Yes, Russian forces have been in these parts of Donbass for eight years fighting for the separatists after the Maiden revolution. Ukrainians point out that the invasion happened then and extra forces are flowing in now. Something like 14,000 people have died in that war. Ukrainians are sick of it and want the Russians out. Notions that the natives welcome the Russians is fiction.
Doug-
So rumor has it, there was a President prior to the Hitleresque figure of the Bad Orange Man. Lets see, what was his name? Obiden? Something.
Anyhow, this Obiden guy said we should let Russia alone, it was just a regional power, and he put up with Russia actually invading Donetsk - and basically occupying them - back in 2014. And nobody said boo. Literally nobody cared. This seemed like a sane policy to me. “Not in our strategic interest.” After all, who wants to be on the hook to support some corrupt government that looked a whole lot like South Vietnam?
Fast-forward to today. We have a massive self-inflicted inflationary problem (Build Back Better!) combined with dreadfully high oil prices that needs to be blamed on someone. And that person - is Putin. For “invading” the place where he’s had troops since Obiden was President in 2014.
Except - as we know - Wag the Dog - only way to stay in power, with dreadfully low approval ratings due to worst-inflation-in-40-years, mandates that just injure and kill for a virus no worse than the flu, and an open southern border that serves to lower working class wages across the country. (Workers of the World, Unite! And if you do, I’ll call you a domestic terrorist and freeze your freaking bank account!)
The goal of this non-Invasion? “You Can’t Change Horses in Mid-Stream.”
Obiden got $500 bucks from me, a whole bunch of people were droned, a number of countries were destroyed, and no banksters went to jail. Literally, this was worse than the execrable Bush II. Who has now been sainted, in retrospect, by the current gang in charge. Whiplash!
But at least Obiden got the $60 million book deal. Yay Obiden! Not everyone came out a loser.
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some off you genuinely would get me out to the poll
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While Biden and co. head off to their bunkers for post WW3 planning
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The threads here have gotten mysteriously quiet since the invasion of Ukraine started. That may be because just about everyone posting on these threads got it really wrong. There were a few exceptions: Mark2682’s list of Ukrainian resources may not be entirely accurate, but the central point is correct. That is, Ukraine is resource rich, particularly in agricultural land.
You would all do well to read the article linked by Kleymo. It may not be totally accurate either, but it is a serious treatment of the issues. https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/
But, now we are three days into the invasion. We don’t know what the outcome is going to be, but there are some serious misconceptions here that are taking serious hits.
Putin may be a 3d chess player, but perhaps he would be wise to take some checkers lessons from Uncle Joe. Joe is being credited with marshalling NATO and much of the rest of the developed world to support Ukraine. He has come up with a lot of sanctions that may or may not eventually cause Putin pain, but are certainly now casting him in a KGB thug light. But, bottom line Putin is isolated from much of the rest of the world.
Zelensky turns out to be tactically formidable and courageous. He and much of the leadership are standing tall and rallying the people to defend Ukraine. He is something of an inspirational figure. Ukraine really believes in democracy and is willing to defend it.
The invasion is not the walk-in-the-park Putin (and most of the commenters here) thought it would be. He may yet prevail thanks to overwhelming military power, but it’s going to hurt him in support by Russians. The body bags will soon be going home and the people are already braving arrests by taking to the streets. Most Russians see little point to invading their neighbors, to whom many are related or friends.
So, we are left with a war of choice started by Putin that no one else wants. Ukrainians and Russians are dying, although the numbers are unclear thanks to the fog of war. It will not turn out well for anyone.
Makes me think of what the US has done around the world for my entire life. Financially or militarily controlling resource rich countries. Rulers gonna rule.
Of course, a major objective of war and diplomacy has always been resources.
As pointed out in post #35, Russia is also a resource rich country. As far as I know, their #1 resource is oil and gas. Unfortunately for them, those resources have been horribly mismanaged since at least WWII. Putin is just the latest of a long line of dictators who take more interest in personal wealth than the welfare of their citizens.
Where do I start?
This invasion is - first and foremost - a delightfully well-timed wag-the-dog operation to avoid disaster at the polls for Team Bureaucrat/Team Oligarchy this November.
To recount the recent disasters: the Afghanistan withdrawal, the awful vaccine mandates that have needlessly killed or injured hundreds of thousands - including our warfighters, the worst inflation in 40 years, Grandpa’s history of family corruption (10 held by H for the Big Guy), No Treatments For You - another half a million dead, unnecessarily - and the open Southern border. Only “War” (or the hope of war) has a faint hope of keeping his gang in charge through November. I don’t think it will work, but that appears to be the plan: swap Putin for COVID.
So - just coincidentally - we now have a War. With Mr Evil Himself, Vladimir Putin, who has very helpfully invaded at just the right time. I didn’t think he would - but my guess is, he got intel on just what the “sanctions” were going to be, and the West just refused to negotiate, and of course Grandpa looked awful with the Afghanistan disaster - nothing encourages military expansion like weakness - then Putin thought: well, I’m out of options, so let’s give it a shot.
The real issue: Team Bureaucrat/Team Oligarchy both appear to be in the tank for Xi. They all appear to have been bribed in some way. All of this has redounded to Xi’s benefit. After all, if the West is perennially an enemy of Russia, that pushes Putin into the arms of Xi. Which is very convenient for Xi, since China’s economy is 10x the size of Russia, and he’s in desperate need of resources - and Russia sure has resources.
What would I have done differently than Team Bureaucrat/Team Oligarchy?
I’d have recognized Putin’s rule over Crimea, told Ukraine to calm down, and then promised they’re not going to join NATO. As a quid pro quo, I’d ask Putin to join an informal alliance against China. This is just basic geopolitics. Which, of course, Team Bureaucrat is just unable to play, and Team Oligarchy doesn’t want to.
Now I know what Team Bureaucrat is going to say. They will gasp in horror, and exclaim that the US cannot possibly work with DICTATORS like PUTIN. Which, of course, we do all the time, around the globe, on a routine basis. And we have done this for centuries.
Right. But Team Bureaucrat has apparently been bribed. Once you leave “public service”, you go to work for Team Oligarchy. So the imperative: no working with Putin against Xi. Putin (with an economy 1/10th that of China) is the real threat.
And did I mention this war comes at a very convenient time? Young Global Leader Putin (yes, really) will allow Grandpa Joe to look “tough” and “strong” with all those sanctions (which do basically nothing - we can tell this from the market’s rally on Thursday), provide an “enemy” which will (hopefully) unite the country around Grandpa Joe and Team Bureaucrat/Team Oligarchy.
Did I miss anything?
Just FWIW - you are entirely correct - I didn’t think Putin would invade. He did. I neither like Putin, nor hate him. He too has a Team Oligarchy he has to satisfy. I could wish that the idiots in charge of “policy” in Washington could look past the next election and imagine that - just perhaps - China is a 10x bigger threat to US Nat Sec than Russia. Only because their economy is 10x the size, of course.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp
But the geniuses at State and the “intel” community just can’t do this sort of math. They just can’t. That’s because they are all looking forward to “retirement” working for Team Oligarchy here in the US. I don’t know how else to explain the pattern of deliberate official stupidity I’ve seen over the last 20 years. Seriously. People really just can’t be this stupid. There has to be something else at play.
After all, Russia is (economically) tiny, China is large, and if the West is an adversary, Putin has no choice but to use a long spoon to sup with the devil. That’s the situation we’ve set up. This is just common sense.
And just FWIW, Taiwan is about 100x more important to US Nat Sec than is - say Ukraine.
How do you think we will do as a country if Taiwan’s chip manufacturing industry is in the hands of the PRC?
The stupidity & corruption in Washington pretty much guarantees the End of Empire.
I hear Xi laughing in the distance.
So there you go. Putin invades. And Grandpa Joe throws a party.
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Ukraine really believes in democracy and is willing to defend it.Cough cough… ok Doug, that was a good one. When the board gets quiet and everyone is waiting for some entertainment… you never disappoint :D Certainly Ukraine must be a pureblood western democracy… if I look for example at the dealings with "crack pipe" Hunter and the other economical entanglements of the president. And btw… do you mind asking a Ukrainian where (right now) their central bank’s gold is? And why a (CIA ?) operation flew out the gold 8 years ago… in the middle of a dark night handled by black dressed & armed men. Ohh yes… all too typical for a real democratic country.
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Yes Dave,
It all looks me a bit like 1937 Poland again… a young new nation with an unstable (irrational & wild) leadership, some diverse ethnics, verbally supported by the Anglo-Saxon geo-strategists guided into a conflict with its much more powerful neighbor. From this perspective, Ukraine was set up as a pawn & cracker for a much bigger party… at a time when needed.
And… it really looks that certain circles decided that it’s time to “shake the box”. There is too much mess piling up over the last decade on top of the “blow the top off” financial system. And Putin might know that under certain circumstances the one who shakes first – shakes best. Whatever the truth about the covid virus is… he sees that at today’s scale of disruption… the world is reactive at best.
And that leads me to the real salmon on the table…
How do you think we will do as a country if Taiwan's chip manufacturing industry is in the hands of the PRC?Yes… I also think that this is one of the real strategic pieces on the chess board… not a pawn like Ukraine. I wrote already a half a year ago about this. For me Taiwan had, by developing a foundry that is capable to produce THE leading chips, something more in their head. They saw china coming and they knew how they think... since they are culturally nearby the same. So I am sure they looked at this not only from the perspective to make money, but also to actually fuse the western nations strategically to them. I also mentioned that Taiwan had in the 1990 the same plan with Biotech… but they didn’t succeed with that in the same way because the Biotech technology is still a hammer compared to the semiconductor needle.
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It is true that Taiwan’s semiconductor factories are world leading at the moment. But you also need to keep in mind the supply chain for those factories. They are in no way independent from Western technology. For sure there would be major supply chain disruption in complex integrated circuits if TSMC went offline. But in the medium term factories can be expanded in Western countries. Obviously at higher cost, which might be a good thing instead of the throwaway consumption we currently encourage.
It seems true that China is the big winner so far. They seem to be playing a long game while Western institutions focus on the next election cycle.
The deflationary nature of a large war seems an obvious “solution” to the current economic situation in the West. The massive transfer of wealth during the last few decades to the 1% can be hidden behind the war propaganda of how “the Russians” and “the Chinese” are destroying the economy.
Still we can hardly say the US deserves to be the dominant world power - they are leading the world toward a cliff. The US have little civilization beyond rampant consumerism, capital accumulation, and militarism. All the “foundations” of the US are old (and outdated) European ideas. Those ideas have demonstrated their shortcomings in the hyper-individualization and naïve belief in “progress” that is rampant in the West.
Chinese civilization has a more sophisticated understanding of geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_China We can only hope that China does not adopt the militarism of the West and China somehow finds its way out of the cult of personality that seems to be a worldwide fetish.
China is not chained to European ideas from the late middle ages like Western culture is. They are acutely aware of the need to surpass those Western ideas.
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Mark-
The big axis of control over the world is energy. If/when we fix the energy issue, a lot more places will have a lot more freedom.
Would the CCP be a more benign world ruler than the US? To answer this question, I just look to see how they treat their own people. Do we imagine they’ll treat the rest of the world better, or worse? My answer: “No thanks.”
If you need chapter and verse as to what I mean, I’m happy to provide it.
“Yes the US definitely does bad things. But your alternative is THAT over there.”
If we get a low cost energy system, that whole paradigm can shift. That’s my hope.
I do agree that Taiwan was pretty strategic in picking the chip industry. Not stupid, the people of Taiwan.
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The US have little civilization beyond rampant consumerism, capital accumulation, and militarism. All the "foundations" of the US are old (and outdated) European ideas. Those ideas have demonstrated their shortcomings in the hyper-individualization and naïve belief in "progress" that is rampant in the West.I have to respectfully disagree with this. You are confusing alot of things. At our core, real Americans are family people, we're working people, we live traditional values that are not outdated, they are universal. Hard work, individual liberty, capitalism, family, God, and neighborliness is timeless and speaks to the very core of human dignity. That will never change. EVER. I think you are confusing the wheeling and dealings of the global cabal that has taken control of our government, for actual America. Thats not America. Militarism, and immoral capital accumulation has really nothing to do with true America. This is an image portrayed by those who hate us and more reflects that global shit-heal class than anything else. I live in the rural northeast and everywhere I look I see mostly good people. Hard working people who want to give their kids a good life. I dont see the selfish, shallow consumerist, people that you portray and to be honest I find the description insulting. It sounds like some old, out of date soviet propaganda about what America is...being told by a bitter, ruined, and failed people. America is a great country, with great people. not because of our military or our great economic achievements but because of the heart and soul of the everyday people. Maybe you're not American and everything you heard about America was from some bitter, cynical source. You might actually consider coming here sometime and meeting some real Americans instead of mimicking some BS you heard about what we are.
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I live in the urban northeast, and I can tell you that I do find selfish, shallow, consumerist people around here. I spend time in the rural parts as well, and it’s like night and day. I think the division is more along class lines than rural urban. People who are well rewarded by the system are more likely to go along with all the crazy.
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I admit that I got it wrong too. Definitely didn’t think Russia would go beyond Donetsk and Luhansk. There are many things about this that don’t make sense to me. Some say that this is just the way crazy evil Putin rolls, but this looks very rushed and ill-considered compared to his history. I can’t help feeling that there is more going on here than meets the eye. I don’t really know anymore than anyone else, but would appreciate hearing what others think about a few things.
Why?
Putin’s stated goals are to save the ethnic Russians within Ukraine from genocide, and to de-militarize and de-nazify Ukraine. What is happening though doesn’t seem like the best way to approach those goals. Is there a different agenda? Many pundits have suggested that this is part of an effort to restore the Soviet empire. If that is what it is all about - monumental fail!
I recall that last year I saw a projection for a bumper harvest in Russia. Recently though I saw that something had gone wrong, and it turned out to be a bad harvest. Ukraine on the other hand had a great harvest. I have come to understand that some of the deepest, and most fertile soils on the planet are in this region. Could this actually be about food security?
The US negotiating position (before invasion) seemed inept as though the people involved had no understanding of the history of Russia/Ukraine or Putin. What if they did though? I’m sure that much effort has been given to psychological analysis of Putin. Could it be that they intentionally pressed his buttons to goad him into this war? I think so. I think the motivation is mainly the geopolitics of the European energy situation. That and the fact that they have had 8 years to prepare a trap.
Is Putin with the WEF, or against it? Could he be intentionally trying to weaken Russia at the behest of the planetary owners?
Strategy and tactics
The western intelligence community pretty accurately predicted and publicized Putin’s plan. You know that your opponent knows your plan, but you go ahead with it anyway?
To say that there was an intelligence failure on the Russian side is putting it mildly. It seems so wrong that it can’t be an accident. Is their intel is compromised? Do they just tell Putin what he wants to hear? Were they played?
Above all the effort has been a series of blunders. The stated mission itself doesn’t make sense - “Hey troops: we want you to kill all those neo-nazi Ukrainians, but don’t hurt any Ukrainians”. Rather than getting the world to rally against the the Ukrainian actions in eastern Ukraine before taking any military action, most of the world is now united against Russia. As I watched the Nagorno-Karabach war unfold, I concluded that we had just seen a major change in the way wars would be fought and won in the future. Think drone wars. Though one might expect the Russians to pay very close attention to this given that the conflict involved two former soviet states and that the one more closely aligned with Russia was badly beaten in a surprisingly short time, they seem to have been oblivious to the obvious. Ukraine on the other hand perceived the lesson as evidenced by their acquiring the same sort of Turkish drones that were decisive in NK. EVERYONE knew that massive amounts of anti tank and anti aircraft missiles were being sent to Ukraine, yet this too seems to escaped the notice of Russian planners. It seems that they are stuck in the previous century’s war fighting paradigm. View it in monetary terms - if I can destroy your 4 million dollar tank or aircraft along with its operators with a 4 thousand dollar missile, without risk to any personnel it’s easy to see who will prevail over time. To send massive columns of armor into that kill zone is beyond incompetent. It’s a tar baby, and they fell right into it.
What now?
If Ukraine or Russia were willing to compromise perhaps sanity could prevail. Seems so unlikely as to be out of the question.
The end of Putin? Once the full scale of the blunder is clear a regime change either by Putin falling on his sword, or by an internal coup could bring a new path for Russia. I don’t see that unless/until the situation degrades much further.
Russia could go all out. It’s blood for blood now, and admitting failure now would be appear weak. There is no doubt that Russia could prevail. They have nukes. Hopefully they are not so foolish. Should they press the conventional war to the limit they may prevail, but at what cost? If they can only win by applying overwhelming numbers against a ‘second rate’ opponent, what does that mean for their chances against NATO where they don’t have the same numerical advantage? Especially after Ukraine chews up their military. If they do go all out without correcting their strategy, they may well just lose all the more consequently appearing even weaker.
I wish I could say that I expect Russia to say “Oops our bad. Please forgive us, we’ve come to our senses now and are leaving.”, but I can’t. Instead I expect we will see an escalation. If that effort fails badly enough, we may see a change in Russia. Sadly I feel that this would be the best realistic outcome. Sadly because it’s not a real good outcome. There are no good outcomes now. We may even see a pyrrhic victory, though I don’t see a victory over the government ending the Ukrainian resistance. Win or lose against the Ukraine government, loss is the outcome overall. Either way the Russians will attempt to consolidate whatever they have taken in the more Russian friendly areas as ‘leverage’. However they will face a continuing civilian insurgency if they stay, and this will not be good for anyone directly involved. How that all plays out is highly dependent on just how Russia friendly the Ukrainians in any particular area are. I expect that is only those in the breakaway areas. Russia has so thoroughly screwed the pooch here that they may need to start worrying about how Russian (regime) friendly the Russian people are. Lose your own people’s support, and it’s all over.
Putin: Please admit your mistake. If you care about Russia as a country, you will immediately resign, submit yourself to the ICC, and attempt to exclusively shoulder the blame for this debacle before you dig a much deeper hole for you and your people (yeah right).
I realize that I didn’t address the bio lab issue. That may well be a motivation. How bad would it look if there was a smoking covid 19 gun in one of the labs that could be tied to elites. However, I don’t see that the strategy being employed matches up with that.
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Here's Christopher Bollyn's take on the lead up to current events. Not for the easily offended or faint of heart.
"Victoria Nuland was the anti-Russian "Neocon" U.S. official who was recorded telling the U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine - more than two weeks before the elected president Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown - who would be the new leaders of the Ukraine. This is clear and irrefutable evidence that Mrs. Robert Kagan of the U.S. State Department conspired to bring about illegal regime change using violence in the Ukraine, just as her husband and the Kagan family did in Iraq. The proof can be seen in the transcript of the telephone call in which she names the people who will run the Ukraine, which was posted by the BBC on February 7, 2014. Mrs. Kagan, her husband, and her in-laws all belong in prison - not running U.S. foreign policy.
Victoria Nuland (seen below with her hand in her purse) is the person who is responsible for creating the rabid anti-Russian government in Kiev and fostering the antagonistic conditions that led to the current crisis in Ukraine. Here the U.S. State Dept. officials (Jen Psaki is at the end of the table) meet with the opposition candidates. Nuland wanted A. Yatsenyuk to replace the duly-elected president - and "Yats" was installed (closest to camera).
It is necessary to understand who Victoria Nuland is in order to make sense of the aggressive anti-Russian policy that has brought this war upon us."
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