Mass Panic, Proxy Wars, Office Glut, Yield Curve, Banks, Recession, Deep State

The Department of Homeland Security’s 2006 report on Mass Psychogenic Illness (MPI) has resurfaced, shedding light on the psychological impact of social trauma and anxiety. MPI, a phenomenon where psychosomatic symptoms spread rapidly through a population, has been observed in various instances, such as a case in Chechnya and an incident in California. The report emphasizes the importance of incorporating plans to handle psychogenic illness into incident response plans, as the symptoms can mimic those of chemical and biological weapons. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic was criticized for exacerbating fear and panic, leading to questions about the number of people hospitalized and deaths due to MPI.

In international news, the ongoing proxy war between the US and Russia in Ukraine continues to simmer, with the US’s involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts also under scrutiny. The growing confrontation between the US and China, particularly over Taiwan, is another point of contention. Western media’s portrayal of Taiwan as a separate country being bullied by China has been criticized, with the article arguing that this portrayal is misleading and aims to promote the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s upcoming elections. The tensions between China and Taiwan are primarily attributed to US interference and aggression.

The commercial real estate market is facing challenges, with availability rates for office space in major markets worsening. San Francisco now has the highest availability rate at 36.7% in Q4 2023, despite major lease signings by OpenAI and Anthropic. The office glut in these markets is a result of companies grabbing office space during the “office shortage” in previous years, only to find themselves with unused space when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The bankruptcy filings of coworking companies Knotel and WeWork, which took on excessive office leases during the “office shortage,” are also highlighted.

The yield curve is showing signs of un-inverting, specifically in the direction of a bull steepening case. This means that short-term rates are going down faster than long-term rates, resulting in an upward sloping curve at a lower level. While this may seem bullish for safety and liquidity, it is actually a negative sign for the economy. The 2-year treasury rate is a key factor in this case, and it has been declining rapidly.

US banks are facing a major risk exposure as the global economy slows down. The Federal Reserve’s history of cutting rates ahead of inflation declines contradicts their claim that they care about inflation. The market is starting to realize the problems in the banking system, particularly in relation to commercial real estate loans. Office vacancies are at a record high, leading to a decline in valuations and potential defaults on loans. The banks are also facing challenges with credit card delinquencies, with rates exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Predictions of a global economic recession by April 2025 are circulating, with rising political tensions and tightening credit. The potential decline of the US dollar, a surge in inflation, and a crash in the global financial system are among the concerns. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia, are highlighted, along with weak economic conditions in Europe and America.

Lastly, the alleged efforts of the “deep state” to prevent Donald Trump from expanding his presidential power and becoming a dictator if he were to return to office are under discussion. Mary McCord, a key player in Trump’s impeachment, claims that the deep state is preparing to limit Trump’s ability to become a dictator and is ready to bring lawsuits if necessary. Organizations such as Democracy Forward and Protect Democracy are mentioned as part of a loose-knit network aiming to challenge Trump’s power.

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