This guy was a raging lunatic - You have about 80% chance of mild and about 50-90% chance of surviving severe. That makes no sense… this is 90% plus survivable… this makes no sense - he and his family was not infirm in anyway… this is really nuts. I do not think there is much loss - he was gone long ago…
曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd
This is really a bombshell. Naval University of Engineering in #Wuhan, one of the five comprehensive military universities of PLA (official info: http://bit.ly/2URmJ5x) issued a lockdown notice on Jan. 2, 18 days BEFORE the gov. admitted there was an epidemic, 21 days BEFORE..
Chinese experts said that there may be a surge on #COVID19 confirmed recently as more cities outside #Wuhan in Hubei include clinically diagnosed cases and medical staff may face more pressure. http://bit.ly/2Srokx5
I think that Chris can upgrade his doom scenario for the financial world.
I have said this was issue since about 23 of Jan. This was a real deal. but it was not going to be a humanity ender in any way… I did think we will have overwhelmed medical and additional deaths of all causes due to that… But now I see this as much much worse economically than I originally thought. I do see starvation and other required resources being an issue during this plague. AND I now believe there will be significant very very significant social unrest - as health and death issues become more severe - but when the true economic impacts begins to surface, I see something much much worse than I ever imagined as a rational man. I am not in panic mode… I am too old for this but have young child whom I am greatly concerned about the future. And , I do not have the resources to prep or protect her for the next few years , that I expect to be very very bad. ( even if you survive the virus )
IMO, yes, I think this man had perhaps some mental health problems that led him to commit suicide. Any crisis will push individuals that are already unstable over the edge. This story hasn’t hit MSM yet. If it does, I think it will be used as an example of the dangers of profiteering trolls and conspiracy theorists that are pushing the Covid-2019 “infodemic” of misinformation, causing panic among the public. We’ll see.
Department of Health just did a presser – Japanese tourist who was on Oahu and Maui for 11 days developed symptoms on 2/3 and upon return to Japan was hospitalized for Covid-19.
I’ve basically been acting as if it was here for a couple weeks. Now we know. Big change that this will cause is the rank and file will start to panic and prep.
Better to be a year early than a day late. Prepare accordingly…
VIVA – Sager
There is plenty of time to prepare the stores are FULL of stuff. Maybe take a break from looking at all this news. Singapore, with its 5 million people and 67 reported cases, is not in a state of chaos. Until your immediate area is reporting 100s of cases things will remain normal.
Christ well there it is. I am supposed to go to Maui in a couple of weeks and I have been biting my nails wondering what I should do. I have been so sure my friends won’t take this virus seriously that I haven’t even talked to them about it yet. This might finally be the piece of media I can show them.
Poor Hawaii.
I think your comment is relevant for further consideration.
I own a busy retail store in a busy tourist location and have hundreds of thousands of people come through a year from all over the world. My daughter works with me. My husband is a full time FF/EMT and my son is a full time FF/EMT and his new wife is a stewardess for a major airline. We are all exposed daily to lots of people from all over the world, so you can imagine how terrifying this is for our family- I envy those of you who can self isolate. I am a big believer in being prepared not scared so we are making sure we have supplies and medicine, we are peppers so we know how to hunt and live off the land but that is not easy or something that you want to have to do to survive. I get off work and watch your videos every night and I am so thankful for all the hard work you put into them, its keeping me up to date and making me feel less alone in facing this monster of a virus! I am also trying to enjoy the day and live in the moment because thats really all we have, situations like this have a way of bringing you back to what is important! stock up on your elderberry, Vit C and try and get extra rest! Wishing all of you health and strength and we face this!
I’m working under the assumption that there are some undiagnosed people in the USA. There was a daily flight to JFK from Wuhan, which was only cancelled in late January. I believe one to LAX as well. There could have been 30k people from Wuhan flying to the USA since the infection began till flights were stopped. I’m assuming Dr Gottlieb is correct and that there will be identified outbreaks in major cities by mid April, and self sustaining epidemic by mid May. I’m also assuming that stocks will run low from supply chain disruptions by them. The .gov will quarantine and prevent secondary effects on the economy, supply chain and social order. The rationing of essential supplies will require a heavy hand. More people will probably be impacted by the secondary effects than covid 19 itself.
Mongolia’s gov’t is still keeping mum about the rumored coronavirus death in Khuvsgul Province. I still entertain the possibility it was a spurious rumor, but the fact that the gov’t here has given zero evidence to the contrary about the quarantined person is not helping their case. In fact the news will only mention the ‘fake news consequences’ angle of the story and avoid any mention of the person in question:
COVID-19: fake news arrests
https://news.mn/en/790905/
Just on a side note, the social adaptations here in Ulaanbaatar might speak to what other places might experience if/when this spreads widely. Restaurants and food courts are still open, but seem to be doing less business. The school & university shutdowns have been extended almost another month to the end of March. Businesses that run on children’s activities or child care are shut down, but presumably still need to pay rent and other expenses (and their employees are without jobs in the meantime). The coal exports (and presumably other mineral exports) to China have been stopped after some of the coal truck drivers got flu-like symptoms, so that means even more people without jobs. That is likely to be followed by some of the mining workers being let go or put on extended unpaid leave (and those are well-paid jobs compared to the national average). I can’t imagine them getting through this without social capital and systems of support with family & friends.
I made this plot of confirmed cases versus the exposure to Chinese tourists. I think this can be used to estimate how many undetected cases there might be in countries. Countries like Japan, Singapore , Germany and France are at the top of the envelope, all plot in a line as of Feb 7, all probably find the most cases, these 4 have an R squared of 99%. Then the distance of the other countries to this line can give us an estimate of the number of undetected cases. Thailand more than 80, US thirty, Phil 10, all as of Feb 7. Here is the plot. And the volume data.
Here is the table
The red line is a regression through all the points.
Cui bono? I can’t imagine that this is ‘good’ for the uber rich. Such a diabolical plan would require them to first have a vaccine for themselves, I would think. Have they thought about supply chains for their private jets, the health of all their servants etc… This seems more like an accidental release. Or maybe a bat had relations with a snake… we just don’t know at this point. We may never know.
Re: Senate hearing
This was good and informative, until Sen. Harris made it outright political. What a shame.
This is a reply to the person who said we have never controlled a pandemic before. I haven’t heard Chris make any references to ROs of Polio. Even at the higher end of the estimate, I believe this Covid-19 is very similar to Polio. There have been virus outbreaks since 1919 that were controlled & have been almost completely eradicated. Thanks for providing all your services Chris & Adam but a little balance might help some of these newer members gain a little more perspective.
There is some debate as to the efficacy of the vaccine to curb polio outside of mainstream science. The argument has been made that the outbreak was already on the decline when the vaccine was introduced.
While I am not going to argue for or against, it may be interesting to note that there do not appear to be any studies of the efficacy of a vaccine vs. not vaccinating (a control group) in which side effects are tracked. (If you believe that there are no harmful possible side effects, one need only read the insert which comes with the vaccine itself.) It may also be interesting to note that a vaccine is supposed to protect the recipient from disease, yet people who can’t be bothered to hold the door open for me in a rainstorm are terrified that I might NOT get a vaccine… like they care if I get sick or not? As a vaccinated person, they are protected, right?
Or is something strange here? Nevermind, what are the Kardashians up to these days?
We have been told that a SARS vaccine was produced and served only to supercharge the body’s negative reaction to the virus in mice. We cannot confirm nor disprove that a SARS vaccine was introduced in Wuhan or elsewhere in China.
We also have to deal with the asymptomatic spread of the virus and the rate of contagion; I’m not even sure that we have proof that it is not transmitted as an aerosol. Too many unknowns to declare “all clear” quite yet. My signal that it’s probably okay is a month after the Superbowl- the US equivalent to Wuhan’s CNY exodus.
If the coronavirus can in theory be transmitted 24 days after infection does that support the theory that this outbreak occurred due to a lab accident (did someone get infected who did not quarantine themselves for the proper 24 day time period)? Also does anyone really believe this new virus outbreak was not a Chinese lab accident? Really?
Why do I not see an analysis (sick, severe, deaths) by ethnic background of patients? I want to understand if the ace2 argument has any validity. Does this virus hit Asians much harder than non-Asians or is that a bogus theory?
How can China lock down 760 million people and yet we still see its stock market rise? Does this make any sense to anyone?
Why are we not discussing what happens to those who get a severe dose of this disease and recover? Are they permanently damaged (e.g., lungs scarred, heart damaged, kidneys damaged, etc.)? Is their life span shortened?
If the r naught is as high as 4-6 as stated in many articles (and supported by the numbers from the ship off Japan) than this disease should be almost everywhere in China and if that is the case then either China is hiding many many deaths or the death rate is very very very low.
Truth9834, your questions have been extensively covered here, you just have to take some time and read thru the old post comments.
If the coronavirus can in theory be transmitted 24 days after infection does that support the theory that this outbreak occurred due to a lab accident (did someone get infected who did not quarantine themselves for the proper 24 day time period)? Also does anyone really believe this new virus outbreak was not a Chinese lab accident? Really?The answer to that is up for debate. Some say it may be a accidental release and others say its natural. Read the threads.
Why do I not see an analysis (sick, severe, deaths) by ethnic background of patients? I want to understand if the ace2 argument has any validity. Does this virus hit Asians much harder than non-Asians or is that a bogus theory?Extensive analysis has been shown here in comments. Ethnic background doesn't seem to be a factor. Neither does smoking. Read the threads.
How can China lock down 760 million people and yet we still see its stock market rise? Does this make any sense to anyone?Chris and others have spoken at length on how the Markets are being used to send the signal "All is Fine". It doesn't make any sense to those of us who have been following this. Again read the threads.
Why are we not discussing what happens to those who get a severe dose of this disease and recover? Are they permanently damaged (e.g., lungs scarred, heart damaged, kidneys damaged, etc.)? Is their life span shortened?Repeated discussion by many here that it appears you can get the virus a second time and that early damage can cause severe complications, including heart failure". Did I suggest, read the threads?
If the r naught is as high as 4-6 as stated in many articles (and supported by the numbers from the ship off Japan) than this disease should be almost everywhere in China and if that is the case then either China is hiding many many deaths or the death rate is very very very low.Very early on, we realized the Chinese numbers were fake. I know people who are just realizing that the situation is serious AND who are just finding Peak Prosperity want answers BUT Chris and the community have been covering this for almost three weeks. Take some time and read what has been written here please. There is a huge amount of informative and informative posts by dozens of people who answer your questions in depth. Take your own safety in your own hands, don't expect others to hold them for you.
I wonder how all those tormented Uighurs are doing out in Xinjiang…? Any Covid-19 cases seen out there? If those people are highly susceptible to the virus, CCP might “discover” a large outbreak “out west”- unfortunately too far away from available State resources to contain…Then again, losing all those folks might hinder the reported organ harvesting program in China. Can’t imagine that program having many customers (recipients, anyway) in the near term, given the current situation. Now that I think about it, as the CCP seems preoccupied with other matters, perhaps it’s time for a bit of insurrection out west…Best to all, Aloha, Steve