Here’s the link to the IEA press release.
http://www.iea.org/speech/2009/Tanaka/WEO2009_Press_Conference.pdf
The format has been altered significantly from last years and it doesn’t appear to have been done to aid readability.
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I just saw this story on Fox News… just kidding.
Could it not be a good thing that oil is going to run out? How much does it contribute to global warming and the destruction of the planet? I don’t know what the figures are, but I know if there was an endless supply of oil, that could not be good. We have to look for cleaner alternative sources of energy. This will force our hand.
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While I agree that there are many bad things that come with our consumption of oil, a steep and jarring drop in it’s supply (we will never actually run out completely) would be devastating for mankind. It is not just fuel we are talking about, it is much of your clothing, cookware, insulation, chemicals, lubrication, paint, tools, really it makes up a significant portion of what we call daily necessities. IF we were talking only about fuel for personal vehicles, yes, I would almost agree with you that it would force us to ration the remaining reserves for only the vitals- but even that would trigger a world wide panic due to trickle down shortages.
I too, would love to see people “forced” to make this cutback now- as a rehearsal to the real thing. But to be truly forced to play that hand would be ugly- it would be Mad Max here and now.
Signalfire
Somewhere in the annals of chris martenson.com, there was a report of people who had defaulted on their mortgages,but were able to keep their houses. I think it was in the state of Massachussetts. The bank either lost the appropriate documentation or it was not done properly in the first place, negating the banks claim on the property. I would at least look into this… nothing venture nothing gained.
Brian
If you happen to be on a social networking site, this is a great blog posting to share with your friends and family who are not in tune to things. On the upper right portion of this window, click on share, and then choose your networking site. You can add a little note, such as “If you drive a car, or heat your home with oil, you may want to read this”.
As noted, Peak Oil means substantially limited growth, but not the end of energy. Decline rates are mitigated by continued supply increases, even if the increases don’t keep up with decline. Technology continues to improve our ability to find and produce oil…again, this can only be expected to mitigate the decline of availability. However, once we fully realize there is a critical problem, I’m thinking things will be substantially stabilized by about 5-10 years later. When we adjust our energy availability expectations and demands, the new situation will become “normal” but getting there will be pretty bumpy, especially in the beginning years as peoples’ perceived world adjusts to the real world.
I’m a little surprised that this has hit the US MSM so rapidly, but I’m sure there will be a “counter story” coming out soon that helps reflate expectations and serves to confuse so that many people won’t take this IEA story seriously. That’s the way our media works here.
In my understanding of this, the most immediate and even severe problems that we face are not truly oil. The issue at hand would be a loss of confidence, a financial panic, civil unrest, and war. These are the sorts of things that can turn one’s life upside down in weeks and months, whereas the oil decline will take decades to fully play out. Of course, the panics that could ensue from the realization that the oil situation is strained could feed back and cause oil supply shortages, it is true. But if trust is justifiably re-established and prudence reigns, we’ve got a great opportunity to restructure things in a positive way, just as Chris implied.
Thus, in my opinion, the most immediate necessity is not even dealing with oil and alternatives directly. First, I believe we need political acknowledgement of the issue and a level of honesty and communication that fosters understanding and cooperation rather than panic. Absent this, we could have all the oil we want and still possibly have a panic for one reason or another.
It is just a sad state of affairs that we need to rely on the gang of 535 to “guide” us in this challenging time. A major component of the solution is simply an open acknowledgement of the severity of the problem - but I believe trust would be misplaced in hoping that DC will rectify the situation.
History indicates that bread and circus are very nearly as fundamental to a human’s “needs” as food and water and shelter - sad though it may be. I don’t honestly expect signficant political improvement until most people in this country feel those very fundamental needs are severely threatened. By that point, they may not even be able to demand a redress as readily.
Puts the Iraq War in perspective, doesn’t it?
BTW Chris et. al.–this article is why I read The Guardian.
The passed two years a huge pipeline company has been running multilevel pipes through here . Supposed to move several different gasses . It is linked from Louisiana to North Dakota and now they are heading to Florida. Maybe they have a plan of some sort in the works ? ??
[quote=Mike Pilat]
war.
[/quote]In my honest and blunt estimation if we don’t find alternative sources and batteries capable of storing them - war will be the outcome.
Chris thanks again for all you do. I have had a knawing question that I would like some input on from all. I believe in the Peak Oil and agree it is closer than we think and that once the realization is there oil will forever be well over the $100/bbl mark. I also don’t believe in what the US govt is doing and thus think the dollar will have a continual decline. I have believed that for several years. I don’t own US stocks anymore so I looked for something that could prosper with a falling dollar and post peak oil. I am heavily invested in Canadian and to a minor degree international oil companies with growing production on both ends.
Chris keeps talking about the collapse of the stock market. I have done the PM’s but feel in a post oil peak realization and weakening dollar this is the best place for me for a while. I would then cash out and start investing in farmland. Chris would love to hear your thoughts but please anyone shoot holes in my theory. It might give others a chance to learn as well as myself.
Many Thanks.
I’m really puzzled by the reference to electric cars and carbon fiber as “fantasy technology”. No doubt, these technologies are not currently optimized for true mass production, but they are real and they are available. Today.
Here in California at the local mall, there are half a dozen electric car recharging stations, installed, operational-and totally vacant. I personally know people who have advance ordered electric cars (Tesla) and others that have converted gasoline vehicles to fully electric. A review of the automotive trade journals will show that about a dozen fully electric (not hybrid) vehicles are coming on line in the next 12-24 months from the major manufacturers.
Regarding the use of carbon fiber in transportation, the airline industry is involved in a multi-billion dollar effort to replace metals in primary airframe with composite construction. The current 787 Boeing airliner is 65% composite, when it used to be aluminum. Fantasy technology? I think they would be surprised to hear this. The sole reason for this conversion is for fuel savings-no other reason.
I am investigating adding solar panels to my roof to support not only my personal power needs, but to replace my need for gasoline at least for my daily driver ( 12 mile commute round trip)
I have “done the math” on net energy required to manufacture, install and use PV cells, and the energy cross over is around 3 years.
While I applaud (and agree with) the macro look at these key issues such as peak oil, I find missing the “grass roots” tactical outlook which might focus on what we can do today.
The rate and magnitude which this country can mobilize resources, particularly manufacturing resources in the face of a crisis is truly remarkable. Don’t discount the ability of American manufacturing to rapidly convert to a predominantly electric transportation infrastructure very quickly.
Moving back to oil consumption, I believe approximately 70% of the oil utilized in the US goes to transportation. Now clearly, converting large scale trucking, air travel and other high load/long distance applications to electric power is not practical, and to that end, electric cars are no panacea as many cannot afford to switch technologies nor are the current range values useful for many Americans.
But this does not ovveride the point that such a conversion will work to attenuate our immediate and future oil needs, and will slow the transition from peak oil to a crisis that can be managed in a reasonable time scale.
To not account for and anticipate this possibility is a major mistake in my view.
[quote=darbikrash]
I’m really puzzled by the reference to electric cars and carbon fiber as “fantasy technology”. No doubt, these technologies are not currently optimized for true mass production, but they are real and they are available. Today.
Here in California at the local mall, there are half a dozen electric car recharging stations, installed, operational-and totally vacant. I personally know people who have advance ordered electric cars (Tesla) and others that have converted gasoline vehicles to fully electric. A review of the automotive trade journals will show that about a dozen fully electric (not hybrid) vehicles are coming on line in the next 12-24 months from the major manufacturers.
Regarding the use of carbon fiber in transportation, the airline industry is involved in a multi-billion dollar effort to replace metals in primary airframe with composite construction. The current 787 Boeing airliner is 65% composite, when it used to be aluminum. Fantasy technology? I think they would be surprised to hear this. The sole reason for this conversion is for fuel savings-no other reason.
I am investigating adding solar panels to my roof to support not only my personal power needs, but to replace my need for gasoline at least for my daily driver ( 12 mile commute round trip)
I have “done the math” on net energy required to manufacture, install and use PV cells, and the energy cross over is around 3 years.
While I applaud (and agree with) the macro look at these key issues such as peak oil, I find missing the “grass roots” tactical outlook which might focus on what we can do today.
The rate and magnitude which this country can mobilize resources, particularly manufacturing resources in the face of a crisis is truly remarkable. Don’t discount the ability of American manufacturing to rapidly convert to a predominantly electric transportation infrastructure very quickly.
Moving back to oil consumption, I believe approximately 70% of the oil utilized in the US goes to transportation. Now clearly, converting large scale trucking, air travel and other high load/long distance applications to electric power is not practical, and to that end, electric cars are no panacea as many cannot afford to switch technologies nor are the current range values useful for many Americans.
But this does not ovveride the point that such a conversion will work to attenuate our immediate and future oil needs, and will slow the transition from peak oil to a crisis that can be managed in a reasonable time scale.
To not account for and anticipate this possibility is a major mistake in my view.
[/quote]I’m reading “Understanding Aircraft Composite Construction” on carbon fiber now. I’m reading on other battery technology. I’m optimistic. But, the sad reality is that the should be wearing helmet brigade is digging the debt hole concentrating on health care instead of solutions. The point that resonates from CM with me is that this is the time we should be spending our remaining oil wisely. If it goes before we transition we won’t have any stones to rub together.
i’m not sure if you can trust those reserve numbers. i was in the region during the iran/iraq war. while fighting a war, somehow iraq managed to increase their reserves in 1987 by 28 billion barrels from 1986 levels, with no new reserves found. most likely quota manipulation. with all the turmoil in iraq, the political instability, underinvestment, no doubt poor management of their oil production. i don’t know how their reserve numbers keep increasing. according to i believe it was bp statistics, iraq has come into about 77 billion barrels since 1995. which is amazing considering that the rest of the world is struggling to find 7 billion barrels a year.
make it work and take care of your family, sir.
Thanks everyone, for your encouragement RE my last post. I know about ‘demand the note’ and will do so when the time arrives. For now, a holding pattern. I’m considering whether to max out my credit cards on necessities before they wise up that I’m not gonna pay them anymore or…? It seems immoral, but I see very little in the way of ‘moral’ behavior from them. (Got an offer today from BOA- 3% cash back on christmas shopping!!! AND another from Chase- Here’s a 3.9% check!!! Spend it on something you always wanted!!! (If only they knew… ) Anyone have a number on the sheer magnitude of the happy-happy-joy-joy credit card offers that were sent over the years to We the Sheeple? The volume of paper and ink alone overwhelms…
So, I’m hoping this post does not get lost in the shuffle of an ‘end of comment’ area but it’s quite important:
About 9 months ago, I ran across a research paper by someone who very much apparently knew what they were talking about: that a major pipeline out of Iraq had been opened and was siphoning off oil from a large Iraq field and delivering it to Saudi Arabia. The gist of this was that SA production was declining and the Iraqi oil was being used to serepitiously make up the difference. Anyone else see this? I’d love to get my hands on that report again and I’m not sure how it would be possible to verify the information. If so, that’s a truly devastating commentary on both the SA oil situation and the reason we went into Iraq (hint: it wasn’t about terrorism, it was because ‘the american way of life is not negotiable…’)
Darbikrash - while I applaud your enthusiasm, I’d have to disagree with this statement above. Just some examples from my state of CT - they ordered new rail cars to replace the existing rail cars(which are 30+ years old, about 10-15 years past the life expectancy) about 3 years ago. They were supposed to have arrived during this summer. They have been delayed getting here until next Spring, and then they have to do testing, so without any unexpected problems, we’re looking at up to a year delay.
To build new train stations, they are currently building 2 more on the main line, it’s taking 3-4 years to get the 2 up and running. The amount of regulation, red tape, and trying to find money for these projects is incredible.
There’s another line, that is used by Amtrak. Years ago, it was double-track. The bone heads ripped out one of the tracks because of the extra maintenance involved. Now the state wants to put the 2nd track back again so they can run commuter trains both ways. A laudable idea, but they are talking about the mid 2010’s before that is ready.
What did it take, 10 years to get the Prius to market? We have a finite amount of lithium ion for batteries. Local, local, local. That’s where we need to be thinking. And unfortunately, we’re already 30 years behind in our thinking.