Hello and welcome to this next installment of the Finance U podcast.
In retrospect, this was the theme:
Today, Paul Kiker and I continue our conversations about:
Silver
Gold (my favorite Tier 0 asset)
The Crack-Up boom (and $400 billion of recent ETF flows)
Cracks in the AI bubble
The market risks of Trump’s sudden rearrangements of the geopolitical landscape
The profound error of the Biden administration in weaponizing the dollar against both sovereign and private Russian assets
Japan’s continuing bond crisis
The fact that the US shale boom is o.v.e.r.
The trick is going to be hanging onto what you’ve got. The gyrations are going to be extraordinary.
Hanging on for dear life is going to be a dominant wealth preservation strategy … as long as one is nimble too.
Sounds contradictory, but that’s what a really good financial advisor and wealth manager can and will do for you.
Make of this what you will, but there’s a huge push to get into stocks at a pace that is far beyond the usual norms.
Despite those $400 billion of flows (in 1 month!) you know what’s kind of odd? Paul noted that stocks aren’t really up all that much, indicating that there might be a good bit of what Wall Street calls ‘distribution’ going on.
In other words, be careful out there, everyone. This has the hallmarks of a rug-pull.
Enjoy the conversation!
Timestamps
00:00 Weathering the Storm: Financial Predictions and Warnings
04:28 The Weaponization of Currency: Trust and Global Economics
13:16 The Dollar’s Decline: A Shift in Global Reserve Dynamics
18:29 Japan’s Economic Turmoil: Signals of a Monetary Crisis
26:11 Global Market Interconnectivity: The Ripple Effect of Financial Events
28:37 Market Correlations and Investor Concerns
36:59 The Great Taking and Asset Protection
57:51 The AI Bubble and Market Dynamics
01:02:22 Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment
01:07:13 The Debasement Trade and Asset Performance
01:12:42 Navigating Market Cycles and Investor Psychology
01:20:31 The Role of Adaptive Strategies in Investing
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I saw that “Tavi Costa” chart on India’s silver imports. Were the “units” on the chart tons, or US dollars?
If they were tons, then that’s a big signal. If they were dollars, then I’m not sure if the signal is as clear given the YUGE recent price move.
If I combine Grok with this news article, India’s silver imports were 5000 tons in 2025.
India imported > 5000 tons in 2015, 2019, and 2024 too. Grok’s claimed source is “Silver Institute” which produces a report every year.
In 2025, India imported more than 5,000 tonnes of silver, a figure that amounts to nearly 20% of global annual mine production.
The next question is how much silver in finished product and refined form left India each year…
The AI answer:
The India silver market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 7,289.30 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach around USD 9,400.20 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% during this period. Additionally, India accounts for about 25% of global silver consumption, importing roughly 6,000 metric tons annually.
One thing that does need to be said for those with silver ETFs. Given the ‘don’t be short’ lesson of recent months, it would be wise to diversify your ETF holdings into 3-4 minimum, (ideally including other stable countries) remembering, the bigger they are, the harder and faster they fall. Currently, it is likely too late to switch some to physical.
7,289 billion? Me thinks there’s a decimal place error here.
Edit: multiple sources are quoting similar numbers… But this AI on India’s GDP is around
$3.9 to $4.2 trillion (nominal) for 2024, making it the world’s fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan, with strong projected growth towards $7 trillion by 2030, driven by domestic demand and robust Q2 FY2025-26 growth of over 8%
This is why I qualified it as ‘the AI answer.’ It was copied verbatim, and truly laughable. You were the first to catch it. It was too good not to use it. People are actually believing AI responses. Change billion to million and its probably correct.
By the way, if the question is rephrased to how much does silver contribute to the Indian economy, you get this answer.
“Silver plays a significant role in the Indian economy, particularly as a major consumer good, with India being the world’s largest importer of refined silver, accounting for about 21.4% of global refined silver trade. In 2025, India’s silver imports were estimated at $9.2 billion.”
Ok i have a question
I have been pre65 silver oriented
Now i read and am told by my enabling supplier that 90% is being bought at 15+ tines back of spot so say $100 x .715 says spot is 71.50 for every $1 of coins. Thus would be bought for 56x or so if you can sell it. He also said many are not even willing to buy it.
I smell a rat… this just seems like BS. I get the narrative refiners like the easier .999 BUT if india and China are running around paying premiums on silver why the 18% discount?
They are not making any more pre65.
I predict ( hope lol) this is just a current money grab and we see pre65 shoot up in value.
I suppose if this thesis is correct i should buy at 56x with both hands.
Have you been waiting for a dip? Back in the olden days (6mos to a year+ ago), it seemed like every time I made a purchase, the price dropped.
Wish I had something profound to say, but the graph for Ag and other metals is just going up and to the right. That 20 year chart for Ag is telling. it’s what everyone has predicted, pontificated about. Well it’s happening. The current fiat situation is toast.
Do you need the cash now? If so, sorry Charlie, agreed, it doesn’t seem like a good time to sell 90% or Canadian 80%. If not, lets just finish our preparations and sit back with front row seats for the train-wreck (but there is always work to be done, check your list twice, thrice).
I’ve been buying little odds and ends while the price has been going asymptotic . Found a handful of Columbian Exposition (1892-1893) half dollars (I never heard of them before). One was quite worn (not worth much) a few between VG → VF and two are certainly XF (under a loupe, the details are quite obvious). Bought these for dollars under spot in Nov. Our family just enjoyed collecting coins. I have no idea, but just guessing 90% values closer-to-spot will return someday? Some (few perhaps) of our 90% half dollars cost…50¢ back in the day from the family collection.
What i forgot to add or ask is around the risk to silver and gold as a store of value different than other assets
If people get disillusioned because their silver coins cannot be sold or the discount is undesirable does or will that taint the store of value argument and the marginal buyers?
Maybe physical silver discount 18% while RE drops 50% so yes PMs are the store of value.
The current discount does seem to reduce downside risk for those still buying.
This will impact later stage buyers more than those who have been stacking for years.
We will see as this this situation unfolds if in fact the discount is legit or a money grab by refiners/wholesalers
LCS are very cash flow oriented.
LCS are seeing demand for silver eagles/maples as they move quickly.
Many LCS want to down load risks of pre 65 USA junk silver, generics, etc to wholesalers / foundry. The problem is, the the foundries are running way behind. The foundries often do not want to hold that inventory risk or more either. A significant drop in value while they hold inventory is a big risk.
So, to buy or sell anything, first you have to cover the normal haircut difference between LCS buy/sell pricing. Then, for the less popular stuff, the LCS has to guess their risk for their cashflow for holding that inventory long enough to sell or melt it. That risk level will vary LCS to LCS depending on their cash flow specifics and even their choice as to whether they are willing to gamble on spot falling over the hold time.
Guessing wrong, just once, can put them out of business.
@truth-seeker i actually realize all the above and appreciate the accurate discription for the likely situation and narrative. However, being too much of a conspiracy person i am trying to look for the other possibility.
After all, if i/we just believed the narrative we would not care about this topic because the president said best economy ever.
Maybe i am a truth seeker LOL just not easily believing the easy answer.
Others mentioned Dollar Cost Averaging. But it’s been moving fast. $50 → $100 in two months? Wild. Yea, hindsight is 20-20, but there were entry points in the high $50s and mid- $70s. This chart doesn’t even have yesterday’s geyser to above $103. Any guesstimates as to the future price or pullbacks, would be just that. The chart still looks healthy though.
, but this one is a high-water mark.
) There’s still an upside.