTC? Even if it displaces gold through time (to date it’s basically 10 years vs 1,000+ years for gold, no competition) it faces a 3-way risk: 1. A better-designed crypto could displace it, 2. The nation states/central banks could unify to outlaw/attack it esp if it becomes a real risk, 3. the currency collapse we face may cause central banks to create a shortage of gold while BTC languishes in comparison as the banks ignore it. IOW, it could go the way of GameStop, while gold may see its biggest gains ever.
Luke humbly says the “technologists” think #1 won’t happen, but #2 & #3 he just ignored so it’s safe to say he’s simply too intelligent to take a position on something so uncertain. But he gave a clear enough answer to infer a position so I call it a win for you. Thanks again for this interview.
Adam - Thank you. Ive been waiting for somebody to throw a rope around that steer.
MKI - Good point about the risks. I would add one risk for BTC being that it very well might be a conditioning mechanism to get people used to digital currency. When its fully accepted the government and the fed will move out from behind the scenes and take hold of it.
My main objection to bitcoin? Its too volatile. Moreover, right now its on the high end of its volatility curve. If there was a time to invest in Bitcoin, you missed it. Remember the golden rule; buy low sell high. Its simple but almost nobody does it Fear Of Missing Out [ FOMO ] rules the decisions of most investors.
Bitcoin is a highly speculative, highly volatile gamble. It is the purest game of ‘greater fool’. And right now strikes me as the worst time to buy in…when everybody is talking about it, when its advocates have reached peak obnoxiousness. No way. If I had any now Id be selling. Talk to me about bitcoin at the beginning of the next cycle when the talk has quieted down and its advocates have been humbled.
@brushhog, regarding bitcoin: We are here on 03.07.21 compared to previous 2 cycles. Worst case, about 1/2 of the way to the top in this cycle. Low end high this time: $100,000. Very possibly almost thrice that ($288,000).
Retail has only been on-scene in any numbers for 2 months. They’re just building momentum. The new participation so far has been institutional, and they’re not playing hit-and-run, they’re buying as a hedge on the increasingly fragile dollar. More institutions will come in over the next 2 quarters now that the market cap is at the trillion dollar level, and right as supply becomes critically short, so “number go up.”
Most newly purchased coins are going into off-chain wallets - that’s institutions holding for the long term, not traders prepared for a quick exit, nor under-informed retail gamblers who barely understand wallets.
The peak for this cycle will come in late fall to early winter: between October and January. With all the institutional demand, which will grow over the next couple years, it’s increasingly likely the next pull-back will not be 60-80% as in the past, but in the 30-40% range, with a much faster rebound. Some analysts wonder if this is the last cycle - meaning the demand will keep the price climbing with no more setbacks than the 20-30% consolidation and sideways chop that we’ve been experiencing these last few weeks. That’s just about over, now.
Consolidation is a good thing, of course: shakes out the weak hands, reduces available trading supply, and sets the base for the next leg up.
Very interesting, thank you.
“btc is not backed by air . it is backed by the strongest most powerful computer network the planet has ever seen. it is backed by thousands of miners and people running nodes.”
I think this assessment needs some clarification / correction.
BTC is not “backed” by computers or energy in the traditional sense / definition of the word. “Backing” implies a reserve set aside, amd often available for redemption. That’s not the case for BTC, since I can not “redeem” BTC for the underlying energy / computing power. (That’s part of my gripes with BTC evangelists - they frequently change the meaning of words or apply a new definition, all of which makes things seem very legit, but it’s actually blurring the lines.)
IMO, the correct way to state this is that BTC was created by and is maintained / upheld by computing power and energy. That is NOT to say BTC could not exist w/o. BTC can be stored in a cold wallet, not needing any energy. The energy / computing power is needed once a transaction is supposed to take place. The computing ensures legitimacy of the blockchain and its underlying BTC value.
Interestingly, this is not unlike gold. You can compare this to assaying gold bars. There is a cost involved in that. What makes the gold vs. BTC comparison fascinating is that the cost for assaying BTC is fixed (regardless of underlying BTC amount). With gold, one would not assay smaller forms of gold (like well recognized coins), because these are specifically created to be easily recognizable and evaluated (weight, size, density). Simple tools can do that for almost no cost. (and I have never heard of a tungsten filled gold eagle). However, for larger gold amounts good delivery bars), that cost can be quite high.
That’s one of the reasons why BTC will less likely to be a “transaction digital currency”, but rather a digital reserve asset.
When I think about resiliance, I have a certain image in mind how to become resiliant. More locally. Less complicated. Less dependend on large systems. Less dependend on technology. Consuming way, way less energy. Using simpler technology. Short supply chains. Grow your own food. Back to basics. Barter and trade in precious metals.
That image has nothing to do with romance or a nostalgic longing to the good-old-days. This image I have because the collapse of Environment, Energy and thus Economy which are forcing us to it. Of course we will have high-tech available but when electricity costs $90, mommy will not allow little price or princess to go on the Internet to play an online game or check Facebook every 30 seconds.
When I look at the podcasts of Adam about financial resiliancy I always have the idea that this has one leg in the “now”-paradigm and one leg in the “then”-paradigm. Crypto’s are, in my opinion, part of the “now”-paradigm, like Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, McDonalds.
When the big hit comes. When we have to cut energy-consumption to 10%, this will shake the tree very, very hard. The bigger the bullshit, the sooner it will fall on the ground. Tesla going first, Apple going next. In the end only the most necessary will survive.
well well i knew a " correction" would be coming forthwith. i’m psychic that way.
actually the market is flooded with fake gold coins. mostly they come from china. i was first made aware of this back in 07 when i loaded up. in anticipation of the meltdown.
https://www.coinscarats.com/post/fake-gold-silver-coins-online
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/glitters-not-gold-fake-gold-silver-coins-flooding-market-n591201
bitcoin cannot be counterfeited. big difference and valuable difference between analog, traditional gold and digital gold.
so you might end up with something “tangible” but worthless.
you pays your money and you takes you chances.
I believe that there are 2 underlying assumption that causes trouble with bitcoin in us older folks. The first is that we think of bitcoin as a thing and apply value metrics useful with things to it.
We are used to valuing things: used cars, jewelry, winter coats, stock, houses, land etc. What is that thing worth?
But money has no use as a thing. It is only a symbolic representation that can be used to facilitate trade of actual things. Consider glass beads, marks on a ledger, Ones and Zeros in a bank’s computer archives. In themselves not worth much.
Consider this thing.
And compare it to this thing.
As things they are nearly identical. 6.14 inches x 2.6 inches, heavy paper, ornate and complex green ink, a picture of a president…
If you carefully compared these pieces of paper and attempted to value them as things using conventional metrics a terrible error would occur.Their value comes from the role that they can play in human commerce. A role given to them by their symbolic value.
The value of money only exists in the symbolic realm.---------------- The second source of confusion is the comparison of the price trajectory of an immature form of money with a mature form. Immature forms still have people coming to recognize their advantage and converting funds into the newer form. This causes a price rises. Upon maturity, the price of the new superior form of money should become stable, level and show little volatility. This rising price is confused with the rapidly rising price of a stock or a beloved flower bulb. There is a failure to recognize that many have caught on to the true value potential of the new money and are buying in. A revolution in the way of doing things is happening.
Consider a metaphorical example.
In a small town everyone tills the soil by hand. They have always done it this way. One day a traveler comes through with a horse and improvises a harness and plow. He shows them how he tills a field with his plow. After a period of suspicion and rejection, the towns people realize the value of the horse plow and pile in buying up horses and plow making supplies causing the prices to rise rapidly. If you were to look at the rise in prices alone, it would be possible to mistake the rising horse prices as "a speculative bubble" in this "newfangled contraption." But this would be inaccurate. The price rise was driven by true utility. A true revolution in farming technique was occurring.I want to clearly acknowledge that there are risks to bitcoin. This has been mentioned may many smart and respected PPers. That is the reason that only 25% of my savings, not 100%, is in this form of money.
“Which of the above coins is real? It can be extremely hard to tell, especially when the weights and dimensions of the coins are identical. ” (Quoted from MM link)
Well, that’s nonsense - weight and dimensions can’t be identical - gold has a very specific (and high) density.
Average Joe wouldn’t know the difference, but avg. Joe would get duped on crypto as well.
You always need to be knowledgeable in the subject matter you are investing in, or pay a premium to have a trusted party do it for you.
Sandpuppy continue to appreciate your thoughtful contributions.
IMHO 25% is a lot in anything these days especially something so new and limited (in adoption) like BTC. Of course if you are correct re BTC you will be one happy guy one day. Diversification in non fiat based (ALT) investments makes a lot of sense and would seem to be necessary seeing we have NO idea what bad things are coming our way Except there are bad unintended consequences for all the economic bad behavior.
I do have a little bit of BTC safely tucked away on a hard wallet and hope it does go to a million $$ - then I will wish I had 25% LOL. When BTC increases in value I sure hope to see all different types of gold and silver options also increasing including digital gold and silver for many of the same reasons you reference for BTC.
Good luck to us all
rick
my assumptions about your stance and the general pp stance about bitcoin is based on years of careful observation of what get covered and what does not. and also how it gets covered.
there is a dearth of quality discussion here on pp by the owners and the members on crypto. the last coverage by pp was the interview i cited with alex saunders entitled “bitcoin 101” alex is very knowledgeable and articulate on the subject. i was heartened to see him here and thought with the title “bitcoin 101” there would ensue a good introduction to bitcoin for the members here who clearly do not understand the space , which btw has grown from zero to $50k today. that interview was a major disappointment. your questions were mainly a rehash of much of the fud around btc. it was anything but btc 101.
i have also contacted pp about arranging an interview with brian armstrong the ceo of coinbase, numerous times. i have not even received a polite no thank you. btw coinbase is the largest crypto exchange in the u.s. and has 7000 institutions and over 40 million customers world wide. it is preparing to go public with a dpo. current market valuation of over $100 billion up from 8 billion in 2018. i have also suggested other people knowledgeable in the space like andreas antonopolous.
i have posted regularly on crypto, in an effort to provide information to help people become resilient financially. i post “actionable” ways to navigate the crypto space. now from my perspective i have done that with no expectation of any kind of reward. not even a pat on the back. i spend hours everyday researching crypto and have for 9 years. on pp i have fielded every bit of fud from what i call fudsters. i call them that because fud is all they offer to the discussion. it is the same fud over and over again by the same people. so if i seem condescending then so be it. i find nothing constructive for the discussion or this site to continually try to derail any discussion of crypto. i get that this site is what it is. it is a site for preppers who are pm bugs. it is populated mainly by boomers who are interested in the preservation of wealth rather than its creation. it is an analog, legacy population. that is fine. this site does not offer much to the digital millennials who don’t have wealth to preserve, who have actually been screwed by the boomer generation. they are in need of new ways of generating wealth. the digital financial system offers that to them. defi has grown from around $686 million to $15.6 billion in one year. there are great opportunities to generate financial independence. for example . if one were to have put $1000 in btc 10 years ago and one woluld have put $1000 in gold one would now be financially independent with the crypto and one would have lost money with gold. the data is crystal clear. now i am not suggesting in any way that pp promote crypto but it would be nice if there were a space here for intelligent data based dialog.
now you own this site and i completely understand if you find what i have to offer unpalatable to you and your goals here. i actually only got back on here because of the excellent coverage of the virus. i have gotten a lot of pm’s asking about crypto so i have felt it worthwhile to continue to post and field the fud and the insults (recently called a jerk) you are well within your rights to do whatever you wish whether that be “moderation” or send me to vacation with granny. or the people here can as you have said take what you need and leave the rest.
i will point out something that you might consider. real vision added a crypto channel last year and added 50k new subscribers in one month. just as a business model being a little more crypto “friendly” might be a good idea.
ps out of respect for you an chris and this site i have been posting lying on my back with one finger for weeks, due to an injured right arm. so my patience with fud is very thin right now.
experts in the pm space would clearly publish nonsense.
my mistake
non experts would clearly know better
I just have to say something here. Your whole post just reeks of defensiveness, self importance and immaturity. Not once in that whole diatribe did you take RESPONSIBILITY for your shitty behavior.
Yes you were called a jerk [ I saw remember that post ], but thats not the point, is it? The point is not that you were called one, its that you were ACTING like one. But that seems to have bounced right off your poor-put-upon head. Now here again you are being warned by the site creator about the same thing and instead of considering that YOU might be the problem you turn it into a bitcoin persecution.
This site is not a bitcoin site. Bitcoin is covered but its about alot more than one thing. So your recommendations for bitcoin hosts werent taken. So now you are going to come here everyday and crap all over the site because your mad?
Whatever benefit you bring here in regards to bitcoin knowledge, you destroy with your insults, snark, immaturity, and anger. In my opinion you bring this site way down.
Even your final snarky remark is so telling…“MY ARM hurts”. So your arm hurts, kid. You think that gives you an excuse to treat people that way? Your arm is YOUR problem. Man up and stop making a damn fool of yourself.
I believe that there are 2 underlying assumption that causes trouble with bitcoin in us older folks.
I think this misses the real discussion.
Most people just ignore recent history. Quick summary: the international system always used gold/PM as money. But this was replaced by the USA who had 1) won WWII thus owned most of the world’s gold and 2) outlawed gold’s private use to force everyone to use USD (if they wanted to trade). It worked; the USA became a benevolent hegemony.
What is happening today, as Luke points out, is truly historical. The USD’s unopposed fiat game is coming to an end. The US is no longer a total hegemony that can continue to enforce USD fiat (as much as TBTB, even most non USA nations) wish it to continue.
Enter gold and BTC to this historical moment. What makes gold and BTC so different (and thus sparking this debate) is a) gold is used by central banks, and b) BTC is only a decade old and used by few institutions. It is the newness of BTC that makes it so scary for most conservative people (young or old) because money requires widespread acceptance over time a long time (save today, spend tomorrow), and BTC is in her baby steps of social acceptance. It may fall out of favor, or just be replaced by an “approved” version by the TPTB. This has happened to every single currency but gold to date. Most know something like BTC could dominate and eliminate gold. But is BTC really it, and if so, is the time now? This IMO is the debate, not that people are too old or too dumb to understand money.
MM - I do (for the most part) appreciate your comments on crypto - I learn from the discourse and the different points of view. Please don’t make this a “PP hates crypto” thing, because that’s not true.
Some people are skeptics, and that’s ok. You started your journey early, give others time to catch up.
It’s your attitude that’s the buzz kill. And if people are dismissive, please don’t take it personally. Respond kindly and matter of factly, or don’t respond. Just let them be wrong (if that’s what you think), but don’t treat them with contempt.