At least some people are doubting China’s numbers, from Barron’s:
“ECONOMIC BEAT
China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. “This Never Happens With Real Data”
Health officials in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak reported a surge in new infections Thursday after changing how they diagnose the illness. The announcement underpins signs that the virus data out of China is flawed.
Officials in the Hubei province, made up of 60 million people, reported more than 13,000 new cases when they expanded how they test patients from throat-swabs to more thorough examinations. The new cases brought the total count to nearly 60,000 infections from 45,000 on Wednesday. Most of those cases and all but one death have been in China.
The sharp revision out of Hubei casts further doubt that the numbers China is reporting to the World Health Organization are reliable. Virus data from China have been in focus in recent weeks as economists and investors try to gauge the economic toll of the outbreak, which has already slowed the world’s second-largest economy and led many U.S. companies operating there to suspend operations. After hitting record highs Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes dipped Thursday on the new revelations.
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.
China’s U.S. embassy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.
“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”
For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
There’s one scenario where the data could be understandably manipulated, Goodman said. Because there are privacy concerns around public health data, it’s conceivable that someone would simulate the data based on real data, so as not to make the data identifiable. But even then, the r-squared in this case is extraordinarily high. Moreover, Goodman said when data are manipulated to protect privacy, it would need to be disclosed; there is no such disclosure on the WHO site.
Some economists say there is a longstanding measurement problem in China, irrespective of the coronavirus. Official economic statistics often differ from private attempts to replicate the results. The government-created purchasing-managers index was stronger than a closely watched private version during every month of 2019.
“It’s an emerging economy,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “There’s a natural roughness to the data.”
But questionable data makes forecasting the severity of the virus and economic hit in China and beyond that much harder.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said he expects the outbreak to shave 1.5 percentage points off Chinese gross domestic product this year. He recently revised his 2020 GDP estimate for China to 4.6% from 6.1%, and he said he thinks the virus will take a 0.5 percentage point off global growth this year.
Estimates like Slok’s, of course, are based in part on data being supplied to the WHO by China.”
The link is working for me, the actual hearing doesn’t start until around 18 minutes into the video.
Reading about the latest round of Chinese big city quarantine efforts enforced by soldiers. I’m reminded of Isaac Asimov’s bathroom metaphor.
If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, then both have what I call freedom of the bathroom, go to the bathroom any time you want, and stay as long as you want to for whatever you need. And this to my way is ideal. And everyone believes in the freedom of the bathroom. It should be right there in the Constitution. But if you have 20 people in the apartment and two bathrooms, no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom, there is no such thing. You have to set up times for each person, you have to bang at the door, aren't you through yet, and so on. And in the same way, …human dignity …. and decency cannot survive [high population density].I believe that we are looking at the same type of issue with quarantine. In a rural environment social distancing can be done by mutual agreement and follows pretty naturally--our family sticks to ourselves and asks you folks not to come over or approach our house. We milk our cows, work our gardens and walk the dogs on quiet roadways pretty much alone. But in the city, where neighbors live within 20 feet of each other and pass within touching distances in the hallways, social distancing will have to be decreed with laws enforced at the barrel of a soldier's gun. Where do I want to be during this phase? Pretty clear to me. In a very low density setting. Maybe a rural apartment would be good to scope out?
CDC urges local hospitals to develop pandemic plan
Coronavirus has now surpassed the number of people infected with Ebola, SARS and MERS combined. As those numbers continue to climb, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now urging local hospitals to get out their pandemic plans and start preparing. Doctors across the United States are using a novel coronavirus tracker created by Johns Hopkins University to prepare for a possible pandemic or outbreak. Firefighters, ambulance crews and clinic workers are on the front lines of trying to prevent an outbreak of the new coronavirus in southeast Wisconsin by isolating those who are sick. https://www.wisn.com/article/cdc-urges-local-hospitals-to-develop-pandemic-plan/30918555 ========================Over 1,700 frontline medics infected with coronavirus in China, presenting new crisis for the government
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/index.htmlChris’s Is it Unstoppable post is helping me deal with my own fears about this virus. I feel like a young child who is facing a doctor appointment where he will get 3 shots. The fear, uncertainty and continued angst about the upcoming appointment occupies all his time and paralyzes the boy. His mom then tells him that it’s going to happen and there’s nothing he can do to stop it, so it is time for him to put on his big boy pants, get the shots, experience the pain, then move on.
I have been a Prepper since 1998. I have enough supplies to self-quarantine for at least three months. I have masks, protective suits, alternate ways to heat my home, generators and fuel. I have water filters that remove bacteria from water so I can use rainwater or river water. I have multiple HEPA filtration units, all of which have UV lights to kill bacteria and viruses. I have medical supplies, prescription meds and a stockpile of antibiotics and other commonly prescribed prescription meds. I have defensive items. I even have a friend who lives in a remote location where I could retreat to with all my “stuff”. I’ve been preparing for something like this for more than 20 years. But I find myself as scared of the next several months as that little boy waiting for his shots.
It now looks probable that this virus is unstoppable and that almost every one of us will eventually be exposed to it. Some of us will breeze through it, some will get sick, others very sick, and a small percentage will die. I will still do my best to avoid being exposed, but it is time for me to face the fact most of the 7.5 billion people on earth will probably eventually be exposed and even I won’t be able to avoid exposure forever.
I’m trying to turn my fear into acceptance that it’s coming, that we can’t avoid exposure forever, so it is time to put on my big boy pants, face it as bravely as I can, and hope that I will make it through.
James, I’m certainly willing to entertain the possibility that this is NOT man made. However, the Dailymail article you posted is beyond lame. They don’t offer any evidence to make their case. That article also says that this is an epidemic, not a pandemic. Their use of the term ‘conspiracy theory’ allows them not to discuss any actual data but rather discredit anybody who brings up the topic.
I just heard that Singapore has the next highest out break of Ninja Virus. They also have had temperatures into the 80’s now suggesting that the Virus may not die off when the weather changes. Just another question mark to a the list of out of sort information.
Mr. C and James, it seems to me that the origins of the virus are at this point irrelevant and that the attempts to pinpoint the origin as “manmade” are simply the need to apportion blame. The main issue I have with this is that in most other areas where this behaviour occurs, once some party has been blamed, it’s “job done” and time to get back to watching TV or whatever. More useful to work out how to respond to the threat than to find someone to be responsible for our upcoming pain, methinks…
The spread of misinformation about the novel coronavirus, now known as COVID-19, seems greater than the spread of the infection itself. The World Health Organisation (WHO), government health departments and others are trying to alert people to these myths. But what’s the best way to tackle these if they come up in everyday conversation, whether that’s face-to-face or online? Is it best to ignore them, jump in to correct them, or are there other strategies we could all use? Source
The Globe and Mail (see link to myth above) is soothing and needs to be considered. But are they also saying “peace in our time” ?
In a lot of rural areas, with large stocks of aging housing and decreasing populations, non-transient working people have houses. There is a large underclass who are either on welfare or working at minimum wage who flock to the apartments as they are built.
I’d be really careful about an apartment building. The neighbors will NOT be self-sufficient nor respectful of your rights.
Rent an old farmhouse or an old house left vacant when it’s elderly owner died. you know how to camp out. It’s just easier inside a house. Ask the locals what’s empty and how to contact the family to talk about rental. You’re looking for an empty farmhouse on an acreage where the owner has bought up additional acreage leaving them with two houses. Also, some farmers with off-farm jobs live in a more convenient town and commute to the farm instead of the other way, leaving a house empty. They will rent to you and they will be great neighbors.
Feds Employ ‘Early Warning System’; San Francisco Flu Patients To Be Tested For Coronavirus
“Calling it an “early warning system,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced Friday that flu patients in San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago would also undergo testing for the coronavirus.”
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-san-francisco-flu-patients-tested-for-coronavirus/
China is diagnosing coronavirus patients by looking for ‘ground glass’ in their lungs. Take a look at the CT scans.
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-2
Cui Bono - who benefits? Also, if you follow the money it takes you to high places and the uber rich.
LeMon3 - the point isn’t about assigning blame it is about holding people accountable for the deaths and suffering of countless people. If we as a society choose to ignore who, how, and why we condone and even enable the next incident. Mass murder should not be dismissed lightly.
It behoves us all to ask for answers or we will relive the past, over and over.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-disintegrating-steel-demand-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero
This is not going to restart in a week or 2. It will be months…
Start stocking up…
Man Kills Himself After Mistakenly Thinking That He Has Coronavirus
“A man has taken his own life after mistakenly thinking that he had been infected with coronavirus. It was gathered that he died by hanging himself from a tree in a bid to avoid the transmission of the virus to his family in India.”
“The family of 50-year-old Bala Krishna said he had obsessively watched videos about the spread of the disease after contracting viral fever he wrongly thought was coronavirus.”
https://9jaflaver.com/man-kills-himself-after-mistakenly-thinking-that-he-has-coronavirus-photo/
Cheapseats,
Having now sat through that Senate testimony link you provided, I agree with you that it is worth the time to listen to (as someone noted - skip forward to minute 18 for the start of the testimony). It fits with a lot of what has been said here for a while now, so this is a precocious community, not alarmist. Dr. Gottleib was the most articulate on the matter and especially on where the danger lies for the rest of the world. Namely the number of ‘çases’ that we haven’t detected as of yet.
He’s referring to exactly what I spelled out 8 days ago in my Math and Mortality post. Namely that we likely have several ongoing outbreaks in the US that haven’t risen to a noticeable level yet.
His comparison to Singapore is apt. The number of Chinese visitors to Singapore and the United States are comparable (3.4 vs 3 million/yr). However, the nation of Singapore is actually a city-state so all the infections are concentrated in one place and much more easily detected. They are also an amazingly organized and equipped country. Stay times in Singapore are likely shorter than the US but it’s interesting that if you simply scale by annual visitors (~90% for the US) and number of current cases in Singapore (67) and the modeled expectation for infected people being caught ~25% then 0.9 x 67 x .25 = 15 (which just happens to be the number of currently known cases in the United States)… eerie.
Perhaps that’s just coincidental but it would equate to having another 45 unknown and undetected but infected people running around somewhere in the country. That’s actually a very back of the envelope number but it gets the point across. There are likely several spreading outbreaks in the US (and other countries for that matter).
Hence the estimation by one of the speakers that we will probably start seeing outbreaks crop up across the country within the next 2-4 weeks as those doubling times and delayed complication rates start adding up to unusual concentrations of emergency room visits with unexplained pneumonia symptoms.