Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/jobs-decline-steadily-since-chatgpts-launch-china-has-energy-breakthrough/
Economy
AI adoption coincides with U.S. job openings decline since ChatGPT’s November 2022 launch, despite S&P 500 highs. Tech firms plan $420 billion AI infrastructure spending next year, up from $360 billion, on GPUs and data centers. Daily AI use at 46 percent overall, 68 percent in IT, 39 percent in legal. AI agents increase productivity by enabling one worker for multiple roles, though past shifts displaced labor before new jobs. Analyses suggest AI creates opportunities in data analysis and development, offsetting losses over time.
Meanwhile, U.S. household debt hit $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, up $197 billion, with mortgages $13.07 trillion, student loans $1.65 trillion. Credit card balances $1.23 trillion; delinquency 12.41 percent—highest since 2011. Student default 9.4 percent, affecting over 20 percent of debt for ages 50+. Delinquency overall 4.5 percent; bankruptcies 141,600—most since 2020. Observers note rising debt reflects confidence and job market, mitigating risks.
Adding to concerns, the repo market shows liquidity strain, with SOFR at 4.22 percent—22 basis points above Federal Reserve’s 4 percent discount window—for five days. Bank reserves declined to $2.8 trillion from $3.44 trillion since July due to Treasury bill issuance for deficits. Reverse repo facility at zero eliminates liquidity buffer. Situation resembles 2019-2020 stresses and could affect $2 trillion Treasury basis trade where hedge funds leverage Treasuries against short futures. Elevated costs may lead to bond sales, increasing yields. Federal Reserve monitors and has tools to manage without signaling crisis.
In crypto news, Bitcoin traded below $100,000 first since June, at $101,800 amid Crypto Fear & Greed Index extreme fear at 21. Liquidations exceeded $1.2 billion, mostly longs, after October’s worst performance in nearly a decade. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments lowered rate cut expectations, strengthening dollar and pressuring assets. ETF outflows over $1.8 billion in four days; perpetual futures open interest down 30 percent. Support at $96,000; Stablecoin Supply Ratio 13-14 indicates liquidity accumulation for rebound. Analysts predict $150,000 or higher by 2025 end despite volatility.
Speaking of Bitcoin, New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mandani announced his “Bitcoin Justice Act” imposing cryptocurrency tax on residents to fund initiatives. Critics question legality and burdens amid volatility.
In China, Shenzhen’s housing market saw price declines up to 70 percent in districts like Nanshan and Futian, returning values to 2009 levels. Homeowners face losses, with a 92-square-meter unit bought for 7.6 million yuan now below 3 million yuan, eroding middle-class savings. Older buildings with construction issues like sea-sand materials contribute to declines. Sellers risk losing school district access; holding involves mortgage payments amid transaction freeze. Agents report censored data and reduced commissions despite regulatory relaxations. Chinese officials cited policies to stabilize market and encourage buying toward recovery.
China imposed export controls on antimony, tungsten, silver effective 2026-2027 for resource protection and environment, despite lifting rare earth restrictions. Tungsten exports fell 13.75 percent year-to-date; China produces over 80 percent globally. Controls follow one-year rare earth exemption in U.S.-China talks but reflect supply chain tensions. Rare earth refining links to pollution, including thorium in groundwater near Bayan Obo mine. Authorities emphasize sustainable development, not targeting countries.
Geopolitics
The Trump administration considers military options against Venezuela, including oil field seizures and actions to remove President Nicolás Maduro. Justice Department examines narcoterrorism designations for Cartel de los Soles, permitting strikes without Congress. Recent airstrikes killed 67 in anti-drug operations off coast. Pentagon increased presence with 10,000 troops, Navy ships, aircraft carrier in Caribbean. Russia monitors; Maduro seeks Moscow assistance given oil reserves. Critics warn of instability and humanitarian challenges.
In Europe, Germany rejected Russia’s proposed non-aggression pact with NATO and EU states, requiring Moscow to end its Ukraine war first. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov presented the proposal in Belarus, stating Russia has no intent to attack NATO or EU members and calling for collective security including Russia. German officials supported Ukraine’s defense and called the proposal insufficient without Russian withdrawal. Lavrov rejected UN claims of Russian expansionism amid Western threats. Ukrainian officials called the proposal premature and dangerous, arguing it could embolden Russia without addressing the conflict.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian commander reported significant desertions, including one elite battalion forming a new brigade from over 3,000 soldiers absent without leave. Up to 20,000 service members desert every four weeks, contributing to 290,000 criminal cases since February 2022. Frontline units operate at half or one-third strength amid a 200,000-troop shortfall to counter Russian advances. At least 650,000 fighting-age men left Ukraine since 2022 after policy changes allowed 18-22-year-olds to cross borders. Public criticism of recruitment centers increased with videos showing forceful drafting tactics. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated reports of widespread desertions are exaggerated and military maintains strength through recruitment.
Lastly, Russia prepares full-scale nuclear tests in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s October 30 announcement to resume American testing. Defense Minister Andrey Belousov stated Moscow must ensure security by starting preparations immediately. President Vladimir Putin conditioned Russian restraint on others’ treaty adherence and directed analysis of U.S. plans. The 1963 Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty prohibits atmospheric and underwater tests; the unratified 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty would extend to underground. Russia last tested in 1990; both nations perform subcritical tests without chain reactions. U.S. officials expressed skepticism about Russian or Chinese testing claims due to lack of evidence.
Health
Oregon lawmaker reported Medicaid funds supported strip club outings for developmentally disabled clients in community integration. State Rep. Dwayne Yunker said Department of Human Services warned denying activities could risk federal funding for societal participation. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services clarified outings voluntary, not in plans, not billed to Medicaid, resolving after state discussions. Yunker plans broader Medicaid talks with federal officials on non-medical payments. Oregon defends program for integration, compliant with guidelines.
US Politics
U.S. reduces flights 10 percent at 40 major airports starting Friday due to air traffic controller shortages in longest government shutdown. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and FAA head Bryan Bedford cite 2,000-controller deficit, unpaid since October 1. Mitigation includes retiring controller bonuses, accelerated training; millions face delays/cancellations. Further restrictions possible on international flights, space launches. Airlines oppose, citing losses, urge alternatives.
Privacy & Surveillance
Department of Homeland Security proposed expanding biometrics to face scans, eye scans, vocal signatures, DNA for immigration and benefits. Mobile Fortify app enables local police to match facial/fingerprint data against databases. Electronic Frontier Foundation criticizes civil liberties erosion and Fourth Amendment risks. Comments open until January 2026. DHS states measures necessary for security within legal frameworks.
Energy
China achieved breakthrough in thorium nuclear technology with 2-megawatt molten salt reactor in Gobi Desert breeding uranium-233 from thorium-232. Operational since October 2023, uses liquid fluoride salts for fuel/coolant, enabling continuous refueling and efficiency over water-cooled reactors. Inner Mongolia thorium reserves power country over 1,000 years, aiding independence and carbon reduction. Design at atmospheric pressure underground for safety, no water, suits inland. 100-megawatt demonstration under construction; commercial by 2035. Experts urge safety assessments for environmental impacts.
Sources
Ukrainian Commander Warns of Massive Desertions and 200,000-Troop Shortfall
Kiev’s military may be 200,000 soldiers short of the minimum needed to fend off Russian advances.
Source | Submitted by Rodster
Shenzhen’s Real Estate Reckoning: From Boomtown Dreams to Middle-Class Despair
“We thought owning property in Shenzhen was security. Now it’s a cage.”
Source | Submitted by roosterrancher
Repo Chaos: SOFR Surges 22bps Above Fed Ceiling as $2T Basis Trade Teeters
A total meltdown in repo markets. SOFR spreads are soaring as the Fed loses total control.
Source | Submitted by rhollenb
Germany Rejects Russia’s Non-Aggression Pact Offer to NATO and EU
We are ready to enshrine this position in future security guarantees for this part of Eurasia.
AI’s K-Shaped Divide: Jobs Plunge as Stocks Soar
Ever since, job openings have plummeted while the S&P 500 soared to new highs.
Bitcoin Crashes Below $100K: Extreme Fear and Looming Sell-Off
Bitcoin has broken below $100k for the first time since June
Oregon Lawmaker Exposes Medicaid-Funded Strip Club Trips for Disabled Clients
“the state was using tax dollars to bring developmentally disabled clients to a strip club this past summer.”
Source | Submitted by Rodster
Trump Eyes Venezuela Military Options: Oil Seizures and Maduro Ouster on the Table
Though Donald Trump campaigned on pledges to end America’s endless wars and regime change campaigns, the White House has now assembled a list of potential military attacks on Venezuela
Source | Submitted by Shplad
China’s Thorium Breakthrough: Breeding Uranium for Endless Nuclear Energy Independence
China reaches energy independence milestone by ‘breeding’ uranium from thorium
Source | Submitted by Shplad
US Equips Local Police with ICE-Style Face-Scanning App Amid Biometrics Expansion
“Putting a powerful surveillance tool like this in the hands of state and local law enforcement officials around the country will only further erode peoples’ Fourth Amendment rights, for citizens and non-citizens alike.”
Source | Submitted by Shplad
China’s Export Whack-a-Mole: New Controls on Antimony, Tungsten, and Silver Despite Rare Earth Truce
while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.
US Cuts Flights 10% at 40 Airports as Shutdown Fuels Controller Crisis
Air traffic at 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% starting Friday as travelers continue to face flight disruptions due to a spike in air traffic controller absences during what is now the longest government shutdown on record.
US Household Debt Reaches Record $18.6 Trillion as Student Loan Defaults Surge
US Household Debt Hits Record $18.6 Trillion As Student Loan Defaults Explode
Russia Follows Trump’s Lead, Prepares for Full-Scale Nuclear Tests
“Moscow must respond to Washington’s steps to ensure the security of Russia. It is expedient to start preparing for full-scale nuclear tests immediately,”
Mayor-Elect Mandani’s “Bitcoin Justice Act”: Mandatory Crypto Tax Hits Every New Yorker
“Bitcoin Justice Act,” Imposing Mandatory Bitcoin Tax on All New Yorkers
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Kyiv Post, The Kyiv Independent, The New York Times, China Daily, Reuters, Bloomberg, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM), The Wall Street Journal, New York Taxpayers Association, OregonLive, The Intercept, Department of Homeland Security, Airlines for America, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
