Past Peak Oil - Why Time Is Now Short

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http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-17/deus-ex-machina-will-economic-collapse-save-us-climate-catastrophe 
Deus ex Machina: Will economic collapse save us from climate catastrophe?

by Dan Allen

“I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen. …We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” – Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/02/04/203650/chu-were-looking-at-a-scenario-where-theres-no-more-agriculture-in-california-part-2/

“[W]ith 6% per year decrease of fossil fuel CO2 emissions [beginning in 2012]…[g]lobal temperature relative to the 1880-1920 mean would barely exceed 1°C and would remain above 1°C for only about 3 decades. …[Only] this scenario provides the prospect that young people, future generations, and other life on the planet would have a chance of residing in a world similar to the one in which civilization developed.” – James Hansen, http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf

“A reduction in [oil] supply of only a few percentages could create difficulties throughout the entire system. Further reductions could lead to a complete failure of critical systems.” – Rick Munroe, http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-13/review-bundeswehr-report-peak-oil-section-22-tipping-point-nov-2010

Summary: A new paper by NASA’s James Hansen suggests that immediate and drastic declines (ca. 6% annual) in industrial CO2 emissions are required to avoid catastrophic climatic destabilization. As no realistic political solution exists for such immediate CO2 reduction, prospects for a livable future have now become dependent on a single back-breaking option: rapid global economic collapse. And in `Deus ex machina’ style, we may get it just in time…

 

Paper here:         http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf

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Hats off to Dan Allen.  Very readable, concise writing.

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Indeed, the Dan Allen article in the Energy Bulletin was very good, if sobering. 
It seems that in every direction there is a cliff awaiting us.  That we will eventually go over one of them is inevitable but which one and when is unknowable.

And so, we are left to prepare best we can and get on with our lives in the meantime.

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from ASPO-USA's Peak Oil Review,
4 July 2011 http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2011/07/review-july-4-2011/
Gasoline shortages developed across the UAE last week as Emirates National Oil Company, a Dubai-based refiner, shut down gas stations in Sharjah after running short of supplies. Much of the problem is due to government policies that require gasoline to be retailed at well below market prices across the region. Demand for oil products by Middle Eastern oil exporters has been increasing by 5 percent a year, outrunning local refining capacity and forcing governments to import large amounts of oil products at world prices. While national oil companies may be able to extract oil at a marginal cost of a few dollars a barrel, imported gasoline and diesel is going to run closer to $100. Building more refining capacity will be very expensive; last week Kuwait approved a new refinery that will cost $14 billion.
The last few weeks have seen what appears to be a substantial increase in electricity and liquid fuels shortages across many parts of the world. The common theme behind these shortages is higher prices for liquid fuels and hot, dry weather which is reducing hydro generated power and increasing the demand for air conditioning. Brent oil prices that have now been above $100 a barrel for the last six months are placing a strain on many poorer nations that can no longer afford to import enough oil to run power stations.
Theft of electrical power is endemic in much of the underdeveloped world leaving many power companies without the revenue to pay for increasingly expensive fuel. In many countries, a paradox is developing in which widespread, lengthy blackouts are in some cases saving fuel for power stations, but at the same time increasing the demand for diesel fuel to keep essential utilities, factories and computerized offices running. Last week several new or worsening situations were reported. In Mongolia, which until recently had only a diesel crisis due to the ban on exports by its only neighbors, Russia and China, is now facing a gasoline crisis. Power cuts in Tanzania, where 70 percent of the power comes from hydro, are up to 12 hours a day for an indefinite period. Japan has now issued an official order that large power users in the service areas of the Tokyo and Tohoku power companies must cut their usage by 15 percent.
Japanese car manufactures are stopping production on Thursday and Friday. Nissan says it will shift production to the weekend when more power is available Jordan's electric company which was dependent on cheap natural gas from Egypt ran into troubles when the pipeline was blown up for the third time and the company was forced to turn to expensive imported oil. Botswana and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are facing shortages of electricity and natural gas respectively as temperatures fall. Nigeria is dealing with growing kerosene shortages and longer blackouts. In Nigeria the electric company is increasing prices to cope with revenue shortfalls from lower production. Energy shortages in Pakistan continue without end. There are near-daily protests against the blackouts, and a CNG shortage has cut bus service in many regions.
Gasoline is in short supply. Last week, Tehran, in an effort to supplant US influence in Pakistan, offered to sell the country electricity. The offer came at the same time Iran's electric company reported that it was about to close 15 thermal power plants because of a fuel shortage. While some of these shortages will be short-lived, others are systemic stemming from the rising energy consumption by a growing world running into the limits to growth