Here in EU we are scroomed. All new cars sold in Europe must be zero-emission by 2035. I would like to see a very detailed plan for the electric vehicle infrastructure. Also, how do they plan to cover all the demand for new vehicles? This is all the people in power do. Make decisions. Without thinking. Yay.
“ we never need more than an extra few percent of peakers available on standby and about 5 hours of extra total grid capacitance, rather than weeks or months”
That doesn’t feel right.
Planning for emergencies/ contingencies is a game of statistics and it’s nonlinear. Like building structures in earthquake zones, it gets exponentially more expensive to earthquake proof buildings against higher Richter scale events.
So too for power outages. Statistically things can cascade and you can have supply chain issues so for want of a capacitor part of the grid stays down longer.
So the solution is to build a bigger buffer to ensure less downtime with higher certainty.
The misconception that was posted further up was that “The capitol in the center and the districts in ever-increasing circles around it. The further you are from the center, the worst your situation is/ the poorer you are,” that is why I posted the video of the description. Fresco used the possibility of private homes in case people had issues living in apartment buildings during the transition- with the hope that people would see the advantages that the “apartment-style” buildings bring if designed attractively to have all conveniences built-in and decide to scrap individual housing… he also conceived of that idea at a time before we used up so much of our resources. So, that is probably not feasible at this time due to resource constraints. The lifestyle you propose is possibly just as utopian in the ability to achieve for 8 billion people. If you consider the level of complexity interwoven in our societies today, going back to a simpler life of the level you propose is difficult for me to conceive.
Did a little digging, and there is concrete proof (no pun intended) that industrial hemp can be leveraged to produce ‘hempcrete’.
Herewith an excerpt from a Journal of Commerce article.
Hemp waste, a new cement replacement and biofuel - constructconnect.com
Hemp waste, a new cement replacement and biofuel
“The problem of what to do with all the hemp waste that is expected to be produced caught the attention of Sudip Talukdar, an instructor in the department of civil engineering at the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT), and his wife, Krupal Pal, engineering manager at Nextleaf Solutions, a Vancouver cannabis extractor.
At the same time that Talukdar and Pal were thinking about hemp, concrete and cement producers were wondering if they could reduce their environmental impact by partly replacing cement with more sustainable materials.
Cement makes up approximately15 to 20 per cent of concrete by volume, the rest being water and aggregate.
Among the challenges facing the cement industry is how to reduce the embodied energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of manufacturing the material.
Cement production is reportedly responsible for two to three per cent of global primary energy use and approximately five per cent of man-made CO2 emissions.
In addition to looking for ways to reduce the size of their environmental footprint, cement producers were also searching for a new fuel to replace fly ash from burning coal for firing their kilns.
Fly ash is one of a number of recycled ashes and mineral powders that are byproducts of other manufacturing process and that can be used as partial cement replacement.
Substituting these materials for cement can reduce costs, lessen the environmental impact of cement production, and adjust some of concrete’s properties.
Ash from other types of local and plentiful organic materials, such as rice husks and bamboo and banana leaves, have also been used as supplementary cementing materials in some parts of the world.
Compared to other forms of biomass, hemp has a higher net calorific value, so it releases more heat when a unit quantity of the hemp is burned. All of which means that hemp waste is a potentially effective biomass and energy-yielding crop for biofuel applications.”
Hemp also has dozens of other applications, from a reliable biofuel source, to textile production, nutritional benefits, and many others."
Finally, hemp is a boon for farmers. It can be grown on poor, nutrient deficient soils, requires less water than other crops, is fast growing, and absorbs 5 X more cO2 than other plants.
If we look to nature and its processes, we may find more surprises on the way to creating a sustainable society.
First impressions Arantas seems like a 15 min city and you will own nothing and be happy. Tell me t am mistaken?
I consider ignorant people pushing bad policy decisions such as grid scale energy storage and “green energy” to be dangers to society. When their “utopia” meets the cold hard reality of physics, you will see suffering on an unimaginable scale and eventually many preventable deaths.
How many people have actually thought about what it means when the grid fails? How long will you have clean water? Those water towers are small surge volumes meant mostly to regulate system water pressure. When the power goes away, the pumps stop and the water plant “trips” offline.
What about the billions of dollars of food that will go bad when the refrigeration fails? The people pushing for the “green power revolution” are dangerous! Instead of a power revolution, there will be a political revolution. We must hold these ignorant fuks accountable for their stupid policies. They are a danger to the public if they are successful in shutting down the thermal power plants.
When the gid collapses and fails, you are not getting it back anytime soon! Even if the choice was made to restart the old thermal power plants, it may no longer be possible due to supply line issues with fuel and other consumables.
You are looking at a week minimum to restart a large light water reactor and this assumes the most favorable conditions which is highly unlikely. Many people don’t know this. Most commercial nuclear power plants in the USA cannot perform a startup without the use of a large boiler. None of them can startup without a reliable source of offsite power.
Nuclear power plants requires lot of steam for the purposes of getting the secondary plant heated up and ready for the reactor startup. You also need the offsite power to support the large motor driven pumps required to run the plant. Just to put things in perspective, the house loads at my old plant was about 40 MWe! The need for this offsite power will not go away until the main turbine and generator are synched to the grid when these house loads can then be sustained by the main generator.
This is the primary reason that I am 100% adamant that all future commercial nuclear power plants must have the ability to perform a black start and handle a full load reject without the reactor tripping. This is currently not possible with any commercial nuclear power plant in operation today.
You want to read some scary shit? Somehow get a copy of “The Black Plan” from a power plant in your area. You will understand very little of it but you should get an idea of just how long it will take to get the grid back. Unreliable power grids is not something you want to mess with because the risk of killing many people is too high.
Thanks Chris, it’s great to here the decentralised/community energy talk.
I’ve also softened to the thorium option now, as I had thought we were seeing the same end result as uranium based systems. The stand out part of that conversation, was the industry being lead away from liquid fuel to the waste laden solid fuel.
I’m also glad to hear someone else point out the corrupted peer review system, I saw it in my research project, as well as in the broader sense. I know it’s been mentioned in regard to pharma, but now in Engineering, etc.
Something I think will be part of the solution is CSP generation, using molten salt.
https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Screenshot-2023-12-02-at-10-20-15-Vast-–-Past-Projects-1701472926.5487.png The modular idea is very interesting. No not invested in them, just like the concept.
I’ve mentioned this before, I can remember having this exact conversation in shop class 1976, '77. Reagan’s & every subsequent admin’s complete dismissal of Carter’s Energy Policies has sealed the deal - 48 years of can kicking!
But why do they fail? Is there a better capitalistic option around the corner that people move on to? Do they not get the equation of personalachievementand ownership correct? What if around that corner things were much worse off? Then would you stay and support that project?
Live free or die is a good model, but it does have some assumptions, such as we each get enough land to to make that possible. We are currently way over the tips of our ski’s on that front, there will be a few loosers.
If the planet simply had 6 billion less people we wouldn’t be in a predicament.
At the same time Life Free or Die is not completely free. There are some rules and regulations we all need to follow, like sewage laws and such.
My point here is that simply a planet with a lot less people is probably the most simplistic solution. As we increase the number of people we want to support, our solutions need to get a lot more complex.
With few people we can easily feed on wild game, use hydro for energy, and harvest as much resources as we want.
If only we had developed thorium reactors sooner then there would be a lot less ecological destructionat this point.
I guess this is watch and see now. Does china start building thousands of that design? How much will they sell them for?
I bet the elites and manufacturing will buy them all up for a while.
This will be interesting to see what price point we can produce hydrogen at.
We will still have a liquids fuels crisis in our near future, and all the mal investments out there still need to fail. Nothing can stop that train wreck.
This does mean electricity and heat production will be relatively cost effective, and thus downstream processes will remain viable.
Global shipping will go away, at least for big things.
We still have this issue of ecosystems collapse and climate tipping points. Those cards may already be delt.
For now I guess long bitcoin, until AI breaks the crypto.
Long copper? Also seems like a safe bet.
-Travis
Interesting conversation but…
It could have ended with the discussion of thorium reactors. Even here, things were beginning to go a bit sideways. Thorium reactors have been studied for decades and, contrary to statements in the video, there have been numerous demonstration and exploratory reactors built. The video makes it seem like thorium reactors promised a golden age but were squashed by the evil elites pursuing their nefarious self-serving agenda. The bottom line is that thorium reactors have their advantages over uranium reactors, but uranium reactors were simply better-understood, deliver more power, and the infrastructure to manufacture the fuel was already in place, and so that was the road taken.
But things change, and so thorium reactors may yet have their day…
He lost me when he went over the horizon to pursue his utopian Venus project away from those nefarious officials who would squelch it at every turn. The problem with this idea is that everyone is different and so “utopian” means different things to different people. But this project smacks of a rigidity that the evil officials he is escaping from can only dream of. No thanks. At least in our society we have some freedom to develop our immediate living space in a matter that suits ourselves, as imperfect as that might be. I’ll take that over a planned environment – planned by a committee of “experts” – any day.
That said, streets littered with strip malls, gas stations, and fast-food joints are seriously ugly and condemn people to dependency on automobiles. It’s a conundrum…
Regarding his researching novel ideas, I’m all for it. But… isn’t that what we do at Universities? Of course I know that research funding is often tied to commercial interests. Unfortunate, but that’s reality. But this does bring up the issue of funding. How will all those 10,000 people be supported while they are investigating all these unorthodox technologies? Research is expensive. And isn’t the idea of selling the product generated by these “technology hubs” to the outside world is going to run into the reality of “the market”? Is there a use for these products? Are these products competitively priced with other products already out there? Couldn’t we achieve the technological breakthroughs Simon is pursuing through our current University system?
Speaking of universities, he lost me in a massive way when he claimed that Tesla wasn’t mentioned even once while studying for his physics degree. The Tesla is the standard unit of measurement for magnetic flux density! It is next to impossible to get through an Electricity & Magnetism course without it being drilled into you. Was he asleep? Or is this hyperbole…?
I liked his idea of pyrolizing waste tires into liquid fuel and graphene. Still, I wonder why this hasn’t been done already. Is there actually a system up and running somewhere that does this? I’ll stay tuned here…
Overall a good video. But it was a bit long and I can do without the preaching. Stick to the technical discussion and try to curb some of the hype.
After viewing the Venus Project web site (link below), I’m taken aback at the choice of building materials and designs for a south-central Florida location. Though I have not been there in person to examine the buildings, I have been in and around similar mid-XX Century futuristic designs for most of my life. If not scrupulously maintained and continuously air-conditioned, they quickly turn into uninhabitable mold pits.
https://www.thevenusproject.com/
What does work is generally called Cracker Architecture. With its off-the-ground frame construction, moderately-to-steep pitched metal roofs, broad porches, useable windows, etc., these are resilient against the southern weather, hurricanes, insects, etc They are livable through the hot, muggy summers without air-conditioning, though they can adapt well to it when there’s sufficient electricity available. Finally, the chief building material (pine wood) literally grows right there on trees.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_cracker_architecture
For a more reasonable approach to growing a town – as opposed to imposing a centrally planned design – take a look at the ideas behind Seaside FL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9F4PDPUS24 Yes, yes, it has gotten gentrified from its original intent, but the ideas still hold up for the future.
BTW, I get to Seaside several times a year. It’s pretty pleasant to stroll around and drink coffee there, maybe run a 5k now and then. It was considered sufficiently weird that it was used as the set for The Truman Show. But it’s weird in a good way, one that hearkens back to the good parts of late 19th & early 20th Century America. After seeing all this about the Venus Project, I’m considering a side-trip for the tour there sometime next spring. If I manage to do so, I’ll post a report back here at the site.
Let’s get back to the butt-ugliness of Venustown and the main point here: If the people behind the project got the architecture so trivially, awfully wrong, one has to wonder what else did they get wrong in the overall plan?
ps: All of the above IN NO WAY is meant to contradict the basics of energy, resources, capital, etc. discussed by Chris and Michaux in the bulk of the conversation. It’s just that the central planning of Project Venus seems unlikely to work, and the buildings are just plain ugly and probably non-functional in the long term.
Regarding his researching novel ideas, I’m all for it. But… isn’t that what we do at Universities?Sadly, the internal integrity of universities has all but broken down. Listen to Weinstein & Heying on their Dark Horse podcast to get the inside view there. It's damn ugly.
Soon there will be no demand in the EU. Like BASF in WW2 ….the elite will survive.
Too many people are dependent on the government
drip. They themselves took the risk
taken -not Fauci et al.
Chris and Simon, that was a great interview. Let’s get round two on the calendar.
I love the focus on solutions and lets go do them approach.
There’s one big question nobody has an answer for yet.
Let’s say you carve out your utopia. You have working energy systems, your own manufacturing, food systems, housing, and a stable healthy well educated population.
But… your neighbor mostly copy your ways, but decides if they cut down truffula trees that they then turn into thneeds they can bigger their factories and bigger thier loads. We should all know where this story goes.
Throughout history this same story has played out thousands of times. The Lorax almost always looses.
What are the Lorax’s options? (diplomacy, legal, solcial, use of force). When it’s another tribe, city state, or country that gives you the finger, your options get very limited.
Not all humans would do what the Onceler did. How do you know which ones are like that? Maybe we are all greedy, but it only comes out in some.
Personally I feel pain when I see natural areas cleared to build yet another shopping complex or housing development. I’m possibly hard wired for balance as I almost always want to support the underdog.
Also, there is the problem of immigration. Again, lets say you have your utopia system going well. But then a family of women and children show up on your border. And then another, and another. Do you reject and send them to their certain deaths? What if they are from another tribe that is know to over populate and consume natural resources? At what point do you defend your borders against the desperate with force? What is an acceptable level of immigrants, 1%, 2% per year? How do you evaluate them for qualities you want and qualities you don’t want?
All of these are tough questions we may not want to publicly answer, at least in today’s environment.
Good luck with your project. Let us know how it goes.
-Travis
security through obscurity
long distance travel will be more difficult and dangerous.
significant depop will afford relative abundance, unevenly distributed of course
the kind of people who loot and plunder are less likely to readily unite under a single warlord (?) (hopefully?) hence roving bands will be small and also unevenly distributed, will also fight each other
and lots of ‘hope for the best’, prepare for the worst.
successful, selective absorption of new people into the community, a very important puzzle to solve
… but if you’re talking about being a neighboring community to another more maximizing/greedy/non-steady state one … well send out scouts to find a new location?
so, add one more challenge to truly sustainable tech - it should also be readily transportable
Yes on the depop, but they are unlikely to go down without a fight.
Yes on distance, that is absolutely one of the best options. Problem though is that much of the planet is already populated and there are not many uninhabited places left. Alaska isn’t a viable option for myself.
I suspect we will see lots of groups band together around strong warlords, and at first to defend against resource raiders. The better the warlords and the bigger the group the better their survival chances. The warlords with do what warlords have always done, promise security and access to resources in return for their obedience. Anyone who has studied history knows how this game works. Plus, the Rules For Rulers still apply.
Pick up and moving isn’t always a good strategy. How did that work out for the native Americans?
