Originally published at: Iran Announces Bab el-Mandeb Blockade, Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports, Ebola & Lyme Vaccines Advance – Peak Prosperity
Geopolitics
Iran has announced it will impose a full blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to Tasnim. The decision follows an earlier Iranian statement that it would coordinate with Yemen’s Houthis to block the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump reportedly stated that he could not care less about the developments. That being said, no blockade of the Strait has yet been attempted.
However, in a phone call reported by Axios, President Trump criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s operations in Lebanon. Trump stated that Netanyahu would be in prison without U.S. support and objected to high civilian casualties and the destruction of buildings to target individual Hezbollah commanders. Israel subsequently suspended planned strikes on Beirut, and Hezbollah accepted a U.S. ceasefire proposal. Israeli sources have disputed some details of the reported call.
Meanwhile, fighting has continued in southern Lebanon, and Iran launched missiles toward a U.S. base in Kuwait, which were intercepted by CENTCOM. Trump told CNBC that negotiations with Iran were not a priority and predicted oil prices would decline.
In other news, the Trump administration has threatened sanctions against Oman after an intelligence assessment indicated that Oman planned to assist Iran in collecting tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman has denied the allegation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Oman’s ambassador had provided assurances against such cooperation. Oman has declined to join statements condemning Iran and was the only Gulf state to congratulate Mojtaba Khamenei on becoming Iran’s supreme leader. Omani officials have described neutrality as essential for regional stability and mediation.
Energy
Russia has banned jet fuel exports through November 30, 2026, with exemptions for intergovernmental contracts. The measure follows Ukrainian drone strikes that reduced Russia’s crude-processing rate to its lowest level in more than 16 years. Russia accounted for less than 2% of global jet fuel exports last year. Ukraine has struck the Yaroslavl refinery multiple times. Some commentators say the ban is expected to have minimal impact on international markets.
Economy
Goldman Sachs analysts reported that several major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, Costco, and Best Buy, have absorbed higher fuel and freight costs without significant profit impact so far. The analysts noted that sustained high fuel prices could limit retailers’ ability to offset costs through vendor negotiations.
Meanwhile, Thai white rice prices rose 20% in May, the largest monthly increase since at least 2008, while Chicago rice futures increased 15%. The gains coincided with higher energy costs and anticipated effects from El Niño. Fertilizer prices in Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines have risen approximately 50% since late February. The Philippines has estimated that El Niño could reduce its rice output by up to 700,000 tons. The Philippine government has set early palay buying prices to shield farmers from rising costs.
Health
Moderna has received up to $60 million from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to develop a modified mRNA vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola. The funding includes $50 million for preclinical work and Phase 1 trials, with clinical testing possibly starting within months. The support comes amid an outbreak in the eastern DRC that has recorded 282 confirmed cases and 42 deaths, along with roughly 1,100 suspected cases and nine confirmed cases in Uganda. Some observers have questioned the need for rapid development, citing the strain’s lower case-fatality rate compared with the Zaire strain and local resistance to certain health measures.
Additionally, Pfizer plans to submit a four-dose Lyme disease vaccine to the FDA. In the pivotal trial, the vaccine showed 73% efficacy, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 15.8% to a higher value. However, the lower bound fell below the 20% threshold the company had set for statistical success. Some critics have stated that the results do not demonstrate efficacy. Pfizer has indicated it will proceed with regulatory submission regardless.
US Politics
California’s Assembly has advanced AB 2624, which critics have dubbed the “Stop Nick Shirley Act,” raising concerns about the encroachment on journalistic scrutiny of publicly funded organizations. The bill’s stated purpose is to expand confidentiality protections for immigration service providers against harassment and threats, but Shirley has argued that it would effectively shield taxpayer-funded nonprofits and NGOs from public oversight. “These are organizations and groups that receive our tax dollars, yet they want to make it so we can’t find out what they’re doing with our tax dollars,” Shirley said. The legislation has drawn broader attention to the tension between protecting advocacy organizations and preserving the ability of independent journalists to investigate the use of public funds.
Artificial Intelligence
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier has filed an 83-page lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company released an unsafe product. The complaint claims ChatGPT assisted in planning mass shootings, encouraged suicides, reduced critical thinking, and created addiction in minors. It seeks to hold Altman personally liable and follows an earlier criminal investigation into ChatGPT’s role in a mass shooting at Florida State University.
In other news, Microsoft is ending most direct employee access to Claude Code, six months after directing staff to the tool, and is instead directing engineers to GitHub Copilot CLI. The company’s broader agreement with Anthropic remains in place. The move is raising wider questions about whether AI tooling at scale is actually cost-effective — a concern reinforced by Uber’s CTO stating that the company exhausted its entire 2026 AI coding budget within four months. If the computing costs of running AI tools at scale exceed the payroll savings they generate, the core economic argument for replacing workers with AI becomes harder to sustain. Some analysts suggest that rather than abandoning AI outright, companies may respond by imposing usage caps and narrower rollouts focused on tasks where efficiency gains are demonstrable.
Sources
Pfizer Lyme Vaccine Trial Fails Primary Endpoint Yet Seeks Approval
The trial failed its primary endpoint. They claim 73% efficacy but the 95% confidence interval crashes down to 15.8%.
California’s “Stop Nick Shirley Act” Targets Exposé of Hospice and Daycare Fraud
They’re criminalizing exposing fraud.
Source | Submitted by PhilH
Microsoft’s AI Pullback: When Tools Cost More Than Labor
What if using artificial intelligence at scale ends up costing more than the labor it’s supposed to streamline?
Source | Submitted by Redneck Engineer
Iran to Fully Blockade Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Sending Oil Surging 8%
Iran says it has now decided to execute the full blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as the next operational step following the announcement of ending all negotiations and communication with the US, per Tasnim.
Source | Submitted by Chris Martenson
Rice Prices Surge Most Since 2008 on Energy Shock, El Niño Risks
Asian rice prices logged their biggest monthly gain in nearly two decades in May, as a Gulf energy shock collides with an expected El Niño event later this year.
Florida First to Sue OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety Failures
“This litany of harms is driven by Defendants’ insatiable quest to win the AI arms race and amass large fortunes, despite knowing the danger of ChatGPT,” the suit said.
U.S. Retailers Absorb Fuel Shock—for Now
Early read-throughs from Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane indicate that management teams at major retailers are absorbing higher logistics costs today, but the real risk is that a sustained fuel price shock in the back half of the year could begin to deteriorate margins.
Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports as Ukrainian Strikes Cripple Refineries
Russia is banning exports of jet fuel through November 30, 2026, as it seeks to ensure domestic supply amid intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian refining infrastructure.
Trump Rips Netanyahu in Leaked Call: ‘You’re F**king Crazy, I’m Saving Your Ass’
You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass.
Moderna Taps CEPI Funds to Fast-Track mRNA Ebola Bundibugyo Vaccine
I smell a repeat performance involving pandemonium.
U.S. Turns on Neutral Oman, Threatening Strikes Over Iran Ties
Washington increasingly interprets Oman’s approach toward Tehran as hostile to America and, according to U.S. and Arab officials, has pressed Oman to pick a side and cut diplomatic ties with Iran.
Source (Paywalled)
Trump Fumes at Netanyahu: “You’re Fucking Crazy” Over Lebanon Escalation
You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass.
Source (Paywalled)
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Nic Hulscher, Peters J Vecrumba, Grok, MaxSchoon, CruxBriefHQ, Amit Segal, Osint613, MediaBytesPH, RepublikaNewsPH, First Squawk, and Rory Johnston.
/ @leadersonthefrontier 
/ leadersonthefrontier 
/ frontiercentre 