I asked Grok whether the Magnus effect would be significant, and got this answer:
For a typical rifle bullet (e.g., 7.62 mm, 300 m/s, spinning at 200,000 RPM), the Magnus force is on the order of a few millinewtons, compared to the bullet’s weight (0.1 N) and drag force (1–10 N). This results in a lateral deviation of only a few millimeters over a 300-meter trajectory, which is negligible compared to other factors like wind drift, bullet stability, or ballistic coefficient.
That is a new physical phenomenon I had never heard of before though. Interesting.
I’ve obviously spent a lot of time puzzling over the red in the center window. A lot of people think it’s reflection of barn #16. But Dayve has some frames taken from a very low elevation which show red almost all the way to the top of the window. That doesn’t make sense, given a screen grab of a reflection caught by a police officer a little later:
It’s obviously taken from a much higher viewpoint than the prior screengrab of Dayve’s, but the barn only goes about halfway up the window, and we clearly see a tree and sky above it.
Here’s what Detective Collin’s bodycam shows as he’s walking past window 3 at 6:09:55:
Detective Collin’s video doesn’t show the red - that may be due to a different type of filter on the camera. This screengrab DOES show the semicircle at the top.
Both videos from Collins and Dayve Stewart show a line that is light that extends from the bottom of the window upward about 1/5 of the way in many shots. You can see it in the one from Collins here.
Here are two of Dayve’s. In the first, it looks like the camera is at about Det. Collins elbow level, in the second the camera appears to be down about the horses’ knees (or whatever that’s called in a horse). You will notice the line is shorter in the shot that’s taken from a lower position:
Thanks so much for the link. This interview was June 26 - a little over two weeks ago. Mrs. Comperatore said that Dan “transparency” Bongino talked to her and said Crooks was a lone wolf, and the FBI would be revealing results of their inquiry in “about two weeks”.
Damn, they really are going to cover it up. Of course, Trump’s FBI has blown its credibility to smithereens by saying not only that Epstein killed himself, but that there never was any client list.
And they really don’t give a shit about their credibility.
Here’s the rumble version:
Something new (to me, anyway):
It would appear that someone got ahold of the telehandler that was shot, and got a photograph of the bullet hole before the FBI cut the hydraulic line out and dropped it in the memory hole.
It’s got a perfectly round bullet hole (like you get only when hits squarely on a cylindrical surface) that was facing toward the Hercules 2 team.
J D wilcox has scanned everything with the help of photogrammetry and a drone. It would be best if you contacted him. Perhaps he will make his data available.
8:20
Addendum: He plans to publish the 3D model after the premiere of his film on July 13.
You’re welcome, and I even inquired about advertising on Dr. Drew(but had no reply)
On my own website, I have pictures of the balding pro gunman from 2 different videos.
(Stewart’s & Driscoll’s).
Also, I thought the McCullough video would have better images of Baldy, but it didn’t, almost as if 8 or 9 frames of McCullough’s video had ‘erased’ his pictures.
Trump has a vocal reaction as he’s hit, and Copenhaver has a reflexive arm reaction as he’s also hit, with the 1st bullet fired by Baldy, from AGR4(under a factory smoke cloud) at the stage:
Long time no contact! I really admire your dedication to this forum. I had to take a break because there wasn’t much interesting new information coming in. But I believe the shot coming from Vent 1 is truly a game changer.
You can see everyone in the back row of the south bleachers reacting to an early shot. Some people say that could be just from the bullet hitting the back railing. It could be from them hearing a bullet whizzing by though.
— SonjaX6
I think I can clearly explain what happened in the upper row of the bleachers. This point was especially emphasized by John Collin, who suggested there was a shooter in the trees firing along the line of the top row.
The man in the white shirt has been one of the most confusing elements of this story. He is seen standing on the bleachers and suddenly falling off exactly at the moment of the first shot, which would be physically impossible given normal human reaction time. This led some to conclude that a silent shot must have been fired before the official first shot.
However, on closer examination, it appears that the person sitting next to him — who could not see the screen — intentionally hit him on the knee.
The timing is such that he is struck just before the first shot, causing him to lose balance and fall. The unstable bleachers then wobble, making everyone standing on them lose their balance and react to the man in the white shirt falling — not to an early shot.
It seems to have been an unfortunate coincidence that misled everyone at the beginning of this investigation. I hope this explanation helps to finally put the “ghost shooter” theory to rest.
Well, I was not aware of the angular speed so high.
Left spinning or right?
It is like Lorentz force in electrodynamics, perpendicular to the motion.
Assuming the bulett travels toward south and the wind is toward east. Depending the projectile is spinning left or right, the Magnus force will incerase or decrease its height.
copilot:
Situation Setup
Projectile direction: Toward the south
Wind direction: Eastward and slow
Spin orientation:
Left spin (counterclockwise from above) or
Right spin (clockwise from above)
Magnus Effect Breakdown
The Magnus effect generates a force perpendicular to the direction of motion and spin due to pressure differences around the projectile. It’s often observed in spinning balls, like in tennis or soccer.
Left spin (counterclockwise from above)
The right (west) side of the projectile moves in the same direction as the wind, increasing relative airspeed there.
The left (east) side opposes the wind, reducing relative airspeed.
Result: Higher pressure on the east side pushes the projectile westward and slightly upward, depending on spin speed.
Height impact: Likely increased due to upward Magnus lift.
Right spin (clockwise from above)
The east side moves with the wind, increasing relative velocity.
The west side opposes it, reducing airspeed.
Result: Magnus force pushes the projectile eastward and slightly downward, countering lift.
Height impact: May reduce the projectile’s altitude.
Note
While wind plays a role in relative airspeed distribution, the spin velocity and projectile speed are primary determinants of Magnus force. A stronger spin amplifies the vertical lift or drop effect.
Would you like to visualize this with a diagram or explore how this applies to a real sport—maybe football or baseball?
(Oh, I feel copilot got confused. (It should hve mentioned upper and lower side of the projectile, instead of its left and right. Also, perpendicular to the wind, not the rotation axis.))
Without wind, there is no effect, due to the symmetry. But the wind toward east would effect not only the horizontal position of the projectile. It will also modify the vertical position.
Yes, I am working on including the hydraulic piston in my 3D model.
On the third shot you should start at the end and draw a line from the piston to David Dutch and then see where it goes.
— Daniel59
We have to be careful here, because if the second or third shot hits David, the trajectory is completely altered. In that case, it can’t be accurately simulated — we would simply have to accept that the trajectory was deflected in such a way that it ended up hitting the hydraulic piston. What makes you sure that shot 3 hit David for the second time?
My gut feeling is that shot 2 hits David and is then deflected toward the hydraulic cylinder. I did see your video showing the hydraulic fluid leaking after shot 3, but it’s also possible that it took a few seconds for the pressure to build up before the fluid started squirting out the way it did.
Let’s keep investigating — maybe the soon-to-be-released movie will reveal more.
As I mentioned, I haven’t analyzed the hydraulic cylinder topic in depth yet. Let’s do more research together once it’s fully integrated into the 3D model.
@daniel59:
I have already found some relevant technical data:
ZMT television network North of Hollywood sent me it’s corrected GRAPHIC CONTENT video of Shot 25:
(ZMT also said it’s continuing to upgrade, to accelerate Copenhaver’s arm flip)
I remember that in one of his videos, Chris mentioned that shot No. 1 appeared to be an ascending bullet, and it seemed to be a large caliber round, with enough force to create huge dammage to the aluminum bleachers corner.
Now, we also see another shot (without echoes) penetrating the hydraulic cylinder. (thank you @sonjax6 )
Could an AR-15–style rifle, like the one Crooks used, cause such damage?
Question 2
Assuming shots were fired from a “sniper nest” through the vents, what type of gun would likely have been used? Would it make sense for them to use bolt-action sniper rifles?
BREAKING: Six Secret Service Agents Connected to Trump Butler Assassination Attempt Suspended
“We aren’t going to fire our way out of this,” Matt Quinn, Secret Service Deputy Director said in an interview CBS News. “We’re going to focus on the root cause and fix the deficiencies that put us in that situation.”
The so-called ‘security lapses’ and circumstances surrounding the assassination attempt against Trump raise questions about how Thomas Matthew Crooks was able to pull everything off by himself.
Thomas Crooks flew a drone over the Butler fairgrounds at least twice on the day of the Trump rally.
He flew his drone at approximately 3:50 – 4:05 pm that day – during the time the Secret Service was having connectivity issues.
According to WaPo, Secret Service agents never directed local police to secure the roof that Thomas Crooks used to take 8 shots at Trump and rallygoers.
It was previously reported that Secret Service never picked up radios that were set aside for them by local law Butler County law enforcement at Trump’s rally on July 13.
-Gateway
" David Dutch was standing in the bleachers behind the stage where the 45th president was speaking at 6:11 p.m. when he was shot twice — once in the chest and once in the liver — at Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13, 2024."
He was hit twice. The first shot did not hit him and after the third shot he lay on the ground. It is most likely that he was hit by the second and third shots. Especially as Copenhaver was still standing after the third shot.
Situation Setup
Magnus Effect Breakdown
Left spin (counterclockwise from above)
Right spin (clockwise from above)
Note
