“That doesn’t feel right”
It certainly doesn’t…but so far, over the past 118 weeks the simulation has been pretty stable, and others have come to similar conclusions over longer time frames via different (based on more theoretical calculations rather than using actual rescaled generation figures) for Australia.
Now, he admits that is results may not apply to other parts of the globe, as Australia has some distinct advantages, as he states:
“Australia has many advantages for RE: lots of sparsely populated land, good RE resources, regions with uncorrelated wind, ~7+ GW of hydro with large dams & peak demand usually in summer.”
It seems that the uncorrelated wind regions must be a big factor.
Anyhow, here’s a link to the assumptions of his modelling:
https://twitter.com/DavidOsmond8/status/1697487504226861305
Of course, none of it takes into consideration the nonlinear minerals musical chair situation that would arise from the world trying to do the same thing.
As for me and my family, we are having an (effectively) off grid solution installed in the next month, because we know our government will screw our grid up, and drive prices through the roof and destroy reliability. Kind of annoyed I have to spend $40k to provide something that really should be basic infrastructure.
“How did that work out for the native Americans?”
well, we are now talking about the symmetrical other side of the Seneca Cliff, so the tactics that afforded some bands a couple more decades of sweet freedom in the northern plains, the northern rockies, and some in the southwest - those tactics would be very potent, but the landscape is not as abundant, and no one has the skills. Mobility, evasion, group cohesion, bravery, the ability to live off the land in harsh conditions … worthy of close study and emulation. Nothing could withstand the tidal forces of the 1800’s - technological, demographic. This century, those tides are flowing out in reverse.
if no one is traveling more than 20 miles a day then plenty of USA/Canada is profoundly unpopulated. And plenty of those survivable pockets will be full of folks who have known each other and their families a long time. “Howdy Stranger, you’d best be moving along.”
Close study of history, say the Viking era of the 800’s onward - this indeed could be relevant - but, um, folks were a little bit sturdier then, hmm? Warband types will feud with each other on a proximal basis, rather than ranging the countryside on foot or horseback or bicycle, in search of loot too heavy to carry.
Some think that “Cars don’t go places, People Do!” but really, have you tried it?
Our sense of this continent is inextricably tied into our current mobility tech, and you don’t have to be Dmitry Orlov to realize that gas stations are going away in a real SHTF scenario. Preppers will have what, at best 6 months to roam in their overland survival vehicles before they turn into rugged looking bricks?
But back to group cohesion - possibly very under appreciated. Libertarian hyper-individualist gun enthusiasts, constantly running status games? Hijacking what few oil tankers or traders of valuable goods cross their paths? Catabolic until nothing is left. Enduring communities will have to avoid such tendencies at all costs, and erect social and physical boundaries and taboos, though deceased prepper supply depots will always be worth a visit. The greediest hoarders will take each other out on a priority basis, in a nasty cycle that may last decades, but then hopefully some communities will eventually cohere into something more stable, self sustaining, and non-threatening.
Dan Carlin came out with two new episodes recently:
https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-69-twilight-of-the-aesir/
we should be so lucky, to end up with something like what the Norse had before succumbing to conquest
We welcome you to Venus, Florida. Your constructive critique only helps us improve. We want to integrate all good ideas that prove to be robust and resilient- low maintenance and low energy and materials expenditure. There are no final frontiers; the beauty of The Venus Project is that it is an evolving system. We do not hold on to our buildings as “this is it!” All great ideas are being researched and are welcome; Jacque Fresco and Roxanne Meadows, in the 1980s (the founders of The Venus Project), built what they could afford to make, not wholly what they wanted to create. So when Simon talks about integrating us into his planning, it is because we are constantly willing to evolve to changing conditions based on new, well-researched information.
You have said a lot which needs to be unpacked slowly and carefully. So, more than a typed-out reply to your comment would be required. Working within this limitation, here goes: The Venus Project (TVP) has disliked the utopian label because it does not represent its underlying philosophies. We at TVP are fully aware that what is “awesome” is subjective and that we could never attain perfection, but we know we can have something better than what we have today. Sure, what is better is subjective, but finding an appropriate balance is crucial for addressing complex issues such as design, innovation, resilience, control, efficiency, lifestyle, etc. TVP is an experiment addressing systemic problems, not a business tech venture. While universities conduct valuable research, TVP aims for a holistic, interdisciplinary approach, hoping to accelerate innovation for the benefit of all humans and the environment that we are a part of.
Whether that receives funding time will tell. The cities of TVP were designed to be universities where research and development are based on restoring and conserving the environment, keeping people healthy, and providing all inhabitants access to the necessities of life. We want a collaborative environment where unconventional ideas can thrive if they work. We don’t want experts telling people what to do and how to behave. We want a competent public who will participate in improving everyone’s life (and, in turn, their own) by being problem solvers, and the university cities we propose are a way of facilitating that process. With their needs being met, people can go back to “school” and study whatever they want to learn to solve whatever problems they feel passionate about solving. I am sure you have concerns I haven’t addressed in this bit, so please feel free to point those out. We welcome constructive critique. It only helps us learn and grow. We don’t claim to have the “ultimate” solution. We claim to have an approach to our many pressing problems.
Oh I agree with most of that. It will be a shit show.
Keep in mind one man’s leader will be the other man’s warlord.
And yes, raiding for resources will be very risky.
I’m certainly in favor of environments where researchers can pursue whatever ideas look promising to them. It is when integrity is compromised by ideology or corrupted by commercial interests that I walk away.
The university aspect did not come through to me in the interview. It seemed to me to be more of a lifestyle project from Simon’s comments. I’m still a bit skeptical in how such a project would be funded, but if Simon can pull it off, more power to him.
Universities do NOT research novel ideas! The big names would soon be dethroned so when they get to weigh in on a novel research idea they knock it down.
So Simon Is Going Off To Take Care Of Himself - The Rest Of Us Can Starve In The Dark Would You Listen To A Better Idea?
Going off for 10 years without catalyzing the novel ideas to be immediately fed back into the mainstream public is a moral crime.
Absolutely agree the powers won’t let you do this on their watch. Thorium reactors is the perfect example. Turning private space flight into a vacation for the rich and a virtual experience to distract the masses another. Tech is not solving problems, it’s keeping the monsters in power.
We don’t need the problem solvers to go off to an island leaving the non-elite resisters to suffer on their own. Lots of “little people” would be happy to get on your innovation bandwagon - but I hear you, in your arrogance saying, sorry they don’t have your power money or contacts so they can flounder on their own. One or two percent of most populations would get behind such efforts if they can find them. You need to gather them into a support network - for your efforts, but more importantly for them.
May I suggest a better model? Yes, there needs to be at a hub that is safe from destruction, NOT by the starving masses but by the powerful who need you to fail and need your resources.
What you then need is a world-wide distributed network of supporters helping out with the practical, small scale examples that can be implemented by non-elites. This stuff has to scale and it needs small hubs of innovation everywhere where it can.
Please, please get local nodes involved everywhere in the world NOT by sending you money but by contributing to the effort without running off to their elite, protected utopia.
If this works and there is a society left to rebuild in 10 years, the same capacity you’re trying to build in your ivory tower needs to be seeded world-wide.
The world needs hope - your idea of leaving people for 10 years to survive on your own is the end of all hope. Even if the ragtag band of resistance never contributes any real tech innovation to your ivory tower, they provide two things: beacons of hope and an in-place network of resistance that you can use to roll out your innovations.
Harari talks about the power of constructive myths (shared intersubjective realities). Right now the narratives, especially on the left, are extremely toxic, e.g. we’ll all live in a metaverse powered by wind and solar [by 2030]. A network of better mental models needs to be seeded globally, not among the affluent, college educated elites, but on main street among people who are not as smart, as wealthy or as connected as you guys. Leaders need good followers who know they will never match your achievement, nor are they rich enough to fund your utopian quest. Help such people find each other.
Chris, right now you’re channeling anger - don’t blame you - I’d like to take names and kick posteriors too. AND we’re circling a black hole. Ranting against the dark will not serve us. We can use our remaining energy and resources to move away from the danger OR we can engage in a witch hunt to find the culprits who got us here. WE CAN’T DO BOTH. So how about we consider an old Christmas tradition - lighting candles with each other to serve as positive beacons.
As Don Beck (Spiral Dynamics) used to comment - no more blue ribbons for forecasting rain, nor awards for designing a better ark. The arks need to be under construction with a few already afloat. Simon, while you’re off on a 10 year quest for the perfect ark, please scatter at least a few row boats and rafts around the world for the rest of us.
Chis is continually introducing us to affluent people, who usually got their wealth from being very good at the toxic financial game that is destroying the world. They tell us about building a farm in Puerto Rico or a research compound in the wilds. PP subscribers continually reply they don’t have such options. To channel Granny [old timers will remember her] - time to offer hope to the folks that don’t have your advantages but are fully aware of the problems and need support to contribute to solutions.
I think you are missing the point on why Simon is going off to start something new and not asking for permission or cooperation. Most people simply don’t understand the problems at hand, nor do they have any clue what to do about them. They just need to get out of the way. If they eventually die off, then so be it. They can’t be helped. Now if they change their tune, and start to show some curiosity and willingness to do things differently, then maybe dialog can be restarted.
We share this in common: “It is when integrity is compromised by ideology or corrupted by commercial interests that I walk away.”
The university aspect didn’t come through because details are still being worked out, as he said in the interview. I was presenting what TVP is about, although I know it’s not a lifestyle project for him. The funding part is to be determined.
we could just let the elites go off on their project and then because the world is mapped and known by coordinates, the rest of us could send 1 or 2 hypersonic missiles and take care of the worst of the worst.
Now We Know…
Why there seems to be a de-population agenda - from Nitrogen to Solar Panels, etc. All of it tried to wean people off of oil. However, with less people on the planet and with the Great Taking, it should be a snap to control people and the elites continue as they were.
Great Discussion
Thank you for providing a bit of optimism for the future.Recent events can make one rather gloomy. Peak Prosperity members may find this video interesting in that the Russian professor provides explanations for a lot of what has beset the world in recent times.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/UvNDNb4o6MKh/
“It seems to me that God had it right from the beginning and that we should live an agrarian life where we all worked for our own food with our own hands, and lived in harmony with creation around us.”
Amen!
There Is So Much Here
These conversations are so important. Decent human beings have to come together to help mitigate the suffering of the coming days. No one wants to see babies crying in the streets. If we have to downscale, it should be done humanely and gradually.
I’d love the hear Simon and Alan Booker have a discussion. What does Booker think of thorium reactors? Will they kill us sooner, like he said about fusion?
A Ray Of Hope
I hope we can continue to hear about this project. It feels like a small ray of hope, actively pursing solutions, in the midst of everything going on.
What’s wrong with solar panels? The majority of solar brands are moving away from rare-earths. 95% of Solar uses silicon (which is 27% of the Earth’s crust) and aluminium (8%) and some silver or copper to send the electricity out - but this can be replaced by aluminium if the copper ever gets scarce. Normal CRYSTALLINE solar cells do not require rare metals or earths! Only thin film PV’s require Gallium, Tellurium, Cadmium and Indium. Solar cells CAN use rare metals but most don’t. Replace GALLIUM with regular boron. http://www.acs.org/education/resources/highschool/chemmatters/past-issues/archive-2013-2014/how-a-solar-cell-works.html
The thing is, most renewables plans I’ve seen cover much more vast areas than just tiny dark little Germany (which is 22 times smaller than Australia.) Europe plans to build the ENTSO-E super-grid which will use HVDC lines that only lose 3% per 1000km to wire the whole continent up. That’s across 35 countries and 525 million customers - bringing northern wind down to complement southern solar from Spain. Google any decent renewables plan and you’ll see geographic spread reduces storage down to trivial amounts. THEN realise sodium batteries can be super-abundant, and pumped hydro has 100 TIMES the potential sites we need. https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/pumped_hydro_atlas/ There is absolutely zero need for Michaux’s choice of Critical Minerals heavy NMC811 batteries. None. Atlas of various pumped hydro maps here: https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/pumped_hydro_atlas/
But Why Base Storage Requirements On An Isolated German Grid?
"assuming we’d like to have a 28-day buffer built in, necessitating huge battery development"That is - of course - where most renewables papers disagree. Why 28 days? Because the focus of those papers was a tiny, isolated German grid. Why pick that when most renewables papers emphasise building super-grids ( Professor Andrew Blakers KNOWS renewables. He designed the PERC solar cell and received the engineering equivalent of a “Nobel prize” for it - the Queen Elizabeth prize for Engineering. Blakers says if Australian states were to build their own independent renewable energy grids state by state - they would pay 5 TIMES as much for storage. https://reneweconomy.com.au/solars-stunning-journey-from-lab-curiosity-to-global-juggernaut-wiping-out-fossil-fuels/ Keep in mind, this is states in Australia. Australia is already vast. Just the smaller state of NSW is over twice the size of Germany. You could fit Germany into Australia 21 times. Yet in terms of renewables planning, even huge Australian states are just not big enough. Five TIMES as much storage! Of course - building a wider grid also requires you build extra renewables than you need. Engineer David Osmond calculates that Australia could massively reduce storage if we built over 170% renewable capacity over our national electricity grid. It’s a simplified model - but it does the job to illustrate the point that Overbuild matters. http://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-grid-is-well-within-reach-and-with-little-storage/ It’s affordable, because renewables are ¼ the LCOE of nuclear (Lazard - raw LCOE unfirmed). Michaux references very rare studies into a hypothetical isolated German grid - like Ruhnau & Qvist 2021. But even they admit studying an isolated German grid exaggerates storage costs (P 6). They practically beg someone to do a pan-European study into “geographical smoothing” (P 11.) Fortunately, Roth et al 2023 DID do that study into linking just 12 core European countries - and the results show just wind power across that region would reduce storage requirements 30%. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223011513 But ultimately the European plans are for a European super-grid. Broader than Europe even! There’s the ENTSO-E super grid evolving across 35 countries and 525 MILLION customers. https://www.entsoe.eu/ HVDC lines only lose 3% electricity per 1000 km. The plan is to wire the whole continent up so that northern wind and southern solar offset each other. Spain - or even Morocco - can power Finland! Mexico could hypothetically power Canada. Do the math. And renewables are still getting cheaper - with solar expected to be HALF the cost of today by 2030 (at 29% efficiency - Blakers.)
I believe it has to do more with energy storage (batteries) to accommodate peak loads, and the buffer to offset nighttime and cloudy days. I think solar for small scale (house, single buildings) makes sense especially if it is to supplement other energy sources where batteries are not required.