It's Time To Position For The Endgame

Do you sense an approaching endgame?

Like there’s another heavy shoe to drop? Perhaps an entire closet’s worth?

Certainly there’s entirely too much confusion surrounding SARS-CoV-2 and how to deal with it.

Should people wear masks? Will schools re-open? Should they? Why isn’t Covid-19 being treated consistently across medical centers? Are there things we could and should be doing to minimize the impacts before people catch it?

I believe there are good common-sense answers, even if complicated, to these and many other related questions But common sense is in short supply these days, especially amongst our “leaders” in the US (who actually act like bad managers).

Our clueless politicians busy themselves either pandering to or hiding from the media cameras when it comes to Covid-19 response. Meanwhile, Big Pharma is doing everything it can to direct the action in ways that funnel any profits into its pockets – public health be damned.

It’s a certified shit show. No question about it.

But It Gets Worse

Beyond the pandemic, the central banks are busy ignoring Plutarch as they embark on the grandest social experiment in all of human history by floating billionaires’ yachts ever higher as more and more average folks drown beneath the rising waterline.

Displaying either a level of tone-deafness exceeding that of Marie Antionette, or a level of psychopathy matching that of Ted Bundy, the US Federal Reserve is – RIGHT NOW – engaged in the largest transfer of wealth in all of US history.

Between March-April 2020, the Fed added a staggering $282 billion to the bottom-line wealth of US billionaires:

But that wasn’t enough.

So the Fed kept printing. And buying, buying, and buying more and more financial assets held – of course – mainly by the already-wealthy.

By May 2020 the total added became $434 billion, making all the US billionaires more billionaire-y:

But even that wasn’t enough for the Fed. So it printed even more, increasing the total to $583 billion by June:

Yep, you guessed it. It didn’t stop there. By July, the grand total was up to $637 billion:

Considering that US GDP dropped by -32.9% (annual rate) and clocked in at an annual rate of $19,408 billion in the second quarter of 2020, the US Federal Reserve had granted an astonishing (truly!) 3.3% of the entire output of the entire country to US billionaires. For doing absolutely nothing.

Yes, people have many reasons to be angry and to protest these days. But they ought to be furious with the Federal Reserve and its lackeys in Congress who have utterly and completely failed to check these egregious, unfair, and socially destructive policies that grossly reward the elite at the expense of the bottom 99%.

Let’s do a little math here. Handing 3.3% of the value of the entire economic output of 160,000,000 working people to roughly 600 individuals is the equivalent of granting each one of those 600 billionaires the entire yearly output of 9,020 people.

It’s like the Fed decided that each billionaire deserved to have 9,020 people become their slaves for the year. How is that not psychopathic? How is that fair? What’s the plan here? Keep going until these 600 people own everything in the world?

And where’s the media on this? They happily parrot every statement the Fed makes, without asking even the slightest of critical questions. They are failing us badly, too.

Okay, so why should you care?

Because what the Federal Reserve is doing generates enormous systemic risks which could well destroy the economy and much of our future prosperity.

At heart, I am a conservative in the sense that I’d like to keep (i.e. “conserve”) what we’ve got, both ecologically and economically. I’d vastly prefer that we change our nation’s destructive path now on our own terms than being forced to on reality’s terms later on. As painful as the former may be, the latter will be much more so.

History is complete on the matter: one cannot print one’s way to prosperity. It’s been tried over and over again and my view is that if it could be done, we’d all be speaking Latin because the Roman Empire with it brilliant engineers would have figured it out millennia ago and would never have collapsed.

If the Romans couldn’t work it out, it simply can’t be done. Mathematically, it also doesn’t pencil out. Money is a social agreement, a contract. It’s not real wealth. Taking the attempt to the extreme, what would happen if everybody had a billion dollars and nobody had to work?

So printing currency only manages to delay and exacerbate the inevitable by building up the energy for its own destruction.

And the longer the delay, the worse the reckoning when it ultimately arrives.

Being Resilient

Given the fact that America is doing a supremely poor job of managing Covid-19 at the national level – mirrored by many other countries worldwide – it’s all but certain that ‘the economy’ (such as is was) is not coming back.

Tens of millions of jobs have vanished and are not coming back in time to save our over-indebted system.

The central banks’ efforts to prop everything up by jamming stocks, bonds and derivatives to higher and higher price levels are seriously misguided. Such efforts both add to social injustice – a friction that eventually bursts into flames – and badly distort the price discovery mechanism which then leads to faulty economic and financial decisions.

As Charles Hugh Smith writes:

If the "Market" Never Goes Down, The System Is Doomed

August 6, 2020

“Markets” that never go down aren’t markets, they’re signaling mechanisms of the Powers That Be. Markets are fundamentally clearing houses of information on price, demand, sentiment, expectations and so on–factual data on supply and demand, shipping costs, cost of credit, etc.–and reflections of trader and consumer emotions and psychology.

If markets are never allowed to go down, the information clearing house has been effectively shut down. Whatever information leaks out has been edited to fit the prevailing narrative, which in this moment is “central banks will never let markets go down ever again, so jump in and ride the guaranteed Bull to easy gains.”

The past 12 years offer ample evidence for this narrative: every dip draws a near-instantaneous monetary-policy response that reverse the dip and gooses markets higher.

That permanent monetary intervention distorts markets doesn’t matter to participants. Who cares if markets have become “markets,” simulacra of real markets that are now nothing but signaling mechanisms that all is well so buy, buy, buy? If gains are essentially guaranteed, who cares that markets are not longer information clearing houses?

Indeed. There’s no reason to care until the fatal spiral downward surprises us all.

(Source)


Yes, it’s all about narrative control. Which is why we cannot trust our health authorities, our monetary authorities, or our political authorities. Each are engaged in their own interlocking versions of narrative control that stretch further and further from the truth (and obvious common sense) with each passing day.

Charles’ words above remind of why we need to care: a fatal downward spiral awaits, one that will catch much of the world by surprise.

Which then brings us to resilience. More and more people are turning to self-reliance, in whole or part, as they correctly assess that the rising risks. Social decay, erosion of public services, loss of trust, and even failure points in the food system.

These risks threaten the very bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: food, shelter, water, and safety.

In the post-Covid-19 world, gun sales are up and urban apartment sales are down. There’s a cultural sea change occurring, not that you know it by the mainstream press. As with most important things, it’s ignored at first:

Here at Peak Prosperity, our wish for you is to be happy, joyous, healthy and to live in peace and safety. In a word: resilient.

To get there (and stay there) you’re going to have to try new things, skate to where the puck is going to be, and take some risks.

Myself? I moved to the country, bought cows, chicken and pigs, and have a garden. These things bring me joy and provide me with food security. I’ve had more than half of my net worth stored in gold and silver for a long time now, because I knew that someday the Endgame would arrive.

We’re there. The Fed’s recent actions are nothing more and nothing less than a final looting operation.

Same as every other time in history, the last official act is to loot the Treasury. But today, in the US, we don’t have a Treasury with anything of value left within it. It has no gold, neither does it have any silver. It has a negative net worth, with a Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately -$200 trillion.

So what’s left to loot?

The answer is both grubby and disturbing: the purchasing power of every dollar in circulation.

That’s all that’s left to loot. At least at scale. We’re not (yet) to the point of the government confiscating half my chickens, which I half-jokingly (and half not) expect may come to pass once everything falls apart.

Every bank account, every reserve dollar, and every dollar claim is going to be debased. There’s nothing to debate or even argue about because it’s all right out in the open:

Fed Weighs Abandoning Pre-Emptive Rate Moves to Curb Inflation

Aug. 2, 2020

The Federal Reserve is preparing to effectively abandon its strategy of pre-emptively lifting interest rates to head off higher inflation, a practice it has followed for more than three decades.

Instead, Fed officials would take a more relaxed view by allowing for periods in which inflation would run slightly above the central bank’s 2% target, to make up for past episodes in which inflation ran below the target.

“It would be a significant change in terms of how they are thinking about” the trade-off between employment and inflation, said Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs. “A lot of those things look very different now from the way they looked a few years ago,” he said.

(Source)


Translation: The Fed is going to let inflation rip. And the media’s favorite Fed apologists will do their best to convince us this is actually a noble and good act.

As I’ve explained extensively, inflation is merely government-enabled theft. It steals a tiny bit from everyone’s past efforts, saved as money, and transfers those bits mainly to itself and a few well-connected insiders.

Snip a penny’s worth of purchasing power from every dollar and you’ve nipped 1% off of tens of trillions of stored dollars. 1% of $1 trillion is $10 billion. So many tens of billions of dollars of purchasing power is being snipped and transferred.

It’s one of the oldest games in the book, and the Fed’s apologists and enablers help them keep the game covered up. But it’s not hard to understand if you take the time to look.

Your financial resilience depends on your understanding of inflation and how it works. My Crash Course chapter on Inflation is a good starting point – you can watch it here.

It's Time To Position For The Endgame

Between Covid-19 and the Fed’s crazy actions, there’s not a lot of hope of returning to normalcy any time soon.

A lot of people have already arrived at that conclusion. A growing number have already moved to homes outside of cities, where at least they have a degree more control over their destiny.

That’s a good thing, in my view. But it’s just a start.

If current trends continue, we’re actually looking at many years, possibly decades of very difficult times.

But how to prepare? What path will the system follow as it fails us?

In Part 2: Is High Inflation Now A Bigger Danger Than A Deflationary Crash?, we revisit the probabilities of what’s more likely to transpire next given the massive monetary and fiscal actions the authorities are proving themselves willing to take.

Is a crash still a realistic threat? Or will the purchasing power of our currency be sacrificed in the name of “doing whatever it takes!” to prevent the elites from ever having to suffer losses?

The future success of your preparations depend entirely on the answer to this question.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/its-time-to-position-for-the-endgame/

Hello and Good Morning! I found an interesting study this morning: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04460703
The Yale clinical trial is all about what narratives are the most effective in persuading people to take the Covd19 Vaccine. It’s worth a read.
On the resilience side, I have good news. When I attempted to buy a high end pressure canner, it’s not shipping till November. When I bought seeds for the second time this year, 90% were out of stock. When I thought I’d pick up a few more cases of Ball jars, none were left on the shelf. When I ordered a simple hand pump for the well, the local guy had installed 5 the week before, and 4 more the week mine was installed. (Yes, now I have fresh water from the aquifer by hand pumping. BTW, this does not solve the problem of bathing and washing, not unless you want to pump water for a long time.) When I ran into these limitations, I actually felt hopeful!
My take away is that Americans are preparing, they are building in resilience. I think we might be surprised by the number of folks that are preparing.

We are turning into a country of “doomsday preppers” and I say that is a good thing. At least that is the way it is here in fly over country.

Dear all,
I live in CA in the Bay Area. I would prefer to buy a land close by because I still need to work to support my young 4-year-old twin sons. I want to buy land fertile for farming/gardening with good resilient community believing in our peakprosperity ideology. Does anyone know where I shd be looking at pls? Or can you PM me what you see from where you are if you live close to the Bay Area pls?
I am open to moving to OR as well. Does anyone live there who can tell me more abt good resilient communities in OR pls?
Pls help, and thank you beforehand!
Sincerely,
Girlflower

Read a beginning of the trial link.
 
Wow, and you know there is some advertising “expert” doing this for every message out there.

I came to my initial awakening through the same pathway Chris did… trying to understand the nature of money and investments. Simply stated, Chris was one of the few who correctly predicted the GFC of 2008 in advance. He did this because he rejected everything we are told to believe about our financial system and he went about discovering for himself how it actually works and what the implications are. This truth seeking modus operandi has served the tribe well through the years, with an ever growing component of crowd-sourced dialogue in play.
The untethered, debt-based fiat currency that we currently use for money is a confidence game. In theory it could probably work as well as hard currency if the money creation mechanism was completely and transparently algorithmic, and if the cost of money, i.e. the interest rate were left to the market to decide, with banks being left to fail if they make loans that are too risky, or don’t charge an interest rate that reflects risk appropriately. This depiction is a fantasy world compared to reality.
Relative to this ideal, which would entail allowing the scarcity of money to float freely based on supply (willingness to loan) and demand (for loans) and would imply some degree of balance between periods of deflation and inflation… the true story of our money is told through one of the most data-rich charts of all time, thankfully updated by Doug Short on his website; https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/07/14/a-long-term-look-at-inflation
The data tells us that after about 1955, the level of control asserted over the system by our central bank became so pervasive that the market for money ceased to exist - we were now in a fully controlled regime - the scarcity integrity and related market behavior of our previously hard (i.e. Gold) money system, reflected in the fairly balanced periods of inflation vs deflation seen in the late 1800’s, was now lost completely.

We know that the suppression of Gold’s dollar price - the neutering of it’s canary-in-the-coal mine function through increasing levels of paper futures price manipulation as well as the effective funneling of investment demand into potentially unallocated vehicles like SLV and GLD, has played a role up until now in the deceit that the dollar has real value, but the depth of the deceit goes way beyond that. One can get a college degree in economics without ever learning that all of our money (other than that printed by central banks as QE - a new feature of the system since 2009) is loaned into existence - meaning that if demand for loans ended, our money system would collapse into a money destructive, deflationary heap. Who knew? (Chris did).
This brings me to my rant - and I have never seen any other commentator point this out: The idea that quantum computers can and will have some positive impact on the world of finance, trading, and portfolio management is yet another conceit brought to us by the same elitist masters of money whose job it is to make sure our confidence in their money is unshakable.
Quantum computing is real, and very exciting for those of us involved in chemistry and materials… in the next decade we expect that increasingly powerful quantum computers, tethered closely to powerful classical computers, will open the window to the design of chemicals, materials, and drugs based on first principles in a way that was imagined by Paul Dirac almost 100 years ago, but never thought possible due to the intensity of the math. As it turns out, chemical discovery will be approachable long before quantum computing is scaled and error-corrected to the point of being able to solve the factoring problem that underlies the breaking of encryption.
If you want a wonderful, easy to digest, and entertaining introduction to quantum physics and the exploitation we call quantum computing, I highly recommend watching this, the second in a series of lectures Scott Aaronson gave last year in Zurich, starting at about the 40-minute mark;
https://video.ethz.ch/speakers/bernays/2019/5564a353-d71b-46d4-bfc0-fa907de5de25.html
So what’s my point? The point is this, just to give on example;
https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/report/exploring-quantum-financial

Powerful quantum use cases
Quantum computing’s specific use cases for financial services can be classified into three main categories: targeting and prediction, trading optimization, and risk profiling.
We explore potential use cases in each of these categories, providing examples that apply to three main industries in financial services: banking, financial markets, and insurance.
As a corporation, IBM and others that are playing this game are not acting irrationally... there is always money to be made if you can sell your wares to those who wield the money funnels. But the whole thing is a silly game, especially in this case.. and I have already explained why above. As Scott Aaronson explains so well in the referenced video, all of physics actually runs (like application software) on this fairly simple form of probability math. The rules are fixed. The rules don't change. We can exploit quantum mechanics to model... well.. quantum mechanical systems because we are pretty far down the road of understanding the rule set. Chemistry is governed by quantum mechanics, and is hence predictable.
What about things relating to money? If there is one thing you can bet on, it's that the rules will change as the system gets deeper into trouble. The idea of central banks printing huge amounts of money and buying debt instruments was literally absurd prior to GFC. Later we saw some central banks printing money and buying stocks to hold on their balance sheets - say what? The idea that a quantum computer could give one some kind of incremental advantage in creating a model to predict future direction and or events, in the context of the shifting sands of central bank policy, is literally absurd. To the uninitiated, which is almost everyone in this case given the fairly small cross section of people that understand both money and quantum computing, the endeavor makes the realm of money and finance seem like something weighty and important. The effect is to further cover up the nature of what it really is; The ultimate playground of the elitist, grifter ruling class.
     

Jim, you wrote:

What about things relating to money? If there is one thing you can bet on, it's that the rules will change as the system gets deeper into trouble.
What are your thoughts on whether quantum computing could be used for short term gain given the relatively stable rule set over very short time frames of seconds to days to a month or two? Of course, the rules could eventually change and cause a reversal of fortune, but that could take a while and a strategy of taking wealth out of the game and into real assets as it accumulates could mitigate that.

Subject and discussion made me listen to Jim Morrison (5:1) again after all those years…no one gets out of here alive

Hi;I am a realtor in Siskiyou County up at the far north border of CA & OR. We are the 4th largest geographic county in the state with a total population of 45,000. 78% of it is owned by the FED/State, timber companies and railroads. It is an agricultural based county. My husband and I decided in 2005 to build on 25 acres with 2 water streams (irrigation rights from 1870). We are totally off grid and have a high producing well, room to raise all farm animals and good privacy. You can’t see our house from our driveway entrance. My husband was the editor for a book by Sun Bear in the 1980’s called Black Dawn Bright Day which predicts what is happening now. If you want some help, I’d be happy to talk with you. You can find me in the phone book! :slight_smile:
Gigi Ryan
Mt Shasta, CA

Could QC give an advantage in financial calculations over a very short timeframe? I don’t think so.
Quantum computers are only going to be useful for certain classes of problems, including those that can be framed as optimization, like the classic travelling salesman problem. While many calculations in the realm of finance are in fact optimization problems in nature, one is still at the mercy of whatever underlying model you are employing. Any model for short term trading is going to use some fairly limited subset of everything knowable… maybe it for instance would analyze news headlines for critical terms and that would be one variable. While this could get exponentially hard as the model variables stack up… the lack of perfection with which any one variable could be presented or depicted still, in my opinion, precludes any real advantage.
The math for a lowest energy state (electron orbital) model of a molecule becomes exponentially hard to the power of the number of electrons interacting… but again, the rule set underlying these interactions is fixed - we don’t lack the model, or model accuracy - we lack the computational power to run it.
You have to ask yourself if economics is a science or not? Academic economists love to publish papers full of mathematical complexity, but there is a reason it’s called, “the dismal science”.
 

President Trump just announced executve orders that will:

  1. Eliminate the payroll tax

  2. Extend unemployment benefits by $400 per week, down from $600

  3. Extend the suspension of student loan repayments through the end of the year

  4. Extend protections against evictions

Trump also announced his administration is considering cuts to income taxes for lower and middle-income individuals, and to lower capital gains taxes.

The announced payroll tax cut and the proposed income/cap gains taxes are inflationary. Hold tight to your hard assets!

Yeah, it’s a real psyops being deployed against us.

Not sure if anyone here is following George Gammon, but he just did an erase board presentation on what the end result of all this Fed policy will be and it looks like the banks are cannabalizing themselves - at least the big banks are eating up the little banks, once the bait-ball is gone, they’ll have to turn on themselves.
Thought I would share the presentation, it really makes you wonder…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IHHiQIM2BM&t=5s
 

I get it Jim. It’s like numerical weather prediction. The model physics are perfect if you can get to a high enough model resolution that you don’t have to parameterize things like turbulence or cumulus clouds or the transfer of heat and moisture to and from the ground. If your computer is powerful enough, you can solve this problem - even with the total computing power required scaling to the inverse of the 4th power of the grid spacing. The problem is that you can’t know the initial conditions of the model to anywhere near that level of detail. How can we measure the temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc. on a 1 km grid much less a 100 meter or 10 meter grid? That will limit predictability of smaller things like thunderstorms to perhaps a day or two and larger scale weather features to a week or two. At the smaller scales, even the unpredictable things people do will impact state of the model.
People are using machine learning to get the last extra bit of value out of short term weather prediction. But at some point, possibly very soon, it will run up against the wall of not having enough information to feed to your model.

East Bay, Orinda, CA. Very tight and educated community of families. Neighbors still deliver cookies to new neighbors when they move in and dinners if someone is ill. Pop. Approx. 19,000. Not too accessible. Lots of open space, trees and hills. Homes have yards and gardens for growing. Good luck.

Gammon is very good at explaining complex ideas in a straightforward, clear manner.

Seems to me a low population density rural farming area with a good water source, well away from any of the humongous population centers would be ideal for prepping.
Remember, if you move after TSHTF, then you will essentially be an outsider, where you move.
Chris mentioned cows, chickens and pigs.
Here’s something to consider. The Great Apes are essentially herbivores. Humans are a member of that tribe. We have demonstrated that we can exist, in a state of compromised health, while consuming a highly processed, omnivore diet. Sure, this practice has allowed us to populate portions of the planet where plant food sources are inadequate, but at a high price, both in terms of our health and the health of the planet.
If you are planning to prep on a budget, consider prepping for a vegetarian or vegan lifestyle. This approach seriously reduces the acreage and capital investment required to sustain yourself. It’ll substantially improve your health and reduce your carbon footprint as well.
Chris describes us as the people who are willing to challenge our assumptions and I agree with him on most subjects. However, ask yourself this. Does the Western Diet include items people crave? Is it possibly an addiction? If that is true, it’s a formidable barrier, even for us.
Just “food” for thought.
 

what if one or more countries decided to make their currencies hard money backed. would this mean others would have to follow to maintain a competitive advantage or would greshams law apply where bad money (fiat) drives out good money (gold or bitcoin backed)
great article Chris

QC - to my knowledge - is just a shear computational power – exceeding the current CPU-s by an order of magnitude or more. What Financial Calculations do you have in mind? Trading algorithms? HF trading ?
 
The winning scenario as of today (and QC will speed this up) is Machine Learning (ML) in self teaching via AI the trading patterns and taking advantage of that. Some HF-s already successfully implement that strategy ( https://www.ft.com/content/338962c0-eeaf-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195 ).
 
It is also a known fact, that QC will be able to figure out the 32/64-bit keys to cryptocurrency wallets. That’s worrisome. Sounds like 128- or 256-bit , 512-bit? keys will soon be necessary to protect the wallets. Etc, etc.
QC is the next wave in H/W, but for trading and FinTech - this is ML in S/W. At least, that’s my take. The leaders in ML are not IBM-s, but Google and probably Chinese S/W companies like Tencent (example: https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-rctom/submission/machine-learning-and-tencent/ ).

That’s the clearest presentation on the difference between a free market and crony capitalism I’ve yet seen - and why increased regulation is not the answer.
They are points I’m continually advancing. I’ll be sharing it.
It’s particularly effective if watched twice, because the 3rd step informs the 1st step, but steps 1 and 2 are necessary preliminaries to grasping the 3rd step.