I see what you did there…haha.
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Of course, the longer the destruction goes on the more opportunities for corporations to make profits on: 1) supplying the needed weapons, and 2) the eventual reconstruction of damaged areas. Also, it buys time and possibly provides leverage for energy and finance contract renegotiations that will better reflect the coming multipolar world.
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I find it’s more useful to do stuff you need anyway.
Also, not needing to cash in my “insurance policy” is a good thing. I bought term life insurance for my wife, not because I want to use it.
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I think you guys have it wrong. The truth is exactly the opposite. They will crash the bond market to keep the stock market alive.
The world has been selling US Treasuries hand over fist. Nothing has been happening as it used to because the FED has been doing all the buying. The USD has been worth nothing since the last 2-percent of the dollar went to zero after the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and Crash in 2010. When bonds become worth nothing (of consequence) then the interest on the national debt will be meaningless. This is why everything has been happening all at once, and all of it bad.
It’s like the SpaceX IPO. Musk is a government man. Everybody overlooks that. Normalcy Bias and all that. SpaceX is a government program. Musk would be worth nothing without all those government contracts. The IPO is the government (a snake oil salesman), selling stakes in 70-year-old technology.
Taken together, what is happening is like watching the death of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The government lies about the COLA, setting the interest rate at 2.5-percent and then raise monthly Medicare premiums almost 10-percent – from $185.00 to $203.00. The government garnishes you Social Security every month. Eventually, you bankrupt people’s ability to pay premiums at the same time you deplete their saving below the threshold of living anywhere but on the street.
Nobody survives long out of doors – either homeless on the street or alive on Mars. Both have no way of getting back indoors, of putting a roof over their heads.
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I just don’t see how allowing the bond market to crash benefits the government? If the stock market crashes it impoverishes individuals and retirement accounts. Keeping the bond market alive keeps the big institutions happy. They will protect the institutions before they protect the little guy, IMO.
That’s the right attitude, I believe. For 19 years in the police department I wore a Kevlar vest every single day no matter how hot or uncomfortable. I am NOT tired, frustrated or demoralized because nobody shot me! I’ve also been carrying a handgun for self defense since 1988, first as a civilian and later as a police officer on duty and off. I’ve only fired it on the street two times, but on those occasions I REALLY, REALLY needed it. I don’t regret all the other days I didn’t need it at all or only needed it to deter an attack that was about to occur.
So, I have NO PROBLEM training and equipping for bad outcomes that might never come. In fact, I’ve built my life on the hope that the bad outcomes never come. It takes balance to be equipped, trained and ready while at the same time living life fully and enjoying it today. The extremes are what ruin people’s lives: totally unprepared versus desperate for the bad outcomes so your life will meaningful.
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This is a complex story. i do my best to give a summary of the information i receive(d).
i receive a few different newsletters coming Paradigm Press, and they start from the point that those who are going to make the biggest amount of money from the IPO already have shares and have been trading them behind closed doors al this time.
The limited % of the float is intentional - to push the price up. Hype SpaceX up and create FOMO to get people to bid each other up and buy in.
Next they made comparison with several mayor IPO’s (e.g. Microsoft and Facebook/ Meta) and most if not all showed an initial run up, followed by a crash in price to a point way below IPO entry point and stayed there for a while before getting to where they are now.
Right now retail is being hyped up to get on board of the SpaceX IPO. They are the ones who will push the price up. Those who are already in will use this run up to cash out - sell during the buying hype, and probably get back in when/ after the price crash. Retail and all these funds will be left holding the bag - suffering the biggest losses.
The fact that the selling from those already in is somewhat restricted by these release windows only avoids an all at once moment. Does not mean that the carnage will be avoided. How exactly it will play out is a bit harder to say.
Their focus and advice is to look for companies that are linked to SpaceX somehow and will benefit indirectly from the IPO, and avoid SpaceX itself, at least for a couple of months.
In the past week or so, i noticed a boost in the stories around the IPO from SpaceX, and that the brokers where i have an account suddenly started opening up access the the IPO features so people (such as myself) who normally would not have access can now get in.
One thing for sure, all this is carefully planned to confuse, entice, and trick. Stay away from the hype and look for an entry point after all the release dates and things have settled a bit.
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Maybe, Maybe not.
Musk is a wild card to say the least. He has many examples wherein he did Not maximize his personal money for what he considers helping others, or in pursuit of the truth.
He does appear to dislike 
's.
I recently saw a video clip of a liberal reporter grilling him over buying X. Reporter said the X advertising would be boycotted if he dared to allow anything other than previously aired liberal propoganda on X.
Musk replied that such a thing would be blackmail.
Musk’s reply to anyone that wanted to blackmail him over the truth on X, was to reply with F*** you, and he said that more than once.
He has apparently shared stock buying opportunities with his employees generously.
I will personally give him the respect I think he deserves.
As to investing, never get advice heard from me.
Just sharing about what may / may not work for my clan.
Personally, we have a bit of savings that is designated for wild swing for the bleachers opportunities that could do very well or be totally lost. We just assign a percent of that towards various possibilities. We change that percentage early and often based upon changes in knowledge, facts, markets, potentials, long term potential, and such. That way we don’t have to be totally correct on go/no go decisions and timing.
We will never be totally right on investments.
We just need to avoid being totally wrong.
Musk is probably thinking strategies that are light years ahead of what has been publicly shared so far.
A mad money share or two of SpcX & TESLA stuffed into an IRS tax gain exempt Roth, might get interesting. 
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Elon Musk is just another cog in the machine playing his part. Just like Trump, he is a loose cannon ball or wild card as you say, unpredictable to say the least.
There is a whole system at work that steers thing in a certain direction regardless of what individual opinions, feelings, sentiment, behavior, intention etc. are. For that reason it is important to regularly zoom in and out, not to be too blindsided in any matter.
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I hear you, but there is a huge difference here.
Trump never was able to teach a Falcon 9 to be a reusable rocket and land on it’s tail. Or a Starship booster to be reusable and hover in mid air and get caught on a huge pair of chopsticks. Elon & his skilled teams have.
Yesterday at lunch in a small family owned sandwich shop, I got into an interesting conversation with a nice lady. We talked about many things including Elon and that she did not like or trust him. I asked what she thought about his rocket ships that can land on their tails or hover and get caught outa mid air.
She was shocked and had no knowledge that such a thing was possible. That is how bad the knowledge base is with some people. I offered to show her video off my phone so she could believe me, but she declined. Classic case of don’t show me any facts and data that conflict with my beliefs.
Someday, it might be useful to have a bullet resistant cyber truck vehicle with starlink coms & with a humanoid robot programed for self defense in the vehicle with you.
If you watched the last TESLA stock owners meeting, then you saw a couple of interesting robots. They were not dancing, serving food, serving drinks, or acting like cute dogs.
They were positioned on each side of the stage ramps.
They were watching.
They were waiting.
They were occasionally moving to remind you,
that they were there & ready.
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I’ve been in that same mindset lately, and what is going on in the oil and financial markets is just making it even more difficult to attempt to wake others up to what is coming. I spoke several times to my neighbors, (I don’t many because we are all on 160 acres) trying to encourage them to stock up on diesel before the price skyrockets. We hit a local high of $5.10 a gallon, I saw it yesterday for $4.35. This makes me look like the fool for claiming we are going to see diesel double in coming weeks, now months.
That doesn’t make me want to stick my neck out again. I have the stores I need, I don’t want to have to turn away neighbors who are begging for me to share my preps some day. Or have to shoot someone maybe when they turn to trying to steal fuel or cattle or even chickens in the middle of the night.
I feel like the biggest cry wolf, my kids think that of me and my wife. Most of our friends do. Its a heavy price to pay, to live an hour outside the cities. I’ve commuted an hour each way for over 14 years now, just to have a feeling of peace and security I get by living rural. In the end, its a small price to pay to have the freedom I do now.
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Same boat for sure. Gas was 3.79 yesterday in Milwaukee, WI. The charade of normalcy has gone on for too long on this particular crisis that I, too, don’t plan on bringing up anything on current events unless an obvious opening. However, this crisis has given good opportunity to declutter and decide what I really want to do for prepping. Minimalist prepping, who knew?
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It is not like Trump had any aspirations to contribute to the space race. That he was not able to achieve what you mention, is simply because it was out of his interest.
Purely financially, it would have been just as easy for Trump as for Elon, to use ‘his’ capital to get the right people together to get things done (and be acclaimed for it).
Whether people would have wanted to collaborate with Trump the way they do with Elon (up to now) to accomplish something similar, had he had this ambition, is another thing.
Trump and Elon are just on different paths, doing their thing. We are the spectators, unless we blindly follow along and get sucked into the drama.
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There are now videos from Crimea as Ukraine has managed to cut supply logistics for most part there… so regular folks steal each others gas and queue it. While this is artificial, practical warzone region, some flavor and degree of this can come to west. It happened practically overnight there, gas stealing from tanks.
What would lead to stealing chickens, that part I dont know where to look. In countryside people have shotguns for a reason, as opportunity can make temptation strong. People have mischief in them(pickpocketing candy from 7-11 corner store also in wealthy neighborhoods is mostly this).
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We haven’t paid the price in commuting time that you have. But I’ve decidedly switched to stealth prepping. Slowly and methodically we add in some type of resilience, in one area or another.
Others are free to do whatever they think is right for them. But a wise friend once put it this way, “do you think things will be better and cheaper now or in 5 years?” If the answer is better and cheaper then do nothing. For example, our electricity bill keeps going up. And the above-ground lines to our neighborhood are old and run through way too many trees. So we lose power during storms on a semi-frequent basis. Well we now have solar with battery backup. No fuss or telling anyone we expect Armageddon. Just the acknowledgment of the facts that most people see for themselves.
Op sec isn’t a thing only because you don’t want anyone to know what you have, although that’s a real concern. It’s also to prevent the kind of sky-is-falling-tomorrow action that takes a toll on mental health and relationships.
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Put your futures into Clive’s gold price predictor and see what happens:
Catastrophe thinking can have negative impact and can cause Isolation. This is why I always focus on preparedness for the things that do or are most apt to happen as a starting point.
The eliminate stress without causing the psychological tolls and isolation.
If you live in an earthquake zone, a hurricane some, somewhere prone to blizzards, prepare for what is most likely.
In most cases these ordinary preps for likely or expected events will also make you more resilient in a catastrophe.
Small preparations can just be common sense and make life easier for day to day, all while making you prepared for crisis.
I keep a stretchy cargo net, ratchet straps and cordage in my truck’s under floor storage bin. Yesterday I stopped at my mother’s on the way to the county dump. She had some things to send also, that net came in handy. If I were out and found that a 911 had taken place, or a shut down was announced, or if we had to evac due to a chemical leak or such, that same net would be employed toward catastrophic prepping.
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I got some kind of helicopter cargo net at a yard sale 20 years ago, but I don’t yet have the helicopter that goes with it.
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Maybe you could get together with Larry and make something happen…
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