So It's Back To First Principles (Part 2)

I have added two filters to the picture and we can clearly see red spots most likely splatter on this persons shirt

In my analysis, I initially mentioned that the shot hit Corey on the left side of his head. I have since redacted that statement because, as you correctly pointed out, the shot passed through his head, creating both an entry and an exit wound.

The ER doctor’s video was very interesting. He points to the entry wound on the right side, which makes more sense, since splatter comes from the exit wound — in this case, in the direction of the man wearing the green shirt.

Another important detail he mentions is that Corey was lifted up onto the bench. Counting the benches from the top, Corey is lying on the fifth bench. Since they lifted him up, this confirms the exact position where he was standing durin the shots, wich is according to the estimated positoin in our analysis.

All the evidence is coming together to indicate that shot 3 was the one that hit Corey.

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I’d like to ask you to put those people on the aerial photo. This is my rough estimation.

I’m not sure if it is entry or exit. (See thermal images below.)

You can see the peaks of the flags:

Night vision blood splatter:






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Of course a skull hit is a little different.

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Welcome back on the board.

I found higher resolution than 1080 footages.

(I didn’t try the 5D cinema yet. Allegedly they shake your chair and you got some rain dropps on your head.)

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I looked at the Slick Hick video with the new monitor.

Here’s the last frame where I believe Mr. Comperatore is alive:

I don’t really want to show the next frame, but Mr. Comperatore does NOT look OK in that one. The audio sounds like it lines up with shot 5, but the audio is notoriously unreliable. It’s probably best to synchronize using visual cues, like movements of people on the stage.

One possibly interesting thing I found while looking at the sniper team: they disappear from view 8 seconds after shots started:

Did they duck, is it due to the spray from the hydraulic line (I notice other details are obscured as well), or something else?

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Hi Sonja,

Welcome back.

I just finished analyzing the video you provided and was able to find contradictory evidence showing that shot 3 hits Corey Comparatore.

Corey-shot-4-8

We finally have a clear video showing the moment Corey was struck and how his cap flies away. Therefore, it seems that Corey is actually shot during the valley sequence, shots 4–8.

Since we had been focused on shots 4–8 in conjunction with Copenhaver, we never analyzed the line between Crooks and Corey Comparatore. Looking at it in detail, Corey is also directly in line between Crooks and the impacts in the banners.

This sets back our “Sudoku fields” quite a bit, and we’ll need to erase some of our earlier conclusions. However, one thing seems to add up: the missing impact in shots 4–8 could be due to Corey Comparatore.

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You confirm what I wrote in my message of August 3:

I think that audio and video are synchronized in this footage surely better than in the Comperatore’s phone which shows a 2.3 s time gap between shots 3 and 4 instead of 2.8 s.

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Well, as I remember correctly, a few months ago @rob-banks already mentioned their disappearance.

Meanwhile watching a playlist:

Thomas Crooks advertises for Hyundai

Thomas Crooks tire speech

Thomas Crooks 3D printing

Thomas Crooks introduction

0:12 for everyday use then I have the car for
0:14 you the 2022
0:17 Hyundai Elantre is a midsize sedan with
0:20 everything you could want it has a
0:23 featurerich infotainment system with a
0:26 comfortable and spacious interior
0:28 excellent safety ratings and top of its
0:31 class reliability and best of all it’s
0:34 competitively priced with great gas
0:37 mileage and great warranties
0:41 the TW 2022 Elantre comes equipped with
0:45 some of the latest technology in it is
0:48 compatible with both Apple CarPlay and
0:51 Android Auto allowing you to connect
0:53 your phone tablet or other device to the
0:56 car it is Wi-Fi capable and features um
1:01 voice recognition software that allows
1:03 users to manage the climate and other
1:06 controls
1:08 it features a spacious and comfortable
1:11 interior that comes equipped with dual
1:13 climate controls this allows both the
1:16 driver and passenger to independently
1:19 control the temperature of their side of
1:21 the car it also comes with loads of
1:25 cargo space dory and Drew of Car and
1:28 Driver stated that there’s enough room
1:30 in the trunk to fit six carry-on
1:33 suitcases
1:35 plenty of room for any luggage you might
1:37 need to bring with you
1:40 reliability and safety are top concerns
1:44 when selecting a new vehicle
1:47 the 2022 Hyundai Elantre got a five-star
1:51 safety rating from the National Highway
1:53 Traffic Safety Administration and comes
1:56 equipped with uh lane departure and
2:00 forward collision warning systems
2:03 it is also an extremely reliable vehicle
2:07 repairpow.com
2:09 is a website that monitors the
2:11 maintenance and repair cost of pretty
2:14 much all vehicles on the road today
2:17 according to them the Elantra
2:20 um receives a four and a half out of
2:22 five star reliability rating with
2:25 average yearly maintenance cost of $452
2:30 as compared to $526
2:33 which is the average for all cars
2:37 best of all you can get all of this
2:40 without breaking the bank the MSRP of
2:43 the Hyundai Elantre is $21,245
2:48 placing it below its primary competitors
2:51 like the Honda Civic or the to Toyota
2:54 Corolla
2:57 on top of this it also has great gas
3:01 mileage we all know how much the price
3:04 of gas has gone up in the last few years
3:06 so it will be a relief to know that
3:08 according to EPA estimates the Hyundai
3:11 Elantre gets up to 33 miles per gallon
3:14 in the city and up to 43 miles per
3:16 gallon on the highway there’s also a
3:19 hybrid version that can get up to 55
3:22 miles per gallon
3:25 to top it off Hyundai comes with a
3:29 10-year or 100,000mi
3:31 powertrain limited warranty and a
3:34 three-year complimentary maintenance
3:37 warranty according to car driver
3:42 as I’ve shown you in this advertisement
3:46 the Hyundai Elantre comes with a um high
3:52 tech and comfortable interior excellent
3:55 safety and reliability ratings
3:59 and competitive pricing and great
4:02 warranties
4:03 there are many options on the market
4:06 today for a midsize sedan but none can
4:09 match the quality and feature set
4:12 offered in this car clearly the 2022
4:16 Hyundai Elantre should be at the top of
4:19 the list for any new car buyer

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I just watched the video from Comperatore’s phone again and not only is there only 2.32s between shots 3 and 4 instead of 2.78s (difference of 0.46s corresponding to 11 frames possibly deleted) but when I look at it frame by frame there are only 23 frames instead of 24 between 1:23 and 1:24 and frames 2 and 3 are identical.

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There is also a 60 Hz signal added from 1:21:45 to about 1:25:45.

Well, the Bayesian inference works this way, we always need to update our predictions based on new information. However, this is like a game of shuffled cards. The order of evidences we achieve is not necessarily natural. I wonder if we change that order, would we get the same result?

Oh, I asked chatgpt:

Reframed Version:
“Bayesian inference works by continuously updating our predictions based on new information. However, it sometimes feels like we’re dealing with a shuffled deck — the order in which evidence arrives can seem arbitrary or disconnected from any natural sequence. This makes me wonder: if we re-ordered the same pieces of evidence, would we end up with the same posterior belief? How sensitive is Bayesian updating to the sequence in which data is presented?”

A few notes:

  • The “shuffled deck” analogy is retained but recontextualized — no reference to actual card games, just the concept of random order.
  • You’re touching on a real and interesting point: order-independence in Bayesian updating. Under standard conditions (i.i.d. data, proper priors), Bayesian inference is order-invariant — that is, the posterior doesn’t depend on the order in which data points are processed.
  • But in practical implementations (e.g., streaming data, approximate inference methods), order can matter, especially when priors or likelihoods are updated incrementally and numerically.

If you’re posting this in a technical forum or blog, I can help you expand it into a fuller explanation or discussion starter.

+EDIT:

Ah, got it — you did mean a card game, as an analogy for how evidence arrives in a seemingly random or arbitrary order. That makes much more sense now.

In that case, your analogy is quite apt — getting cards dealt randomly is a good metaphor for how data or evidence can come in unpredictable sequences. You just want to clarify that you’re using a card game metaphor, not describing a literal one. Here’s a refined version of your original thought with that intention in mind:

Refined version with card game metaphor:

“Bayesian inference works by updating our beliefs as new information comes in. But it’s a bit like being dealt cards in a game — the evidence arrives in a random order, not necessarily in a way that reflects any natural progression. It makes me wonder: if we reshuffled the order in which we received the same pieces of evidence, would our final conclusions still be the same?”

Optional follow-up (if you want to add more depth):

“Mathematically, Bayesian updating is order-invariant under ideal conditions. But in real-world scenarios, especially with approximations or non-i.i.d. data, the sequence of observations might influence the result more than we expect.”

I didn’t succeed to download Slick Hick’s video using Grab & Watch or other utilities like that. Please tell me how did you proceed to download this video.

As I mentioned before, this is too short video and social media platforms take it as a short one. Even if it was landscape, they convert into portrait and re-encoding. Damn.

From other hand, cheap phones cannot deal with high rate of frame changes. Either they make fragmentation or drop some frames.

chatgpt:

  1. As I mentioned before, the video is very short, and platforms often treat such clips differently. On social media, even if the original is landscape, the platform may convert it to portrait and re-encode it automatically. This re-encoding process can affect frame rate, timing, and even introduce artifacts.
  2. Also, keep in mind that lower-end or older phones often struggle with capturing fast motion or maintaining consistent frame rates. When there’s a high rate of scene change or motion, the device may either fragment the video or drop frames entirely to keep up. That could explain why you see only 23 frames instead of 24 in a one-second span, and why some frames (like 2 and 3) appear to be identical — possibly due to frame duplication or buffering delay.

Exactly — and that’s a key point worth highlighting: while some people might suspect intentional tampering, these kinds of frame irregularities can (and often do) occur naturally due to technical limitations or platform interference, without any malicious intent.

Here’s a revised version of your response that acknowledges both perspectives but keeps it grounded and fair:

You’re right to notice those frame discrepancies — things like fewer frames between timecodes or duplicated frames can definitely raise questions. But unfortunately, these issues often happen for purely technical reasons, not necessarily because of intentional tampering.

  • As I mentioned before, the video is very short, and social media platforms tend to treat such clips differently. They often re-encode them — sometimes even changing orientation from landscape to portrait — and that process can mess with frame rates or remove frames altogether.

  • On top of that, cheaper or older phones often can’t handle rapid scene changes or movement very well. When there’s a lot going on, they might drop frames, duplicate them, or create small glitches just to keep recording stable.

So while I understand why some might suspect intentional editing, it’s also very plausible that these are just technical artifacts — and unfortunately, they can happen to anyone, not because someone wanted to distract or manipulate.

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We should synchronize the “schedule” of that cap flight to some other event.

Ok but this doesn’t explain the 0.46 s missing between shots 3 and 4.

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Reading older posts:

By the way, it is NOT Jim Copenhaver who recording:

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Dang, those videos were pathetic. With the Hyundai ad in particular he’s just woodenly reading brochure highlights. He had an Elantra, didn’t he? He couldn’t even add any personal thoughts like how it handles or how something is a nice touch.

When I was in college WAAAAAAY back in the 80s, everyone had to take a personal communications class to get a bachelors degree in the college of liberal arts and sciences. This wouldn’t have gotten a good grade at ALL… But maybe with 40 years of grade inflation…

I must have missed that. Was there any discussion or consensus on what happened?

You mean it wasn’t Copenhaver recording your pictured view from northeast of Trump(and lakeshore trees southwest beyond Trump).
But could Fox’s well known ‘Copenhaver’ recording have been from Dutch’s beige/light brown phone?

I mean there is a famous video when the dude appear on the roof behind Trump. They said it came from Copenhaver.

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