Is Covid Coming For Your Job?

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How safe is your job?

Because despite the “Everything is Awesome!” mirage the financial markets are desperate to project, the real economy – you know, where people actually live their lives – is telling us a far darker story.

Tens of millions of US workers have lost their jobs since covid-19 arrived on America’s shores. Over 28 million people right now are currently filing to receive state & federal unemployment benefits:

<img class=“aligncenter size-medium” src=“https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/US-unemployment-claims-2020-08-13-continued-state-federal-NSA-stacked-2.png” alt="“Continued Claims chart” width=“500” height=“462” />

And despite extraordinary measures to aid these impacted households, many are slipping into hardship as the prospects only grow dimmer.

The $2.2 trillion CARES Act created the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program which added an additional $600 per week to those receiving unemployment benefits. It also sent a tax credit check of up to $1,200 ($2,400 for joint filers) to households making under a certain income threshold.

But the extra $600 payments have now expired, and Congress is deadlocked on what will follow. The current proposal is to re-start the extra benefit payment at the reduced sum of $400/week, with $300 paid out of the federal government’s Disaster Relief Fund and the rest funded by the individual states. Another $1,200 payment seems likely, as well.

This plan has it challenges, though. At $300/week, the Disaster Relief Fund will be drained after 5 weeks. And many states are claiming they can’t afford to foot the $100/week bill they’re being asked to.

So it’s little wonder, with tens of millions of jobs lost and over 3,500 businesses declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy so far this year, Americans are increasingly worried for the future:

POLL-Three of ten Americans laid off in coronavirus crisis worried about food, shelter (Reuters)

Three of 10 Americans who lost work during the coronavirus pandemic said they may have trouble paying for food or housing after a $600-per-week enhanced unemployment payment expired last month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday(…)

(…) Three out of 10 people surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos reported that they will have “a very difficult time meeting basic needs,” which includes paying for rent or buying groceries. Half said they are under some stress “but we will be able to meet our basic needs.”


And it’s only going to get harder for these folks from here.

The unemployment rate is currently reported at 10.2%, which is high – but still under-emphasizes the reality of today’s job seeker.

Applying for a job in the post-covid world is a real challenge. Companies are busy trying to figure out how to manage the staff they have as they adapt to a remote workforce. And many are downsizing or closing shop completely.

Simply put: there are many less jobs. And a LOT more people competing for them now.

This imbalance will worsen as the extraordinary government benefits dry up, as they are highly likely to do after the November presidential election. Sure, politicians will try to curry votes by being as generous as they can leading up to it. But everyone knows there’s no way the country can sustain what it’s spending now, so expect the pursestrings to snap shut once the results are in.

And, if the markets should experience another major correction, as they are definitely due for – then Katie, bar the-door. If the flotilla of zombie US companies currently kept afloat by Federal Reserve stimulus are allowed to sink, then the unemployment rate will go bonkers as tens of millions more workers lose their jobs.

In Servitude To The Top 1%

Speaking of the markets, for years we've been loudly warning that the price bubble in financial assets blown by the Federal Reserve has resulted in tremendously unfair wealth disparity between the already-rich and everyone else:

<img class=“size-medium aligncenter” src=“https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/w96nEs4vgvvX9xO_bmMEp3DLmfJ5Pmx_ZQKY0WTf9So-2.png” alt="“US wealth distribution” width=“500” height=“442” />

This is resulting in a neo-feudal economy, where increasingly companies target and tailor their services to the elites who have all of the money. The rest of us are increasingly becoming cogs in that machine, worker drones toiling away to keep a few queen bees fat and happy.

Here’s a perfect example. This is an actual current job listing on CareerBuilder.com offering a staggering salary and benefits to serve as a ‘life coach’ to this Apen couple’s three children, who are all under the age of six:

<img class=“aligncenter wp-image-578120 size-large” src=“https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Screen-Shot-2020-08-13-at-9.34.46-AM-885x1024-3.png” alt="“Family Life Coach job posting” width=“885” height=“1024” />So, this is basically a gussied-up nanny job for an insanely ambitious power couple with money to burn.

Given the precarious state of millions of US households right now, I expect thousands will apply for this single position. The compensation package is just too sweet, and there are just too many laid off workers in need.

And so we should expect to see much more of the economy head in this sad direction; more and more of the masses competing for the chance to be a servant to America’s aristocracy.

But hopefully, that doesn’t have to be you.

What To Do If Covid Threatens Your Job

If you've already been laid off due to the pandemic, or fear that you could be, are there important steps you should be taking now?

Absolutely.

We published The Layoff Survival Handbook not long before the coronavirus hit, and it is absolutely more relevant than ever in today’s environment.

The bankruptcy wave has just started. And if the stock market bubble pops, as history tells us is inevitable? Both promise more layoffs AND fewer jobs in the foreseeable future.

So take smart action now to increase your odds of maintaining an income.

In Part 2: The Layoff Survival Handbook, we detail out the steps to take now to reduce your vulnerability to a layoff, and the critical steps to take should you become laid off.

Many of these will enhance your career trajectory and satisfaction even if a pink slip never arrives. But should one do, you’ll be far better off for having taken them.

The stakes are simply too high now to leave your future to chance.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/is-covid-coming-for-your-job/

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So what you are saying, is - I own a grain of sand in San Antonio. Can I get a deed for that? Oh wait, that is if we assumed all wealth was real property, which it isn’t. Oh well. I don’t even own that.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuO4xN4WlXs
One of my all time favorite movies. Putney Swope by Robert Downey Sr.

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I posted this earlier today on a thread from Tuesday. I’m reposting here because I think preparing for civil unrest is right up there for the things that one needs to prepare for.
Mike Glover is one of the most experienced ex-military operators, and an American patriot of American patriots. I’ve followed him for a long time trying to learn as much as I can about firearms. However, when the riots started he help start American Contingency. It’s mission is to create a communication network to help combat anarchists and help law-abiding citizens come together to protect each other. Individuals can report situations, and can subsequently receive reports. I see him as the Chris Martenson of a civil unrest point of view. I highly recommend signing up at his website. You will get real time alerts for unrest activities across the country. If the internet goes down, you’ll get text messages. There are contingencies for contingencies. There is no costs. They do accept donations.
https://youtu.be/-NP4jG1_Xno
 

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  • Ok to be in the 9% below that 1% you don’t have to be a CEO or anything like that. Many successful small business owners, doctors, lawyers, engineers and other professional people are in that bracket. Don’t insult the “next 9%”. If you are an upper middle class professional you are likely there or close to it. Those of us that have gotten there in life bust our behinds in school, college, work etc. we work 60+ hours a week to get what we have. Many of us came from lower middle class or working class roots. Some even came from the lower class and worked very hard for everything they have. So don’t be mad at us. You want to get into our upper middle class “club”. Go to school and get a useful in demand degree or start and run a successful small business. We will welcome you!
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I suggest reading Andrew Yang’s book, “The War on Normal People.” To me, the problems mentioned in this article cannot be handled except by a Federally funded Universal Basic Income. The elites you mention are just too smart and they own everything already. So, IMO, Without a UBI, this is all just talk. Perhaps, even with it!

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Sorry Mystery, “Many of us came from lower middle class or working class roots.”
Change many to “a few.” Economic mobility in USA is lower than many other advanced countries, and declining. Many articles out there on this.
And what’s wrong with being CEO? They have also worked hard and have advanced degrees. They’re just getting paid too much for the job.

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To play contrarian, I would recommend the book “The Nordic Theory of Everything” difficult reading if you don’t like the message, but it has insights as to societal ownership, security and independence, not all applicable but some are.

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https://www.inc.com/business-insider/why-iq-big-factor-future-success-job-performance-according-science-research.html
unfortunately lower IQ individuals will have much fewer opportunities as the rush to automate continues. Today’s society is completely unforgiving for people who do not have the intellectual capacity to compete in it. I am not sure how we fix this. Not everyone can be a doctor or engineer. Maybe an increase in trade schools will help but as I have noticed in my career even the skilled trades are needing higher and higher levels of intelligence and training to work on the automated systems. What do you do with someone with an IQ below 85? They cannot pass the ASVAB. They cannot pass most basic reading and math skills give for well paying factory work either. UBI won’t solve this because the money has to come from somewhere. Printing money is what got us into this mess. How do we employ people who are essentially unemployable? Also we could get in to people lacking high school educations, drug problems, serious criminal records, etc.

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I see you’re new. I would suggest that anyone claiming to have a high IQ thinks carefully before smugly claiming that the supposedly low IQ populace has no future. Indeed, as I’ve said here in a different context, it is highly likely that if the predictions of our gracious hosts resemble the future even moderately, it’s quite likely that some low IQ brute will be beating you to death with your own smug stick, Just sayin.... Either that, or will have the physical capacity that the intellectual class doesn’t, to create wealth in the absence of cheap fossil fuel energy with the use of his muscles. Yes I said HIS.... If you’re offended by the word “his” I would suggest you’re first in line for the aforementioned smug stick ?
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I might be new here but have been prepping for years. Don’t assume anything. I only started reading this site because of the corona virus and decided to pay for a membership because I appreciated the work Chris put into his videos. I only agree with maybe half of what is said but enjoy reading different takes on things. We got into prepping during the whole y2k thing. I am not here to learn how. My comment on low IQ people had nothing to do with the potential crash of society. I think the pace of modern society compared with actual human biology and behavior patterns is getting us into deep crap. We are what we are as a species and like it or not certain people are better prepared to handle certain things. I have 2 adopted children that will probably not be able to achieve what my husband and I have. I worry about them because they both struggle academically. We have gotten them tutors and additional help as well as working with them ourselves. Learning a trade would be the best case outcome for both of them. It will allow them a decent chance at a life where they will become productive members of society. I am 100% for trades. I am also 100% for military service because it is what both my husband and I used to get money for education to make it into the upper middle class. There are people in society that are not capable of Productive employment. It is sad but true. My younger sister’s daughter is one such kid. She is 18 and unfortunately will never be able to live a fully independent life. She is a sweet kid but even a fast food job is beyond her capabilities. As society advances there will be more and more people displaced from the labor force because the mental demands of the job will be too great. There is nothing smug about saying this. I never brought myself into this or claimed to be smarter than anyone else. It is something we need to learn to deal with as a society. Calling me smug for pointing it out won’t change that.
You want to use the word “his” knock yourself out. Before a large low IQ man has his way with me he will be prying my rifle or hand gun from my cold dead hands. I carry all the places where I am legally allowed. You have no idea about my level of preparedness, firearms training, MAG and other defensive strategies that will be put in place here if SHTF. I have physically fought for my life on deployment and won against a larger opponent. I can tell you that the pure rage that came over me at the time was overwhelming. I can tell you that it bothered me for years after. Certain smells or sounds would bring it all rushing back. I cannot explain to you the rage that I felt. If you have ever been in that type of situation you will know. However, to save myself, my family or, friends I am willing to feel that rage again. Also, I would never consider military people to be low IQ people. They are my brothers and sisters in arms and anyone who thinks that they not intelligent are fools.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/after-service/201801/are-military-members-the-lowest-our-low

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Your personal ability and preparedness is a total unknown to me, and I wasn’t making a personal attack. My point was that the belief that high IQ will be adaptive in the future is just that; a belief. In the past there were a limited number of roles for high IQ people; and they were likely those of very high IQ. I watch my neighbours physical ability to lift concrete all day long at ten years my senior, and my fancy education and higher income doesn’t give me much comfort. That was my point…

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I want to take a moment to wish everyone in the PP family the best. I sincerely hope that none of you experiences a layoff/firing in this economic mess. Heaven knows we as a group have seen it coming. Heaven also knows that each of these successive crises have become harder and harder to get out of the way of.
A true account of the last 10 years of my career:
10 years ago I was just starting a new job after a very painful layoff from a very prestigious job in a very prestigious outfit. I was out of work for 8 months although I knew I had a job in the bag after only 3 of them. It still shook me. Took a lot of my pride. After 4 years my project in the new job was surprisingly defunded and I had to hunt a job again, but had a bit of time to get squared away. I had a choice after that and turned down the job of a lifetime (being one of a handful of the research team that directed the design and development of a large, very prestigious motorcycle company) to take a supposedly much safer job.
Yep, you guessed it. That job lasted only 1 1/2 years. The company decided to take out all of the high level R&D when their stock price dipped in 2016. They laid off some of their very best engineers. The next job was as a senior director and research engineer at yet another name brand vehicle manufacturer. I quit that job after a bit over a year to take my present job. This is a job I had dreamed of for my entire career with more security and meaning than anything I had after college. I love it…
The gist: Each and every one of those jobs was with an outfit you would recognize. I was universally loved and respected for my work at each one and was let go by upper management in a cost cutting move. My job was never considered anything less than vital right up to the moment I was cast aside. In each case my old engineering management made calls and gave glowing endorsements to help me land a new job.
If you think for one moment that a high IQ and a high prestige diploma will protect you, think again. I have a PhD from one of the best public universities in the nation. In one of the more difficult and prestigious majors you could imagine. Hell, in my specialty my grad school is considered the best in the nation and one of the best handful in the world.
The only real security in this day and age is had by attaching yourself to a high level government position or highly politically connected monopoly like healthcare. Everyone else is gone the moment it is considered convenient and you expendable. My god, what do you think the war over H1-B visas is about? It is about taking difficult and high paying jobs and creating so much excess labor that you can drive down wages and eliminate job security. Do you really think we have any kind of labor shortage in STEM fields or that citizens of this country aren’t capable of doing this work?
Wake up and quit quoting 80s libertarian talking points. That’s not how the world works. The same people giving you those talking points have made sure that they don’t reflect reality. Sorry for the long screed but I thought that these thoughts needed to be stated out loud.
Will

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It seems to me that in the good old days this job description would have been called ‘a parent’, and more than likely ‘a mother’. But between setting goals and strategies for toddlers and creating all their experiences for them, as well as doing the housework and managing the household, it would be surprising if the Coach will have a lot of time or energy left over to go skiing! Sounds like the job from hell - no wonder they have to offer so much money.
And whatever happened to kids going to call on their friends to run around and play Hide & Seek or road hockey? Somehow I doubt the kids in a Performance Family will ever come home from a soccer game and find that Mom has a home-made apple pie baking in the oven…

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Sounds good on paper but it’s been tried in various areas. Rather than provide a base, on which a person or family could build upon or add to, by means of their labor, it resulted in a disinclination to make the effort to work for a more prosperous future. But the main problem that I see is that it contradicts human nature. People are never content with what is simply given to them. They invariably end up feeling that they are entitled to more. Despite what Marx preached we are not communists by nature. Better to strengthen the family, and small interconnected communities that, despite problems inherent in all human institutions, did serve us well. Dare I add that we must return to God our Creator?

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I have seen too many citizens get displaced by cheaper less qualified H1B holders. I thought R&D was my dream job with the company I have been with for 19 years. After workin in plants for some time I went to work at our R&D facility. After 5 years I went back to plants and have stayed there ever since. Much more stability in a plant environment and I can still do some R&D type project with a real world feel and not have to write a paper about it :-). I am not saying intelligence makes one immune to layoffs. We laid off engineers as well as hourly but the rate of the layoffs was 5 to 1 hourly to salaried. Only a few engineers were laid off total from the salaried group and they were the known poor performers. (Proportionally less than any other group) My whole point was what are we going to do with the people in our society that are not capable of adapting to a high tech high demand society? They cannot become farmers. The farms around here use technology to stay competitive. This is something we have to address as a society. You were able to find another job. You have skills that make you valuable. I feel worse for the hourly guys at my plant that were laid off from their $25/hr production jobs that have no other marketable skills. They are taking work for $15/hr because they need to feed their families and pay the bills. The funny thing is we are still recruiting electricians. I recommend kids that don’t want to attend college attend trade schools. You will never appreciate a tradesman more than when your plumbing goes out on a weekend or your AC goes out on a hot summer day. I have nothing but respect for skilled trades and would be perfectly fine if my kids went into trades. However, if my kids went into trades they might not ever achieve the economic success of my husband and I. This doesn’t make their lives bad. This doesn’t make them failures. According to some people online their lives would be evidence of the failure of american society if they are a lower socioeconomic status than their parents. To me that is wrong. If they are doing a job they enjoy, are happy and, can support themselves, they are successful in my eyes.
Now back to my original issue that no one seems to be able to answer without calling for socialism…What is the answer to unemployable people? We cannot support the runaway debt that all these extra social programs will bring. How do we solve this issue without driving towards the coming financial train wreck at 80mph rather than 50mph?

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You’re assuming the future is high tech. “Progress” for ever and ever amen. If the Peak Prosperity lens turns out to be correct, we ain’t getting that!

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Mysterymet: I appreciate your response… it was a bit more ~ahem~ measured than mine. :slight_smile:
You pose very difficult questions. I am not sure I have the answers to any of them. But I would make the proposition that history has shown that for these types of questions we already know some things that work and we have hints for some of the others. And if we have learned anything from the last few decades it is that Maggie Thatcher was completely wrong about TINA. There was an alternative and it was probably a much better one than we chose.
IMvHO economics is a joke science and a lot of those who practice it are joke scientists. There is almost no way to separate economics from political science. I think the good economists realize this and take into account the realities of how humans react to conditions… especially if they think things aren’t fair. A good place to start would be to eliminate all of these clumsy and simple models that they use and just admit that the real world is too complicated for them to work. They are in the empirical zone whether they like it or not. Take the world as it is, don’t try to shoehorn it into some oversimplified differential equation.
What do we do with those who just aren’t going to do high tech work?
We know of at least two things that have worked before and will probably work again. Quit saturating the labor market with fresh imported meat and stop subsidizing those who work to outsource and eliminate jobs in country. See if doing this doesn’t take some of the pressure off of both the skilled and unskilled portions of our labor force. See if changing the incentive for corporations doesn’t result in them trying to improve our skills instead of ignoring our own struggling citizens. With 40 or 50 million unemployed, jobs are more important to our society than efficiency past the point of staying comfortably solvent. We need to start acting like it.
Corporations exist at the whim of society. There is a reason they were never mentioned in the constitution. and the only reason they should exist in a democratic nation is because the privileges granted them by law are repaid via the benefits they provide to society. Incentivize them to benefit society and if they still don’t them strip them of the corporate shelter. Our founders would have thought us mad to allow corporations to exist in the first place. They wanted thousands of farmers and small businessmen not corporations with thousands of employees.
What about H1-B visas?
Change the incentives. Only allow them for people who will make, say, 3 or 4 times the average national salary. Then make the companies that hire them pay a special tax of 25% of the salary of the visa holder that goes into an isolated fund that provides scholarships to those who will study this specialty in college. Problem solved. How simple is that?
Or better yet, just read every Thomas Frank book and craft proposals from the insights in its pages. :slight_smile:
Will

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that 25% tax on employers would be a really good way to see if the employers really couldn’t find qualified citizens for the jobs or if they were just trying to get better educated workers for cheap! Some of the farm work done by illegals right now could be done by lower skill citizens. I am willing to pay a bit more for my veggies (that I don’t grow) if we can keep out illegals and use our own people to pick the crops. We would have a better safety net if it wasn’t constantly being taxed by indigent non citizens. We should help our own people before we want to save the poor of the rest of the world.

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Agree 110%! My spouse and I came from”humble” backgrounds. We worked 7 days a week, sometimes 2 jobs, paid for college and flight training ourselves, never went on vacations. One summer we went to the lake ONCE! We got to where we are now through our own hard work. No help from anyone. Or the government…