This episode discusses the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election held on November 5th, 2024, where Trump emerged as the winner. Chris and Paul analyze the market reactions, noting significant movements in the stock market and interest rates. They explore the implications of Trump’s victory on various sectors, including real estate and banking, and discuss the potential for increased inflation and economic growth. The conversation also touches on the importance of free speech, the role of Elon Musk in preserving it, and the need for accountability and transparency in government.
Market Reactions to Election Results
The episode highlights the immediate and significant reactions of the stock market to Trump’s election victory. The S&P 500 rose by 138 points, and major banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw substantial gains. The discussion suggests that the market anticipated a Trump win, leading to these movements. However, there is confusion about the consistency of these reactions, with some sectors like healthcare not experiencing the same level of enthusiasm.
Interest Rates and Real Estate
Interest rates spiked following the election, with the 10-year yield showing a significant increase. This rise in interest rates is expected to pressure companies with high leverage and impact the real estate market negatively. The conversation suggests that while higher yields could indicate economic growth, they also raise concerns about inflation.
Key Data
The S&P 500 increased by 138 points following the election.
JP Morgan’s stock rose by 10.3%, Wells Fargo by 11.6%, and Citibank by 8.5%.
The 10-year yield jumped from 4.266 to 4.478.
The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities has risen fivefold over the past two years.
Predictions
Interest rates are expected to continue rising, potentially leading to higher inflation.
The market’s path of least resistance is higher unless unexpected events occur.
There may be good buying opportunities in the near future, particularly in gold.
Implications
Higher interest rates could make housing less affordable unless wages increase.
The commercial real estate sector may face a crisis due to rising delinquency rates and interest rates.
Trump’s policies may lead to economic growth but also higher inflation.
Recommendations
Individuals should continue to prepare for potential economic uncertainties by having emergency supplies and plans in place.
Consider investing in undervalued sectors that may benefit from economic growth and deregulation.
Stay informed and hold leaders accountable to ensure transparency and truth in governance.
This is nobrainer and not Trump’s fault… afterall past 5 years taxmoney was spent like candy. In next 2 years or perhaps even in first famous 100 days will become clear how Trump administration can have effect.
Biggest thing they can do is reduce easy government money from companies,corporations as that always increases inflation. This also saves budget that can pay some loans away to cut interest expenses.
Higher inflation is unfortunately here, lazy 2000s days are over but it has flipside of possibly having more jobs with good policies, much stronger basis for medium term.
How is this theory:
Markets by one article viewpoint already around february started to shift to back Trump. Ie markets, wealth is who decide who they back in elections. Not that this is 100% sure mechanism, as people could still vote communism/socialism if they like shorttermist view(many did, 68mn votes for Harris still).
One question these spikes answered: saw some place put out theory markets had already priced election result in october… but these spikes proove they hadnt… policies and views of candidates were so far apart nobody could prepare for both at the same time.
Classic move of CEO abandoning ship when times get tough. One could argue 2020-2024 have been super easy mode for pharma execs.
Tidbit missing is did board make him resign or did he do it on his own, as we all know modern CEO is mere high paid employee (Steve Jobs got fired from his own company as many others were too)
Tech industry has been laying off since 2022 after free cash and covid boost but it was more normal cycle of trends, no government help that much.
From old viagra movie/doc hybrid I got vibe also pharma does what every company do when it is booming for them: hire bunch of people, pay extravagant bonuses for everyone. Once boom times are over, all of these must be cut and return to “fundamentals” like allegedly Elon Musk did with Twitter/X. All of that 1980s style “glamour” fluff just distracts from base work and thus undermines corporation daily life. Engineers, lawers etc cant focus on difficult tasks when every day is some social media celebration event at office.
And we should remember to imbibe the ‘rationale’ for the Fed cutting rates with stocks screaming to new record highs…it’s, uh, to help people keep jobs, or something.
Aint tariffs still better job creation tool… never have stock prices and finance money in corporations had any connections to jobs… often to contrary, easy money makes layoffs easier to trigger.
I hate this job rhetoric, it is propaganda that unfortunately even scientific minded people believe and thus bad policies and lobbying comes possible.
They dont ask “real economists” who know exactly how different factors have effect on jobs.
What I love about this new state of affairs is the guy making the changes is very intimately informed about how the world (and the law) actually work.
A more amateur politician would probably sue the State Of California to relent on its childhood vaccine schedule.
Bobby’s the kind of guy who will just quietly remove the liability immunity from drug makers and let the incentives thus created drive everyone’s behavior down the line.
I hope the same can somehow happen with the (illegal) immigration the US has had. You aren’t getting the state sponsored migrants out without force since they have a purpose all their own but the “economic migrants” came in response to incentives and many would be willing to leave for the same reason.
As long as money is just something the US can print, you may as well print another couple billion and offer chartered flights home plus $1000 to anyone who takes one. After taking away the health/housing and “walking around money” of course.
No need for door-to-door raids with assault rifles for most of them IMO.
All the while Trump can yell things that drive the Woke crowd to distraction while capable hands in the administration realign everything.
Obamacare and Medicare were ending already in summer… I wonder how much that has effect … those were failed programs and need update and restructuring anyway. Insurance companies and pharma could charge nice profits by them.
This distraction is actually smart… so mobs and rallies are not organized to oppose deportations… that is also possibility and would make those actions harder. People can be dumb and support murderer criminal not to be deported by human rights and such excuses. My original theory of first Trump term was he distracted enough so his staff could do work they were hired to do (for his companies; political term had so many ups and downs that didnt seem to work out as planned). Unfortunately past 4 years it was trendy for many advisors and such to come out and mock Trump term in public despite they were working there.
Just dont ask their advice, of course they would sign up for this and all overtime pay “required” and added budgets. These people wanna swat and shoot something. It would backfire really badly in optics too.
I also think MGPAA (Make Government Printing “Affordable” Again) is at play too. Jerome got a memo that said, “Hey Jerome, the interest on the debt is killing us dude, jeez man, come on, help us out”.
I think Trump should appoint Catherine Austin Fitts as federal Government Auditor (or what ever it’s called in the US). And while she’s at it, throw in an audit of Fort Knox. Would love to know how much physical gold is in there (if any!!).
I just watched Monkey Werx podcast. He mentioned nuclear response team today landed in several places in the US. They apparently respond to meltdowns and also transport nuke material, amongst other things. He said that landing in El Paso was odd. He showed another flight of the nuke response team that he said landed in Knoxville TN but the flight path on the map showed it landing in Nashville TN. This may be nothing, but I thought I’d share. I’m still skeptical of a peaceful transfer of power.
I’m trying not to enjoy so very much the myriad of snot dripping, scream filled, crying, f-bombing, lip ringed, live head shaving Einsteins on X that billions of people watching can’t possibly see, acting like fidiots (with an “f”), but it’s just too hard for me not to. Does that make me a bad person?
So the totally rigged markets just mostly rigged or experienced a temporary disturbance allowing some predictive power Tuesday, decoupling US from other world markets, and a bit of variety in sector heat map with banking and impending commercial real estate crash a disconnect. Hmmm. (unsupported speculation) Re banking stocks, were huge jumps across the board including smaller regional banks - if those were weak then large banks anticipating gov’t financed purchase of failing regionals.
I feel a sense of relief and that we’ve go a reprieve, being spared from further authoritarian crackdown on free speech. Sadly, there won’t be any reflection nor reconciliation from DNC/globalists. Hoping it buys me some cover if somebody looked me up, I’m a registered Democrat in west coast blue state - also allows me to vote in primaries, and use the “non-partisan” voter guide recommendations figure how not to vote.
I’ve received a bunch of texts in last several weeks. Here are some interesting Election/post election texts:
Tuesday 2:37 PM PDT, “Barrack Obama” asked for more $ for Dem turnout. That same phone number on Wednesday 12:41 PM PDT asked me to sign Chuck Schumer’s “No Kings Act” and strip Trump of his immunity.
Thursday (today) at 9:37 Text message: “Yesterday, we grieved with loved ones. Tonight, join thousands of others on a call with in-person actions this weekend. Post-Election Mass Call · Election Response Center” (wonder what these in-person actions are?
Today 1:57 PM (916)864-9829 “Hey, Gavin Newsom here. I know many of you are sad and even angry about this week’s election results. I get it. I am too. I also know many are wondering what happens next. If that’s you, I’d invite you to join me on a Zoom call tomorrow night about what we’re doing in California to prepare for a second Trump term and where we go from here.” (Nothing good comes out of California and Gavin Newsom. Wonder what sort of poison they’re planning"
Ps 21:11 (NIV) Though they plot evil against you and devise wicked schemes, they cannot succeed.
Now that Trump is set to return for a 2nd term, I wonder also if the long ago voiced “consipracy theory” that “Jonjon” (JFK jr) will turn out to still be alive in hiding since his death in 1999 and waiting to surface alongside RFK jr.
Seems absolutely preposterous to write it, but who knows, so many things these days feel preposterous. Just imagine if it would happen…sheeeesh…now that would silence a lot of noise JFK Jr and Trump were friends after all.
And what about the mysterious lady often seen near Vincent Fusca…? Her smile, teeth, ear and nose look a lot like Caroline’s (JFK Jr’s wife who died at the same time as JFK Jr). Even more preposterous. What a strange world we live in. Obviously it’s all claimed to be conspiracy theory, but it’s entertaining nevertheless.
Ah he said physical decentralization (of government posts)… that is very welcome and helps deter lobbying… much harder when 2min taxi trip cannot get you to other building.
JFK Jr and Trump were friends after all.
