Russia's Art of War with Ukraine (and Putin's Winning)

[stph]

I just read the lead article and was thinking I needed to write a (first hand experience) counter-point.  I was relieved you got to that before I did and said most of what I would have tried to say (but probably not so eloquently).

I just want to underscore a few things, based upon month on the ground in eastern Ukraine and months, also, in western Russia.

–Ukraine has historically been a vassal and BUFFER state for Russia, going back hundreds of years. Russia controlled but didn’t WANT to take Ukraine into the heart of Russia or they could have, and would have, done so long, long, ago.   To get to Moscow you pretty much need to go through Ukraine the hard way – as Napoleon and Hitler found out.  That’s the critical value of Ukraine to Russia.  

And now the US wants to take away this buffer and put missles and NATO with a few miles of Moscow?  And Putin is an “aggressor” because he won’t allow it?
NO…the US is the aggressor here. And it is a stupid, corrupt, and dangerous aggression, which was never necessary at all in any sane world.  The US IS the Great Satan here, as in almost all countries and regions of the world where we try to squeeze out “profit”, no matter the blood.

–Ukraine is possibly the most corrupt “nation” on the planet. Certainly it is the most corrupt region ever stepped foot in, and I’ve been in a lot.  MORE than 50% of the time I tried to buy anything from anyone, I was getting shortchanged or scammed or shaken down or lied on.   A real dung heap of a “country”.

–And UKRAINE is supposed to “deserve” NATO protection?  So its “democracy” can be protected?  Are you kidding me?  Yes, yes, I understand (and everyone should understand) Ukraine was very profitable for our Criminal in Chief and his family.  And apparently Hillary liked it too.  But NATO & flirting with a real war with a nuclear foe for this piece of dung?  Afghanistan made a LOT more sense.

–Russia has historically regarded itself as European and has not been friendly with China. Certainly they have had NOTHING in common with China and everything in common with greater Europe.   After the breakup of the USSR Russia went out of its way to try to rejoin Europe and become friendly with the US.

–Russia, and the majority of the Russian people, wanted to REjoin Europe and the West after the collapse of the USSR.  

–The US and European BANKSTERS, on the other hand, only wanted to manipulate, subject, and LOOT Russia.   And they did a LOT of that before Putin came along.

–The US (with help from European Banksters) is fully responsible for pushing Russia into an unnatural alliance with China.

–The same western criminals are ABSOLUTELY responsible for shipping all our technology and factories into China and creating a real monster in the process.

 

This whole thing makes me sick.  We need to take care of our enemies domestic and our banksters before they bankrupt or kill us all. 

Putin is a genius compared to Biden.

And he is also hugely benevolent compared to Biden and too many of our prior Presidents, in that he usually minimizes war – most US Presidents (and too many politicians, including Biden as a Senator) seem to really, really, really like war.

The eastern territories of Ukraine ARE effectively Russian.  The majority of the people there are ethnic Russian. Speak Russian.  Follow Russian culture.  etc.

The western territories of Ukraine are SLAVIC.

The two NEVER belonged in the same “country”. They have next to nothing in common and Ukraine DOES NOT REPRESENT the eastern Ukrainian people.

I’ve been saying for 15 years that Ukraine SHOULD be split so that REAL stability and real democracy might have a chance. 

And now Putin has just done what should have been done at least half a century ago. He should be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. (but don’t hold your breath for that commonsense development)

---

Oh, wow. I ran on again.  I guess I have an opinion, and more than a little inside perspective, on this one.  No wonder they won’t have me on CNN.

[callisto]

Another perspective, from Matt Kratter. I follow his youtube channel for stock market updates. He has an interesting theory that the recent developments with Russia may be part of an economic war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J26Uln6r5gA
Summary of a possible theory from this video, if I understood it correctly:
Russia and China see a weak US which can be attacked economically.
As a result of Russia’s recent actions, oil prices remain high.
China can also continue to keep manufacturing prices high by blaming “supply chain disruptions”.
Result is inflation stays high.
Another point of attack: fewer countries are using the US dollar to buy crude oil.
Less demand for petrodollars ultimately means less demand for US Treasuries, so the Fed is the buyer of last resort for these Treasuries.
Which puts the onus on the Fed to keep printing and monetizing US government deficit spending.
In the long term inflation stays high.

[kendacoach]

I’m definitely a lurker around here, but feel compelled to comment on this one. I find it interesting, and disturbing, that a few people are considering this article a “last straw” in a load of disappointing commentary, coverage, and content on PP, over a time period of years as stated. If this article, among the many, many others, and also the videos that are presented for your perusal and consumption, free or subscribed, is the sticking point for you, I feel sad for you. I personally have gained greatly from the content, and sometimes even more the comments from many of the members of this site. Do I agree with everything and everyone on this site? Absolutely not. I read all with an open mind (as much as I can) and filter according to my mental framework. This is also not the only place I get information.
The comment “I’m running out of hope” concerns me because this site should not be anyone’s “hope” in life. I think it’s a great help to me; I can’t speak for others. Also, those that are disappointed in the content being unbiased, not relevant, not complete, etc., feel free to enlighten the rest of us.
Richcabot at least presented a counterpoint, with what I assume was some research and some opinion. If you have issue with anything posted in articles, videos, or comments, you are also welcome to post counterpoint facts or opinions, and we would welcome the discussion. We are all human here ( I assume :P), and won’t catch everything, so if you can fill in some gaps in our knowledge, I for one would love to hear from you.
Thank you Chris and PP community for all the insight I have gained from this collective.

[stph]

No, actually I am saying it is laughably shallow and naive.  The person who wrote it must have gotten his info from CNN or equivalent and has ZERO personal experience nor competence to even voice an opinion.

He hasn’t done his homework.  And he either doesn’t know how ignorant and propaganda-like his narrative is, or he doesn’t care.

 

[mike-from-jersey]

Stph,
You wrote:

And now the US wants to take away this buffer and put missles and NATO with a few miles of Moscow? And Putin is an "aggressor" because he won't allow it? NO...the US is the aggressor here. And it is a stupid, corrupt, and dangerous aggression, which was never necessary at all in any sane world.

That is the thing that bothers me the most. This started with the Maiden Revolution which was engineered by the United States. Victoria Nuland was caught on tape discussing who would be Ukraine's new leader before the so-called revolution even took place. The whole thing was a staged provocation aimed at Russia. And it was both completely unnecessary and recklessly dangerous.

[duh (dooh)]

Wow, I didn’t know Vicky “F-the-EU!” Neuland is ghost writing for PP! I’d figured Ms ‘$5B-Maiden-Revolution’ would be writing for Foreign Affairs or something. Either her, or written by someone with emotional ties to their grandparent’s immigration from 70 years ago and has been watching too much CNN.
When it comes to Ukraine I will admit I’m clueless, there’s just sooo much chaff to sift through and it’s all so tainted. Who really knows where the truth lies, other than it was a casualty shot dead long ago on the battlefield of global geo-politics. I feel for both side of the Dnieper, as they’re just pawns in the Great Game Ukraine. Another failed nation state being trampled on in new cold war for the Heartland on the World Island.
Sometimes I like to 3-D chess myself into the fetal position and I’m starting to wonder if maybe, just maybe, “What if Vlad and Xi are actually in on the Great Reset and events are going according to the re-wealthing plan?” Hmmm, ponder that one for awhile. On the bright side I’ll end up owning nothing and I’ll be happy.

[richcabot]

I don’t believe Putin will ever attempt to take over a region by force. I think he understands that colonialism is a net negative. I think he’s also a patriot in the true sense of the word. He wants to bring the ethnic Russians back into Russia. The problem he faces is Stalin displaced so many people that there are many pockets of mixed peoples throughout the former Soviet Union. There really isn’t a good solution to that. There’s a lot of (justifiable) ill will among many of the former satellite countries (like Poland and western Ukraine) that haunts Russia, making his search for solutions even more complex.
I also think a lot of what the former Soviet states think they are going to get from latching onto the EU and NATO will be a mirage as the effects of resource limitations become more pronounced. Countries like Hungary may find that leaving NATO for Russia becomes quite attractive. The feasibility of leaving the EU and NATO is another story.

[kleymo]

This analysis from last month is still spot on. It is also not polemical. https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

[tomfortin]

Funny how the US and MSM make such a big deal about the Donbas getting independence, a logical solution to the bombardment of the territories by the Ukie forces (as they ignore the Minsk agreement) since 2014 that has killed 14K +people. Yet the US and MSM support the independence of Hong Kong and Taiwan. US also supports annexation of Golan heights, West Bank and Jerusalem. Huh??? The Donbas citizens are not terrorized, they are celebrating their freedom from the nut cases in the Ukraine government who has been demonizing Russian speakers since the US promoted the coup to topple a democratically elected government in 2014. ( remember John McCain giving out sandwiches and cookies in the Maidan? Or Victoria Nuland’s conversation wth the US Ukie ambassador planning who will be in the NEW improved Ukie government?) This list is just propaganda and you should ashamed to post it, especially with the critical last sentence removed that really exposes the intent of the post. here it is “Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world. These resources are why Russia is chomping at the bits to take it.” What bs.
 

[isecurityguru]

Thanks dreinmund You sum up very well what the controversy is all about.
Part of me hesitate to have this article published. Obviously, a war is going on, emotions are high and there will be thousands of ways to misinterpret the intention of this article. There is a high risk of stirring a hornet’s nest by publishing it.
Personally, I don’t have a position regarding this conflict. Europe is too far away from me and I don’t want to take a position of who is the bad guy or the good guy. Being far away has the advantage making it easier to remain objective, I guess.
I have heard arguments of why Putin is the bad guy and this position is all over the mainstream media in the Western world. I have also heard the argument from the Russian side. The Russian ambassador to Australia had spoken about Russia’s perspective last month and I took the time to listen to most of what he said.
Regardless of who’s the good guy or the bad guy, my most important objective is to explore and speculate on what the possible outcome will be. In other words, the purpose is my attempts at forecasting, rather than to decide who should do what based on who is the good/bad guy. To do that, I have to try and remain as objective as possible, which is very difficult to do when the mainstream media is holding the position that Putin is the bad guy.
So, this article is my observations of the narratives that are happening on mainstream media and social media and my attempts to make some sense from the chaos. As such, it is most accurate to say that this article is descriptive.
I don’t have a position of who should win in this conflict, or who is the bad/good guy. My position is that human lives are the most important and that the less people die or get injured, the better.

[stph]

Mike:   During his news address, Putin spoke a bit about how, early after the disbanding of the USSR, he had expressed a desire for Russia to join NATO but was rebuffed.

Rebuffed?

He conjectured this was because the US was (IS) frightened of the competition.  I’ve been thinking about that comment for several days and, although we will probably never know the complete story, IT FITS PERFECTLY.

It fits with the fact that the Russian people regard themselves as European. And western.

It fits with the fact that (at least as of 2008) Russians I met in my travels were clearly interested in a much closer relationship and, indeed, friendship with the US and US citizens – yet still had their culture and their pride (I got to see sections of the Hermitage which were not even open to the general public visitors; Russia has an immensely rich and powerful cultural heritage still, in spite of the long, destructive period under communism).

It fits with the fact that they’ve been ravaged by war and revolution for just too long.  The idea that they want another war with Europe, or really anyone, is just not plausible when you consider what they’ve been through and survived.  And that their culture is still, to a very real extent, Christian.  (At least as much as any “western” country is still Christian, but probably more … as evident when you visit one of their cathedrals in use).

And it also fits with the monstrosity that the US has become, as we fell straight away into the trap Eisenhower and other intellectuals warned us about with the “military industrial complex” and the (Rothchild) “bankster” system.

The US couldn’t be in a real partnership of any sort.  That would get in the way of the raping, pillaging, bankstering, etc.  You know…the ersatz “business” and ersatz “capitalism” and “democracy” we use as a front for every new exploit.

Anyway, I think Putin spoke more than a little truth at his news conference.   And I DO think recognizing the two eastern RUSSIAN-CULTURE regions as independent countries was correct, brilliant, and an offer of peace – rather than of war.

If we had a real President of the people, and a real government as established under the law, and a real media, with REAL schools (trying to teach people to think correctly), that would be clearly recognized.  And then, maybe, we could reverse this disasterous course of pushing Russia to ally with China.  CHINA is the alien culture here.  China and the WEF and our own Neo-cons have a lot in common spiritually/value-wise.  I see Putin as probably the best thing that could have happened to Russia and the world, given the bad alternatives and what the US/European “Powers That Be” would allow.

 

[mike-from-jersey]

Stph,
You wrote:

Anyway, I think Putin spoke more than a little truth at his news conference. And I DO think recognizing the two eastern RUSSIAN-CULTURE regions as independent countries was correct, brilliant, and an offer of peace -- rather than of war.

I, also, think Putin did the right thing, if only to protect innocent people who were being killed for no reason. But I also think that it was a "crossing of the Rubicon" for him. I think Putin has finally come to the conclusion that negotiation with West is pointless. And that means that the whole situation has become extremely dangerous.

[dreinmund]

The US couldn't be in a real partnership of any sort. That would get in the way of the raping, pillaging, bankstering, etc. You know....the ersatz "business" and ersatz "capitalism" and "democracy" we use as a front for every new exploit.

Amen. An honest look at the foreign policies of the US vs. Russia in the past twenty years leaves no doubt who the aggressor is - the USSA. Our country’s meddling in and manipulating of other countries is unprecedented. Russia today might not be a poster child for democracy and free markets - but for Pete’s sake - neither is the US anymore. We have allowed to become a caricature of what the founding fathers had in mind. If you don’t like that honest look in the mirror - well, feel free to label it one more conspiracy theory.

[davedd]

This article produced one of the most intriguing analyses posts in the shortest amount of time ever. Consider it a training for PP’s immune system. I hope that everyone reads the articles, and the posts; talking about “common knowledge” and “redpilling”…

[andy-in-the-sun]

Yeah… the article is like a “vaccination” (but one that actually works) against Anglo-saxon BS propaganda. I am glad, throughout all commenters I am detecting a solid immune response.

[rpstemple (Scot Observer)]

Rich Cabot and others – All very well put.
Our MSM, which this article frequently quotes is screaming “Putin wants war” – “Putin wants to invade Ukraine”. Does he really? I don’t know what Putin thinks or wants, but I get the impression that is much more level headed and a much better grasp of reality than any our current leaders in the West.
Grant Williams in his November edition of his newsletter ‘Things that make you go Hmmm…’ (behind a paywall) wrote an article ‘Putin on the Ritz’. This article was prompted by a speech followed by a question-and-answer session given by Putin to the ‘Valdai Discussion Club’ in October of last year. (For description of Valdai Discussion Club - https://www.g20-insights.org/think_tanks/valdai-discussion-club/ . Text of Putin’s Speech and Q & A https://www.global-review.info/2021/10/24/putins-speech-at-the-plenary-session-of-the-18th-valdai-club/ ) In the article Grant gives a fairly detailed biography and career history of Vladimir Putin and quotes sections of Putin’s speech. He also pointed out some salient bits of information about Russia.
Quoting from the article (hope Grant will forgive me for pinching his work).

“Russia is by far the world’s biggest country (Fig. 2). The second-largest, China, is a little over half its size.”

“Russia is also the world’s richest country.Not wealthiest. Richest.”. “Russia, a country whose own riches dwarf those of its nearest rival (Fig. 4)”.

However ….

“….when it comes to population, Russia drops to ninth in the world rankings (Fig. 3)”.

Therefore Russia has by far most ‘Natural resources per capita’ in the world. Back to the Voldai Discussion Club speech and Q and A session which prompted Grant’s article. Grant writes:

“On October 22nd, that leader took the stage at the Valdai Discussion Club, as he has done each year since its formation, and addressed the nation. He then answered a series of questions from ‘the public’. I put those words in quotation marks to assuage the skeptics who undoubtedly feel the questions were almost certainly staged. They may well have been, but that’s not the point here. The point is that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin spent three hours answering those questions in a lucid, coherent, convincing way.(my emphasis) Sorry, folks, but he looked like a leader. Can you imagine the kind of car crash we’d witness were Boris Johnson to spend three hours answering questions (staged or not)? Or Justin Trudeau? Or Emanuel Macron? How about Joe Biden or the Fella Down Under, Scott Morrison?”

I am sure Putin knows his history. He will be a aware as a central continental country, Russia has been invaded many times Mongols, French (Napoleon) Germans (Hitler). Given that Russia is the richest country in the world in resources available to it, how many other countries would like to get their hands on access to those resources. (The USA? China?). I have noted that problems in Ukraine only really erupted, when the West started to push for Ukraine to become a NATO or EU member. Given Russia’s history, was a possibly hostile aligned member on her border going to be tolerated? (Would the USA have accepted Mexico as a member of the Warsaw Pact? Not likely by the way they treated Nicaragua when a non aligned regime achieved power). As Stph (#30) Russia is culturally an European country and historically has a lot of affinity to Europe. Also where is Russia’s longest border? It’s with her Asian neighbours who also happen to have the largest populations. The biggest threat to Russia long term has to be from her Asian neighbours, yet our Western ‘leaders’, determined to have Putin and Russia as the ‘baddie’, have pushed Russia into an alliance with China. The big questions that arises from this ‘Crisis in Ukraine’ (and other distractions) is this. What is it that the western governing group (who ever they are) do not want us to look at, notice or see? (Here in the UK mentions in the media of the goings on in 10 Downing St last year seemed to have disappeared.) What are they smuggling in while we are all being distracted (that they have not already done in the last two years)?

[andy-in-the-sun]

I am following Putin’s moves with my left eye since about 10 years.
Beside that what you said, which I fully support, I have to point out that Putin is a solid advocate of the traditional Christian culture. This puts him at full confrontation with our woke leaders throughout the west. And of course their henchmen like Soros & co. And so he is very well aware about how the west plays the cultural divide and rule game.
For example can you remember when he forbid and forced closure of all of Soro’s various NGO offices throughout Russia? But, as far as I recall it was around 2014/15 when Putin gave a scratching speech in the Duma about the degeneration of the west with respect to their root culture.
What followed was fire & brimstone out of thousands of throats of the western media. Since then I noticed the propaganda against him intensified. Nevertheless, he repeated his stance a few times not giving one inch to the woke.
Based on this observations I have the feeling that there is a “club” that has the idea of gaining control over the western masses by confusing them into madness with all the liberal and woke stuff. Think about the 68th and their children. It somehow swirls in my head around that a “club” highjacked the movement (68th) to sell us the advantages of discarding our traditional morals. With this disconnection from the traditional moral framework all kind of manipulations are possible - and we can see it now. (think about not feeling morally wrong printing trillions of fake money…)
Anyhow, what I feel is that this “club” would somehow get along with Putin in one way or another if he would join their “religion”… but he is not buying into this BS and that drives them mad.
compared to other western hypocrite leaders he is putting his feet where his mouth is. So for example privately he is routinely visiting the Orthodox Monastery of Simonopetra at Mount Athos (Greece).

[davefairtex]

h/t John Soloman
Turns out, there have been Russian forces in these regions of the Ukraine for the past 8 years. How can it be an “invasion” when there have been Russian forces there for nearly a decade? I can see it being a “reinforcement” - but if we didn’t have a cow over it before, why are President Grandpa’s Handlers deciding to have an entire herd of cows over it now?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/21/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-russia-and-ukraine/ But I want to take a step back here and point out something that may be lost on people who have not been paying attention to this conflict throughout most of the last eight years, which is that Russia has occupied these regions since 2014. It has been Russia’s position that there are not Russian forces present in this part of the Donbas. The reality, as we pointed out on a number of occasions over these past years, has been quite different. There have been Russian forces present in these areas throughout. And so we’re going to be looking very closely at what they do over the coming hours and days, and our response will be measured according, again, to their — to their actions.

Original article: https://justthenews.com/government/security/invasion-not-new-russian-troops-have-been-stationed-donbas-eight-years-us John Soloman has all sorts of stories like this. On gettr: https://gettr.com/user/jsolomonreports

[lyonssf]

The Neocons are seeing their WW3 chance.
Evelyn Farkas, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should ask the United Nations to endorse a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine to try and take Russian air power off the board. Failing that, western aid to Ukraine will likely have to find a land route.
“Coming over land through Poland, rather than through the air or by maritime means, would be my guess,” Farkas said. “Our military can do it in a way that minimizes the risk, but clearly, if Russia controls the airspace over Ukraine, that’s a problem.”
https://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-studying-fallback-supply-lines-215239880.html
 

[lyonssf]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KD6e0FKRxlU