I would assign a 100% probability to HypothesisOnly:
Copenhaver’s arm was hit with YourFirstShot, as he’s told Feldman brothers(attorneys)
The impact hole is oval-shaped. To approximate the bullet’s size, shouldn’t we measure the narrower dimension of the hole?
The fact that the hole is oval also indicates that the shot came from an angle — exactly as we are presenting here:
According to AI analysis, the angle of the bullet determines the shape of the hole, but it does not directly dictate the direction of the liquid jet.
Instead, the fluid flow follows the local surface perpendicular to the square cylinder.
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By the way, I asked chatGPT to calculate the vertical deflection due to Magnus force.
Scenario:
A bullet is flying horizontally toward the south.
There is a crosswind blowing from the west to the east (wind is blowing eastward).
The bullet has some spin due to rifling – it could be clockwise (CW) or counterclockwise (CCW).
You’re asking: Does the Magnus effect push the bullet up or down?Key Principle:
The Magnus force acts toward the side of the bullet where the surface spin and wind direction match (i.e., where their velocities add up). On that side, the air moves faster → pressure is lower → bullet is pushed toward that side.Outcomes:
Spin direction Where spin matches wind (eastward)? Magnus force direction
CW (clockwise) – typical right-hand twist Bottom of the bullet Downward
CCW (counterclockwise) – left-hand twist Top of the bullet UpwardFinal Answer:
If the bullet has CW spin (right-hand twist, most common) → Magnus effect pushes it downward.
If the bullet has CCW spin (left-hand twist) → Magnus effect pushes it upward.
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I use a special edition of ffmpeg.
FFmpeg 64-bit static Windows build from www.gyan.dev
Version: 7.1.1-essentials_build-www.gyan.dev
If the same bullet grazed Coppenhaver’s left arm and hit the railings, that’s weird. There were 4 people jampacked into that corner. The bullet should have penetrated them.
Head to Toe: the counter narrative of Secret Service.
They claimed: many people did not notice at all they have been shot. This is why the protectee must be examined from head to toe.
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It looks like was hit by armor-piercing - steel core lead jacket. Lead prevents the bullet to bounce off. It is like when you hold the nail by hand when hammering. The angle of penetration looks like 80 deg.
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I think it is normal. Try to push a pencil into a bread slice by 80 degrees.
Probably a mecha engineer could explain it more correctly.
The lower edge of the hole and the graze below can tell the direction of the bullet. The forensic expert can read this picture like an open book.
+EDIT 1:
Transcript:
9:26 way the bullet could enter and just blow
9:29 a hole any direction? Had you talked to
9:31 engineers? Are you pretty sure that this
9:33 is the case that it would only blow in
9:36 the direction the bullet came from?
9:38 Yeah, we’re very confident about that.
9:40 There is one possible way that a bullet
9:43 could hit that hydraulic line and spray
9:46 fluid in a different direction. But if
9:48 that was the case, it would have to hit
9:50 it at a glancing blow. And as you can
9:52 see from that picture, it’s not a
9:54 glancing blow. It is a direct hit. And
9:57 that means the fluid is going to spray
9:59 out in the direction that the bullet
10:01 came from. We actually hired a, you
From other hand, there is an angle like total reflection. So at shallow angle the bullet will bounce back or slides away.
chatGPT:
Angle of Impact and Penetration
- For a bullet to penetrate a surface effectively, especially hard surfaces (metal, armor, etc.), it typically needs to hit close to perpendicular (near 90°).
- At shallow angles (grazing hits), the bullet is more likely to:
- Ricochet (bounce off)
- Skid or graze the surface, leaving a mark but not penetrating
- Fragment, depending on bullet composition and speed
This is analogous to the critical angle in optics—past a certain angle, light totally reflects rather than refracts.
The Graze Mark and Bullet Composition
- You mention seeing a graze of paint on one side of the hole. That’s a key detail:
- It suggests that the bullet did not hit perfectly perpendicular.
- Instead, it grazed slightly before penetrating, scraping away surface material (e.g., paint, rust, oxidation).
- This might indicate a partially deflected path that still had enough kinetic energy and angle to penetrate.
Lead Jacket with Steel Core
- If you observed a graze mark with metallic transfer, that supports the idea of a jacketed bullet:
- Many military or armor-piercing rounds use a lead jacket or copper jacket around a steel (or tungsten) core.
- Upon impact, especially at oblique angles, the softer outer jacket may abrade or deform while the hard core punches through.
Conclusion
From the hole shape, angle of entry, and graze mark, your reasoning sounds very plausible:
- A jacketed bullet with a hard core struck the surface at a slightly off-perpendicular angle.
- The bullet still penetrated, likely due to sufficient kinetic energy and a relatively hard, dense core.
- The graze and paint mark confirm the entry dynamics and support the hypothesis of the bullet type.
If you have a photo of the impact or more context (e.g. what kind of material was hit), I can help analyze it further.
+EDIT 2:
Even though it’s the entry side, localized deformation in a thin, cold-formed surface can cause flakes or fragments to be ejected outward — especially surface coatings or thin aluminum shears.
It is like:
Can Construction (Cold Forming)
Process:
- Starts as a flat aluminum disc
- The disc is pushed into a die using a mechanical punch
- The metal flows plastically, forming the cylindrical can shape
- This is done at room temperature (not melted)
- The metal stretches and thins — especially near the base and walls
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chatGPT:
No, a standard AR-15 rifle cannot shoot .308 Winchester (WinMag) ammunition. Here’s why:
1. Caliber Compatibility
- The standard AR-15 is chambered in .223 Remington / 5.56 NATO.
- .308 Winchester (WinMag) is a much larger and more powerful cartridge, typically used in AR-10 rifles, not AR-15s.
2. Physical Differences
- The .308 Win cartridge is longer, wider, and has significantly more powder than a .223/5.56 round.
- The AR-15 magazine, chamber, and bolt are not designed to handle this size or pressure.
3. Attempting to Fire .308 in an AR-15
- It is extremely dangerous and mechanically impossible to fire a .308 WinMag round from a standard AR-15.
- The round won’t fit in the chamber or magazine, and trying to force it can cause catastrophic failure of the firearm.
Why should Crooks not have been able to fire shots 4 to 8?
Shot 9 is said to have been fired by Zaliponi at Crooks. Shot 9 hit Crooks rifle, not his body.
Please explain how this works.
Which free CAD software would you recommend to a layperson?
But tomorrow you will definitely have to check whether Wilcox uses the correct heights in his 3D model.
I doubt it, because with correct heights Wilcox should have recognized that the first bullet rises from Trump’s head to the railing.
Corey Comperatore was filming Trump when the first 3 shots were fired.
His wife recently received his smartphone.
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I think he was physically able to fire 4,5,6,7,8 but maybe not in 0.78 seconds.
He was ordered to let Baldy take shots 1,2,3
and then to let Yearick take shots 4,5,6,7,8.
When Baldy jumped down, and Yearick was shot by Zaliponi, Crooks became indecisive.
Yes, that version plays.
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Thanks, and the version that plays is much easier to make.
Maybe the webbrowser makers are trying to force smaller filesize videos.
ffmpeg -i Corey.mp4 -ss 0:01:10 -t 0:00:15 -vf fps=23 -c:v bmp .%04d.bmp
Shot 1 can be heard when blue hoodie was between Trump and the lectern.
Shot 2 when hoodie disapperas.
Shot 3:
Guess now which shot it was? (2nd)
He holds his hand at the lectern at the first shot.
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I just try to find that hat.
We can see Mr Kelly and the sheriff. And the man in suit and white cap.
The cowboy hat guy turned around very quickly, but from other direction he is not there.
I think that the bullet trace was copied in.
I seem to recall that someone here on the forum was convinced that he could show that this couldn’t be the real bullet trace because the timing didn’t match the first or second shot. But I don’t remember his name.
John Cullen shows his viewers the vegaspatriot recognition tool and praises it for its wealth of information.
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