Most Overvalued Stock Market Ever??

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Highly-respected economic analyst Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens.com notes that the discrepancy between today’s record financial asset prices and the underlying economy they’re supposed to reflect are the farthest off she’s ever seen in her entire career.

So, like other recent guest experts like Jesse Felder, Jim Bianco and David Hunter, she predicts a shockingly painful market correction looms in the coming months.

But worse than that, she expects that the central banks and their respective government will continue their stimulus expansion, stoking inflation and continuing to worsen society’s accelerating wealth inequality problem.

Which – let’s face it – has become a massive social outrage.

Yes, wealth inequality was very concerning prior to the pandemic. But since? The choices the central planners have made since have only made the problem much, much worse:

<img class=“size-medium aligncenter” src=“https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/EucdqqkVoAAKAK-.png” alt="“Wealth transfer caused by COVID” width=“600” height=“461” />

That’s disgusting: our response to the pandemic essentially was to make the already-rich substantially richer by taking wealth from those who could least afford to lose it.

The social, economic and financial repercussions to this will be widespread, dangerous, and long-lasting.

Which is why Pomboy agree that now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the nature of the risks and opportunities in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:

[ Watch & Download This Video on Vimeo ]

Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.

And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical resilience preparations.

We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.

But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE CONSULTATION

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/most-overvalued-stock-market-ever/

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Since everything I invest in always goes down [ in dollar terms ], dollars must go UP [ in asset terms ].
Brilliant! lol.
Alot of what was touched on here parallels what Ive been feeling in my gut. I dont really trust any market right now. Everything is so high, it cant continue. If you apply the “buy low sell high” philosophy at a time like this when everything is high…dollars must be low [ in comparison ] so the “buy low” move would be to trade assets for dollars.
I dont quite understand Stephanie’s position on treasuries since I would expect interest rates to rise [ at least in the short term ]. At the very least, I dont see how rates could be lower. Will they go from .03 down to absolute zero? Is the gain from such a move even worth the risk? IDK.
As far as the inflation/deflation discussion, I suspect that traditional concepts of inflation/deflation will not apply. There is a clear and growing split between the elites and the rest of society and we see time and again one set of rules for us and a completely different set of rules for them.
Just like we see small businesses labeled as “nonessential” while large corporate interests get to stay open…they get “bailouts” while we get “loans”, etc No reason to think that will change anytime soon. So, likely the huge mega-global industries will be the recipients of bailouts, free money, and loan forgiveness that result in inflation at that level. The average Joe will see his savings go down, his home worth less, and his wages stagnate while gas…taxes…insurance…food, etc will all go UP.
Inflation for the obscenely wealthy mega globalists…deflation for the rest of us. ‘Heads they win, tails we lose’. The only way to keep from losing might be not to play.

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…the discrepancy between today’s record financial asset prices and the underlying economy they’re supposed to reflect are the farthest off she’s ever seen
You know, I’ve never got anywhere trying to convince people they are stupid. Yet I’ve made a lot of money seeking to understand people who, to me, appear stupid. As Covey says: seek first to understand, and only then to be understood. Humility is simply more logical and productive.
…she predicts a shockingly painful market correction looms in the coming months.
Most people have been saying this for the last 100 months+! And wrong nearly every month. Why not just use stop losses.

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The average Joe will see his savings go down, his home worth less, and his wages stagnate while gas…taxes…insurance…food, etc will all go UP.
If you know this (and I think it’s a very good bet) why shake one’s fist at the rain? Rather, invest like the fat cats do. With one party rule + rigged elections, this game has no end is sight. Putin has done this for 20 years…I see no reason the US can’t have one-party rule for twice that time. Invest accordingly.

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The way to invest for the outcome I see coming is to steer clear of the markets. For a couple of reasons;
#1. The disconnect between the real economy and the markets. This means that stock prices could fall 80-90% while the companies themselves get bailed out and CEO’s receive billion dollar bonuses.
#2 The complexity of crashing markets makes predicting what goes up and what goes down very difficult. Too easy to get burned. Simpler to wait in cash and buy depressed assets later.
#3 The best investment IMO is personal investment into anything that makes you less dependent on the system, markets, and social upheaval. Paying off debt, storing essentials, producing as much of your needs as is practical.
#3

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So what happens when you get stopped out of your positions by a whipsawing market?  Stop-loss orders don’t necessarily prevent losses.  They just (supposedly) limit the extent of losses … usually.  What happens when there is a failure-to-execute, for one reason or another, because everyone is heading to the exits at the same time? 

Also, you say invest like the fat cats.  That strategy has significant risks as well.  Fat cats don’t always win.  In fact, quite a few fat cats have had their ***** handed to them.  But the financial media tends to glorify the winners and gives much less exposure to the losers so it seems like the fat cats always win.  They don’t.

In addition, “one party rule + rigged elections” is no guarantee there is no end in sight.  May I remind you that, from start to finish, the Third Reich lasted a grand total of 12 years, not a very long time in the grand scheme of things.  With everything being accelerated due to a multitude of factors, any “Fourth Reich” will likely last a much shorter time.  History is full of rapid demises under similar circumstances.

I’m not saying that your strategy won’t succeed, at least for the time being.  It may very well succeed.  But it is definitely not without risk (that is steadily growing in magnitude).

    

 

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you have been the most consistently right “investor” on pp
the narrative here for 12 years has been gold because the world is going to end.
at some point there will be a correction but it will be over j powells dead body.
anyone who invested in gold in the last 10 years has lost money. it has not bee a good hedge against inflation. you and others who have seen what money printing does to the assets the “fat cats” hold have done extremely well.
there are 2 very sure bets right now. commodities and crypto. there are some really good buys in stocks and some really hot ipo’s coming. cannabis has very long legs.
holding cash is flat out stupid
good on ya mate
ps real vision has a very balanced view on the macro factors

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I think what you have described is stagflation. It’s the most likely scenario. The markets are pretty much bullet proof at this point.

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My vote is for the Japanese result (maybe a best case scenario), They are 20+ years ahead demographically, and with lots of similarities.

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But who would fund all the shorters then. :slight_smile:
I can scream all day to use a stop loss, buy the dip etc, but they never listen, so I cant say I feel bad letting them be the bag holders. I got tired of being poor.

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From the absolute beginning until the end I felt like I do every day and what I think about mirrored everything you both felt and fed off each others today. There was never any confusion, the answers were truthful and covered every bias that I think about always.

Barb and I have these conversations every day and they are real but are very difficult to articulate. Stephanie explained her struggles in a very simular fashion so I felt empowered with that very honest explanation to the events of the day or this time period. I understand what is going on but at times find it difficult to share with Barb the bringing together of all the bits and pieces to explain to her so she can visualize or even understand what I’m trying to say.

I am blessed that I get every day to balance my research so I get the pro’s and cons and the time to discuss all the data with myself, and I am honest about the data and work very hard to have an open mind from the inception and NOT ALLOW my biases to interfer. I believe I’m thinking clearly.

I found todays podcast to be so self assuring that it calmed me with every minute you two made discussion. I can’t say that I feel great about what’s going on but I feel relatively safe that I kbow what I’m going to do and that my focus is on the right stuff that matters most which is capital preservation with still a risk averse mentality.

What a brilliant Woman, sensible in everything she delivered and Adam, you probably will NOT have another guest speaker come on, past or present or in the future that will engage all of us with the full picture of what’s going on out there. Just a fabulous interview.

Lastly, I noticed your very loving picture with your daughters and how happy as a father you look. Being a Dad isn’t for sissy’s, it’s tough, but I know your look and it’s as a Man who derives all his worth from being the father of these two fine young Lady’s leaving the greater value towards your Wife. Brother, one huge hat tip to you for what I believe is your truist nature. Plus, the star in back of you is as level as you can get it and I for one was happy you straightened it up. I was raised with Decorators that put premium on doing things the right way and then not having to do it again. So silly to say but when I enter any friends or families homes it is all these small things I see. By the time I leave their home I will have straightened most all these issues as a courtesy (rude behavior if caight) without the homeowner noticing. If it were to be obvious I’ll take blame for having bumped the object then ask for help straightening it. It is just one of my irks in life that I wish I didn’t have but, I do so I try and do it peacefully.

This was the very best Podcast you will give for years to come.

Thank you

Peace BOB

PS: Please tell Chris he is in our prayers and we wish him and his family well. I require no information concerning what he is going through.

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Agreed with an add. We will have the oil trade benefit from whatever comes. For many reason’s I believe this is so but, I know the pratfalls when I see them and have my stops registered so I can buy when I can see and calculate the trend in oil and natural gas. For now, I am fully invested with my funds to play in the market with. Barb is very conservatively invested with her strength being in cash. We use our funds as a total investment portfolio that we both claim. In other words what’s mine is hers and what’s hers is hers! LOL. We just like to play the game this way so we keep things fun and the attitude towards one another healthy. It keeps our interests and we learn more by discussion that requires thoughts. I respect Barb’s thought process so she is a great help for me and I believe she would say the same. She retires in 6 weeks and I will then have her every second of every day unless she decides to go part time in the hospital near us. I will support her decision as she is a serious credit to nursing and to patients that give her a great sense of herself so I will support whatever she decides. However, I would prefer all her time but will adjust because she’s a grown Women who will do what her heart tells her to do. Got to respect that. The financial benefit will be terrific too as our medical coverage will shield us from anything that may go seriously wrong with us as we age and all her income will be invested as we shouldn’t need any of it. We are debt free except I will grab all the equity in our Cabin, set aside that so we don’t risk a market down turn in real estate and lose half the value of our home. I believe it’s the smatest play and will over time benefit us. I am seriously thinking of Gold and Silver, Platinum and Palladium in the mix as well with another purchase of 20 acres nearby. I will only buy the land if we have a correction in real estate. Peace BOB 

 

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Its more or less stagflation but these terms can do more to limit our understanding/expectations. I do not agree that markets are “bullet proof”. I think they are extremely fragile right now but readily admit I really dont know.
How about a market that wipes out regular Joe’s 401k while preserving the wealth of the elite? Remember in Greece the Greek treasury bond holders had to take a “haircut” if they were regular individuals, but the large institutional bond holders had their bonds changed to “special bonds” that were worth full face value?
Thats how I see the entire system being rigged. The stock market will collapse but not before all the elite holders sell at the top. Then they’ll buy back in at the bottom, the government will pump the market back up. Regular Joe may not recoup his losses in his lifetime [ especially when adjusted for inflation ] but the big players will make out.
Im just trying to think outside the box of traditional definitions. When I graduated from college with a major in economics, if you would have told me we could have inflation and deflation simultaneously I would have said you were nuts. Now Im not so sure. What I see is not a market that moves naturally with market forces but one which defies natural forces at every turn. The one constant seems to be the .01% seem to get richer and at the expense of the dwindling wealth of the remaining 99.9%.
I become more and more convinced everyday that markets are literally a rigged casino. It becomes more and more difficult to justify sitting at the table.

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“PS: Please tell Chris he is in our prayers and we wish him and his family well. I require no information concerning what he is going through.”
oh no, what is going on with chris???

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Correct me if Im wrong but he made a video explaining that he is working on a new project and wont be as active here in the next few weeks. Said something about hanging sheetrock and building something, I cant quite remember. Looked in the peak of health and happiness so far as I could tell.

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In 10 years time the net energy available to mankind will be less than it is today. Asset prices, savings and pensions will reprice to this reality at some point, but who knows when. In the mean time denial is the order of the day, we’ll just carry on borrowing from the smaller future, foot to the metal, 100% debt to GDP, then 110%, 130%, 160%, 200%, 250%, 600%, Boom.
Energy is money. The world will have less of it so its value, in real terms, will shoot up.

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china has created an “artificial sun” work is picking up. all it needs is elon musk and it is a done deal.
https://www.livescience.com/nuclear-fusion-reactor-sparc-2025.html#:~:text=A%20viable%20nuclear%20fusion%20reactor,massive%20generation%20of%20clean%20energy.