Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/reflections-on-2025-and-predictions-for-2026-economic-pain-tech-overreach-and-political-fire/
Welcome to the new year. We awoke this morning to reports of silver hitting $80 in China, $95 in Kuwait, and $130 in Japan! Meanwhile, the COMEX spot price is sitting at $71…
We hope you enjoy this special edition of the Daily Digest as we look back on 2025 and ahead to what 2026 may bring.
On that note, the Peak Team would like to wish all our readers a happy, informed, and resilient New Year.
A Look Back at 2025
Higher education institutions identified numerous items as racist, including concepts like merit and capitalism, events such as Kamala Harris’s 2024 election loss, groups like police and pro-life Christians, medical practices like pregnancy care, people ranging from conservatives to white individuals, places like the British countryside, policies including opposing DEI, subjects like math and chemistry, and words such as “field.” This list reflected ongoing debates about equity and cultural sensitivities in academia.
Economic pressures intensified as affordability became a central concern for voters, with consumers facing record-high costs for healthcare, groceries, vehicles, and homes. Household debt reached $18.6 trillion, while 67 percent of workers lived paycheck to paycheck, and 75 percent reduced spending in other areas to afford food. Restaurant closures hit a record in Washington D.C. with 92 shutdowns, and Tyson Foods closed a Nebraska plant, laying off 3,200 workers amid fears of turning the town into a ghost town. General Motors announced 1,140 permanent job cuts in Michigan due to slow electric vehicle adoption. Overall, U.S. employers reported nearly 1.2 million job cuts, and farmers faced the worst downturn in 50 years, with the cattle herd at its lowest in 75 years. Natural disasters caused $120 billion in global economic damage, national debt surpassed $38 trillion amid warnings of an “everything bubble” bursting, and global debt reached $337 trillion. However, Wall Street underestimated market returns for the third straight year, with the S&P 500 nearing a 20 percent gain despite high valuations at a trailing P/E of 26 and Shiller CAPE near 39.
Satisfaction with U.S. direction dropped to 24 percent from 70 percent in 1999, over half of nations were involved in conflicts, silver prices rose from $30 to over $70 per ounce, crypto losses totaled $800 billion in November, 77 percent of consumers had product issues, earthquakes of magnitude 5.0+ hit 494 in a 30-day period, U.S. researchers created a 100 percent lethal bird flu in mammals, foreign students in U.S. colleges numbered 1.2 million, McDonald’s cheeseburgers averaged $3.15 from $1 in 2019, median home affordability required double the 2019 income, living the American Dream requires roughly $5 million over the course of a lifetime, Christians faced persecution in over 50 percent of nations, fertility rates fell below replacement in over half of countries, and 49 percent of Americans expected nuclear war within 10 years.
Technological and societal shifts accelerated, with AI influencing areas like sermon writing for two-thirds of church leaders and relationships for 20 percent of high school students. Developments included AI mRNA for cancer announced by Trump and Larry Ellison, wearables promoted by RFK Jr. for health monitoring, and electronic pills for medication compliance discussed by Albert Bourla. Progress toward digital ID advanced, with real ID requirements for travel starting May 7 and penalties for non-compliance from February, alongside bills like the Kids Off Social Media Act banning under-13s from platforms and restricting algorithms for under-17s. Surveillance expanded via systems like Flock Safety’s AI cameras tracking vehicles nationwide. In the UK, arrests for online “hate crimes” occurred without specifying offenses, and plans emerged to eliminate jury trials for some cases, allowing magistrates to sentence up to two years without appeal. China-style social credit systems were highlighted as models, linking behavior to access and penalties.
Judicial activity marked a contentious year, with federal courts issuing landmark rulings on Trump policies. The Supreme Court limited nationwide injunctions in response to challenges on birthright citizenship, upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-related interventions for minors, allowed states flexibility on pornography regulation and Planned Parenthood defunding, and stayed blocks on troop bans for gender dysphoria. Tensions arose over deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, with judges blocking actions and prompting impeachment calls from Trump, alongside complaints against judges for overreach. The court also required disbursement of foreign aid but indicated potential overturn of precedents limiting presidential firings, amid over 20 emergency appeals on tariffs, employee terminations, and injunctions.
Political violence surged, exemplified by Charlie Kirk’s assassination, while search trends highlighted Charlie Kirk, KPop Demon Hunters, Labubu figures, iPhone 17, One Big Beautiful Bill Act, New York mayor Zohran Mamdani, DeepSeek AI, government shutdown, FIFA Club World Cup, and tariffs. Epstein files ranked high in news searches, though heavily redacted, with a million more documents discovered.
Echoing this, ZeroHedge’s annual review of its most-read articles captured the year’s dominant themes among its audience: massive tariffs and trade policy shifts under Trump (including “Liberation Day” market turmoil and subsequent recovery), AI mania and bubble concerns (highlighted by China’s DeepSeek launch and Nvidia volatility), surging precious metals amid fiscal collapse fears, deep state corruption exposed via DOGE (e.g., USAID scandals, auto-payments to terrorist groups, and exploding bureaucrat net worths), political assassinations and leftist radicalization (centered on Charlie Kirk’s killing), basis trade blowups, Minnesota Somali-linked fraud, and persistent Epstein-related revelations—underscoring a year defined by political upheaval, monetary debasement, technological hype, and eroding trust in institutions.
Lastly, global demographics showed Asia dominating births, with India at 23 million and China at 8.7 million, followed by Nigeria and Pakistan. Overall, world population growth continued amid resource strains. In the U.S., life expectancy fell to its lowest since 1996, 42 percent of Generation Z reported mental health diagnoses, 70 percent of adults took at least one pharmaceutical drug, and suicide occurred every 11 minutes. Food insecurity nearly doubled since 2021, with 10 percent of the global population hungry nightly.
Predictions for 2026
As is to be expected, commentators are ringing in the new year with their predictions for 2026.
S&P 500 targets range from a low of 4 percent return (BofA) to 15 percent (Deutsche Bank), median at 9.3 percent to 7500, amid risks like stretched valuations, optimistic earnings of $282 per share, potential slowdowns, and fragile setups requiring perfect conditions. Lance Roberts warns of limited returns, urging lower expectations, reduced exposure to high-valuation sectors, focus on quality companies, increased fixed income, cash holdings, and avoidance of narratives. He outlines four scenarios:
- Optimistic multiple expansion to 8,185 (18 percent gain)
- Neutral at 7,338 (6 percent)
- Slowdown to 6,209 (-10 percent)
- Recession to 5,080 (-26 percent), driven by factors like consumer debt, sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts, optimistic earnings, narrow market leadership, and geopolitical risks.
Doug Casey forecasts dollar decline toward intrinsic value with exchange controls, chaos from Fed monetizing debt and depressing rates, higher gold and silver, mining shares in a major bull market, long positions in under-owned commodities like grains and energy. He expects no world war due to ammunition shortages, more civil wars and regional conflicts, potential EU collapse, eventual U.S. central government dissolution like the Soviet Union, and restrained immigration to balance resources.
Ed Dowd predicts explosions in Google searches for “force majeure,” as contract clauses excusing obligations due to uncontrollable events like epidemics become prominent.
Gail Tverberg anticipates uneven downturns from resource shortages and debt limits, with k-shaped economies worsening, oil prices drifting lower from reduced demand, heavy oil shortages persisting affecting tourism and islands, deflation risks in rents and wages, AI growth seizing up impacting U.S. stocks, Europe shrinking, China potentially growing via AI coal mining, U.S. avoiding worst the recession, tighter citizen controls and CBDC rationing expanding, no world war but civil conflicts, and possible EU collapse.
According to Maria Z from the Daily Pulse, technocratic systems will advance, with AI fusing with human bodies for diagnostics and mandates, potentially requiring compliance pills for insurance, and expanding from COVID-era exercises. She anticipates penalties for non-compliance with real ID via TSA, age verification laws pushing digital IDs linked to speech and banking, AI as the ultimate authority on health and behavior, programmable currencies rewarding compliance, and AI judiciary without juries. Resistance may grow, as seen in Louisiana’s block of age verification for violating free speech, though efforts like biometrics could continue. Globally, surveillance like Flock Safety will expand, mirroring China’s social credit tying scores to rights, with warnings of digital prisons preventing buying/selling without compliance, akin to biblical precursors.
Meanwhile, global optimism holds at 71 percent expecting a better year, same as 2024, with Indonesia at 90 percent, France at 41 percent, Japan at 44 percent, UK at 58 percent, and U.S. at 66 percent, per Ipsos across 30 countries.
On that note, we’ll end with the most accurate prediction of all, by Dave Collum:
Here is a list of assets I am confident will rise in 2026:
…
I would like to thank many who have helped me create this compilation.(Source)
What do you predict the year will bring? Let’s discuss!
Sources
Silver Price Anomaly: Physical Hits $130 as COMEX Paper Languishes at $71
January 1, 2026
Physical Silver $130
Physical Silver $95
Physical Silver $80
COMEX Paper Silver $71
66 Outrageous Declarations of Racism in Higher Ed for 2025
2026 Market Outlook: Valuations Temper Wall Street’s Eternal Bullishness
Valuations matter. At this stage of the cycle, you need to be more cautious—not more aggressive.
2025/2026 Digital Reckoning: AI Surveillance, Compliance Tech, and the Fight for Freedom
Societies and the global community as a whole are barreling towards a technocratic overarching system that will control every aspect of our lives.
Google Searches for “Force Majeure” Predicted to Explode in 2026
Prediction for next year: Google searches for the term “force majeure” will explode.
2025 Global Births: Asia Dominates, Africa Surges in UN Projections
In 2025, global births are expected to remain highly concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.
2026 Forecast: AI Agents Rise, Markets Bull Up, Tariffs Entrench
The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty.
Doug Casey’s 2026 Forecast: Civil Strife, Global Powder Kegs, and Precious Metal Windfalls
I’ve felt for years that the U.S. was heading toward something like a civil war.
2025 Court Clashes: Landmark Rulings and Tensions Over Trump’s Policies
The ensuing court battles have prompted tense confrontations with federal judges and reinvigorated debate about how much the third branch of government can restrain the second.
Affordability Crisis and Layoff Surge: 2025’s Defining Economic Buzzwords
The Most Prominent Buzzwords For The US Economy In 2025 Were “Affordability” And “Layoffs”
2025’s Top Google Searches: Assassinations, Demons, and Deepfakes – A Society Unraveled
The past 12 months have been so crazy, and the top search trends of 2025 certainly reflect that.
Global Optimism Steady at 71% for a Brighter 2026
According to the latest data from Ipsos, an average of 71 percent of respondents across 30 countries said they felt optimistic that their 2026 will be better than 2025.
30 Unbelievable Stats That Defined a Chaotic 2025
Gail Tverberg: Expect a Very Uneven World Economic Downturn in 2026
I expect a very uneven world economic downturn in 2026.
2025: Tariffs, AI Turbulence, Fed Facades, and Assassination Angst – ZeroHedge’s Top Stories and 2026 Crystal Ball
The most exciting and eventful rollercoaster of non-stop newsflow we have yet encountered…