Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/oil-prices-near-historic-lows-vs-money-supply-central-bankers-have-mixed-opinions-on-gold/
Economy
Oil prices are near historic lows relative to global money supply. Some analyses, based on past patterns, suggest the commodity is undervalued at these levels, even as current narratives point to a potential prolonged downturn. Counterarguments highlight structural shifts toward renewables and improved production efficiency as factors that could sustain low prices longer than historical trends indicate.
Central bankers have offered differing views on goldâs increase of 2.6 times since October 2022, reaching over $4,000 per ounce. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has described the rise as irrelevant to inflation, which he attributes to supply and demand factors. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has interpreted the 50% year-to-date increase as evidence of eroding trust in the dollarâs reserve status, citing the need for geopolitical credibility, rule of law, strong institutions, and military power. Official reserves now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, with gold comprising 23% of global allocations compared to 22% for Treasuries, according to World Gold Council and IMF data. Central banks purchased 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, 1,086 tonnes in 2024, and 634 tonnes through the first three quarters of 2025, led by emerging markets including China (adding 24.9 tonnes officially, and potentially 180-320 tonnes), Russia, Turkey, Poland, and India. The dollarâs share of reserves has declined to 58% in the second quarter of 2025 from 71% in the early 2000s, accelerated by sanctions such as the 2022 freeze of $300 billion in Russian assets, which has increased goldâs appeal as an unseizable asset. BRICS expansion and discussions of a gold-backed âUnitâ for settlements indicate ongoing diversification efforts, with Granger causality tests linking gold purchases to shifts in reserve compositions. Despite these trends, some analyses maintain that the U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency due to its liquidity and lack of viable alternatives.
In other news, Bitcoinâs price has declined amid a broader sell-off in risk assets, following the Federal Reserveâs cautious outlook after a recent rate cut. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated there is no assurance of a December rate cut, which has reduced the odds from 90% to 63% according to CME FedWatch Tool data. This prompted $800 million in outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds last week. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 35, in fear territory. Long-term holders offloaded more than 100,000 BTC in October, and a negative Coinbase premium indicates weak U.S. sentiment. Analysts identify $113,000 as a key resistance level and $88,000 as support, where a breakdown could lead to further selling. U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks have strengthened the dollar and gold. Some analysts, however, suggest a potential recovery if Bitcoin closes above $113,000, viewing the dip as a buying opportunity amid historical rebound patterns.
The downturn occurs alongside reduced enthusiasm for Nvidia, despite its strong earnings and demand for Blackwell chips, as markets reversed gains. The Dow fell 0.84% to 45,752, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,500, and the Nasdaq declined 2.16% to 22,000. Concerns include vulnerabilities in private credit and a flat Beveridge curve signaling labor market strains. Reports mention bankruptcies in firms such as First Brands and Pricolor, as well as issues in opaque private credit portfolios. Credit spreads on junk bonds have widened since October 7, reflecting liquidity pressures and redemptions. Retailers like Target, Home Depot, and Walmart reported mixed quarterly results, which some attribute to economic softness rather than Federal Reserve policy shifts. Others attribute the market reaction more to broader macroeconomic factors, such as anticipated Federal Reserve decisions on rates, rather than solely private credit issues.
Health
A Florida psychotherapist, Dr. Joe Sansone, has filed a lawsuit against state officials seeking to halt the distribution of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, which he has described as biological and technological weapons of mass destruction. The case, initially dismissed in December, has advanced on appeal. Sansone is seeking an injunction, citing alleged violations of Floridaâs constitutional right to life and public safety concerns, including vaccine shedding. He references dozens of peer-reviewed studies that he says document deaths and disabilities associated with the vaccines, as well as a CDC acknowledgment that they are not safe and effective. Sansone plans to subpoena Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joe Ladapo, who has referred to the vaccines as poison. Sansone argues that their continued availability indicates criminal intent by federal authorities and cites a study in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons that reportedly concludes both the virus and vaccines breach the biological weapons convention. Vaccine advocates, including Dr. Peter Hotez, have described such claims as unfounded misinformation, emphasizing that the vaccines have saved millions of lives and undergone rigorous testing.
Separately, Tatiana Schlossberg, a cousin of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has developed cancer and has been told he has less than a year to live. She has criticized Kennedy for cutting funding of research into mRNA vaccines, stating his policies could hurt cancer patients. Her sister Caroline and brother Jack were huge promoters of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and Schlossberg is reported to have received multiple COVID shots.
Meanwhile, U.K. regulators have approved the first clinical trials of puberty blockers for children with gender dysphoria since a nationwide ban took effect last year. The approval follows the Cass Review, which found that evidence for their use in gender transition lacks solid foundations. The Pathways trial, led by Kingâs College London and funded by ÂŁ10.7 million from the National Institute for Health and Care Research, will enroll up to 250 children under 16 in England and Wales who have experienced at least two years of gender dysphoria and begun puberty. Informed consent will be required from both the child and a parent or guardian. Participants will be randomly assigned to receive either puberty suppression alongside non-medical care or non-medical care alone, with monitoring for two years. A subset will undergo brain scans and cognitive assessments in the related Pathways Connect study. Officials state that medical decisions must rely on robust evidence and prioritize childrenâs safety, with results expected in four years. Some participants may continue treatment if deemed clinically justified, despite the ban. Critics, including groups like Transgender Trend, have expressed concerns that the trial could prioritize medical interventions over non-medical support and risk long-term effects on participants.
Environment
Startup Stardust has raised $60 million from 13 investorsâthe largest funding round for solar geoengineeringâto support experiments involving the dispersal of sun-reflecting particles from planes at 11 miles altitude, starting in April. The company aims for a 2027 demonstration that would reduce temperatures equivalent to 1% extra cloud cover by annually releasing 1 million tons of particles. CEO Yanai Yedvab, a former Israeli Atomic Energy Commission scientist, states that the undisclosed particles are safe, ozone-neutral, and biodegradable. The company is preparing for potential full-scale deployment with 100 planes by 2030 if governments contract them, while seeking U.S. deals and lobbying for regulations. A 2023 investor pitch projected $200 million in annual revenue, a possible 2028 acquisition or IPO, and noted that low-altitude tests have already been conducted. The firmâs limited disclosure on methods and impacts has prompted calls for international governance. Scientists have raised concerns about potential side effects, such as regional droughts and intensified storms, and criticized the approachâs secrecy as eroding public trust.
Britainâs Royal Society stated in a November report that stratospheric aerosol injection could lower global temperatures but warned of potential side effects, including sub-Saharan droughts, intensified North Atlantic hurricanes, and Mediterranean winter dry spells. The report noted that incomplete models have hindered debate and that an abrupt halt could lead to rapid warming from lingering CO2. Researchers, including Indiana Universityâs Ben Kravitz, suggest likely net benefits for most regions despite uneven effects but have criticized Stardustâs secrecy as undermining public trust. Calls for global governance frameworks have intensified to address these risks and ensure coordinated oversight.
Sources
Florida Psychotherapist Sues to Halt mRNA COVID Shots, Calling Them Bioweapons
âI am not asking for money. What I am asking for is for the court to issue an injunction prohibiting the governor and attorney general to allow the continued distribution of the mRNA nanoparticle injections and products because they are biological and technological weapons of mass destruction.â
Source | Submitted by Rodster
Bitcoin Plunges to $107K as Fedâs Cautious Stance Crushes Crypto Optimism
The main trigger behind Bitcoinâs recent slide is the Federal Reserveâs cautious stance following its latest interest rate decision, as per the report.
Source | Submitted by Rodster
Stardustâs Audacious Bid: Dimming the Sun to Halt Global Warming
âThe Strange and Totally Real Plan to Blot Out the Sun and Reverse Global Warmingâ
Source | Submitted by Shplad
Central Bankers Clash: Goldâs Surge Signals Eroding Dollar Trust
Thatâs a clear sign that the trust in the reserve currency that the dollar has been, is and will continue to be, is eroding a bit.
Oilâs Historic Cheapness Against Money Supply: History Says Itâs a Bargain
Oil is currently near its cheapest levels in history when measured against money supply.
The Golden Pivot: Central Banksâ Quiet Assault on Dollar Dominance
For the first time since 1996, central banks outside the United States now hold more gold than US Treasury securities.
UK Approves First Puberty Blocker Trials for Gender Dysphoric Children Since Ban
âMedical care must always be based on solid evidence, and childrenâs safety must come first.â
RFK Jr.âs Cousin Diagnosed with Cancer
Her mother Caroline & her brother jack pushed the deadly shots incessantly!
Nvidiaâs Glow Fades: Cockroaches, Garbage Lending, and a Flat Beveridge Curve
Flat beverage is king right now, not Nvidia.
Source | Submitted by rhollenb
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: ABC News, Dr. Peter Hotez, CDC, Science-Based Medicine, The New York Times, BBC, Transgender Trend, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Intercept, Royal Society, and the Financial Times.