That’s pretty much my understanding of what peak oil theorists believe. What part of peak oil theory do you disagree with?
Doug
Johnny O,
I think he answered your question when he made the statement:
“We have a saying at work (not gonna say which science focused agency).”
Sounds like someone who receives a paycheck from the primary consumer of thin air fiat currency manufacturing, INC.
Coop
Johnny,
I agree. It is baffling. All those people are, though, is 30 sec. sound bite fools. They apparently do not want to know more. Change is difficult, and there are a lot of people who want to live in fantasy land. Think about the last 30 years. Anyone could have predicted that if you continued to cut taxes and increase spending we would end up right here. I know this is a controversial thing to say, but America is getting what it deserves. We have been narcissistic consumers with borrowed money, so the time has come to pay.
I had lunch with a really sharp young engineer and he was telling me about his study and report on the viability of wind and solar as combined replacements for oil, natuarl gas, coal (combined or individually) .. Even when he stacked the assumptions to near ridiculous odds in favor of "green" energy, it was still in the single digits in terms of percent of energy provided by these sources - not to mention the incredible costs of wind and solar to acheive that level.I completely agree with the above statement.
And I would also add that we couldn’t build enough nuclear plants because of the cost not to mention there isn’t enough uranium on the plantet to keep hundreds or thousand of nuclear plants running idefinitely.
I think one of the biggest take-aways from peak oil is that there isn’t a replacement/s. Our current volume of energy consumption is going to end which means a complete re-think of how we live our lives.
But this notion that there is so much oil on the planet that we don’t need to worry is just simple crazy and thoughtless.
G’Day Tecnet,You quite possibly were not alive in the 70’s when the oil shocks hit. I was in Uni. These shocks were short and sweet, but they left a warning to ALL Americans that life can be quite difficult, very quickly. I was in Seattle at the time. It made me buy a small car . I also moved closer to work. It also forced American car companies to make smaller cars. The speed limit went down to 55mph. It caused inflation, that required 18% interest rates to quell. This left an ever lasting impression on me. Luckily, it all went away, but it was obvious that things were gonna get real tough. Next time it could stay that way.
I started working in the oil patch to ‘help America’? Sounds corny, but it was my intention. At least I got a job that paid well. I still work on wells. I bring them ‘on-line’ all the time. I can tell you that the wells are being worked-over, coming up the hole all the time shooting new zones. It’s only a matter of time before it becomes a ‘dry’ hole.
I went to California to see about work, but I was put off by all the wells that were being abandoned. I wanted nothing to do with abandoning wells as a steady diet. So I didn’t work in Californina. I worked in Oz offshore. I did help abandon the biggest well that ever produced oil in Australia. It was off shore in the Bass Straight. The lads on the platform were a bit teary eyed when I began the operations, because they remembered the whole platform shaking when it came on line. It was #1 well in Bass Straight…and I plugged it. It was dead! End of an era out there for them. It meant the beginning-of-the-end for them on the platform.
Right now, I live in an area that produces 3 million barrels per day within 100km from where I’m wriing this, so I ain’t worried…for now. I changed my vocation choice, so I’m prepared. Are U?
Regards,
Woomera
[quote=Damnthematrix]“Finding the energy to boil the water will be even tougher. Chevron could use oil instead of natural gas—literally burning oil to produce oil—but that would burn profits, too. So the company likely will be forced to import natural gas from overseas, an expensive process that involves chilling it to turn it into a liquid, then shipping it thousands of miles.”
If EVER you needed an example of lower ERoEI… this is IT! This example is a great one of clutching at straws.
The Party’s Over guys…
Mike
[/quote]
Well said. However, do you think there is any chance for ANY technology to be feasible at a given future price of a barrell of oil?
For example, why do we think “in the box” by using old methods of steam extraction? Why not look into the possiblity of sound waves, aka microwaves. If we can generate it on our kitchen cabinent to liquefy “molasses”, why not use it downhole? Electronic technology is already decades long into the finding of the potential oil reservoirs, why not equip the same technology to “liquify” the heavy crude?
If sulphur is a by-product then engineering could be put in place to handle the potential hazard. Perhaps when crude oil hits $300 a barrel, there will be a lot more feasible technologies to utilize to extract the product.
Just saying.
[quote=Johnny Oxygen]But this notion that there is so much oil on the planet that we don’t need to worry is just simple crazy and thoughtless.
[/quote]
Your statement is true, but I would clarify it a little. We have ended the era of cheap oil. There are still many deep canyons yet to be explored in the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic (specifically Brazil). I hope the new domestic laws in place will make if safer for the environment and the industry to explore. Unfortunately, the cost of negligence has also exponentially increased the cost of finding “non-cheap” oil. In 6000’ of water the spread cost to finding the fossil fuel is now about $1 million dollars per day with average drill times close to 90 days. A 5 well platform would put the spread cost to nearly half a billion dollars. Therefore, the unconventional oil plays (at least in the Deepwater GoM) HAVE to be economically prolific or it’s a non-starter.
A point of interest, "Why would the Chinese invest nearly 10 billion dollars in Petrobras (Brazil’s national oil company) if the future potential at a predetermined contract price were not so feasible to their country? I think they get the idea of Peak Cheap Oil. Oh, and by the way, they get to buy all that production with cheap American dollars!
G’Day Damnthematrix,Big Blue (Schlumberger) bought this technology some years ago from Raytheon. I was working for the mob when this came out. I know I was excited, but maybe for naught. Big Blue won’t put it out until it works. Maybe never?
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_8329977
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news1.24c.html
Regards,
Woomera
Some things that are facts from my perspective:
- No one has been able to really explain accurately how much oil resources are available in the earth’s crust.
2) We know they are not “fossil fuels” and did not come from decayed animal/plant life - which actually made no sense to me when I first heard it ages ago, but I swallowed the pill anyway (among several others) - The best and most logical position I can find is that oil/gas is not being depleted but that the amounts are likely vast and untapped. Russians ironically have away of cutting through crap like climate change and peak oil…They have likely put the most unrestrained effort into understanding it.
- The corporate /political motivations to manipulate researchers, educators, and the general public is tremendous while corruption, lies and manipulations are revealed regularly to an apathetic and reality-detached public – “just feed me more green stuff and show me some movies”.
- The themes/trends between supposedly disparate issues seem to be similar, whether it’s food, medicine, oil, “climate change” (AKA "Weather’), population control – it takes years for most of us to wake up - it took me a while and I am still waking up I guess…
Now - As for the personal attack/comment about me and my work perspective, I started out in the system (unknowingly I suppose) and am still “in the system”… I think I work hard and study hard and am a good person. Not a leech - though I know many. [ actually leeches are pretty important - too bad they get a bad rap] A part of any prep plan should be to make sure you have valuable skills and talents that are needed once ( or if) the system leaves you or you leave it. I would like to hear from one of who think you are not playing in the system anymore (even if not a gummint employee). Understanding your dependencies and having alternatives is important part of the plan. Those whose success/ knowledge soley rely on the financial services sector will be the hardest hit - moreso than ‘gummint’ employees.
All of that said I believe in being thrifty ( note the screen name), and believe wasting resources of any type is not good. Neither is concocting grand schemes to brainwash/force people to embrace one-world government, give up what little liberties they have and step one foot closer to the new definition of slavery… Idealistic, I know… but hey … you only live once.
Now as far as me writing down all of the supporting data for you here, I would say that is too much to expect. Some of you stopped reading many sentences ago. That’s why I made my little comment before breakfast and came back for more. Go study the subject yourself. Nobody here presents enough data to convince anyone else - not even the "owner’… There’s enough to make you think about it and look into things for yourself.
I am new to this site, but not at all new to the concept espoused here. Been at the ‘being prepared’ game a long time in varying ways off and on. I am still trying to figure out Martenson’s true angle because the feel and person type I sense here is different than most preparedness / self reliance sites. Pardon me for expressing a generalization or opinion that this seems like the 'preppy, urban, cafe latte version of prepper sites… To oversimplify, but maybe accurately - The country type/woods loving (mostly conservative or liberatrian) folks have been after these issues for decades (literally) and this site seems to be filled with many left leaning folks who are finally waking up and are rightly worried - but about the wrong causes of things - IMO anyway.
Even if we disagree on the source of the issue, we can hopefully agree that there WILL VERY LIKELY BE issues and we all need to get our houses in order.
Scout
PS… I got a chuckle from the comment form one guy saying he bought a pistol and a shotgun -as something he could never imagine himself doing before!!.. All I can say to those of you who are like that guy, please be careful - Buying a piano does not make one a musician…While anyone can learn to use a firearm pretty easily, your mindset / attitude and self control are the critical components… You had better learn to be cool, think fast, fight, and yes - get in shape - if you want that pistol to be worth a dang. Learn to hunt. Otherwise you are just an easy source of a good gun for the guy who did not buy one - and trust me, there are plenty of “nice people” who are planning on using your preps instead of doing their own…
Scout,
Welcome aboard.
If you are not concerned about Peak Oil or Climate Change, why bother being a prepper?
What is your outlook; Why do you do it?
Prepping is prepping, so in that sense it is all good. However I think reaching the right conclusions about what is happening and why is important as well. We work on all aspects of that.
This isnt really a survivalist site, for the most part. Maybe that is the difference of tone that you notice.
Scout
You know very little about this site and the individuals that it is made up of.
We have a thread called “The Definitive Firearms Thread”
This thread goes into a great deal of depth about self protection and use of firearms. There are some very knowledgable people on this site in regards this topic.
I think you should check the arrogance at the door before you assume you have us all figured out.
If you want to believe that there is plenty of oil and its only being hidden from us fine. This site is about those very types of discussions but you’ll find that you will be expected to show proof of your beliefs here if you want to be taken seriously.
Why not bring at least as much information to the argument that Chris has before disregarding his side of the argument?
Scout
I would probably be more likely to take your words seriously regarding your refutations of Peak Oil, if you actually posted links to actual research and news articles, with relevant quotes included prior to the links.
Poet
Chris, your note just above the first chart suggests that you are unaware of reasons why EIA would upwardly revise the crude oil supply. It is possible that recent shale oil production across the United States is having a significant impact on U.S. domestic production. I’m seeing it first hand here in New Mexico and Texas and reading about it elsewhere. See http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/energy-environment/28shale.html?_r=1
As interesting as the subject of “peak oil” is, I’m convinced that the US will only do what is the cheapest and most expedient at every stage of crisis and decline, if that is indeed what happens. Similar to “global warming” there is no political payoff to acting preemptively (other than setting up a system that further taxes the status quo as an excuse), especially since the data easy to obfuscate. Personally, I’m most interested in seeing how people respond to it all, the “developing” economies in particular.
YOU KNOW, I HAVE NOT READ ALL THE POSTS, BUT IN MY OPINION SMALL DISAGREEMENTS ARE NOT WORTH SPENDING ENERGY ON! WE ARE AT A POINT IN CIVILIZATION WHERE WE HAVE THE ABILITIES TO GROW INTO SOMETHING BETTER AND YET WE SIT HERE AND QUIBBLE OVER THINGS WHICH ARE IRRELEVANT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL NUMBER TO SURVIVE AFTER 100 YEARS, SO GET YOUR MINDS IN AND AT A HIGHER POINT OF THINKING.
1
Scout, you have swallowed the wrong pill. There will be nothing to see here at this website until you give up what I believe I can say everyone here considers the purest form of fantasy: abiotic oil. You may as well be at a medical convention handing out brochures on eugenics.Some things that are facts from my perspective:
1) No one has been able to really explain accurately how much oil resources are available in the earth's crust.
2) We know they are not "fossil fuels" and did not come from decayed animal/plant life - which actually made no sense to me when I first heard it ages ago, but I swallowed the pill anyway (among several others)
3) The best and most logical position I can find is that oil/gas is not being depleted but that the amounts are likely vast and untapped. Russians ironically have away of cutting through crap like climate change and peak oil..They have likely put the most unrestrained effort into understanding it.
I did not mean to appear arrogant - I guess it just comes natural.–smile. I did not think I have YOU ALL figured out - just most of the posts had a certain air about them. It is certainly about more than Peak Oil - I think the site is about alot more than that… The Peak oil post caught my attention and that’s where I started… Like I said - no one here or anywhere else has even come close to proving the remaining oil is scarce or endangered - it’s sort of like worrying about the sun becoming a red giant - to me anyway. No one here has shown data that I have seen coming close to conclusive about a real shortage - Rather the evidence goes the other way. I still believe in being conservation minded despite the failure to show a scarcity. I don’t think I enagaged in a firearms dialogue - Protection of life and property is integral to any solution if one is serious it is not about “the firearm” but about the person. I was commenting about a particular persons comment about buying a gun - not the gun… Good gun and shooting thread are abundant - not at all why I’m here. -
Google “Peak Oil” for yourself and start reading. I don’ t need you or anyone to “take me seriously”. I have nothing to prove .I can show you a bunch of links based on my reading, but I am not writing a research paper here, I am having a conversation. ( or trying anyway)
I stated a few facts on my reply ( at least as I see them now) Can you refute them with or without writing a research paper? Just tell me why oil is so scarce. Should be simple if it’s such a forgone conclusion. And tell me why you think exploration is so tightly limited by the government… What do they not want people to know? – sounds like anti fact-finding. I am not disregarding Mr Martenson… I just don’t see his case in this topic as very compelling -not nearly as compelling as say … this one http://educate-yourself.org/cn/oilnotfossilbfuel29sep05.shtml
OK there’s a link.
Would that be the same medical convention full of doctors and pharmaceutical companies, and bureaucrats advising us to live on a diet mostly composed of sugar, heavily processed rancid oils, and artificial flavoring in order to stay healthy - but if that does not work (and it won’t) we have all sorts of drugs to treat your diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure, CAD, cancer and depression from living on our government sanctioned diet - and don’t worry our drugs are cheap (cause taxpayers subsidize them)… But then instead of dying of old age, we’ll make you hopeful and put you through countless procedures, chemical treatments, radiation scans (that industry needs your money too)… ?? Not to change the subject, but your medical analogy is very timely and relates well to the matter at hand. This seems to be a common strategy at this site – I wonder where I have seen this before? You and others insist proof from me on my opinion, while you casually say I will find nothing here until I give up something you say I believe in… I did not know I “believed” in it. Either it’s a fact or not… All along very little logic and no real rationale in the information as presented … Just a lot of “everyone knows this and everyone knows that”. I could just as gratuitously state that your opinion is fantasy too. The whole fossil thing is actually pretty fantasy-like to me… Major flawed argument by you- just because 9 out 10 people here say X, does not make X true… .
Classic…
Here’s an article I find very well referenced http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6261 Quote
So scant is the evidence to support Heinberg and other western pro-fossil fuel theorists that in researching his article ‘The Evidence for Limitless Oil and Gas’ (Digital Journal), Bill Jencks reveals,“I searched the internet including Google Scholar and there seems to be no ‘absolute proof’ or support from direct modern research for the Biogenic Theory of oil and gas formation. This theory—for want of a better word—seems to be greatly ‘assumed’ by geologists throughout geological research.”Unquote
I just remembered we have at work a Russian-American engineer who used to work in the petroleum industry – I will get that angle/opinion on this question next week.
I don’t see a concocted problem being used as camoflage for worldwide manipulation of energy and ‘people control’ as a “small disagreement.” What “better things” would you like us to grow into by stiffling debate and open dialogue?
And what is your basis of estimate for the number of survivors in 100 years?
What is your “higher point of thinking” ?
I know what mine is and “it” makes me able to discuss this subject without fear of the future, or anything for that matter - including your ALL- CAPS typing…