Far too many indicators are screaming recession at the moment. But the “”markets”” remain bulletproof.
What’s the story there?
In this podcast, Paul Kiker and I discuss these indicators and range widely as we puzzle through how to position oneself given these crosscurrents.
One of the most profound indicators is a collection of indicators called the “Leading Economic Indicators” or the LEI. Since 1960 this indicator has reliably been associated with 100% of all called recessions when it is -5% or below.
Today it is well below that level. But the wall – nay, the flood – of liquidity that the central banks have been pouring on the “”markets”” has managed to keep a recession from being officially called.
But the mass layoffs and a declining social mood as middle class and lower economic rungs struggle with high inflation and a migrant invasion are more consistent with a recession. Tune in to hear more.
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Businesses tend to operate in steps rather than on a curve. I see a lot of businesses in the news making those step shaped decisions recently to reflect a slower economy. (Layoffs, smaller orders, waiting to order) I see the same in the real world that I operate in. I had a conversation with a guy a few weeks ago at a local RV dealership. He was explaining to me that new campers are being priced much lower now and production has possibly stopped on many models. The lot inventory is full and the customers have slowed. Of course, some of the slowing is seasonal. What surprised me most was the prices on the new units being cut to that of used campers. I think this could be showing up in other industries soon too. I have always used boats, airplanes, and RVs as my indicator of recession. They are usually the first to take a hit on the consumer side.
Hey, thanks for changing the date format you give to the filenames on the downloads - I had been renaming the DDMMYY to YYMMDD when I re-encoded downloads to store on my NAS (the correct format for sorting) but now you are doing it that way from the start!
Hey, if it ‘Flies, Floats or F…s, it’s cheaper to rent than buy’ and all that …
Things like boats, planes and RVs (maybe not as much as the other two) are very much high value luxury (ie discretionary) purchases. They would definitely be the first things to be hit by a bad economy.
I download pretty much all the pay material so I can watch on my TV easily. I re-encode to a lower bitrate and resolution (the videos USED to be stupidly large due to poor original encoding setting but they are better these days) and store them on my NAS for reference if I want to go back to something that was discussed.
Have the filenames start with YYMMDD helps enormously when trying to locate something you remember watching.
I tried my new TV’s browser to watch the videos, following a tip given in another thread, and it actually works pretty well too. But I still prefer to download then watch via a video player.
Stop analyzing it as or even calling it a market. At this point the stock fraud is only an inflation laundering mechanism to make sure the freshly stolen wealth goes to the 0.1%. Any independent measure of annual cost of living increase is 5-9% so actual currency inflation even higher and most of it will enter the system through stocks. Stocks are often bought leveraged and priced on the margin. Buying stocks with newly keyboarded currency regardless of price is not a market. As you have pointed out numerous times the only thing stock prices correlate with is fed printing and expectations of fed printing.
I have been watching the used RV market in my area for a couple years. In the past couple of months I am seeing a huge downward pressure on used rv prices. Both driven and towed models. What you would pay for a 20 year old model months ago you can now get a 10 to 12 year old model.
Another thing I watch are small Japa ese Kie trucks and vans. They are also dropping in price as more are up for sale.
Yes. I agree. The sales guy I was talking to was saying that Covid increased the demand and prices on the 20-22 models and now those owners are stuck. Let’s say they paid 50k for a 21 model. A new 24 model is 20-30 percent cheaper than the price was for that same model in 21. Boats are in the same predicament. Part of this is to blame on the dealerships jacking up the prices in Covid.
Similar thing happened with car and truck prices a couple years later with dealers pruce gouging vehicle prices. I think we will see a crash in new and used auto prices.
I had a 2019 vw GLI with a 6 speed manual ( great car for driving enthusiasts on a budget) that was no longer a match for our family. Dealers had been offering more than I paid for it 3.5 years earlier. So I traded it in on a Ford Ranger. My tall eldery husband could easily get in and out of it, the 2.3 litre turbo moved it necely enough and aomewhat fuel efficiently, it seemed practical and the dealer gave me 2k over what I paid for the vw.
A drunk driver totalled the Ranger and by that time they were few and far between. Dealers were selling them for even 10k or more above MSRP. My insurance company got me 9k more than I paid for my ranger as that was the average at the time. I then bought a Santa Cruz trucklette, because I missed AWD, and its advantages over the Rangers RWD/4x4 combo, for my purposes. I had also in those few months realized climbing on a bar to get in and out of the truck was killing my already wonky knee. I So, in exchange for a forever tweaked back, I made 9k and got a knee sparing do over. I also got my sporty car back with the 2.5 litre turbo, dual clutch trans, and lots of torque.
One problem is that 401Ks do not have investments that allow for good hedging. Sometimes you get 8-12 choices, most of which are correlated to the long side. No international funds, no inverse ETF, and certainly no metals choices. Its the company match that is the draw here, but might not matter when its all underwater in a bear or crash. Speaking to HR to get the custodian to change the offerings is fruitless. Anyone have ideas besides quitting and doing a rollover? Do others just opt out and retain control in self directed IRAs.
The question made me think about it? Is this another example of “Lawfare - Lawfare is the use of legal systems and institutions to damage or delegitimize an opponent, or to deter an individual’s usage of their legal rights”, does it come down to fearing fair competition and quashing it should any competition become a threat? All of the U.S actors are the ones that, after the last 4 years in particular, we now mostly associate with “Nefarious”
While trying to search for a real analysis I couldn’t find any - all, or nearly all of the articles are U.S DOJ/Western biased - hints & allegations. Makes me think it is just more lawfare and another false narrative - “Trade Wars” aka “Sanctions”!! a component of WW3 that we’ve been for a decade or better now. United States unseals charges against Huawei and its CFO | ZDNET