Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/israel-strikes-lebanon-amid-us-iran-mou-ceasefire-deal-as-hormuz-reopens-and-cushing-hits-critical-lows/
Geopolitics
The U.S. and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding. The 14-point agreement includes an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, reopening of Hormuz within 30 days, $300 billion in economic development financing for Iran, release of frozen assets, and oil-export waivers in exchange for a nuclear-program freeze pending a final deal within 60 days. At the G7, Trump stated reserves would have run out in about four weeks and said the U.S. would resume military action if compliance falters. Iran’s foreign ministry stated Israeli attacks on Lebanon would be treated as a breach. Critics have described the agreement as providing major concessions to Iran.
Despite the pending MOU, Israeli drone and jet strikes hit Mansouri, Aaziyyeh, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and Kfar Tebnit in southern Lebanon, injuring several people. Hezbollah retaliation wounded five Israeli soldiers. Trump stated at the G7 that Netanyahu needed to be more responsible. Israel rejected a U.S. request to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon. Lebanon’s health ministry reported over 3,800 killed since March 2.
Energy
Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen for eight straight weeks to roughly 20 million barrels, the lowest seasonal level since 2005. Traders have described levels below this point as an operational minimum. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell another 8.9 million barrels to about 340 million, the lowest since 1983. The IEA reported OECD crude inventories fell 163 million barrels during the conflict to their lowest since 1990. Midwest refineries processed record volumes, and U.S. exports reached record highs.
Meanwhile, energy flows through Hormuz have begun to restart after the interim deal, with three Saudi-controlled supertankers switching on transponders and exiting the Persian Gulf. Bloomberg counted a 31-supertanker backlog carrying about 62 million barrels. Goldman Sachs estimates exports may normalize to 70% of pre-war levels by the end of next month. Brent fell below $78, and WTI traded near $74. U.S. gasoline dipped below $4 per gallon for the first time since March.
In Poland, the government approved a 60% windfall tax on excess fuel-sector profits earned between March and December 2026, calculated on margins exceeding 2025 averages by more than 20%. The Finance Ministry projects the levy will raise roughly 4 billion zloty (~$1.1 billion), with state-controlled Orlen shouldering about 60% of the burden. The rate was reduced from an initial 75% after industry warnings that effective taxation could reach 94%. The bill requires sign-off from President Karol Nawrocki. Warsaw states that the tax recovers roughly $435 million per month spent on VAT and excise cuts.
In Russia’s Irkutsk region, farmers have reported diesel shortages affecting at least 25 regions, linked to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. Wholesale suppliers have redirected fuel toward Moscow, leaving agricultural equipment unable to refuel at ordinary stations. A pilot plant in the Usolsky district halted its sowing campaign. One commentator described the situation as indicative of risks to global food systems, citing Russia’s role as a grain exporter and conditions in Australia and the United States. Some observers have questioned the scale of reported shortages in a major oil-producing country.
Economy
ECB officials stated Europe’s energy price shock will continue for months. After raising rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, the central bank has not ruled out further increases as Eurozone inflation reached 3.2% in May. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that higher energy costs will remain longer than many had hoped. Ireland’s Gabriel Makhlouf stated that an end to conflict does not necessarily mean an immediate end to the shock. One economist has called the recent rate increase a potential policy mistake amid declining commodity prices.
US Politics
Trump invoked the Defense Production Act on June 11 to accelerate weapons manufacturing, citing supply-chain risks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is seeking a $350 billion defense package aimed at replenishing missile and weapons stockpiles. Senator John Cornyn stated the Pentagon is running short of funding. Earlier public statements by Hegseth had described stockpiles as strong.
In other news, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed a $56 billion budget that includes a 0.2% tax on businesses exchanging, transferring, or storing digital assets for state residents, applicable to firms with at least $100,000 in gross receipts. The provision, projected to raise $60 million, takes effect January 1, 2027. The Crypto Council for Innovation has requested a line-item veto. One observer stated the tax follows the industry’s support for Pritzker’s opponent in a recent primary. Lawsuits have reportedly been discussed. Industry figures have warned the measure could drive businesses and jobs from the state.
Artificial Intelligence
Apple CEO Tim Cook told the WSJ that price hikes are unavoidable as memory and storage costs become unsustainable due to AI demand. Prices have quadrupled since last year. TechInsights estimated a $270 hike could be required to preserve iPhone 18 Pro margins. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shares have risen over 800%, while Kioxia and Sandisk are up 4,600%. Morgan Stanley forecasts U.S. smartphone and PC prices rising 15% this year. Cook described the situation as a hundred-year flood. Chinese producers CXMT and YMTC are reportedly preparing to increase supply, with Google evaluating Chinese DRAM procurement. Chinese suppliers are reportedly expanding capacity, which could help ease shortages.
Privacy & Surveillance
A Fortinet-related breach reported by Hudson Rock and researcher Bob Diachenko exposed credentials for thousands of networks. Attackers intercepted SSL VPN authentication hashes and cracked them using a 45-GPU cluster. Confirmed compromises occurred in Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Iraq, and Turkey. The top affected countries included India, the U.S., Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey, and Thailand. Victims included Foxconn, Samsung, Comcast, Siemens, PwC, Accenture, and government agencies.
British Politics
A report from MP Rupert Lowe alleges that at least 250,000 British girls were subjected to sexual abuse by grooming gangs operating in 149 UK districts. The report cites convictions where 87% of perpetrators had Muslim names and draws on survivor interviews and FOI requests. It states Keir Starmer, as Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008–2013, let 13,000 individuals off with warning letters and describes Labour’s inquiry as a containment exercise. Mainstream media coverage of the report has been limited. Some commentators have questioned aspects of the report’s methodology and terminology.
Sources
Poland Approves 60% Windfall Tax on Fuel Firms’ Iran War Profits
Poland’s government has approved a one-off windfall tax on fuel companies that benefited from soaring energy prices during the U.S.-Iran-Israel war.
Source | Submitted by Justin
Fortinet Breach: GPU Crackers Steal NATO Secrets from Global Networks
Massive breach spills credentials for thousands of sensitive networks
Source | Submitted by Shplad
Russian Farmers Face Agriculture Shutdown Over Diesel Shortages
We need to prepare for the complete closure of all agriculture in the Irkutsk region.
Source | Submitted by Redneck Engineer
US-Iran Sign MOU Early to Reopen Hormuz Amid Oil Crunch
The US and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of schedule, and the agreement is now in effect, Axios reports.
Source | Submitted by StudioSHTF
ECB: Iran Deal Won’t End Europe’s Lingering Energy Shock
“Higher energy costs are likely to remain with us longer than many had hoped,” ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said in remarks carried by Bloomberg.
“The Situation Has Become Unsustainable”: Apple to Raise Prices Amid AI-Driven Memory Costs
The situation has become unsustainable.
Trump Invokes Defense Production Act to Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles
Last week, he quietly invoked the Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era law that allows the federal government to prioritize contracts and coordinate industry efforts to expand critical manufacturing.
Cushing Crude Stocks Near Minimum After Eight-Week Drawdown
Inventories at Cushing, the largest commercial crude oil storage hub in the U.S., have fallen for eight weeks in a row and now stand at about 20 million barrels, according to government data published June 17.
Rupert Lowe’s Report Exposes Starmer’s Complicity in Britain’s Mass Grooming Scandal
At least 250,000 British girls suffered sickening sexual abuse by Pakistani gangs, who were enabled by police, social workers, and even Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to commit “child rape on an industrial scale,” British MP Rupert Lowe’s ‘Rape Gang Report’ has detailed.
Cushing Stocks Crash to ‘Tank Bottoms,’ Lowest Since 2005 as SPR Drains Surge
This is the lowest level for Cushing stocks for this time of year since 2005…
Source | Submitted by PhilH
Illinois Slips 0.2% Crypto Tax Into Budget, Leaving Industry Scrambling
The crypto industry is pushing back against a new tax law in the state of Illinois that enacts a 0.2% tax on businesses transacting or storing crypto for customers in the state, but it may be too late to change it in the short-term.
Hormuz Reopens as Saudi Tankers Exit, Flooding Asia With Gulf Oil
Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.
Israel Strikes Lebanon Despite Trump Rebuke
Israeli forces have carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon, state media say, despite renewed criticism from US President Donald Trump of Israel’s actions in the country.
Source | Submitted by Chris Martenson
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Fox News, NY Post Opinion, Daniel Lacalle, CoinDesk, Coinbase CEO, UnHerd.
