Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
Examples of influential survey data are given
Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
Beware the "spin"
The bottom is not in yet
Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely
The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.
It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago...
One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called surveydata (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actualeconomicdata, which mainly surprised to the downside.
This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged' to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.
Chris
I just received an email with this info (source at bottom)
The U. S. Geological Service issued a report in April('08) that only scientists and oil men knew was coming. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since '95) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota ; western South Dakota ; and extreme eastern Montana ..... check THIS out:
The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska 's Prudhoe Bay , and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion
barrels.. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable.... at$107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.
'When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.' says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst. 'This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshoreoil field found in the past 56 years.' reports, The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a format ion known as the Williston Basin , but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada . For years, U. S. oilexploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves.... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL! That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economyfor 41 years straight. And if THAT didn't throw you on thefloor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS AGO!
4/20/2006 U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World! Stansberry ReportOnline -Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the RockyMountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in theworld. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8,2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In three and ahalf years of high oil prices none has been extracted. Withthis mother load of oil why are we still fighting overoff-shore drilling?
They reported this stunning news: have more oil inside our borders, t han all the other proven reservesWe
on earth.Here are the official estimates:8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia18-times as much oil as Iraq21-times as much oil as Kuwait22-times as much oil as Iran500-times as much oil as Yemenand it's all right here in the Western United States
James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we'vegot more oil in this very compact area than the entire