I cannot state any of these for sure, but I can assign some probability/credential to them from gut.
I’ve seen a software several years ago. Experts could give probabilities to events. And the events have been arranged in a tree graph, as reason-consequence relation.
As I remember, a chief sniper (from Israel) said something like this:
To be a professional you need 12 month training,
not just shoot once a week and peel potatoes on the other days.
I used RSBN (10+ hour video) and YT video of the original Elvis singing video. RSBN video has v/a sync problems, that’s ok bc all info when Elvis ended the song is in video, not in audio. For 1st shot I couldn’t rely on sound, so I used Trump’s head movement based on other videos. In RSBN video 1st shot is 33 but I have 1 cop dashcam and 1 bodycam (WBC2-122110) perfectly synced to Dave’s audio telling 1st shot is heard at the end of 31, but I used 32 for my calculations.
I had a different video for Crooks walking in front of bldg6 and I now realised I started from where Crooks appears from right side of the jumbotron leg. But he appears already on the left side. Missed it bc my video shows the left side part, then cuts to a guy interviewed and returns when Crooks appears from the right side of the jumbotron leg. So, I deduct 4sec from my time for when Crooks appear. My final timing for first spot Crooks is 17:06:51. Here’s my video on what I based my calculations, you see that where mine messes the starting time, yours doesn’t show the camera panning the audience and then returning back to Crooks. That gives you wrong time when Crooks is last seen. To get the right timing we need each other’s YT videos. Also, there’s another video (i have it) which has 4 more seconds showing Crooks turning and walking towards west at the end. To avoid this post becoming too long I’ll stop here but am willing to break down every step for my conclusions if you want. So, here’s my timings with the 4s deducted at the start that I missed: 17:06:51-17:07:23
So, here’s the YT video I used for my calc. Pls, take that camera panning the audience into account:
Great work, thanks for sharing. That’s a helpful ressource for everybody who wants to get a combined overview on the timeline.
Some suggestion and inputs.
for page 1: In order to avoid confusion, I’d number all the roofs as in the AAR. Maybe make a reference to the AGR numbering, building 1 (AAR) = building 6 (AGR).
Furthermore it might be a good idea to point out the time differences between the body-/dashcam footage and the real time. For example:
dashcam M500-010482 timestamp is 1 second slow
bodycam BWC2-122104 timestamp is 12 seconds fast
bodycam Beaver Co ESU timestamp is 1 minute 39 seconds fast
In the next sentence they say “Then Mr. Crooks drove to the rally site, reaching the show grounds by around 10 a.m. and staying about 70 minutes — even as the local countersnipers were arriving.”
Unless Crooks was speeding hard, it took him a good hour to get to the Butler Farm show grounds (keep in mind there were road constructions going on in the Butler area). So here the NYT timeline has some issues or the term around in “bought it around” and “by around” has been used very generously.
Yep, the ladder didn’t have any relevance in the events. But it shows he was at the Bethel Park Home Depot at the time stated on the receipt (assuming he himself bought the ladder and the receipt was really found in his pockets). So there is some relevance when it comes to the timeline.
I think the purchase of the ladder was just for a last moment - if all else fails - option to access the roof.
I did find it mighty strange that one of the first things I heard after the shooting was the release of the info that Crooks had purchased a 5 or 6 ft ladder. Then we saw images released of that 10 ft ladder leaning against the AGR bldg as if it were to suggest that was the ladder but obviously it wasnt.
How that tidbit of info got released so quickly? Your guess is as good as mine.
I concur. The ladder is irrelevant in the shooting event since it wasnt even at the scene.
I think it can be best described as just more info that is meant to flood the citizenry to lead them down rabbit holes.
He supposedly drove the Sonata to the event. Then we hear about a bike which turned out to not be connected to Crooks.
More pertinent is the fact of the white van with Arizona plates that was towed off. A witness described that law enforcement ‘jumped back’ when the rear door was opened.
The white van has faded into obscurity - or so it seems.
Agree on the ladder part, also the part that he went to the gunshop to buy 50 rounds of ammo is somehow strange. Especially when we know now how often he went shooting at the gun club. One would assume he had plenty of ammo ready at home, why buy it “last minute” on the way to a planned shooting? By the way, did we hear anything about this ammo from the news ever since?
Concerning the white Van I made quite a few posts. Still don’t think it has anything to do with the events. And that the cops “jumped back” is quite a bit exaggerated in my eyes (eywitnesses sometimes do that when in front of a camera). What I could see in the tiktok video was them just taking a step back when the one guy opens the front door. But it’s truely odd we never heared about this Van.
The Hyundai Sonata he allegedly drove, might well have been the Hyundai Elantra parked just across the street at the northern AGR entrance. But so far there’s no evidence on that.
After some reflection, maybe my statement that the ‘ladder is irrelevant’ is a bit too broad.
It is relevant in the fact for the authorities to paint a picture of Crooks that he had all intentions of accessing the roof - despite the fact that the ladder was not used & could not be used due to it being too short in length.
The release of the info on Crooks supposedly purchasing a ladder was for the satisfaction of the general population that bolstered the idea that Crooks indeed was the gunman.
I redid my calculations after reading your message and to make a long story short, the WTAE video I have linked at the bottom starts according to my calcs at 17:06:46,449, thus supporting your timeline.
Updated my timeline document per these calculations. As per this timeline, Crooks shows up at 17:06:51, almost 17:06:52. He turns around at 17:06:25 and walks towards the west.
That’s what we have to find out. Was he the lone gunman as presented?
If he wasn’t, who helped him to do it? If it wasn’t him at all, who did it instead?
Yeah, lots of info got released about Crooks within 24hrs.
Purchase of 50 rounds? And also the ladder?
The authorities were sure fast to release that to the general public…
But in all reality, how many rounds were on his body & backpack? How many mags? Have we heard? I certainly cant recall hearing that info.
I’m afraid all the backstory will be forever lost - just like his corpse - turned into ashes.
The only chance is if Trump can actually gain the White House - but even then it will be a slow journey.