People with blood type A are more likely to be infected with Coronavirus while type O blood people are less likely to be infected. All types do get infected.
Unless your ready for the gravity of - our future isn’t going to look like our past.
Wow, going to take some time to wrap my mind around it. Info overload tonight, Chris and the Professor. Has to be a book plot in there somewhere.
With that study out of Rome, is there a number for the percentage of the random sample that tested positive? That would give us a rough number for total cases, which could be plugged into the CFR (if we assume asymptomatic cases will resolve to “recovered”).
Going by that study, it looks like employing all measures could keep the infection rate below hospital capacity. The way to keep the disease from bouncing back after controls are relaxed is to use the months of lock-down to burn firewalls. Start by sending a batch of kids back to school, infecting them, and keeping them there for two weeks. The batch sizes could be controlled to always keep hospitals from reaching capacity (most kids won’t need it anyway). In a few months every young person would be immune and no longer a hazard. Once they obtained their Honey-Badger merit badge, the young could fill positions requiring public contact. Played correctly, we might be able to achieve herd immunity in a five-month lock-down, without all the excess deaths.
Ok, for those who asked, I’ve compiled all the comments about methods to sterilize used masks. Hopefully that will give you some ideas to extend your mask supply.
Covid19 PPE – Sterilizing and Reusing Masks
Maybe I missed it since I didn’t read it very carefully, but isn’t there a flaw in the “beds available” line. It is flat. The hope is that we could ramp that up over time. So even if we are going to just postpone the highest part of the bell curve hopefully the “beds available” line would be greater by pushing it out (obviously never great enough to meet the total demand of those tall curves though).
Chloecasey, that’s a good question, and the answer is yes and no.
The line isn’t actually just number of beds, its the over all hospital system’s capacity. It includes things like beds but also drugs and health care workers and equipment like ventilators. Those will fluctuate as the crisis unfolds.
Afridev has a good chart that shows that in a recent comment. Afridev has it decreasing as the infection curve progresses due to HCWs becoming sick and or dying and leaving the system, dropping the number of people the system can save.
For simplicity, most people are showing it as a straight line.
Found this while chasing down references in the paper cited in the video.
Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza A: Balancing Conflicting Policy Objectives
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3037387/pdf/pcbi.1001076.pdf
That is interesting. I guess you could deduce the % of B by the rest. But I wonder why it was left out… B is the primary blood type of of asian continent. where O and A are actually a minority blood type - this study seems to suggest that its about 33/33/33 mix across asians and I know that is wrong. B is the majority of blood type accounting for about 45-55% of the population. Where as the majority of N american and Europe has A about 55-60% and about 30% O . and B is the minority in Europe and America. And O is the majority in africa. The point here … is if A was the majority of infections and death in asia… BOY!!! watch out here in the US where twice the populattion is A… My wife, and I and children are all B. ( asian blood ) we call ourselves. as I have blood allergies and disorders common in the asian population we are Caucasian… So , I know a bit about this.
Once they obtained their Honey-Badger merit badge, the young could fill positions requiring public contact. Played correctly, we might be able to achieve herd immunity in a five-month lock-down, without all the excess deaths.As a sci-fi writer, I'm open to outside the box thinking. Interesting idea.
In a major test of the Bay Area’s shelter-in-place edict, Alameda County on Tuesday evening deemed Tesla’s Fremont factory a “nonessential” business — hours after Chief Executive Elon Musk opened the plant and told his employees he would continue working despite a seven-county shutdown of virtually all major workplaces aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-elon-musk-says-its-totally-ok-for-tesla-employees-to-work-from-home/
Hey everybody,
I’ve alluded to my bout with a serious illness this past year and, given how much I value and guard my privacy, I tend to keep a low profile in general and especially so regarding personal matters. Even so, I’ve made the sole exception for participating with the PP tribe as you are all such a colorful, caring, engaging, intelligent and vibrant community. 
So…I’ll share with you my little St. Patty’s celebration: Today all tests (biopsy, CT scan, exams, etc.) confirmed that I “no longer have evidence of cancer”. Yeah!!! (In true medical CYA, no one except Hallmark cards uses the term “Cancer-free”–seriously, they have cards for that!!)
After enduring chemo-radiation therapy (which really, supremely SUCKS! BTW) and having my body, mind and life hijacked by this scourge, I am happy to have regained my energy, health and mental capacity (no more lapses into WTF, is that me?? “chemo-brain”–the WORST!).
And I’ve had enough of dealing with the “sick” care medical, pharmaceutical and insurance systems to puke a river. However, I especially appreciated the care and expertise of those heath care workers (who unfortunately don’t understand or are misinformed of the value of natural medicine) who have worked diligently to give me their/my best possible chance against this disease. More recently, I am concerned (as they are) about the challenges they and their medical fragile patients face with coronavirus.
(Sidenote: Want to prevent cancer?? Stop poisoning our bodies, food, air, water, environment…!!!)
No doubt that cancer is a big and profitable business (whether via government, for-profit or not-for-profit or some combination thereof) that feeds off of goodwill, hopes, fears and greed. It was strange for me to be a participant/victim/observer throughout this process. I was grateful yet mortified at the costs that my insurance covered for testing and care for me over these past nine months. Even still, I owe several thousands in co-pays, for which I’ll be paying for many months/years ahead. Reluctantly, I’ve had a front row seat at the table of the US “sick care” medical-pharmaceutical-financial casino in which one’s health, finances and life are up for grabs against actuarial and accountant overlords.
Come what may: "Fck 'em!" They don’t own or rule me, and I will do what I need to do to survive and thrive.
Throughout this process (people like to call it a “journey” apparently; no disrespect intended, I just never viewed it that way personally) I was keenly aware of how really lucky I was. My pre-cancer cells were diagnosed very early as suspicious, then confirmed at stage one, no metastasizing and with a relatively short “standardized” chemo-radiation treatment protocol with very favorable survival rates (90+%). I have no co-morbid conditions (and no family history or risk-factors for cancer, BTW). The prognosis was positive from the start. Still, I could easily be among those “special” 10% that wouldn’t make it; and I often find myself among the “special” group.
Many of those waiting with me (in ill-fitting hospital gowns and booties, eyes averted, with only hesitant, anxious and looks and curt conversations) in the radiation waiting room, were gravely ill, with a prognosis clearly much worse than mine. Some were wheeled-in on gurneys, with grey skin and unaware of their surroundings. Some weeks I walk around with a “portable” infusion pump that added a 3-foot perimeter and impediment to getting dressed and navigating even the simplest of tasks. (Now easily adapted as a 1/2 space reminder of the 6 ft. “social distance” needed for CV prevention spread.) I felt strangely grateful for the ability to mingle so intimately among those–me included!--on the precipice of life and death.
This has been hard for me and my family in many ways, and yet divine intervention/circumstance cleared the way for me to fully attend to getting well during this especially difficult time.
Unbeknownst to you all, the PP community and content has been an anchor to reality, mental acuity and social engagement that helped me to navigate throughout this tumult and emerge intact and strong. Whew, and thank you!
I also want to acknowledge the struggles of PP members who have experienced, or are now struggling with similar life altering/threatening experiences, even within or over and above the current clusterfck of the coronavirus/financial crises.
In my thoughts in particular is someone who precede my time here at PP is valued, long-time PP member Michael Rudman. He sent a very moving, poignant comment regarding his struggle and acceptance of stage four cancer and prognosis, with his fond farewell to his long-time comrades here at PP. I sent him a PM, and still wish him well. I feel for him and his loved ones, and appreciate very deeply that I could easily be in his circumstance.
There but for the grace of God, go I.
Happy Saint Patrick’s Day, everyone! Here’s a bit of St. Patrick’s Day silliness from Jimmy Kimmel, who as are other late-night comedy hosts, is isolating at-home to keep themselves and others safe from this CV pandemic. https://youtu.be/bEQl6Pt-654?t=490
Stay well, all. We live to fight another day.
All the best,
~Sparky1
14 patients on Monday, 5 went home with negative test, 1 went to ICU and 8 are still waiting on their test results (taking two days + to get!). I will try and show how this progresses as weeks unfolds. This is for just one Hospital in the Clinton Twp. area hospital, Michigan, about 15 min. outside Detroit. Food has been flying off the shelves now, no one is wearing masks. I’ve decided to order curb side pick up, costs is 4.95!!! A NO BRAINER. For a little more it gets delivered to my apartment. That is what we will do! We decided late last year to sell our home, I did this so we wouldn’t run into any of this type thing (I thought it would be Financial though). Now that this Coronavirus has hit I can still proceed with our Log Cabin. I wish you well Folks. Here’s my thing, this is the hand we were dealt, you survive or don’t. My plans are to not only survive but thrive and so far so good. My life hasn’t changed a bit because we envisioned this at some point in our future and is why we sought out the Chris’s in this world, the Charles H. Smith’s. All of us did. I too are a strong believer of boycott and my list is getting pretty long. I had a thought: are we still making 50 different cereals in this environment when Corn Flakes, Sugar Bears, Sugar Pops and Shredded Wheat are just fine with me? I mean, who really needs fruity pebbles? Must admit, I seldom eat cereal anymore. I favor Tusca (Veal dipped in farm fresh eggs dipped in flour then cooked for one minute (there thin sliced). It’s all I seem to eat of late. My ham and eggs!
Peace
From yesterday’s video thread, there was some good discussion of precautions the US military is taking with its personnel. One assertion, or assumption that’s worth looking at is that the govt is prioritizing military personnel for testing, or that the military is testing all of its personnel.
However…
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3075578/how-will-worlds-most-powerful-military-fight
buried in the middle is this line: “The defense department has tested 495 personnel worldwide”. Think about that. That is the active duty and reserve component personnel of all services. Plus DoD civilian employees, contractors, and dependent family members. 495 is an insignificant number.
I just want to dispel any notion that the military is somehow better prepared than the rest of govt, has a better plan, or is being prioritized in any way for testing.
For those interested, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is running online course on COVID 19 staring next Monday, 23rd March.
The link to the course is:
https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus?utm_campaign=fl_march_2020&utm_medium=futurelearn_organic_email&utm_source=newsletter_broadcast&utm_term=200313_ADH__0030_COVID&utm_content=course05_copy
A link to London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is:
https://www.futurelearn.com/partners/london-school-hygiene-tropical-medicine?utm_campaign=fl_march_2020&utm_medium=futurelearn_organic_email&utm_source=newsletter_broadcast&utm_term=200313_ADH__0030_COVID&utm_content=copy
Richard
I did not like this video today because it stunk from the smell of revenge without giving any consideration of the consequences. Don’t you think you are going a little overboard Chris? The public companies you are talking about are more than just a bunch of stock sales that rewarded insiders and management during buybacks.
The values of those shares is also what backs the value of the nations pension plans and 401k’s. And the companies that sell those shares publicly are also the largest employers in the country. If you convince enough people that they should not be supported during this emergency with your misdirected rant against supporting companies during a crisis because you think they are bad actors are you also prepared to make an important video apologizing for why millions of pensions and jobs will be wiped out while you are pressing your 4th turning agenda?
Honestly brother, you are completely out to lunch on this one. I am not saying there are no problems in the system but are you not pushing this “shut down of the whole system” thing a little too far in your zeal to contain a virus that may or may not even be that dangerous? In six months or a year when some of the biggest companies in the country are bankrupted because of a combination of Corona virus panic and the rallying call from people just like you to close the entire economy, do you really think America will be better off?
Lately your work has gone right off the rails and lost all perspective because even though there might be some elements of truth in your analysis, your prescriptions are about the equivalent of giving arsenic to the patient with a tablespoon of mercury on top to fix everything. Your lack of understanding of what this economy needs to recover and sustain itself while we deal with this viral outbreak is remarkable. What part of mass unemployment sounds good to you? Will that make your community safer? Your entire thesis of shutting it all down to prevent contagion (that 97% of people will survive anyway) is terribly flawed and extremely damaging because ultimately everyone will be impacted by the virus anyway.
So we cannot avoid it and hiding in bunkers won’t make it go away.
Even the Chinese have recently discovered that the illness erupts again as soon as people return to work so all those closures over there and the utter devastation and collapse of that economy were not successful in stopping what cannot be stopped anyway. The approach was wrong headed from day one. We need to reassess this thing from scratch and business must carry on. There does not even have to be bailouts of companies if the companies keep operating, does there? Except people like you keep shouting to “flatten the curve” and “stay home” and you have been pushing that narrative so persuasively that you now have a huge following that backs the idea without any insight into the incredible damage that this is causing.
Could you perhaps tone it down a little because you are losing my support. But not only that, lately you have become one of the most dangerous influencers on the topic of solving the problems of how to deal with Corona Virus with your damaging prescriptions and I am beginning to think maybe you are getting a little drunk on your fame without realizing you and people just like you have now become the biggest hazards to the entire economy.
You went from being highly informative, entertaining and helpful on this subject of Covid19, straight into being a social nuisance and a problem to everyone who has a business, a job or a pension. It is far preferable to getting this virus than it is to taking your advice. At least there will be something to wake up to tomorrow.
Chris and Adam,
My wife and I have been watching your daily posts on the Novel Corona Virus since you started posting in January and warned our children, who are spread around the country, that they should begin preparing in January. We could totally relate when you wrote about how some are not ready to accept the reality of what was coming and accepted that they would come around eventually. We even chuckled to ourselves as one, who was particularly critical, finally called to say they hadn’t prepared adequately and had no idea it would get this crazy.
I also read Martin Armstrong’s daily blogs faithfully and am a subscriber to his entry level private blog. Martin has been critical of Gold Bugs, but also states there will be a time when Gold will rise as the dollar falls, but that time is not yet. Armstrong is not an epidemiologist, but he’s seriously well connected on economic matters and is a student of history and all things which have significant economic consequences, including modeling the cycles of sickness, to which he says we are at the start of a cycle that wasn’t supposed to peak for another 2 years, yet we’ve gone off the rails on this virus without justification.
After watching last night’s video update, in which you reported the virus infection rates for the UK, which has admitted it lacks sufficient medical beds for serious respiratory infections with only 25 in the whole country, something I presume is caused by their Social Medicine constraints, shows that no matter which approaches are taken, the hospitals in the UK will be overwhelmed and if we force it down too quickly, it will most likely re-occur and spike a second time.
In contrast to your daily messages, Martin Armstrong he has been criticizing the entire event as overblown and doing way more damage than is warranted. In recent days, he’s even outright declared there must be a conspiracy of some kind behind this as it is so irrational. Last night he posted this:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/dr-wolfgang-wodarg-confirms-this-is-an-insane-panic/
After listening to the embedded video and observing that China initially blew up and has since stabilized, coupled with the details in your video from yesterday, I’m now asking myself whether this whole event is overblown? I’ve also watched the historical documentaries on what happened in 1917/18, watched interviews with people who lived through that epidemic from historical archives, and have heard how my great grandfather died of Sepsis immediately after recovering from the Spanish Flu, and lived through the 1968 Epidemic though I was only 6 at the time. I also survived Measles, Mumps, and Chicken pox, along with many cases of the flu in my lifetime.
My wife works in a Public School in Colorado that suddenly extended Spring Break by a week on the front side, leaving little time to prepare. We had already made plans to take extra time off to travel to AZ, a part that hasn’t had a single case reported yet, to be with her 82 year old mother who’s recently been diagnosed with a tumor on a kidney which has been non-functioning since she was a child and also has an external lesion in a sensitive area that has been diagnosed as cancerous and was scheduled for surgical removal yesterday. After watching the number of cases climb and government reactions increase, we decided my wife should not fly out but we would take extra time off and drive out to reduce the chance my wife would be exposed in airports and bring the virus to her mom accidentally. We arrived Sunday evening, but on Monday, after 14+ hours of traveling here over the weekend, the Dr. calls to say they are postponing the surgery. Likewise, the Nephrologist calls to cancel her afternoon appointment on Monday, which was to be a consult in preparation for scheduling the kidney/tumor removal in April, another reason we traveled all this way. So now, knowing that the Novel Coronavirus infection will continue to spread over time, we wonder when these procedures might be re-scheduled and at what risk to her personal health, given she has two cancerous conditions that will remain untreated?
Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg’s video embedded in Armstrong’s blog post calls the question, declaring that the Emperor has no clothes, but the din of hysteria will drown out the messenger in this instance if no one gives heed. Clearly, we are probably off the cliff already on this whole situation Economically as every leading governmental figure strives to look like they are doing everything possible to stem the rising tide. If, as you reported Chris, there may actually as many as 75% of the cases which are asymptomatic, is it not possible that we’ve really overblown this situation? Couldn’t we be well on our way to developing herd immunity? Doesn’t the chart from the U.K. showing the whole thing could blow over by August suggest we may be overreacting? Isn’t it true that their charts represent an extreme in comparison to the U.S. Medical system’s capacity to treat truly ill patients? Aren’t you fostering false panic like one respondent noted about family members in FL who rushed to the hospital only to discover they had the common flu and not the Novel Coronavirus, but in the process, may have exposed themselves to the new virus if the threat is real? Aren’t there way too many people panicking with cart loads of toilet paper? If not, help me to understand what Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, a practicing epidemiologist, has gotten wrong in his analysis of what has already occurred and is happening? He seems to be suggesting that no one has the data to properly assess the reality of the risk of this “Novel Coronavirus” and points out that Coronaviruses make up 10%-15% of the “common flu” case history which has demonstrated a maximum combined R0 of only 1.0 with death rates of 0.1% or 1/1,000 deaths for those who become ill each year and that the number of deaths from Novel Coronavirus haven’t even come close to the normal Coronavirus deaths routinely experienced every year? Given what you’ve shared, is it really worth the risk of crashing the global economy to pursue such draconian measures as are now being implemented across our country and the world? You argued yesterday that companies who implemented stock buybacks to boost share price should not be bailed out… If pension funds hold those shares and are in dire straits, won’t punishing those same corporations actually punish the general populace whose Index Fund investments in 401K’s, the now most prevalent form of retirement funding, at risk of losing their life savings? Where’s the balance in all of this?
Thank you. It is very useful to have all of this in one spot.
ao wrote:
AK Granny is right about one thing. Enough people saying “enough” can make a difference. The problem is, society has been so effectively and efficiently divided that it will be exceedingly difficult to unify them to act as one without a multitude of scab turncoats. Boycotting won’t do it. History shows something else will though.I have found lots of common ground between the "left" and "right" around two issues, which are inter-related: localism, and organic. The political right speaks about localism in terms of states rights, stronger community power to govern itself, weak federal level authority. The political left speaks of localism as such, but also as grassroots democracy and building community. Organic is less of a bridging concept and is generally thought of as being the province of the "left," but the "right" has a moderately sized contingent of "conservatives" who think the term includes conserving the soil, the right to seeds and seed diversity (opposition to narrowing selection, and patenting), and the right to eat as one wants. Such rights are part of local control and maximal individual autonomy. Too often both sides miss the fact (almost ironically, in this era) that the common pursuit of localism is an affirmation of the core principle behind the US Constitution: that people in their communities (village, county) reserve maximal power to govern their common life, and that the federal government be as weak as possible without disintegrating. Of course states are at least as capable of coordinating response to shared problems - like this pandemic, but also resource allocation and protection - as the federal government; better even, being on the scene and knowing the idiosyncrasies of local concern and needs. There's a long body of work documenting the ability of locals to define and protect common resources - some have been working successfully for 500 years and more! (See Ostrom, "Governing the Commons") The answer to the threat of DC is to rebuild community and own our shared responsibility for personal and common welfare at the local level. I'm not expecting it any time soon. A healthy locality would not hope for federal dollars, but would be helping one another weather hard times. We are far from that! But, hey, maybe this experience will shift our expectations enough that we'll corporately want to get off the federal government's teat. That's what's required as a prerequisite to telling them to go to hell.
I think bailouts should ONLY be used for those companies deemed “critical” to an ongoing economic recovery or to help in the struggles with the Covid-19 pandemic.
ALL other bailouts should be part of the existing U.S. bankruptcy process where shareholders are wiped out, assets are reorganized, executive level employees are terminated, and shares in a new, debt free company are sold after the new company comes out of receivership in a few years. Employees should get job and financial protections for their wages, pensions and 401ks.
We cannot allow bailouts without having consequences to the people responsible for the terrible financial decisions that put these companies in this place to begin with.
“NEVER Again” should be our new motto.
And YES, I would be taking a financial hit to my retirement accounts and probably to my pension plan, however these bailouts have to STOP!