So It's Back To First Principles (Part 1)

By the way, the fat lady agent that slid to a crouch a few feet behind the body bunker she was supposed to be part of, and then couldn’t holster her gun - she’s not one of the ones suspended.

Listening to David Dutch, it appears that only one shot actually injured him — specifically, shot 2 according to our analysis.

The New York Post and many others got this wrong:

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Thus, it was not Crooks’s AR-15–style rifle, which would definitively confirm the involvement of a second shooter?

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I just want to address something that is presented in the movie that will soon be released. Although we should watch the film carefully and listen closely to what they have to say, they claim that the oil flow must follow the path of the bullet impact, which supposedly proves that the shot came from the tents and not from the direction we have illustrated here.

I was somewhat skeptical of this argument, so I asked AI for clarification — which confirmed my assumption

Therefore, the hydraulic fluid will follow the perpendicular local surface of the square cylinder; it does not flow in the direction of the shot. This confirms that our simulation appears to be correct.

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The 4 countersnipers had the elevation advantage over Perez and Curran and all of the stage agents.
Maybe HorseLady’s flag blocked their view.
This was made with 117 consecutive frames of Dayve Stewart’s video(so 3.9 seconds of real time) 1 minute before shots at Trump, as HorseLady rode by.
Does anyone see a guy with his fist raised?
If not, maybe you see a bald guy to your right in the final of 117 frames. (I see several)

I fixed TMZ’s video for them:

I have never found a player that works for those videos. I downloaded ffmpeg at one point, and couldn’t get it to work.

I now have a new windows 11 computer that doesn’t recognize the format either.

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I would like to address the first-shot hypothesis.

Hypothesis 1

Trump is hit in the ear, and the bullet then impacts the upper corner of the bleachers. Around the same time, Copenhaver raises his left arm, just as the man in the white shirt begins to dive down. As we clarified with @sonjax6, this corresponds to a normal human reaction time of approximately 0.33 seconds.

Copenhaver raises his left arm in response to the sound, not because he was grazed. At the moment of the shot, there is no dynamic movement or tearing visible on the left sleeve of Copenhaver’s shirt, contrary to what he claims in his interview.


Hypothesis 2

Copenhaver’s left arm is grazed, and the bullet then impacts the upper corner of the bleachers. A suppressed shot is fired later, injuring Trump’s ear.


My evaluation

I would assign a 99% probability to Hypothesis 1, and only 1% to Hypothesis 2.

When analyzing the footage frame by frame, at the moment of the first shot, there is no visible movement or tearing on Copenhaver’s left sleeve. If he had truly been grazed, we would expect to see clear sleeve motion or damage to the fabric.

Shot-1

Some might argue that the TMZ video was doctored. However, a much stronger argument lies in examining his behavior. When someone is grazed by a bullet, the immediate instinctive reaction is to cover the wound with the other hand. This is exactly what David Dutch did: as soon as he was hit by shot 2, he immediately covered the spot with his hand.

In Copenhaver’s case, after his initial acoustic reaction of raising his left arm, he does not exhibit behavior consistent with having been grazed. I even asked AI to confirm this, and it agreed that the typical reaction would indeed be to instinctively protect the wound.



Timing inconsistency in Hypothesis 2

Another critical flaw in Hypothesis 2 is the precise timing. Trump is shot exactly as he says the word “happened,” specifically on the “n.” This is also the exact moment when the bullet impacts the bleachers, as verified in multiple videos.

This makes it impossible to claim that Trump’s ear, Copenhaver’s arm, and the bleachers were all hit by the same shot. They are simply not aligned on the same trajectory.


Conclusion

I believe that the first shot hit Trump’s ear and then continued on to strike the bleachers. Copenhaver was startled by the sound and reacted by raising his left arm.

I am convinced that Copenhaver was actually shot twice during the series of shots numbered 4–8, which I believe originated from ARG 4 or ARG 2 (the two-story building).

This would also imply that there were not many shots left for Crooks, suggesting that shot 9 may have come from him, if any.

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Tomorrow, it will be one year since the Butler assassination attempt on President Trump. Over the past weeks, we have worked very hard and uncovered a great deal of new information. This is probably my last version of how I believe the shots were fired, based entirely on the information and documents shared within this forum.

Needless to say, Kash Patel and Dan Bongino now have more than enough information to initiate an investigation.

Apparently John Cullen got a much higher quality picture of the bullet hole in the hydraulic pipe back in February or earlier. As smart as he is in some ways, he doesn’t seem to understand that unhinged insults and blocking supporters at the slightest hint of non-agreement don’t make for one being popular.

He’s kind of upset that Grant Stinchfield and Real America’s Voice are getting a lot more attention than his scoop. He’s only got himself to blame - I had supported him on and off, but he blocked me on X when I said something that wasn’t even meant to be critical, and he’s never unblocked me.

This is the same photo that’s on the Stinchfield show, but it’s MUCH higher resolution:

https://x.com/I_Am_JohnCullen/status/1891908060626420128/photo/1

Not many people have 2K monitors that pivot, and are obsessed enough to swivel the monitor and capture it, so here you go:

That is cropped from the native resolution of the photo.

I wonder what’s causing the reflective line on the inner surface of the pipe?

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The FBI must have found the bullet in the pipe if it didn’t come out.

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OK, i have been following the Diddy and Epstein trials. I don`t think the Epstein files are ever going to be released. What are they going to say next, Epstein never existed. There are some interesting names on that list, a well known actor etc.

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John Cullen has blocked you on X as well, join the club.

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I investigated this myself a long time ago. It was not the machine itself, or the hole that mattered. It was the direction of the spray of oil to work out the trajectory of the bullet. I spent weeks on this trying to find the shooter. I found him hiding in a tree, which is located between the watertower and the machine itself. It was a surpressed shot fired simultanously with audio shot 2.

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I haven’t tried them in Edge browser in Windows 11.
Does this version play?

Isn’t the ‘reflective line’ hardware or plumbing inside the tank?
Why do the outer edges of aluminum fold out, like an exit wound?
(maybe the bullet pierced aluminum, hit steel, and bounced back out)

Patel and Bongino also have pictures of a bald shooter.

You’re joking!
To enhance your joke, Copenhaver told the Feldman brothers that the 1st shot hit his arm.

Does this one play?
TMZ may have to keep working on their faking:

A frame with Photoshop7.0 coloring, maybe overdone.
Can you see a guy with his fist raised?