Market Update: A Bearish Engulfing

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Despite market prices remaining at maximum stupid heights, we’ve seen some notable weakness, volatility and a rare ‘bearish engulfing’ this week.

All of these are advance indicators we would expect to see preceding a fall in prices.

So, what exactly is a ‘bearish engulfing’?

It’s a term used by technical analysts to describe a relatively infrequent event when a rise in price is immediately eclipsed by a larger drop in price, suggesting that sellers now outnumber buyers:

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<img class=“aligncenter” src=“https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/MW-IG421_NDX_en_20200513115904_NS.png” alt="“bearish engulfing chart” width=“1223” height=“843” />

(source: MarketWatch.com)

In addition to the above, the markets have struggled to move higher all week. This action has all the hallmarks of a rally petering out at its terminus.

Which is occurring at an ominous milestone: for whatever reason, history appears to love symmetry.

The table below compares the initial drops seen during major market corrections to the initial rallies that followed. In both 1929 and 2000, the drop/rally percentages were identical. Each was then followed by a vastly larger second decline.

And today, we’re now at that exact same milestone for the S&P 500:

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Have we been in a classic bear market rally since mid-March? One that will be soon followed by second and much larger decline?

In an attempt to prepare for what’s likely ahead, we’ve once again asked the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor, for their latest perspective.

In the below video, we discuss the recent bearish market signals, the Fed’s latest guidance and its implications, and address reader questions on investing in real estate and opportunities for holding tangible assets within retirement accounts:

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Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike and John can do so by clicking here.

And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations.

We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.

But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE CONSULTATION

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/market-update-a-bearish-engulfing/

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Stock market reports are great for a very limited few. For a website that’s spent a decade on the economy and has a tagline of a world worth inheriting, the analysis of the impact for the 90% of the rest of us is conspicuously missing. It’s even possible this whole debacle has positive outcomes for the other two Es - energy and the environment. I know the coronoavirus is huge and Chris is a pathologist inside his best groove. I know you have existing relationships with New Harbor and it’s easy to tap them. And I know it’s just you two guys. And you do an unqualified amazing job. But this issue is so huge that ignoring it makes me wonder what the actual purpose of this site is, especially after reading both the books years ago and following the site for so many years. Is it wealth counseling for the already wealthy? If so, I’ll walk away knowing the site is doing the job it sets out to do but just doesn’t apply to me or anyone I know. That’s ok. Otherwise, why the continued silence on the bigger picture? Is it just too huge? Recognizing both the huge threat of coronavirus (for a few far worse than the vast majority) and acknowledging the unfathomable impact of the response to the lives of nearly everyone (except the 1%) in terms of economic devastation and loss of civil liberties that will go on for decades is not a zero sum game. We can do both. We can have these discussions based on fact and science and do it apolitically. Indeed, we have to, whether we talk about it now or not. Thank you.

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Good moderation as usual! Well done.
I must confess I do completely disagree with the conclusion, though.
I never overthink investing (as data-driven folk are wont to do, heh). The 80/20 rule applies here, and the 80% is the Fed. Period. Bluntly, If the Fed continues to buy stocks, they will go up. No matter what the economy does.
In the US we are obsessed with the stock market. Makes sense: the beautiful people’s retirement is in it. The government will never allow it to fail. We have seen this for a decade now where if the S&P 500 falls there is more easing, or maybe even negative interest rates or the Fed buying stocks. I hope I’m wrong, but what if I am? Just keep some stop losses and hold blue-chip dividend paying stocks.

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NDX 2020-05-12 bearish engulfing 37.6% reversal (strength rating 0.42 out of 1.00)
That’s just a medium-strength bearish reversal on 5/12. Not all that exciting.
However, turns out, the very next day (2020-05-13) saw a swing high, which was a 62.6% bearish reversal (strength rating 1.00 out of 1.00)
The print on the following day (5/13) looks really unpleasant. That’s the strongest-rated swing high you can see.
Might indeed be a near-term top. FWIW.

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urban planner –
I agree with you that more exploration of covid-19’s impact on Main Street would be appreciated here on the site.
But let me offer a little context as well as an invitation:
In the just past week, Chris and I have recorded/published interviews with Sergey Young (technology’s promise & risks), Neil Howe (the 4th turning), Grant Williams/Mike Maloney & Charles Hugh Smith (the Fed), five daily coronavirus update videos, and the video above with New Harbor (markets).
Then there are the irons in the fire…more interviews on energy, the adjustment reaction, food resilience, etc…plus our regular writing and daily videos.
My point here is to say we are still running at the redline producing as much relevant content as we can, every day, 100+ days after publishing our first alert on the coronavirus. And yet there are many issues that deserve more attention than we have the bandwidth to cover.
That said, I wouldn’t say we’re “silent” on the implications for Main Street. Chris’ daily videos updates are geared to focus on the health and economic ramifications that the everyday household needs to be preparing for. And I recorded an interview with Chris, John Rubino and Charles Hugh Smith last month on the topic of “What comes next?”, which was entirely focused on how life in general will change for the masses.
So, if you’d like to see more exploration of a topic on this site than we two humans have bandwidth to offer, Chris and I would welcome it gladly if you’d take up your own challenge and start a Forum discussion on it. That’s exactly what the Forums are there for.
In short: you have a great idea and we’re encouraging you to run with it!

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I appreciate the personal reply just as much as I appreciated it being you who called me back personally when I first joined. Very much. I think about that short but pleasant conversation every time I watch one of your videos. I am a huge fan of your work here at PP and I share it with everyone who will listen.
I’ll think about the forum. I think that’s a great idea. And I really do appreciate all that you do. It’s huge. As is my garden, my pantry, and everything else I’ve done as actionable items I learned here over the years.
I’ve been trying to outline a seminar course on community resiliency for my professional world. I do a lot of educational speaking for my profession, though mostly because I like learning and sharing and as a sole proprietor I’m the only one I have to answer to when I want to jump in and really chew on something rather than go make $. Big chunks of the subject outline for my proposed resiliency series come from Prosper! concepts, Charles Hugh Smith’s work and others I was first introduced to here; modified to talk to rural and urban professional planners and land use attorneys. I can see a benefit to both a forum and the seminar series from the informed and amazing membership here.

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Hello Adam, I’m with MKI. With the Fed and other central banks funneling trillions of dollars into the stock market, it could go higher, it is going higher. That’s what it’s done for a long time now.
From time to time, I check out Greg Mannarino, who’s view points would resonate with the PP crowd. He predicted with the Fed pumping massive liquidity into the market, it could go to 40,000!!!
As I’ve seen in my own evolution, Chris’ and Mannarino’s, he has gotten very very cynical over time.
Here’s his 5/14/20 market wrap up, if anyone would like to hear what he’s doing and recommending to his subscribers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDZNNan5amU
These market updates are informative and important. Everyone has different types of wealth to tap into. Most of us will have to exploit our non-financial wealth(!) and PP has helped many of us Mainstreeters in that task!
There is a Zoom meeting on gardening coming up this Sunday at 7 pm EST, can’t remember who sent the invite, maybe Mots?
 

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S&P is over 2800 hundred on the 12th year anniversary (+ or -) from a kick the can entry of 667 S&P. That’s a whole lot of cash made during what sounded like an impossible position to be in back in 2008-09. Just like it seems now. Back then we thought it would take forever to get back to square and it didn’t happen as many experts planned. All were dumfounded as we would have made a boat load of cash had we bought at the low, like today, and not looked at our investments for 12 can kicking years. We didn’t muddle through at all, we just made a lot of cash for our retirement years and that’s just the truth. The market is broken for sure but, still, a terrific amount of money can be made with the help of many trillions of dollars put into the system to make sure we can do just that. It isn’t the end of the world, that’s for sure. Pelosi’s Bill has a lot of trillions in it for the good middle class Folks out there and for front line workers, and, and, and…We still have a lot of cash from 08-09 sloshing about, many trillions now and it hasn’t even begun to circulate. My God we are just opening up and we look at a restaurant half full as a failure when I look at it as half full and people are working where they didn’t before. I’m also a little more desensitized from this Virus. Yes, people are getting sick and yes people are dying, some probably were dying anyways. This is not meant as a cold statement. My point is and it is proven by the data too, many more people are alive, or get sick and recover quickly, that to factor for the Minority only and not the absolute Majority and shut everything down. ruin the economy where many more trillions of dollars will need to be printed instead of made productively makes no sense either. My God, we are way to pessimistic considering what we do know IMHO. A very nice Podcast Adam, I like this company that you guys gave to this site, your site. I believe they are of high character all
None of us have a clue what the market will do but, with the Fed picking the winners and we just stay the course then we win. Why? No one on this site can predict based on any norm what the market will do. This has been proven for years now. I am way more positive in the Fed, more optimistic because none of us know what they will do, know how far they will go. I do know this, the Fed will NEVER allow their hard work of the last 12 years be destroyed. If they planned on this then they never would have made the decision to do what they did. That of course was to print thin air cash in stacks of thousands for as far as the moon and back and then some. They have promised to do everything they can and proved that by the purchases of Commercial paper… I do agree with most everything in this Podcast but, I have learned I can know everything and it doesn’t matter because I can’t write the checks that the Fed and the Congress can. I will again stay the course but, that doesn’t mean I won’t get out of the market for a time. I am contemplating this now as I do agree a correction is in the making. But unlike years past the Fed has all the data using super computers and they have recent history 08-09 to go to to deal with what worked back then. Finally, we shut down the worlds economy so as this opens up now the world has decided that some RISK is acceptable, and that those who get sick or even die will not be cause to shut the economy down again. They have guidance they feel good about and will make every effort to get the world economy running as well as possible and as healthy as possible but they are NOT going to shut down again is my belief unless this virus mutates into a Godzilla like form and we must shut down. Nope, we have quietly decided we go where we go now. Do we even have a choice? Nope, all bad choices remain. Maybe, just maybe we are very close to herd immunity, maybe. Maybe the treatments will be a very sound life line before a Vaccine or maybe a vaccine turns out to not be necessary because we are close to herd immunity. All these examples have a better chance of succeeding than guessing, and that’s exactly what we are doing when we try to read the data in a broken market. Data is only good if it’s truthful and if the market is truly broken then perhaps all the data is flawed and we end up seeing what our biases mandate that we do. Some like oil, some like silver. Who’s right and who’s wrong. Is the fact that I am up over 33% in oil proof that I’m right? Nope, I just guessed that as people go back to work, and we look out at where we will be in 6 months that that was an easy guess. More peeps working mean more oil consumed. Cars are the safest form of transportation so is a major plus for vacations close to home and staying away from people who may be sick and riding the bus, train, airplanes and subways. Not rocket science and the Fed doesn’t really have any control over oil, and at this point oil is being left to gather up steam and help the stock market slowly but steadily rise. If oil drops then I am more prone to get out of the market. If 50% of the economy comes back in the next 6 months then this will have a positive effect on the market because it’s 50% better than nothing. Good Luck Folks, we all have a plan until we get punched in the face. I expect I’ll be close enough to this to make a move to save whatever I can because I can always Sell or Buy when I feel in my gut it’s the right move. It doesn’t look very good out there but, it doesn’t mean the market can’t rip into a new Bull Market. A surprise vaccine would do that. All the experts, all the billionaires and all the Kings men have no clue what will happen next, how could they. All I know is that the Fed will and Congress will print so much money, all the money necessary to get things functioning and the rest is left for fate. The world will not end and we will be better off in the next year than we are now, that’s a certainty unless the Fauci’s in the world decide they have something else to spring on us that we aren’t a part of. Like, another virus… Peace

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We filmed the above video last night. This morning, the Atlanta Fed updated it’s GDPNow projections.
The earlier Q2 2020 GDP forecast was just updated from -34.9% to -42.8%:

So take all those dire warnings I provided in the video up another notch or two.

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Thank you Adam for updating on the economics and the other reporting. Your particular insights and viewpoints are very helpful.
Hladini, you mentioned a zoom meeting Sunday night at 7PM Eastern. Belka recommended the movie “The Wartime Farm” (which is free on youtube) as something to consider for the present situation and I also wanted to discuss the movie “The Power of Community: How Cuba survived peak oil” But another topic that Belka and I are interested in is establishing a peer-to-peer text digital communication service that can be used outside control of the censors. Belka and I are considering software defined radio dongles that can allow reception of high level discussions by objective scientists, without disruption by censors. Please join our meeting. I hope that Urban Planner can join, since he may be an expert in this area.
Anyway, please join:

Topic: 1. lessons from Britain's war time ag effort and Cuba's post oil agriculture (and possibly discussion of how to use digital amateur radio for post censorship communications) Time: May 17, 2020 07:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting https://us04web.zoom.us/j/75561502844?pwd=UEw0L2MwZFIzTVNqWlJnZjFFNFExdz09
Meeting ID: 755 6150 2844 Password: 006589
 
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I keep thinking of a video Chris did years ago where he showed a chart and circled the GDP dip in 2008-09 and said something along the lines of ‘that little wobble almost crashed the global economy’. Wasn’t that little wobble like a pebble next to the Gibraltar Straights of 2020?

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I will try to attend.

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Our initial topic:
What lessons for agriculture can we learn from collapses or stress in previous events such as WWII (Britain could no longer import 60% of its food and the farmers had to double production) and Cuba following removal of petroleum (collapse of Soviet oil imports and most of their food, which was previously imported). Interesting that urban agriculture became important in Cuba’s so maybe “urban planner” had some meaning there.

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Mots, Have seen the Power of Community but will try and watch the Wartime Farm before Sunday. Looking forward to hearing more about that communication device/technique.

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Ok

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1. Homework I expect each person to have reviewed at least one of these movies and to have opinions (write down the lessens/learning points that you got from the video to discuss with the group pertaining to gardening). Be prepared to tell the group these points. Since portions of humanity have faced this kind of collapse before, what do they teach us? We can also benefit from those who had to deal with the collapse of the Roman empire. So, come to the discussion with specific points for agriculture to share that you got from watching the movie(s). If time permits, Belko and I will later on briefly discuss amateur radio and communications. 2. Since (I understand) Urban Planning is developing seminar materials on this or a related topic I expect that he or others may document ideas and conclusions from others. I would like to see a summary of the conclusions, from our zoom discussion from a volunteer but if necessary will draft a summary myself.
Time: May 17, 2020 07:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting https://us04web.zoom.us/j/75561502844?pwd=UEw0L2MwZFIzTVNqWlJnZjFFNFExdz09
Meeting ID: 755 6150 2844 Password: 006589
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Was just reviewing the HEROES Act passed by the US House of Representatives yesterday. It proposes to tack another $3 trillion on top of the $2+ trillion CARES Act signed by the president in March.
And of course, that’s in addition to the $2.6 trillion in new liquidity the Fed has already shoved into the system.
It’s getting hard to keep up with all the $trillions being thrown around…
I’m not trying to be insensitive to the millions of people who are hurting as a result of the impact of covid-19, but I cringe at the self-congratulatory politicians who act like they’re our exceptional saviors by spending great gobs of money we can’t afford.
We have a MASSIVE debt problem that has been simultaneously sustained and exacerbated by deficit spending over many decades – and this was the situation pre-coronavirus. We could not afford our national spending pre-covid, and these $trillions in new programs just dig that hole deeper a lot faster.
The politicians don’t care. They lust for praise in the moment; the inevitable bill will be someone else’s problem after they’re out of office.
This is akin to a parent who has driven the family finances to the brink of bankruptcy buying lavish presents for everyone with the last remainders of the credit card limit before the card is maxed out. Sure, it might look like a generous act to an ignorant outsider, but should you really be “thankful” for such irresponsible management of your financial future?
Despite being the most expensive bill in US history, the HEROES Act could have been a lot higher. A proposal struck from earlier drafts of the bill included guaranteed coverage for all workers’ paychecks for up to $90,000/year.
Look, if we’re going to give out stimulus, I’m all for giving it to households vs the big banks/corporations. But this proposal is essentially Universal Basic Income of $90k a year. And hey, why stop there? Why not bump it up to $1 million/year for everyone?
I’m against UBI for a host of reasons, but the principal one is that it will collapse our insolvent economy a lot faster and a lot harder – unnecessarily increasing the pain for all parties.
When times become desperate, decision-making becomes desperate. And that’s definitely what we’re seeing here.
I’m reminded of this quote:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.
 
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Adam Look, if we're going to give out stimulus, I'm all for giving it to households vs the big banks/corporations. But this proposal is essentially Universal Basic Income of $90k a year. And hey, why stop there? Why not bump it up to $1 million/year for everyone? I'm against UBI for a host of reasons, but the principal one is that it will collapse our insolvent economy a lot faster and a lot harder -- unnecessarily increasing the pain for all parties.
Many peoples lives have been devastated! They have lost their jobs and businesses. Along with those go a sense of well being, self respect and security. Remember - when people have nothing left to lose they lose it! So isn’t it better to help them out rather than other possibilities like the following? When people get frustrated, angry, feel oppressed and disrespected they can retaliate. Here is an except from Dr. Pry’s book.
Sabotage Kinetic attacks are a serious threat to the electric grid and are clearly part of the game plan for terrorists and rogue states. Sabotage of the electric grid is perhaps the easiest operation for a terrorist group to execute and would be perhaps the most cost-effective means, requiring only high-powered rifles, for a very small number of bad actors to wage asymmetric warfare—perhaps against all 330 million Americans. Terrorists have figured out that the electric grid is a major societal vulnerability.
According to Mr. Pry’s interview here on PP an attack like above could cause a population reduction of 90% within a year. So I suggest that we stop coddling the rich and do whatever it takes to take care of the backbone of our society. Or the consequences could be a civil war or worse. Are you’ll prepared for “worse”? AKGrannyWGrit
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Adam, I am as disheartened as you sound. 8 Trillion it cost to enter and stay in the Middle East after 9-11. I don’t understand what happened to the checks and balances. This new proposal of Pelosi feels like a tit for tat. Republican’s got their first 3 bi-partisan bills passed, so lets give it a try, it looks like fun are what Congress are thinking. We’ll start by doubling.
We have the AI and Robots ready to take the Humans work away, is this a precursor to how people will be paid when no jobs are there to support them? Someone will have to pay for the new millions of lost jobs to all levels of laborer and management because Robots can do everything anyone else can do @ $30K a clip. So, lets do have a national pay structure for all. Oh, by the way, I am declaring now I am unretired and back at work. I don’t want to miss out on any free pay checks! Just kidding but this bullshit is never ending. Adam, the world has entered the Twilight zone. Be safe…

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Adam, where is this interview ? Discovery of this site and reading the Fourth Turning were pivotal moments in my awareness. I want to see any interview with this guy. Can’t seem to find it, I did a site search for his name and the latest I saw was 2015.