Hey Adam, I answered your Q2 report but took it down because I never want to appear as I’m chasing anyone around the board. However, I didn’t think it was a valid report at all, just a throw away report frankly.
I don’t think this quarters GDP reports suggest anything after we went into a forced shut down for God and Country, unless you think the GDP and market is going up, up, up. We are at forced lows, not to far from the all time highs with trillions just waiting to pounce and rise all boats. Certainly I don’t look at the GDP numbers as decision making data stuff. I don’t think you do either.
I am rooting for everything to work out and that changes happen because we collectively got scarred enough to live within our means. I am, you are and many good Folks live within our means so it can happen. I must think this way but, as Chris says and I try to do: I change if the data changes. Being at the lows of a forced shut down for me is time to start taking positions especially in oil now that the world’s economy is loosening up. I just like the must have commodity that everyone must use to get to work, play and for any essential travel.
We are not that far removed from happy days with low unemployment or even going to our favorite restaurant. We haven’t forgotten that we like to do a lot of different things. So, we stay closer to home and have just as much fun than if we were in Disneyland. This virus hasn’t scared me away from flying, I never liked flying anyways. If I had to get somewhere like Florida, Texas, California to see family then I would take a plane. I would prefer a bullet train but none exist. My point is, like everything we will all get desensitized again because I don’t think this virus was so devastating or couldn’t be controlled by just following the guidance set out for us. People are going to fly, and I think more than some predict in the not to distant future. Anyways, up 44.3% (just showing my gift in oil to make my point stronger, I’ll NOT use it again) on my oil shares and I am absolutely positive it’s still time to “notch that up a bit”. LOL…I would not make any decision based on this GDP number. GDP will just go up from here. Maybe we’ll be at 2% GDP by 4th quarter end, it is an election year after all.
One of my research tools is to take a drive. I did and traffic is way up. I drove by small and big businesses and the parking lots have cars in them, not just a few either. That tells me for instance at Home Depot that people are sitting around most of the winter, and need to fix things up around the house. Maybe paint a room or two. Good Folks out there have their craves so will go to Coney Island, white castle, and the husband wants to take his Lady out to their favorite restaurant. So long as they wear a mask and has spacing then we go. My choice is Italian. I’m just thinking that people will still do what they always did. What is really great is I believe people are saving or paying off their debt. Those that have a job are. Pent up demand. Some are very hungry and we must take care of them. But, it won’t take forever to get these Folks jobs. When Trump came into office he performed a miracle on the psyche of the American people. He did that. He can do it again with the Trillions newly printed and the cash left over from the economic crisis’s, sure can, why not. This was all done without the out of control INFLATION that everyone predicted. I just think the jury’s out still and that we can right the ships and then plan to remove the cash when we can. I don’t know, I just don’t want to blow everything up, I want a slow but steady change in peoples consumption. I certainly would rather be taxed less and keep the Government out of my home entirely. They are the problem, Our States run a balanced budget, we have to run a balanced budget, so why in hell does our government spend beyond anything reasonable. 3/4 of a trillion on defense!, that’s a great place to cut. My God, we spend more on our military than everyone else combined. Just cut a third of that and earmark it for debt. In 10 years that’s what, 2.5 Trillion. Sounds good to me. Peace
I hope you’re generous and post your notes/conclusions! I’m not a farmer, but am certainly interested in what conclusions you came to. A peripheral but perhaps interesting read if you haven’t already seen it, is Orlov’s “5 Stages of Collapse” - not so much about agriculture as about the culture as a whole, which will have its effect on farming as on everything else.
Vshelford
We did not get far after the introductions but here are main conclusions regarding how Cuba responded to loss of fossil fuel and food imports (one zoom attendee had visited Cuba 4 times after the collapse as part of his sustainable ag teaching and had much to say):
- a surprisingly high proportion of food for city dwellers was grown in the city, by taking over vacant lots, using pots in balconies, and rooftops
- The most important factor was soil health. A focus on increasing humus and worm factories to process waste was key, partly because artificial fossil fuel fertilizers were absent. It took about 3 years to get soil health up.
- Farmers became the highest paid members of the society. Churches and other groups grew food and provided to people who were struggling.
My take on things is that we need to 1. identify unused spaces (vacant lots/balconies etc) where sunlight exists and water can be provided. 2. work hard at recycling all kinds of organic waste into building up the soil as a crucial first step.
Barbara is hosting another zoom next Sunday evening I see