Investing When Still Nothing Matters and Anything Goes

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/investing-when-nothing-matters-and-anything-goes-2/

The Iran war, now in its 103^rd day, has reignited with bombs and missiles flying in all directions. Trump is threatening massive retaliation up to and including Iranian power plants and bridges.

Iran has said it will respond in kind to any bombings up to and including striking the remaining functional GCC energy infrastructure targets and the Bab al-Mandab strait (the entrance/exit to the Red Sea).

Wednesday night (6/10/26) saw Iran strike US airbases in several countries, and reports of massive explosions in Iran.

Despite all that, oil fell on the news … again. This morning (6/11) WTI oil in the US had fallen all night long, losing $4/bbl by morning.

Whether this is market complacency or evidence of active market rigging by US authorities, the result will be the same. Eventually, US oil stockpiles will reach some sort of terminal bottom. Then it will be game over.

Oil prices will spike, slamming the US economy into a brick wall with the least amount of time to prepare or adjust.

Believe it or not, the US has experienced 4 out of the 5 largest crude draws in history during a month when oil prices actually retreated significantly. FYI, “BACD” stands for Big A** Crude Draw.

The economic damage that is on the way is incalculable.

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Gold Capitulation?

Equally mysterious would be the price behavior of gold, having steadily fallen ever since the start of the Iran war.

Shouldn’t gold be a crisis hedge? Or at least an inflation hedge (which is currently spiking rapidly)? Yes, but then again, we live in bizzarro world now.

To really put a fine point on it, the gold mining stocks just recorded a “Bullish Percent” reading of…zero:

That means no stocks went up. None. Complete capitulation within the space. Nobody wants these money-printing machines.

Larry Lepard gives us the proper grounding on this historic event:

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Inflation!

Inflation has reared its head, as Paul and I have long been discussing, in the form of higher PPI and CPI readings. The most recent reading for the CCI was 4.2%.

Once again, wages are now trailing inflation – a condition that is certain to worsen over the coming months (and years?).

It’s a global phenomenon with Japan’s PPI reading recently having come in at a scorching 6.3% (yr/yr).

A huge driver of inflation, of course, is government deficit spending, which is also something of a global phenomenon. Currently sovereign bond sales are exceeding even the COVID scramble.

You all know what happened to inflation after that, right?

The AI Super Bubble

Keeping everything afloat in the US, presently, is AI CAPEX spending and circular financing.

When put on an apples-to-apples footing, the current AI CAPEX boom is without equal across every prior bubble since 1850:

Every single prior CAPEX boom was followed by huge losses. This time will not be different.

Given the extreme concentration of equity valuation in just ten major AI-related stocks, the risk to the overall stock market is enormous.

Either this AI play works out or it doesn’t. As of today, the revenues simply aren’t there to support the valuation extremes.

They might show up, but I doubt they will. Tick tock. However, oil continues to fall, as does gold, while US equities mysteriously climb.

It would seem that nothing matters, and anything goes.

Which is always a warning sign and why Paul continues to caution that people should be steering away from passive investing strategies and toward active tactical risk-managed strategies.

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Timestamps

• 00:00 Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impacts
• 04:53 Escalation of Military Actions
• 07:54 Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics
• 11:40 Market Sentiment and Oil Trading
• 16:38 Global Strategic Stock Drawdowns
• 20:41 China’s Role in Global Oil Markets
• 23:58 Investment Strategies in a Volatile Market
• 27:47 Consequences of Monetary Policy and Economic Bubbles
• 33:16 The Consequences of Short-Sighted Leadership
• 34:38 Navigating Market Obsessions and Political Pressures
• 34:38 Capitulation in the Gold Market
• 42:03 Understanding Inflation and Economic Pressures
• 43:22 The Impact of Government Borrowing on Inflation
• 50:37 Adapting Financial Strategies for Retirement
• 55:03 The Importance of Tactical Decision-Making in Investing
• 01:03:05 The AI Super Bubble: Reality Check
• 01:07:38 Market Rebalancing: Signs of a Shift
• 01:11:49 Buffett’s Wisdom: Cash vs. Equities
• 01:18:44 The SpaceX IPO: Implications for the Market
• 01:25:50 Navigating Market Euphoria: Strategies for Investors

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[samui (Odell Rhodes)]

@cmartenson

Whether this is market complacency or evidence of active market rigging by US authorities, the result will be the same. Eventually, US oil stockpiles will reach some sort of terminal bottom. Then it will be game over.

The ineluctable conclusion of “Markets” so grotesquely and pervertedly Rigged is that the entire Financial System is Illegitimate and Oppressive, particularly for Gen Z?

Maybe, bring the chemistry professor, Dave Collum, and retired U.S. Special Forces officer, Michael Yon and his wife Musako on the show? Michael Yon has probably taught Musako how to make “Shaped Charges”?

[dreinmund]

Sigh. All I can say is that I’m exhausted AF.
Nothing makes sense. This is the ultimate demoralization of people that believe in principles, honesty and truth. Total post-modern clusterf$&#.

Can’t wait for this to end.

[pb-round]

Dunno, I’m beginning to entertain the thought that, given all the data available to all the world’s market players in all the world’s markets, vs. the social media punditry and assorted clickbaiters in the inter-tube sphere, I’m tending to lean towards the “market” oriented approach to the “what is” of the moment.

Granted, though, what with bombs and bullshit being thrown around every which way, I reserve the right to adjust my thinking going forward.

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

@dreinmund

All I can say is that I’m exhausted AF.
Nothing makes sense. This is the ultimate demoralization of people that believe in principles, honesty and truth. Total post-modern clusterf$&#.

I am right there with you. It’s exhausting. But that’s the point, and I am a stubborn guy. So I carry on, out of the principle of opposition.

[samui (Odell Rhodes)]

@cmartenson

Whether this is market complacency or evidence of active market rigging by US authorities, the result will be the same. Eventually, US oil stockpiles will reach some sort of terminal bottom. Then it will be game over.

Maybe change the Marketing Slogan from “Go Where You’re Treated Best” to?: “Go Where You Can Escape Justice”

[flyingdoc]

@samui

Maybe change the Marketing Slogan from “Go Where You’re Treated Best” to?: “Go Where You Can Escape Justice”

I would settle for ‘go where you are left alone…’

# “The most terrifying force of death, comes from the hands of men who wanted to be left alone. They try, so very hard, to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know, that the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over.

The moment the men who wanted to be left alone are forced to fight back, it is a form of suicide. They are literally killing off who they used to be. Which is why, when forced to take up violence, these men who wanted to be left alone, fight with unholy vengeance against those who murdered their former lives. They fight with raw hate, and a drive that cannot be fathomed by those who are merely play-acting at politics and terror. TRUE TERROR will arrive at these people’s door, and they will cry, scream and beg for mercy… but it will fall upon the deaf ears of the men who just wanted to be left alone.”

― Alexandr Solzhenitsyn

[samui (Odell Rhodes)]

Now that I think about it…I may be Wrong? Women may actually make Men Stronger?

All that we have to do is to get Dave Collum and Michael Yon and Musako teach the Women how to make “Shaped Charges”?

[doubletap]

@cmartenson

I am right there with you. It’s exhausting.

I think its getting to all of us in some way.

Is it just me or are others here picking up on the vibe that people are growing so weary of prepping for things that never seem to come? I’ve seen more and more comments on that lately.

I understand the fatigue and none of us know when anything is coming exactly but doing nothing, giving up or sleeping thru the next several years seems like a really bad idea.

On the other hand focusing so intently on this one thing can get out of hand and burn you up. Im still going to take time out, travel and enjoy the people and activities that are meaningful. While I can.

[samui (Odell Rhodes)]

@flyingdoc

I would settle for ‘go where you are left alone…’

The great Michael Yon says that War is Eternal and Perpetual. He says that War “is about Routes, Resources, and Ideology.” (Ideology is basically Human Resources.)”

Since we are part of Human Resources then “They” are not going to leave us alone. As Michael Yon recently quipped: “You are on the Menu.”

We should not be too obtuse about this…. Famine is coming….

[preppy]

I am preparing for a different life. I want a life less impacted by those who lie to me and gaslight me. This is true whether a big collapse happens or not because TPTB are lying and marching forward with agendas I don’t want to be a part of.

[dreinmund]

@doubletap

Is it just me or are others here picking up on the vibe that people are growing so weary of prepping for things that never seem to come? I’ve seen more and more comments on that lately.

Can you imagine how Noah must have felt ? The ridicule ? The laughs ?

Hang in there, the flood is coming.

[resiliencerob]

What about survivorship bias?

Over the years, there will have been thousands of Noahs and, for them, the ridicule was never retracted - because no flood came. Instead, they burned all their time, money and respect on a thing and probably died as broken men surrounded by rotting wood.

Will we end up being the 1 Noah? Or the broken men surrounded by stale flour, mouse eaten lentils and leaking cans of engine oil?

[flyingdoc]

@resiliencerob

Will we end up being the 1 Noah? Or the broken men surrounded by stale flour, mouse eaten lentils and leaking cans of engine oil?

and solar ‘farms’ and wind turbines~

[preppy]

It’s no longer “if” for me.

The world has changed and is continuing to change in ways I don’t want to be a part of. More change is on the way.

“Prepping” is not for what might come it’s for minimizing the effects of what has and is happening.

I used to prep, I now consider it reacting.

[resiliencerob]

Re SpaceEx flotation.

In the podcast, it was said that the float is only about 3% of the shares in issue (if I heard that right).

If a small number of shares are in the market (low supply) but there is a lot of demand (retail and forced index buyers) then price goes up? So index buyers have to weight it as a bigger % of their portfolio? So it goes up some more? …

Will gradual releases of shares by the current holders help with this? Though with a lag perhaps, so the spiralling price push higher described above still happens and they all get to cash out bit by bit over the next X months?

What are people’s thoughts? Have I got this wrong? Probably!

[dreinmund]

@resiliencerob

Over the years, there will have been thousands of Noahs and, for them, the ridicule was never retracted - because no flood came. Instead, they burned all their time, money and respect on a thing and probably died as broken men surrounded by rotting wood.

I’d look at it as a variant of Pascal’s Wager.

[preppy]

You don’t have to be so Blaise about it all.

[permiegirl]

I’m with you and @preppy on this one. We’re shifting our thinking from prepping to living in a way that’s resilient. Energy is getting more problematic, so find ways to live well but less dependent on the systems. Food, same. So even if we’re wrong and God doesn’t exist, we’re still living better.

[preppy]

@doubletap

prepping for things that never seem to come?

I don’t see them as things that never come. I view them as things that are being made worse and more encompassing in the wait.