Cobalt in EV’s and other ecological impacts of mining other minerals are real concerns bout the energy transition.
First - I’m not a fan of EV’s. I think the best EV is a tram or Metro. I’m into New Urbanism and Ecocities based on maybe 4 story eco-apartments and a walkable town square within 5 minutes of your front door. Less traffic, less stress, less loneliness, everyone living on 10% the land, and more community, more walking, more eyes-on everyone near the town square which also means more safety for women and children, and more walkability is more social justice for the poor. http://youtu.be/pErk61t1N70
In other words, while I want to be objective about the amount of minerals for the energy transition and EV’s - I really hate being dependent on a car - and really hate traffic jams - and really hate what suburbia has done to our sense of civil life and public engagement. Suburbia has no ‘there’ there for community to form - and that’s probably the most offensive thing about it for me.
Second - the big players are starting to share their awareness of these issues - but it is up to us activists to hold them to account. Even the IEA spreads awareness of these issues. See their paragraph on mining here.
Third - the EV market is moving away from expensive NMC to cheaper, safer LFP batteries that don’t use Cobalt. It’s about 30% of the EV market already. Indeed - BYD’s “Seagull” (aka Dolphin Mini in Australia) has a sodium battery that doesn’t even need lithium - let alone any other rare earths or critical minerals. Are we going to run out of sea-salt or agri-waste (for the hard carbon cathode) or aluminium which is 1200 times more abundant than copper?
Fourth - as we mine more metals for the energy transition, we’ll start to replace fossil fuels and mine vastly less material overall. Fossil fuels are at 14 billion tonnes per year. Even at the height of the energy transition we will not mine a fraction of that for metals. Unlike fossil fuels - all these minerals can be recycled!
International Energy Agency: Mineral requirements for clean energy transitions – The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions – Analysis - IEA
Data Scientist Hannah Ritchie: The world has enough minerals for low-carbon electricity
Indeed - once an EV battery reaches end of life and is munched up into “black mass” we are starting to see geopolitics emerge with this waste material valued as highly as oil. Nations are starting to realise that as their consumers buy cheap Chinese imports - those cars are a future supply of these rarer minerals. It’s been nicknamed “above ground mining” - and I think we will soon see EU laws preventing people sending EV waste back overseas!
Finally - you never answered my question. You’re diverting. Who actually said we do not have enough minerals - and why do they disagree with the peer-review? See - I think I know who you’re quoting and why they say what they say. But their paper is one of the biggest gish-gallops of smart-sounding but ultimately misleading data dumped on the unsuspecting and gullible who lap up this confirmation-bias paper - and rush to the conclusions to salivate over a peak-oil manifesto for society. Except - as my high school maths teacher used to say - “Show your working!” This guy’s assumptions are WAY off - in fact - sound down right ignorant of what the peer-reviewed ISP’s even claim. If he’s that ignorant of Integrated Systems Plans - why would we listen to him in the first place?